Frayed Knot

Cano: 'I've been a hitter my whole life' Yes, but you've never been 39 y/o and coming off a year's worth of inactivity before.

We'll miss Wheeler this weekend as he's busy one-hitting the Rox thru 6 this afternoon. 3-0 Phils, top 7 The 2nd place (9-8, 3.5 GB) Marlins looking for the sweep in DC as they lead the (6-14) Nats 2-1 in the 7th Braves (8-11) and Cubs for the rubber game of their series tonight.

Ronald Acuna to return to the Braves tonight, his first game since tearing up his knee in the OF last July. They managed OK without him. He had like 20 hits in 10 ABs during his brief rehab stint with about 25 going for extra bases.

Yeah, I've long thought that coaches shy away from going for it on 4th down and from two point PATs because they were afraid of the backlash and second guessing that would come from failing. I believe it's a truism that powerful coaches, who were often part of the competition committee where rules were decided, were the ones who kept the 2-point conversion out of the NFL for so long even as it was a standard in college ball (and the AFL?? ... I forget). If it wasn't allowed then they couldn't be blamed for not using it. NFL coaches don't have that kind of out-sized power anymore so, like baseball though to a lesser degree, some of these philosophies are being driven from the front office so I detect at least a whiff of change even as the head coach remains a game-day autocrat. There's a HS coach (in Arkansas I think?) who runs his team with the philosophy that they Never punt, they Always on-sides kick, Always go for two, and several other 'trick' plays such as those ... and they almost always win. Now this is HS and their winning could be from any one of a zillion factors so I don't want to equate this to the pros, but to me it just seems like a much more interesting game to follow and a much more FUN way to play. Plus it's not like it's hurting his school's record. Will try to catch up on that Gladwell pod at some point.

I'm not saying anything so absolute as "Never" or "Always." What I am saying is that, maybe, the IBB is called for ten times, or a hundred times, more than it should be. And I'm certainly willing to entertain the idea that MLB managers over-use the IBB, although I don't recall if anyone has tried to put forth evidence that it is nor do I have any particular opinion on it myself. Certainly the idea that the Sac Bunt was over-used in previous eras is pretty much accepted fact by now and that current strategy is of the opinion that defensive shifts were under-used in the past. Point is that trends in thinking can and do shift in sports even if pure momentum means it sometimes takes longer than it should. I'm just a casual football fan but have long thought that that league is in need of a Bill James-ian kind of examination. In recent years there do seem to be some very slowly moving shifts in their otherwise conservative mindset such as where punting on 4th-and-inches doesn't always seem to be the first and only option. Two-point attempts, except in those cases where your the situation dictates that your team is forced into them, still appears to be the equivalent of touching the third rail for coaches but maybe that too will start to move, even if only at the speed of plate tectonics.

Happy birthday J.D.

[FIMG=250]https://www.alzforum.org/sites/default/files/styles/media_large/public/08.29_Marmoset_1.jpg?itok=N_Xx9_n8[/FIMG] there'd be days like this That game took nearly three hours to watch even via delay while fast-forwarding through commercials, pitching changes, and umpire challenges.

But the "manager only has a few moments to make the call" is both true and, in Gladwell's larger sense, completely false. In his sense, managers have had over a century to come up with the answer and they (may have) come up with the wrong one. Except that each situation is different so neither the 'Always IBB in that case' or 'Never IBB' is the correct call. One may be the better option today but the other tomorrow based on a whole host of factors. The Bill James-led statistical revolution correctly pointed out the poor results from the near-automatic use of the man-on-1st/no-out Sac Bunt that was in vogue for most of the 20th century but that's not the same as advocating it be scrapped forever. As related by Gary last night, Buck cited the speed on O'Neil hitting behind Goldschmidt (reducing GiDP odds) and moving one batter closer to Arenado as his primary reasons for Not walking Goldschmidt intentionally. And, as we all know, they pitched to him carefully and walked him anyway.

Edgy MD wrote: Bassitt really slowed down in his last inning. Plus there were the HbPs, with the accompanying staredowns, medical checkups, and pitchers circling the mound trying to gather themselves. iow, a typical MLB game in the 21st century with a running time [3:32] which is becoming all too typical [nearly 1 game in 7 this season has run north of 3:30 -- 9-inning games only] And this one had all of 3 runs and 11 hits combined.

And while the injured StL pitcher had something to do with it, that's still 3-1/2 hours for a 3-0 game.

Frayed Knot wrote: Break it open Starling Or do that. I'm not picky.

Break it open Starling

This is where one of the Mofo-ites complains that McCann should have 'saved one of his hits' for that AB

Jordan Hicks, takes his licks.

Joel Sherman examines several possibilities for the mini-cut-down date (it's after Sunday's games, not before) and one or more of them just might involve Dom. https://nypost.com/2022/04/26/mets-could-face-roster-decision-between-dominic-smith-robinson-cano/https://nypost.com/2022/04/26/mets-could-face-roster-decision-between-dominic-smith-robinson-cano/

Probably, 70% of the time you end up walking him anyway, because Willie "Babe" Trout knows the strike zone. Which is the same result as an IBB. But the other 30% of the time, you've reduced those gaudy numbers to mere human levels, .275/20 or something like that. Providing said pitcher can put his pitches where he wants, which if he could he probably wouldn't be in that predicament in the first place. I'm on team-IW for the same reason Edgy mentions: sets up the all-around force and it's Goldschmidt. Of course there's a downside to it, there always is. In a NYM board from another era, some of us here frequently heard cries of 'Walk him every time up!!' whenever some Met-killer-du-jour stepped up to the plate. Explaining the pure 'dumpth' of that reasoning was exasperating (this board was essentially created to avoid dopes like that) but I'm also not going to go to the other extreme and perch myself on planet 'Never IW' either. I won't advocate the 'Four Fingers of Fate' too often but I would have there.

I would have IW'd him too. And for Ronnie to be any more adamant about the free pass he would have had to actually be Adam Ant. The result of Buck's method was ultimately the same, just with more stress on his pitcher ... not to mention on us.

And Cano may eventually get dropped but that doesn't mean it has to happen this week. I just liked pointing out that Dom busted it out of the box from stride #1. If he didn't start until #2 then he would have been out.

Anyone who had 19 days into the season for MLB's first complete game come by the office to collect your winnings. Second latest in history. LAD's Walker Buehler last night, 0 Runs, 3 hits, 10 Ks, 0 BBs Dodgers are 12-4

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Edgy MD wrote: 　　Mets Win Expectancy: 22.4% 　　　Paul Goldschmidt walks. 　　Mets Win Expectancy: 22.6% Interesting that Goldschmidt walking slightly increased the chances of the Mets winning. Were "they" expecting that Goldschmidt was likely to do something more damaging than drawing a walk? No, it's the force play factor. Like we were discussing the other day, these probabilities are generic so the situation is factored in but not specifically Goldschmidt and his Goldschmidtedness. It's just Joe Batter up there as far as the odds are concerned.

Edgy MD wrote: It's almost like he's choosing his words so as to be able to unload without getting kicked out of the game. Who, Schwarber? He got booted the instant he spiked his bat. The call he blew up over was pretty much borderline but it came with one out in the 9th of a 1-0 game and apparently it was a building storm all night. Gotta like his pantomime though: you missed em high, you missed em low, up and down!!!

Instead of casting my vote I'm going to vote my cast if that's OK.

So it's what, two slots that need to be eliminated before Sunday's game? And not that anyone expects the decision to come down to Cano vs Dom (although a choice between Cano and someone is likely to be part of the mix), but does anyone think that if Cano had hit Dom's ball Monday night that he would have been safe at 1st? Of course not, meaning that the game ends on that AB with no McSquirrel dash home, no Nimmo 1st pitch ambush, and no early season signature win. One shirley hopes that's something Bucky and Billy and Stevie are factoring into the equation.

Edgy MD wrote: I'm certainly not giving him any beer, but credit to May for sacking up and getting those last two outs after his initial exit strategy fell apart. Yeah. The fact that a bad inning was saved from being a catastrophic one turned out to matter greatly.

Just saw the Nimmo HR for the first time.