Edgy MD

Edgy MD wrote: Riding Butto home is apparently not in the offing. I agree with Ronnie that better to hold him for other, closer games the next few days than going 3-4 innings. Maybe, but today is important too, we have a super-rested pen, and the guy has been a starter and was getting the job done. Danny Young is in and out meanwhile.

Riding Butto home is apparently not in the offing.

We've got the gidp stroke figured out nicely.

Take us, home, Booty.

The first-base ump is in on the conspiracy too?

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: Strike 1 and 3 were terrible Indeed. And Álvarez with a stick of dynamite up his butt is scary. He fights the next one himself.

Good for you, Mendoza.

Ramón de Jesús is making some funky calls off the outside corner to righthanded batters.

Man, Vientos crushed that. It's a start Mister Met abides. https://metsrostercentral.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/photo-on-9-27-24-at-9.12-pm.jpg>

Weird that a player is that hurt and the manager doesn't come out.

Ouch. Brewers go hard, and Brewers get hurt.

Mets are as tight as Lindor's back. And Lindor ain't really Lindor on defense.

Edgy MD wrote: The lie has certainly been put to the notion that the Brewers have nothing to play for. And kapowie.

The lie has certainly been put to the notion that the Brewers have nothing to play for.

Swinging 3-0 man. Forboding.

Lindor is totally at first!!

Lindor is totally in the box!!

Holy crap! Here we are!!

The Mets looked awful tight in the one game that they did get in against the Braves. Nimmo let a ball skip by him. Álvarez ran into his pitcher on a dribbler, Alonso let a ball get away from him, and Acuña flubbed a grounder that was ticketed for a double-play. They looked gosh-darn tight and made me think their un-named captain is a big part of keeping them loose. Also, I kind of got the impression, during this rare interlude when Lindor hasn't been in the lineup, their alternative de-facto captain isn't Nimmo or Alonso or Marte. Things have kind of been revolving Iglesias, haven''t they? It's weird to see it that way, seeing as he wasn't even being a Met at the start of the year, but sometimes culture swings fast that way.

There have been a few leaks from sources close to the team's thinking, but the bottom line is that reports on who is starting for which team are changing by the hour. The good news is that most everybody agrees that, after putting Frankie Montas forward this evening, the Brewers should be following that up with rotation backenders. These are still big league pitchers for a team that just won their division, though, so the Mets still have to focus hard and take care of business. I'm attracted to the notion that the Mets still intend to spring Kodai Senga and Paul Blackburn on some unsuspecting team, for a choice inning here or there, but you can't win on fantasies. It's Friday, and the Mets are 0-1 since Sunday. If Lindor doesn't help them get their mojo back, I hope something does. [th]Day[/th][th]Date[/th][th]Opp.[/th][th]Starter[/th][th]Opp. Starter[/th][th]Score[/th][th]Div. GB[/th][th]WC1 GB[/th][th]WC2 GB[/th][th]WC3 GB[/th] [th]Sunday[/th]1@CWSSean Manaea (L)Garrett Crochet (L)=#00B050]W, 2–08.04.04.01.0 [th]Monday[/th]2=#C00000]vs. BOSLuís Severino (R)Brayan Bello (R)=#00B050]W, 4–17.54.03.00.5 [th]Tuesday[/th]3=#C00000]vs. BOSDavid Peterson (L)Kutter Crawford (R)=#00B050]W, 7–27.53.53.00.5 [th]Wednesday[/th]4=#C00000]vs. BOSTylor Megill (R)Tanner Houck (R)=#00B050]W, 8–37.53.53.00.5 [th]Thursday[/th]58.03.02.5[MetsOrange]0.0[/MetsOrange] [th]Friday[/th]6=#FF0000]vs. CINSean Manaea (L)Brandon Williamson (L)=#00B050]W, 6–48.03.01.5[MetsOrange]0.0[/MetsOrange] [th]Saturday[/th]7=#FF0000]vs. CINJosé Quintana (L)Jakob Junis (R)=#00B050]W, 4-07.02.00.5[MetsOrange]+1.0[/MetsOrange] [th]Sunday[/th]8=#FF0000]vs. CINLuís Severino (R)Julian Aguilar (R)=#FF0000]L, 3-17.02.01.5[MetsOrange]0.0[/MetsOrange] [th][/th][th][/th][th]SQUEAKY[/th][th]BUM[/th][th]TIME[/th][th][/th][th]🐭[/th][th]( | )[/th][th]⏰[/th][th][/th] [th]Monday[/th]9=#0070C0]@TORTylor Megill (R)Ryan Burr (R)=#00B050]W, 3-27.01.51.0[MetsOrange]+1.0[/MetsOrange] [th]Tuesday[/th]10=#0070C0]@TORDavid Peterson (L)Chris Bassitt (R)=#FF0000]L, 6-28.02.52.0[MetsOrange]0.0[/MetsOrange] [th]Wednesday[/th]11=#0070C0]@TORSean Manaea (L)Bowden Francis (R)=#00B050]W, 6-28.02.01.5[MetsOrange]+1.0[/MetsOrange] [th]Thursday[/th]128.02.01.5[MetsOrange]+1.0[/MetsOrange] [th]Friday[/th]13=#EF0C0E]@PHIJosé Quintana (L)Aaron Nola (R)=#00B050]W, 11-37.01.51.0[MetsOrange]+1.0[/MetsOrange] [th]Saturday[/th]14=#EF0C0E]@PHILuís Severino (R)Kolby Allard (L)=#FF0000]L, 2-18.02.51.0[MetsOrange]0.0[/MetsOrange] [th]Sunday[/th]15=#EF0C0E]@PHIDavid Peterson (L)Christopher Sánchez (L)=#FF0000]L, 6-49.03.52.0[MetsOrange]0.0[/MetsOrange] [th]Monday[/th]16=#215C98]vs. WASSean Manaea (L)Jake Irvin (R)=#00B050]W, 2-18.03.51.0[MetsOrange]+1.0[/MetsOrange] [th]Tuesday[/th]17=#215C98]vs. WASTylor Megill (R)Mitchell Parker (L)=#00B050]W, 10-18.02.0[MetsOrange]0.0[/MetsOrange][MetsOrange]+2.0[/MetsOrange] [th]Wednesday[/th]18=#215C98]vs. WASJosé Quintana (L)DJ Herz (L)=#00B050]W, 10-07.02.5[MetsOrange]0.0[/MetsOrange][MetsOrange]+2.0[/MetsOrange] [th]Thursday[/th]19=#EF0C0E]vs. PHILuís Severino (R)Taijuan Walker (R)=#00B050]W, 10-66.02.0[MetsOrange]0.0[/MetsOrange][MetsOrange]+2.0[/MetsOrange] [th]Friday[/th]20=#EF0C0E]vs. PHIDavid Peterson (L)Christopher Sánchez (L)=#FF0000]L, 12-27.03.01.0[MetsOrange]+2.0[/MetsOrange] [th]Saturday[/th]21=#EF0C0E]vs. PHISean Manaea (L)Ranger Suarez (L)=#00B050]W, 6-36.03.01.0[MetsOrange]+2.0[/MetsOrange] [th]Sunday[/th]22=#EF0C0E]vs. PHITylor Megill (R)Zach Wheeler (R)=#00B050]W,2-15.03.0[MetsOrange]0.0[/MetsOrange][MetsOrange]+2.0[/MetsOrange] [th]Monday[/th]235.53.0[MetsOrange]+0.5[/MetsOrange][MetsOrange]+2.0[/MetsOrange] [th]Tuesday[/th]24=#002060]@ATLLuís Severino (R)Spencer Schwellenbach (R)=#FF0000]L, 5-15.54.0[MetsOrange]+0.5[/MetsOrange][MetsOrange]+1.0[/MetsOrange] [th]Wednesday[/th]25=#002060][CROSSOUT]@ATL[/CROSSOUT]PPD6.03.5[MetsOrange]0.0[/MetsOrange][MetsOrange]+1.0[/MetsOrange] [th]Thursday[/th]26=#002060][CROSSOUT]@ATL[/CROSSOUT]PPD6.03.0[MetsOrange]0.0[/MetsOrange][MetsOrange]+1.0[/MetsOrange] [th]Friday[/th]27=#C5BD50]@MILSean Manaea (L)Frankie Montas (R) [th]Saturday[/th]28=#C5BD50]@MILJosé Quintana (L)Colin Rea (R) [th]Sunday[/th]29=#C5BD50]@MILTylor Megill (R)D.L. Hall (L) [th]Monday [/th]30=#002060]@ATL @ATLDavid Peterson (L) Luís Severino (R)Spencer Schwellenbach (R) Chris Sale (L)

I have to say, when this thread went up, I thought, hey, looks like another interesting and fun way to micro-analyze every passing factor that affects the Mets' hopes. I didn't really appreciate that we were looking at a major event that was a messing up the whole season for a bunch of teams.

There's likely got to be a better reason for you. Maybe even for me. But the reason at the studio is that there's a rock-solid business plan. There's no other type of film where you can predict the box office with such certainty. I think 60% of the take from the prior movie is considered the floor for a sequel, with 50-60% outgrossing the original. The previous film is the marketing anchor for the latter, and that saves in marketing costs. The stars of the previous one are not only now more familiar, but you can get past any worry about testing them in the roles, as the audience has already accepted them in the slots, and if you had any foresight, you signed them all to a three-picture deal, with options on the latter two, so you even though they are now more famous due to a successful initial film, they still cost you what they cost you before the first film. If the first film bombs, you don't pick up the option. Usually, there's no buyout fee for that. On top of that, production costs are additionally controlled because the prior production is your blueprint. Lastly, you own the property, so you don't have to pay the rights owner again. If the original screenwriter or director wants mo' $$, you can toss them and hire some hack. The style is already established from the first film. So controlled costs, a mostly guaranteed take, a proven production blueprint, and unlike non-franchise fare, you don't have to worry if the critics think it's derivative, because duh, it's supposed to be. It's certainly a slow-motion race to the bottom artistically, but it's sadly good bidness. Not a lot of execs lose their job for greenlighting Deadpool 3. And when you've got a three-foot pile of cocaine in your rumpus room, and Jennifer Lawrence in your rolodex, you probably make a lot of decisions based on what's not going to get you fired.

I tried to put together a table to get all the numbers in one place, and it looks like ESPN (who I expressed doubt in) and FanGraphs (who I endorsed) are working with the same math. Shows how much I know. [th]TEAM[/TH][TH]ESPN[/TH][TH]BB-REF[/TH][TH]FANGRAPHS[/TH][TH]AVERAGE[/TH][/TR] [th]NYM[/TH][TD]77.8%[/TD][TD]76.2%[/TD][TD]77.8%[/TD][TD]77.3%[/TD][/TR] [th]ARI[/TH][TD]60.5%[/TD][TD]73.4%[/TD][TD]60.5%[/TD][TD]64.8%[/TD][/TR] [th]ATL[/TH][TD]61.6%[/TD][TD]50.4%[/TD][TD]61.6%[/TD][TD]57.9%[/TD][/TR]

Yeah, you gots to get to Monday to win Monday.

Yeah, FanGraphs odds have always smelled the best to me.