Vic Sage

you guys do know that Wright has a ripped stomach muscle that kept Zimmerman out for months last year, right? Also, at 3b in the NL there are these all-stars: Zimmerman,R - Was Ramirez,A - Mil Jones,C - Atl any or all of whom could get an A-S nod over Wright, as well as: Freeze,D - StL Walker, N - Pit Sandoval,P - SF any or all of whom could jump up to an A-S level. I think Wright is unlikely to get an A-S nod, at least based on performance. His former A-S status does give him an edge in voting but will mean little to MLB in selecting reserves. So unless he's voted in as a starter, i don't see it. Of course, if he has a great 1st half, that changes everything, but I just don't think that's likely, based on his recent seasons and his current physical condition.

it ain't gonna get much better. With a decent glove, good base-running instincts, and a positive clubhouse presence, nonetheless Bay's .250/15hr/70rbi/10sb line (while a slight improvement over last year) will remain an anchor dragging down the Met offense. We need more production from a LFer than that. When Mets fall out of contention early and Sandy wants to see more Captain Kirk, hopefully Bay gets relegated to the bench to prevent the option from vesting and we can divest ourselves of this bad deal with minimum machinations.

I'm suspicious of the odds for success when a team dips heavily into Free-Agency in an attempt to make themselves insta-contenders as opposed to teams who are looking for a few pieces to put themselves over the top. Look, the Marlins lost 90 games last year and, while one can claim they did so without Josh Johnson or a normal year from Hanley, just about any club can point to bad breaks from the previous year and therefore claim that they weren't really that bad and treat their imagined record as the base to improve from instead of the actual one. Usually that doesn't work. Instead, with a new stadium to fill and a quotable, Latin manager to lead them, they went for Reyes, Buehrle, and Bell as FAs and Zambrano via the trade [read: accept a bad contract] route in an attempt to make up ground all at once. Good luck. yeah, its unlikely to all come together, but there's enough talent there to consider them a contender. And diminishing the impact of losing key players is one thing... but Johnson and Ramirez were far and away their BEST and most important players. If they both come back and play as expected, they'll be in it. If they don't they won't.

oh, don't get me wrong. I'd have rather the wilpons lost the suit in overwhelming fashion, forcing them either into bankruptcy or a forced sale of the franchise. but don't minimize this outcome. They didn't just kick the can further down the street. They've not only bought themselves time, they agreed to an amount that could be completely offset by their own claims against madoff. Also, by quantifying and finalizing the obligation (so its not this unknown liability hanging over their heads), they've made further financing (including loans and minority sales) a more realistic possibility. Meanwhile, they'll be getting out from under the last regime's big money deals while surely preventing Alderson from entering into (or extending) any new ones. So all it will take to turn their current financial situation around is to eventually win more than they lose, which if you read this website, is an imminent possibility. At any rate, they've cut the payroll to a point where they are likely to at least breakeven and, if the kiddie brigade develops into any late season runs or post-season heroics, they'll be well into profitability.

I'm guessing that the Wilpons think that they can afford this hit. Otherwise, why settle? Sigh. see article: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-madoff-mets "He [Picard's representative] also said the amount the team owners could afford to pay was �one of the many factors� that were considered as the two sides negotiated a deal..." so yeah, an amount they could afford was apart of the negotiation. also: "It [the settlment] also creates the possibility that the owners could owe nothing if they can secure $162 million of the $178 million they are seeking in claims of their own against the Madoff estate." so it may cost them nothing in the long run, though its unlikely they'd recover their entire $178m claim. But whatever they have to pay, "the settlement gives the team breathing room because it does not require any money to be paid for at least three years." so they are out from under the Madoff debt for at least the next 3 years (and perhaps indefinitely) and, if they make $200m-$240m in their ownership sale (to cover current debts and recent operating losses), they should be in the clear and shouldn't have to operate as if they were in austerity mode during this period.

and some robots PLAY baseball... http://www.tv.com/shows/the-twilight-zone/the-mighty-casey-12619/ http://movies.netflix.com/WiPlayer?KID=k262993&TACID=&CREATIVE=n&SESSIONID=id_729849889&movieid=70174041&USERID=729849066

Wasn't really responding to the ongoing pitching discussion specifically, just throwing in some info to the thread in general which points out that their offense has been slipping for several years now and with it injured and aging they're going to need to rely on that pitching all the more. Yes, i'd agree they are more pitching reliant. With Utley out indefinitely and Howard out till June, they'd need a pitching staff the likes of Halladay, Lee and Hamels to make up the differ... oh, wait. They HAVE those guys. never mind.

[u:hanm9609]NL all-star 1bmen:[/u:hanm9609] * Joey Votto -- Best 1bman in the NL. * Lance Berkman -- borderline HOFer had a great year last year. If he's healthy, should be able to do it again. * Ryan Howard -- injured; out til June, but if he comes back strong at that point, he could well get another A-S nod, even just based on his rep and/or phillie phan ballot stuffing. Assuming Howard doesn't get an A-S nod because of his injury (which is not at all assured), I can see Iron Ike getting that A-S slot (since MLB is unlikely to take more than 3 1bmen), unless he gets beaten out by one these highly touted young players: * Yonder Alonso - Cuban rookie starting for SD * Freddie Freeman - good looking 2nd year Brave * Paul Goldschmidt - rookie starting in AZ * Anthony Rizzo - Cubs rookie likely to start in AAA but could get call-up * Gaby Sanchez - marlins decent 3rd-year man I'd say if Ike has the type of 1st half we can safely project, and Ryan Howard is sidelined for much of the first half, then he has a 50/50 shot at an A-S bid.

1 bad (partial) year after 1 very good year does not indicate a downward trend. If he sucks again THIS year, then that would indicate a trend. 1 year is not a trend.

Heyward is 22, with 2 seasons in the majors... 1 good, 1 bad. He has a great chance to develop. He's neither a finished product nor a player burdened by some kind of downward trend. I would take his future over that of Duda right now.

I see the Marlins offenses as boom or bust this year, largely predicated on their new 3bman's ability to return to form at a new position. The lineup has alot of speed, with Reyes/bonafacio/Ramirez at the top of the order, and enough power with Ramirez/Stanton/Logan/Sanchez in the middle, to score runs in bunches, but may be hamstrung by a pouty Ramirez and/or a low OB%. Their rotation is similarly boom/bust with a great SP in Josh Johnson fronting a talented staff with the solid Buehrle, erratic Nolasco, FA-to-be Anibel Sanchez and dangerous & flaky Carlos Zambrano, any of whom could win a cy young or totally implode. If Johnson is hurt again, they'll likely collapse. The pen is built on Heath Bell, who has alot of mileage on him and has started to show signs of wear. But Mujica is an underrated setup guy, and young guns Webb, Dunn and Cishek have shown some good signs. all in all, this is the toughest team in the division to project; they could win it going away or fight the Mets and Braves for the cellar. I'll split the difference and call them 3rd, with a shot at the 2nd WC.

They have a CFer who gives you 50+ SBs every year at the top of the lineup, with power in the middle from Heyward, McCann, Uggla and Freeman, and Larry can still swing it, too. they have holes (Prado is a UT guy starting in LF, and they'll have a rookie at SS), but who doesn't? If the rookie SS (either Pastornicky or Simmons) gives them anything, and if Larry stays healthy enough to give them some quality ABs, the offense should be decent, if not great (good power/low OB%). But if Heyward and Freeman continue to develop, they could be more than that. As for pitching, Hudson is hurt, and Hanson, Jurjjens and Beachy are no great shakes. This staff won't be able to pick up the slack for a middling lineup (and vice-versa), especially if the Kimbrel-Venters bullpen combo can't repeat last year's tremendous performance. And pens are notoriously inconsistent, even (if not especially) young ones. I think they'll end up fighting the Mets for the basement. whoever gets more question marks answered in the affirmative finishes 4th.

Definitely a team on the rise. Even if only some things to break right they're going to improve, and if everything breaks right look out! -- although I tend to think next season is more likely to be their time than this one. - Strasberg + Zimmermann are healthy and ready to head the rotation - although they're supposedly going to stick to a strict 160 IP limit for Strasberg regardless of where he/they are when it's reached. - They'll be a bit shy in the OF at least until Harper gets there. I'd be shocked if he starts the season but even moreso if he's not up by June and, once here, nobody believes he's going to be one of the ones who'll miss. - Their middle IF (Desmond & Espinosa) will still be light on OBP and erratic in the field (esp Desmond) but are decent in other areas and are both are young and improving - Should be strong at catcher, 3rd & pen - Questions: Bernadina in the OF (similar to Desmond/Espinosa), LaRoche at 1st, Morse repeating, Werth NOT repeating, who's in CF? - Trades have robbed their system of most immediate internal help beyond Harper This. Plus, lets not pretend Morse came out of nowhere. His step up in class was predicated on similar success the year before playing 1/2 season for the Nats. He's always hit for a solid average and has finally developed significant power as he approached his late 20s. While his low BB/ high K rates indicate a guy that can be pitched to, he's also a guy that can punish mistakes and help a lineup. I don't see the case for assuming a regression. As for LaRoche, if he's healthy and ready to play, then his career avg of .270/25hr with a good glove at 1b seems solid enough. Zimmerman came back well from the injury and is in line to give the Nat another 290/25hr GG-caliber season at 3b. The kids up the middle, Desmond and Espinosa, are erratic but with huge upside, offering a power/speed combo at both positions. Along with Morse in the OF, Werth is not really a CFer and he may not be the hitter he was in the Phillies bandbox, more likely to replicate his low average/high BB/decent power numbers from his earlier LA days now. But that's not nothing (despite that they're overpaying for it). And Harper is the bluest of chips, waiting to be cashed midseason. And Ramos is an above-avg catcher; not top-tier but a decent average, with power, and solid glove. So i think the offense has big upside... But not as big the pitching. With Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann and Edwin Jackson, they are deep and solid, and Wang probably pushes Lannan out of the rotation entirely (Lannan would be on of our top starters), With Storen and Clippard anchoring the pen, this rotation will have great support. I see the Nats chasing the Phils all season, with a good shot at a WC at least.

Braun hired lawyers to get the suspension overturned. They argued whatever evidence was available to them to make their case. And in doing so, they prevailed. But now he's got a problem. The technical argument, while successful before a judge, was unpersuasive to both the fans (which he may or may not really care about) and the media (who will be the ultimate arbiters of both the historical record and the HOF voting -- which he certainly cares about). So now begins a PR counter-offensive that will eventually cover the waterfront with rationales -- the test was tainted; the procedure was tainted; the result was false; he's an innocent fall guy for a hypocritical system; he tested positive, but its not what you think! It'll be like that classic scene with Belushi in BLUES BROTHERS, where Carrie Fisher is about to blow him away for being a two-timing cad and he comes up with every excuse in the book, ultimately winning her over with his adorable eyebrows. And even if none of the excuses stick, he'll always be able to point to the overturning of the suspension as the anti-smoking gun... "you can't keep me out, i was found not guilty!", so he can't be thrown into the same box as those guys who DID test positive or who admitted it. And who knows... by the time his candidacy is evaluated, other PEDguys may have been voted in already, so the informal ban may be lifted by then.

oh ok, i'll name one. i'll name the 3rd one from the left "Fred". I've always liked Fred. or how about "Melvin"? I like Melvin, too.

i guess Pelfrey goes 0-20.

Dickey, for having another credible year, with no other viable candidates as a Mets rep. and then Vic Sage, as emergency call up.

Frayed Knot wrote: Phils Runs Scored: 2009 - 820 2010 - 772 2011 - 713 I'm not sure i get your point, FK. Yes, they're scoring less and preventing more. that's called "winning". In the early part of the last decade, they were scoring more and giving up more. that was called "not winning".

Ceetar wrote: How about the career low HR rate, the career high K/9 rate last year. Think he can duplicate that in his age 35 season? His velocity is falling, 92 in 2010 and to 91.3 in 2011 and rumors that it's falling further this Spring. GB/FB rate also a career low, and I think it's easy to see what more FB in that park could mean. This aren't "concrete" reasons, but it's definitely food for thought. The Philly 3 don't need to duplicate "career lows", just career averages. And i have more reason to think they can duplicate those averages at 35 than you have reason to think they can't, other than the fact that, ultimately, time will in fact catch up with them, and your wish that this is that year.

5-7 over the first half, with an ERA hovering around 4; shows enough for the Mets to move him by the July deadline; they work out a deal over the all-star break where they eat 1/2 his remaining $$ and get back a B prospect, but he blows out his arm again just before the deal goes down. Mets have to buy him out after the season. He comes back in 3 years in Minny as "comeback player of the year". Then he screws Pridie's wife.

"One of these days in your travels, a guy is going to show you a brand-new deck of cards on which the seal is not yet broken. Then this guy is going to offer to bet you that he can make the jack of spades jump out of this brand-new deck of cards and squirt cider in your ear. But, son, do not accept this bet, because as sure as you stand there, you're going to wind up with an ear full of cider." -- Sky Masterson Because i think these Prediction threads tend toward ridiculous excercises in Ceetardian puffery, i offer contrary predictions as a form of parody, and to show less optimistic potential outcomes are likely to be just as accurate as pie-in-the-sky optimism. I'm not surprised you don't get it Ashie, but no, i don't wanna bet. Now if you'd like to bet on the color of your bowtie...

Ceetar wrote: Because you still have to score runs and all three of those guys let up 2 runs a game. (often more) And because Vance Worley might not actually be that good and Blanton/Kendrick definitely aren't. Because they play in a bandbox, all three of their top pitchers are almost a given to regress from career low ERAs, and two of them are on the backend of 'prime pitching age', and they have no pitching depth. They've also been able to maximize bullpen effectiveness by having those guys go deep into games. Will age limit that? Will the backend of the rotation limit that? Will injuries? They added Papelbon but lost Madsen (and Lidge) Look at what happened when the Braves had to lean too heavily on their (better) bullpen. they'll score plenty in their "bandbox"; meanwhile their top 3 have yet to have any difficulty pitching there. The rest is wishful thinking. Yeah, they're getting older, so maybe they'll have injuries, or pitch less deeply into games, or "regress" (despite having brilliant careers to date)... or maybe they'll pitch exactly like they have to date for another year. I'll bet on the former until i see concrete reasons to project the latter.

sub .700 OPS (with no discernible impact from SBs or HRs) from a SS with less than spectacular range and arm = nice utility guy, being asked to do more than he can as an everyday starting SS. Valdespin will hit himself into the job by August.

8-14, ERA+ 100 Lefties take a lot longer to figure it out.

Valley Fever causes joint fatigue, which causes his foot injury to heal improperly and changes his gait to compensate. He thus blows out his achilles/hamstring/knee in mid-July. .290/15hr/50/rbi/.900 OPS