Vic Sage
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Everything posted by Vic Sage
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different people have different levels of risk tolerence. But its not just about risk... its about risk/reward. If you agree that the reward of a healthy Harden is significant, greatly increasing our chances of post-season success, then you have to weigh that against the risk accordingly. we've just come to a different calculation on this analysis.
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83, i think you could disagree with Ira without calling him an idiot. Why don't you just stick to calling me a socialist?
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its too much if Harden implodes. But then again, anything would be too much if Harden implodes. But if he picks up where he left off, as a 24 year old dominating power pitcher, he becomes the ace we need to get over the hump. And if you can get such a guy without taking a single impact player from your major-league team, i think you do it. Humber has had multiple injuries. Milledge's stock is down. Heilman is a setup guy. Lets be real, folks. You don't get if you don't give. IF it don't hurt, you didn't do it right. Lets stop trying to rape another team and settle for a deal that helps both sides.
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Ted, your ignorance of Harden doesn't mean fruitcake to me.
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Harden's ERA+ of 123+ and 1.277 WHIP compares favorably with Willis' 120+ and 1.299. Of course Willis has 200 IP/30+ GS each of the last 3 seasons, and Harden has had only 1 full season so far, so his injury risk is considerable. But it is considerable for Humber, too. And Milledge hasn't proved anything yet. And Heilman is, so far, only successful as a setup guy. Since I don't think you could get Willis for that package, I'd be willing to get Harden for that.
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Milledge, Heilman + Humber 4 Harden? I'd do that in a heartbeat, because: 1) Harden is one of the top young starters in baseball, ready to be a real ace; 2) his injury history is what makes him risky, but its also what makes him available; 3) Humber's upside simply means he might one day approach what Harden already is, and his injury history is pretty significant, too; 4) Heilman is wasted in NY, where he's used neither a closer nor a starter, and is just one of a number of good setup men currently in the pen; 5) Milledge doesn't appear to be a significant part of the `07 team, and with the trade for Johnson, and the 2 young CF studs down on the farm, and his questionable attitude and work habits, he's become extremely expendable. yeah, sign me up for this one.
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and i'm fine with saving our chips for a major deal, if that ends up being Omar's strategy. but what i DON'T want us to do is go into the season with the current rotation because we insisted on staying at 5yr/$75m rather than go 6yrs/$100m on Zito. frankly, we'd be better off making the Harden trade AND signing Zito.
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yeah, but Boras doesn't get a commission on those revenue streams. Scotty will steer Zito to whoever offers the richest deal. Look, if there were a better pitcher available either as a FA or thru trade, i'd agree that outbidding Texas would be silly; or if we were looking to spend money elsewhere to make a big impact (like 2b or OF), I'd agree we shouldn't go hogwild for Zito. But at this point, Zito is the guy. It appears we're not prepared to make any other moves. We need a solid pitcher in our rotation if we expect to go to the WS, and right now i'm not sanguine about a single arm we've got pencilled in. Don't tell me we're a better team without his 200 IP/32 GS. So, if it takes an extra year and an extra $10-$20m (over 6 years) to sign him, i think we should. Or we can count on guys like Maine, Perez and Dave Williams (behind Glavine & El Duque) to carry us.
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Loretta, at 35, doesn't offer us anything more than Valentin. Lets save our chips for a significant upgrade to the rotation, rather than frittering away talent/$$ on marginal upgrades/backups to the #8 hitter.
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]Green worries me. He didn't look too good for us last year. Green was one of our better hitters in the post-season, but i'm not seeing much beyond a .280/15hr/65rbi lead-footed, iron-gloved player in a steady decline.
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] AAAA 2B with a little upside from Oakland. well, I seem to recall they have some fella named Scutaro who i wouldn't mind having back.
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]it's hard to say no, isn't it? well, lets see. NO! gee, that wasn't hard at all.
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Face it, Wolfie... we suck. Go Patriots!
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Boston about to sign Lugo, pending physical, for 4yr/$36m deal http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2687827 phew! that was a close one. good job dodging that one, Omar.
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this is what i predicted, and what i was afraid of. I said Lugo would get a Pierre-type deal (5yr/$40-45m) because he's more valuable to other teams as a SS, and we'd be stuck overpaying for him as a 2bman who isn't remarkablly better than (a) what we already have, or ( cheaper options still available. LF, if you want a guy for 2-3 years at under $5m/yr, it ain't gonna be Lugo.
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bee-you-tee-ful!
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that's fine. then we've got Valentin at 2b, and we could probably sign Belliard cheap.
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IF we can trade Green, Gotay and Bannister for Vidro + A-ball prospect (for example): - the platoon of Johnson and Chavez in RF is unlikely to be less productive than Green, at a fraction of the cost; - Vidro is backed up by Valentin, with Vidro's salary offset by trade of Green. whereas, if we sign Lugo: - he likely gets Juan Pierre type money (5yrs/$40-45m), hindering our effort to sign a frontline SPer, - he is not a sure thing to be signifcantly more productive than Valentin; - we still have to carry Green's declining bat/glove (and no place for Johnson or Milledge to get semi-regular ABs); and - we give up a draft choice now of course these scenarios have tons of assumptions, but depending on who we trade, i don't necessarily think Lugo is a better deal than Vidro. I just don't think Lugo is worth what he's likely to get in the current market, and we can fix 2b in other ways.
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Depending on what Nationals wanted for him, I'd take Vidro. He's a high injury risk, but a good player (much better than Lugo). And if he broke down, we'd still have Valentin to fill in.
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If we don't sign Lugo, maybe we could take a chance on a few young 2bmen like Ryan Raeburn (Tigers) and Tim Moss (Philly). Bring them in and see if they can beat out Easley, Gotay or whomever. Its not like we've got anything in our system. Also, I'd like to see if Eli Whiteside (baltimore) could beat out Castro as backup C. With the recent trades and FA signings, we might also want to take a look at a few young reliever prospects like Wells (cubs), D.Smith (braves) and Plummer (KC), or a few older guys like Grokiewicz (Toronto) and Bateman (SF).
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i agree that a better option than Valentin at 2b would be preferable, putting Jose on the bench as an all-purpose Utility/LHed PHer. But my point was that Lugo is more valuable as a SS for another team (since his hitting is more respectable as a SS than a 2bman) and if we're going to have to bid against those teams (not to mention give up a draft pick) to sign him, I'd rather sign Ronny Belliard, who is equally mediocre but is likely to cost 1/2 as much as Lugo at SS, and he won't cost us a pick. Heck, i'd prefer Loretta for 1 year (for less $ and no pick) to a multi-year deal for Lugo.
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Does anybody else think that Ira's rhetorical style is reminiscent of a heretofore former forumite? Doc, is that you?
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as i illustrated in another thread: name (age - (`06 OPS) / (career OPS) / (career OPS+) +Durham (35 - S) (.898) / (.797) / 106 +Aurilia (35 - R) (.867) / (.775) / 104 * Loretta (35 - R) (.706) / (.765) / 101 **Walker(33 - L) (.785) / (.786) / 98 +Valentin (37-S) (.820) / (.772) / 96 * Belliard (31 - R) (.725) / (.751) / 94 +Kennedy (30 - L) (.718) / (.730) / 92 **Lugo (30 - R) (.762) / (.742) / 92 +DeRosa (31 - R) (.812) / (.735) / 90 + signed * unsigned FA, not offered arbitration ** offered arbitration I don't see why Lugo (who can get a full-time gig as a SS) is worth as much to the Mets as a 2bman (especially a part-time 2b/utility), when he's not appreciably better than other 2bmen still on the market (for whom no draft choice need be surrendered, and who'd likely be cheaper), like Belliard and Loretta. Frankly, i don't see him as even much of an upgrade over Valentin who, even if he falls back to career averages, is likely to outhit him.
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As former MoFo-er THIRTEEN was almost always right, so is 83 almost always wrong. In fact, if i'm ever unsure about what position to take on any issue, 83 is my perfect reverse barometer. although i'd agree with 2 8-team divisions rather than 4 4-team divisions.
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Going down the "Baseball is dying" path (split)
Vic Sage replied to stevejrogers's topic in New York Mets Talk
]It is thought they can make more money in those sports that statement right there discredits this guy. Baseball is the only sport without a salary cap, and the high end salaries (not to mention greater length of career and relative lack of serious injuries), makes baseball a much better career choice than any other sport. While its true that black athletes have gravitated to basketball and, to a lesser extent, football, rather than baseball, that development has more to do with greater inner city access to those sports. And if your a 300 pound guy, your more likely to excel at football (or maybe as a center in basketball) than you are in baseball, which is more of a skill game than a game of pure athletic ability. baseball is a harder sport, not a less remunerative one.
