Ceetar

batmagadanleadoff wrote: LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Whoever arranged for the Mets to pitch so well, play so hard, and luck into so many wins in the first half... congrats. You got me. You can fool Pythagoras some of the time.... If they had played to their Pythagoras record in June, things would probably be looking much better right now. I think they played 3 under it.

TransMonk wrote: How is there a situation that we would pursue Maddon? Per Cot's, he signed a 3 year extention ('13-'15) with TB earlier this year. trade for him? Vic Sage wrote: there's NO situation, Monk. It's just so much hogwash. Now if there's a possibility of a WILPON WATCH, sign me up! Lets get a Green Bay situation up in Willets Point, baby! god no, have you seen some of these Mets fans? Don't want them pretending they're owners.

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: It was Howie discussing Apodaca going to Boston to be reunited with Bobby V. I'm all for buying any 86 Met a drink but I'm tired of them getting jobs with the team. Wally to me seems like a higher-strung, less-self-aware version of Terry. I think not hiring Backman already illustrates boldness by Sandy. Let's do something whacky and raid the Rays for Joe Maddon. And 'firing' Mookie. I agree with that Backman/Terry point though. I like the self-awareness in Terry. I know it's hard to evaluate this stuff generally though, so if the manager is not making me scream in frustrating constantly, I'm usually fine with assuming the Mets know better than me if he needs to be replaced. Maddon's interesting though. I think I'd rather find the next Maddon though. Someone new/different? Ventura looked pretty good out of nowhere, that would've been fun. I think Howie was mentionion how Miguel Tejada wanted to manager immediately. That'd be another interesting one.

Vic Sage wrote: scapegoating the manager (and believe me, i have no love for TC) is naught but a silly distraction at this point. try scapegoating the OF, the bullpen, the catcher and 1bman. Better yet, try replacing them. Or as Ceetar would call turning over half the roster, lets make "adjustments". There's a balance between scapegoating the players and going with a grass is always greener approach where we assume the guy we don't have isn't going to come here and fail. Thole and Davis for instance, may very well outperform whoever they get next year. My point about adjustments is that some of these guys need to stay, because they might succeed. You can't just replace them because you've decided they suck and won't get better. Some of them need to be replaced, others will be fine. grow/adjust/etc. Making the right choices on which is which is where the Mets can improve better than the other teams that are doing the same thing.

batmagadanleadoff wrote: So what about the 18 teams that have better records than the Mets? Can't they make the same adjustments to improve? You remind me of a friend I had who would always return from Atlantic City having won big at the casinos. He never lost. So he said. Of course, he calculated his winnings by counting his two big winning hands doubling down at Blackjack but wouldn't count the 30 straight losing hands in between that he suffered. You remind me of that guy. Because you'll remember the dramatic game winning bomb Torres or Valdy hit but ignore the thirty or forty outs they make for every homer they hit. Then you'll extrapolate next year's projection for these guys based only on their highs. the same adjustments? no, two teams can't sign the same players. I'm not saying it's simply "Plug in this guy" or that it'll be easy. The Mets leapfrog some of those 18 teams by finding the better adjustment which will come from evaluation and budget and all sorts of things. Doesn't mean they will find the better player, just that they can. Don't compare me to that guy. You can't only look at highs, but there's some calculation for floor too. Torres for instance, has been basically league average this year by OPS+. (Actually, he's dropped to 93. was 97 last time i looked) the chances Torres is somewhat capable are pretty good. (career 97 OPS+) he's older but not that old. So while you don't pencil him for 2010 Torres, you know he's probably not going to kill you. Valdespin might make a good lefty pinch-hitter guy, but I'm not comfortable expecting him to be more than that. I think what's killed the Mets more than anything this year is that when some of these guys struggle, they _really_ struggle. Torres too. Duda. Nieuwenhuis. Davis. the left fielder. It's so feast or famine that it feels like when one guy does real well, there's someone else balancing him out by not hitting anything. So a couple of adjustments. get a good outfielder. replace some of these marginal guys that go into month long slumps maybe in favor of a Torres like guy that's going to at least get on base. Murphy seems like this guy to me, even when he's slumping is good enough with the bat usually to slap a single here or there. though you'd like him to walk more.

Mets � Willets Point wrote: Yeah, it's kind of like the states that indict lots of politicians for bribery, et al and everyone says "that state is so corrupt!" I'm more suspicious of the states where no politicians are caught. Those states have bigger bribes. i.e. better suppliers, better masking agents, better drugs. So the richer states/teams/players?

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Ceetar wrote: But the thing is, we have a year more of data (with some yet to come) in which to make the assessment on which of those players are average, which are good [yada yada yada] ... So now the Mets make a couple of adjustments to roster, but acquiring players to replace the ones they've determined not to be part of the solution. And why wouldn't that hold true for every other struggling team? Hey! Maybe next season, there's so much improvement going around that the league sets some sort of record when every team finishes over .500. You know what? I think the Mets are gonna need to win 105 games in 2013 just to qualify for the one game WC eliminator. Of course it's true for every other team! But the Mets have a little higher of a base than the Astros..with Wright and Dickey, et al. And even if they never really shake this off again, they're a 75 win team not a 65 win one. they don't need quite as many adjustments as the Royals. Small changes yield big results sometimes. Just another solidly good hitter, let's say an outfielder, would do amazing things for the overall offense for instance. Particularly if he can hit home runs.

Gwreck wrote: Ceetar wrote: Maybe a couple of adjustments and they don't sink next year. If by "a couple of adjustments" you mean "a couple of better players." The problem with your theory is that it depends on average players all having a good year all at the same time. I don't think that's a responsible strategy if you want to be in meaningful contention. That's always going to be the case in some extent though. You get guys you think are going to have good years, and some of them don't. But I think that describes _this_ season pretty well. The Mets had a lot of players that may just be average but might've been more. Duda, Torres (dreaming on 2010, even though he's not been bad), Davis, Murphy, Tejada, Thole, Gee, Niese, Santana (via him being injured and us having to use an average starter) But the thing is, we have a year more of data (with some yet to come) in which to make the assessment on which of those players are average, which are good, and which are average capable of having good years. Or average that had a good year that you can convince someone else is a good player. So now the Mets make a couple of adjustments to roster, but acquiring players to replace the ones they've determined not to be part of the solution. Some of those are going to be average guys we're hoping show something, but it should raise the chances of more guys having good years.

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: This'll make Ceetar happy but I think if someone has to be sacrificed it'll be Warthen, mianly because he's pre-Sandy and they can hang the bullpen on him if they want, as wrong as that probably is. Bob Apodaca is looking for a job, he resigned from the Rockies recently, but I'd imagine the Mets try and promote whomever they deem most responsible for bringing along the Harveys and Wheelers and Mejias etc. My minds a blur, but it was either Howie or Gary that basically campaigned for Apodaca the other day. Technically he was suggesting Boston, but.. You've got (hopefully..?) a bunch of young arms coming up soon. You'd want to have the 'future' pitching coach in place earlier than the 'future' manager I'd think, as to nurture those arms. I think it's pretty hard to make a case Warthen's done anything special with nurturing new callups.

you've got the demoted/acquired bit backwards, fwiw. I thought Johnson was deemed to have options? no? some of these rules can be confusing.

and I know this thread is about concern, but I'm not really any more concerned about the future than I have been. Things don't seem particularly stacked against the Mets to me is all.

TransMonk wrote: The Mets have sucked for four years now. However unlikely it seems to Ceets, I don't see a terribly bright light at the end of this tunnel. Yup, anything's possible, ya gotta believe, it ain't over 'til it's over, yyybbb. The next year or two (at least) still looks pretty trying to me. David Wright, R.A. Dickey, Ruben Tejada, Matt Harvey, Zach Wheeler*, Ike Davis, Jon Niese etc. They also played pretty good for the first four halves of those seasons, so why think it's the second half that's going to shine through going forward? Maybe a couple of adjustments and they don't sink next year.

Centerfield wrote: I get this bad feeling that the Mets are going to suck for a long time. seems unlikely.

Edgy DC wrote: Ooh! Ooh! I do! question the 2009 one too of course.

bmfc1 wrote: I'm listed as the thread's author but I wish I thought of something as clever as supplied by someone else. If an NL team wins the World Series in 7 games, will the championship be questioned as the NL team had home-field advantage in part because of the game play of a player that used performance enhancing drugs? no one questions the Yankees roided up champions of the late nineties.

Swan Swan H wrote: Edgy DC wrote: Rockville Centre. Baldwin Freeport Merrick Bellmore Wantagh Seaford Massapequa Massapequa Park Amityville Copaigue Lindenhurst and Babylon stand clear of the closing doors please.

oh good, Manny Acosta. *shudders*

Frayed Knot wrote: Miguel Cairo has been getting paid to play baseball for 22 years now. And if told back when he was a Met that he was going to continue to pull down a major league salary for at least another 7 years I don't think any of us would have believed it. career 77 OPS+ 5.9 career WAR.

confirmation bias, but Warthen's mound visit resulted in a walk. I don't trust what he tells them.

Zvon wrote: WHEW! Jeeze, what do ya do w/Parnell? I don't think I can watch him pitch anymore. bring him back for the 8th, is what I do. gotta use your best reliever for 2 in a tie game right? even with ..23? pitches.

Thole hit. He needs to get his OBP back up to like .340 for me to be happy with him again.

I was only half listening for obvious reasons. coworker I went to lunch with had it on. It was basically Kuroda-hate and no believe in Nova or Hughes.

check out Kelly's pet hedgehog, Oliver Rainbow Sparkles.

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I think maybe we'll find out Rob Johnson hurt himself or something, that might explain the timing. more likely, he's Rob Johnson.

Edgy DC wrote: You don't. You can try, but life is fraught with peril. You've got to move from risk aversion to risk management. The former is paralyzing. The latter is crucial. well yeah, but the best way to manage risk is option years, particularly ones based loosely on performance no? ;-)