Frayed Knot

So: three run lead, three innings to go ... I'd say we've got at least a 10%, maybe even 12%, shot at winning this one.

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: Alonso with a shit AB there. Bench him for Dom!

Edgy MD wrote: The Mets might have made two outs on the bases this inning if Segura could catch the throws and get the tag down. Was just about to add that muffed tag plays at 2B have been our biggest offensive weapon tonight. Two throws on SB attempts and then that one from Harper in RF were all on time but all bungled at 2B

Vargas since August 2018: 23 Game starts; 110 IP; 96 Hits; 39 BB; 96 K; 3.68 ERA; 1.23 WHIP

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: Yes it did look like a good draft for them but you never know with high school pitchers. They wound up with three of the pre-draft top 40 players -- the 17th, 36th, and 13th rated players with the 12th, 53rd, and 89th picks (at least according to some ratings lists). Last time they had a draft that good it produced Ike Davis (18th), Reese Havens (22) and Bradley Holt (33) so it'll be tough to match the [CROSSOUT]great caree ...[/CROSSOUT] Uh, nevermind.

That ruler goes to thirteen. Already found a head-shaking mistake: https://www.metsheritage.com/item/murphy-on-the-field-in-1973-world-series/?postId=3302https://www.metsheritage.com/item/murphy-on-the-field-in-1973-world-series/?postId=3302 Wrong Murphy. Wrong World Series. Do you really expect the intern that put that section together to know the difference between Bob & Johnny Murphy? Or Oakland and Baltimore for that matter? I think we should cut the kid some slack.

As usual, the more intriguing part of this story is: Who leaked it? An "industry source" could be anyone or anything and it doesn't even specify that it's someone from the Mets although the initial leak almost certainly had to come from someone within the Mets. That could have been passed from NYM insider to some outsider who in turn leaked it to Puma, an act which may make it hearsay which, while possibly shaky journalism, doesn't make it not true. And, again as usual, just the fact that this crew doesn't seem to be capable of keeping anything from leaking remains standard operating procedure.

Over multiple seasons? Howe was disappeared with half his contract remaining (2 years of 4). Mickey, if canned today, would be about the same although only 1.5 of 3 which may or may not fit one's definition of "multiple". Going back to the '90s, none of Green, Torborg, Harrelson, Valentine were kept on to finish their deals, nor was 'Middle of the Night' Willie. I don't remember at this point what percentage of their deals remained when those mid-year changes were made, nor do I recall whether Jerry Manual was let go with terms still remaining or was simply not re-hired. All of which leaves the list of 'recent' NYM managers who finished out their terms of employment as ... Terry Collins, and does someone really want to make the case that, coming off consecutive post-season seasons of 90 & 87 wins, that a mid-season change in 2017 was going to salvage what became a 92-loss season but simply wasn't made in order to save a couple hundred K by an ownership group that had no problem doing just that more often than not? My larger point here being that we sometimes get so caught up in Wilpon-bashing that we find ourselves willing to ignore reality and repeat 'facts' which actually aren't facts at all because it fits a certain narrative and makes us feel better by saying it. We went through this late last summer when Alonso discussions started to surface and several of us just knew that he wouldn't be brought up until, well probably just in the last few weeks, "because that's what the Mets always do". The only problem with that argument is that, starting I think with Reyes now 16 years ago and moving forward from there, we couldn't find a single one of their prospects where that was actually the case. Also, like JCL says, most managers, especially first-timers like Mickey, are among the smaller expenses a club has these days and therefore one of the last places you'd want to look for evidence of them 'cheaping out'. Cot's Contracts lists Mickey's 2018 salary as 850K. Assuming a deal which called for modest raises over this year and next, getting rid of him today would be less than the price of three minimum wage players. It just doesn't add up. They may or may not get rid of MC now or in the near future, but I'd be surprised if his salary is even A factor in the decision and certainly not THE factor, particularly not after they went out this winter and hired a seasoned former manager and installed him as the bench coach, a potential transition which would be more seamless than most if a mid-stream change were to be made.

=dgwphotography post_id=14193 time=1561515379 user_id=78] Let's face it, the Wilpons don't want to pay for a second manager.

I really hate baseball right about now.

Re: Conforto -- Yup, tried to tie it up on three straight pitches.

It's like they draw straws out there to decide whose turn it is to suck that night. And there rarely seems to be a night where there isn't a designated sucker.

Cano tried to ground into a DP in his 1st AB, but the ball simply failed to find a glove. Up in the same situation again in inning #2, he avoided the DP by K-ing instead.

This is a bit like the (little reported) fact that the reason the NFL & NBA can get away with arbitrary -- HS graduation year + 1 in NBA, +3 in football (and note it's graduation year not actual graduation) -- and otherwise illegal age-minimum requirements for their leagues is that it's a clause that's been agreed to by their respective player associations. Lawsuits have been lost by players trying to bust those limits specifically because those clauses were reached via a collective bargaining process rather than by simple top-down fiat as with the old baseball reserve clause. Basically the players (particularly in the NBA) have decided that once they get in, the fewer new applicants that are allowed to apply, the better it is for them. And, really, Eaton, if things were tweaked to allow minor leaguers to earn 20K/year ... 30K, etc. (instead of the ~8K to $15K or so as listed above) is that REALLY going to dampen the drive of these kids to make 1/2mil+/yr to start and potentially many multiples of that?!?

So https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hammejd01.shtmlwhat time is it for the Philly pen?

Plays. Not. Made.

This is going to end up being a high scoring game ... that's assuming it actually does end at some point, which certainly isn't a given.

Has Cano had a meaningful hit since opening day?

Giving away outs again ... It was three in Chicago on Sunday (2 GiDPs plus Alonso getting picked-off). And now Matz trying for 3rd (I was yelling NO!! before he even reached 2nd) is the first one tonight. Allowing the other side to beat you while only having to retire 23 or 24 batters in a game is not a recipe for winning.

=metirish post_id=14010 time=1561401907 user_id=72] I am really note sure if Heyman is joking but he tweets that the Mets plan to get Callway and Healey together today in a [CROSSOUT]room[/CROSSOUT] steel death cage.

Dodgers win three straight from the Rox, all at home, all by walk-off HRs, all by rookies. - Friday night: tie game, bottom 9, 2 outs, Matt Beaty (LF, 67 career ML ABs) 2R-HR - Saturday night: tie game, bottom 11th, 1 out, Alex Verdugo (CF, 321 ML ABs) solo HR - Sunday afternoon: tie game, bottom 9th, 2 outs, Will Smith (21 ML ABs - recalled from the minors today) PH 3R HR That's how you get to be 54-25

The other (though less serious) piece of strategy here was double-switching McNeil for Frazier when he brought in Gsellman. Now, yeah, you'll likely employ McNeil in the 9th anyway, - but don't you want Frazier's defense while there are tow more outs in the 8th still to get? - if the Mets get a big inning Frazier's spot could conceivably come up (he made the final out of the 8th) - you aren't using Gsellman for a second inning anyway. Either you catch up and use Diaz for the 9th or you don't and there is no bottom 9 So all you end up doing is telegraphing exactly when you're going to PH McNeil. It'll probably be where he PHs anyway, but there's no need to pre-decide that. Terry used to do that a lot in his early days, but even he weaned himself off that after a while.

I wonder what an analysis would show concerning lengthy ABs -- however you want to define them: 7 or more pitches?, 8 or more?, 10? -- both for and against. Now maybe it's just biased thinking, but it seems to me (and right as we're having another one courtesy of Kris Bryant) that our pitchers have a lot more of those to contend with as compared to what NYM hitters do to opposing hurlers. iow: we seem to serve up a whole fucking lot of foul balls.

Except that they've already lost their first two games of this weekend's series to the Marlins while scoring just four runs [1-2; 3-5] And this is off them getting swept 3-0 in the rain-drenched Nats series scoring a grand total of six [2-6; 0-2; 4-7] Harper had one single in 9 ABs during the series in Washington; 4 BBs vs 3 Ks

E-Rawlings