Frayed Knot

http://www.thehardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.phpPretty good page where you can manipulate stats via various conditions/limits etc. (hitting stats only - although, oddly, no OPS). Not as complete as espn.com's but it's a lot quicker and more accessable.

Peggy Lee could really belt 'em out too from what I hear, but I don't think she hit any today in Milwaukee.

What: Mets (35-37) vs Yanks (37-35)It's Round 2 of "The Thrilla .... um, ... Near Broxville-ah"No? OK, how 'bout: "The Boredom Not All that Far from Fordham"Ahhh, I'll work on it later. Where: Yankee StadiumWhen: Friday, 7:10 PM - FSNY / YES / ESPN (National Telecast)Saturday: 4:20 PM - Ch 11 / YESSunday: 8:10 - ESPN (National Telecast)No excuses for youse outta towners to miss these.Who: Why the Yankees of course, who just this past week announced plans to tear down that old, ugly, crumbling and barely functional monstrosity and pump $800million into it's replacement ... but hey, enough about their roster.Game 1: Pedro Martinez: (5-1, 2.86 ERA, 0.78 WHiP) - vs - Mike Mussina (R): (8-4, 3.82, 1.33) Mussina has been the winner in his last 3 starts.Game 2:Tom Glavine: (4-7, 5.06, 1.71) - vs - Sean Henn (L): (0-2, 10.29, 2.86)Henn's been called up twice this year as an injury replacement - and lossed both times.Game 3:Kris Benson: (6-2, 3.90, 1.16) - vs - Randy Johnson (L): (7-5, 4.02, 1.19)The 'Big Unit' can still be dominate at times, although leads the league in excuses when he doesn't.So what's new since with these guys since the last time we saw them?* Well the most important news is that Derek Jeter hit a grand slam. I'm sure you saw it since I believe it was carried on all three network news programs. Previously, "Captain Clutch" held the active record (and 2nd most ever in the expansion era) for most ABs w/bases loaded w/o a GS. And I know that you're thinking; "but wait Mr. Knot, I was told he was the most clutch player on earth! How can this be?". Well, it seems that the 'clutch advocates' somehow maintain that this somewhat inglorious streak was actually 'proof' of his clutchness rather than a counter to it because it just showed how he was smart enough to be a team player and take a hit rather than try for slams. Of course his record w/bases loaded wasn't especially good even w/o the slams, plus had he held the mark for MOST slams in that time then you just know that THAT would also have been cited as proof of clutchness - thus making it the perfect 'can't lose' argument. It should also be noted that 'Captain Intangibles' also admitted to have been actively trying for slams since he became aware of his mark years earlier.* At 1st base during May, Tino Martinez was red-hot and Jason Giambi was ice-cold. Now, it's Tino who's ice-cold (4-for-33 in June) while Giambi is ... well, slightly warmer than ice cold. He's actually has 5 extra-base hits in June - which brings his season total to 11 - and tonight (Thursday) was so desperate for a hit that he got one by bunting against the shift.* Reservations have started for 2nd baseman Robinson Cano's induction into Cooperstown. Calls can be made to Suzyn Waldman and Associates Travel Agency so as to not get shut out.* Alex Rodriguez is still up there in all the AL 'Triple Crown' categories ... and his own fans still hate him.* That ticking sound you hear is the time running out on Tony Womack's Yankee career. It won't be long now.* Hideki Matsui nearly had his two-continent consecutive game streak (some 1,300 and counting) ruined when he rolled his ankle last week. Instead, he was forced into the DH role where ... he suddenly became a much better hitter! After hitting 1 HR from early April thru early June, he's hit 5 since being hobbled. He may be back to playing LF (something I did for several years) by this weekend.* Sean Henn: You loved him in 'Fast Times at Ridgemont High' and 'Mystic River'; now he's subbing for the beloved Kevin Brown. Tallies are now being taken to determine whether he's punched more photographers or walked more batters (9 in 7 IPs over 2 starts). No word on whether Madonna is expected to attend.* Scott Proctor is new to the bullpen. He's right-handed, throws hard, but probably won't be seen unless the game's out of hand one way or the other.Injuries:Them: Jared Wright, Kevin Brown, Felix Rodriguez, Rey Sanchez.Us: Kaz Matsui, Miguel Cairo, Felix Heredia, Steve Trachsel

]Way to waste pitchers, Willie!Willie played the pen just fine today IMHO. The buttons didn't always work correctly, but I thought he pushed them in just the right order.* If he leaves Ishii in once he put a runner on in the 7th we'd be killing him for 'not learning his lesson' from Kaz's earlier bad innings -- so he brought in Bell to face the righty Michaels* Once Bell gave up the single we'd have thrown Willie to the wolves if he left him in to face the lefty swinging Abreu -- so he went to Ring* Then when R^3 walked Abreu, we'd have skewered him on a stick and stuck him in Dickshot's Chinese pig cooker if he left the LHP in to face Burrell -- so Willie did the logical thing and brought in the righty Roberto (excuse me, Mel II) for Pat the Bat* Then left RH in to work the 8th, and Loopy for the 9thI got no problems with any of that.

We're gonna regret not scoring any of those 'tack-on' runs.Now 4-3 as Bell allows an RBI-1BRing in to face Abreu(first they hit the Bell, now they have to put up with the Ring)

Benson - 1Mientkiewica - 1.5Daubach - 1.5Ring - 1Hernandez - 1Looper - 1Beltran - 1.5Reyes - 1.5

'Drinkin Buddy' goes deep w/1 out.4-2

And Cormier screws up that strategy by plunking Cliffy - 2 out, bags loaded, Piazza vs Frenchy.

Top 7:Mientkiewicz - HRIshii - GOReyes - 1B (3rd hit o the day)Cammy - K (Reyes steals 2B)Beltran - BBand now the Phils will go to the pen specifically for Cliff Floyd nemesis Rheal Cormier (Cliff's like 1-for-80 against him or something).Fran was calling Cormier "Frenchy" the other day - and while he is a Franch Canadian I have no idea if that's a real nickname or something Fran just invented.

Get used to it folks.Heard yesterday about how the Yanx radiocast now sponsors the disclaimer that's read during each game! Y'know, this part about how the pictures, descriptions and accounts of this game yyybbb ,,,

Burrell - Thome - BellPop-out - Fly Out - Ground Out on 3 pitchesNot so shaky this time.

Ishii = Good (so far)Rollins was just the first Phils batter to reach 2nd - aside from Thome that is who only reached it as he was jogging past.The 6th coming up seems to have been his trouble inning lately.

And Wright takes advantage of his plum lineup spot to drive in a run w/a single

I wonder if Buehrle is a bachelor?

"Once again, Jeter makes the final out."Swung at ball four too from what I heard.But hey, at least it wasn't like he was the tying run trying to get on base or anything ... oh wait!!"How many has that been this year?"More than his fans are willing to admit but less than I willing to settle for.

Neither Orosco nor McDowell could ever pitch "in big spots".If this game didn't prove to Met fans that you could never win a championship with those two anchoring your bullpen I don't know what could!!!

I didn't realize that came so relatively late in the season. I would have thought it was still in the Spring.Seaver had gotten hurt at the tail-end of '86 - it's the reason he didn't pitch against us in the WS - so he must have still been recovering from whatever it was.What I do remember is that he would up testing his stuff by pitching a few simulated games and then called it quits when he got smacked around by the likes of Barry Lyons. Lyons wondered at the time if that meant he'd be inducted into the 'Simulated Hall of Fame'.

]Wasn't Ryan Anderson the 6'10" kid that was being hailed as the next Unit?Yup. 2 or 3 shoulder surgeries later the M's finally released him.]Looks like most of them have made it to the majors already, so whoever came up with that rating did a pretty good job. Made the majors? Sure. My point wasn't to disparage the list-makers.But look at things this way: Suppose we time-shift this list 3 years and say that this list is this year's list. Now, if we were to deal either Floyd or Cameron for any one of the prospects listed above, which of them would make us NOT disappointed with the deal 3 years down the road? * Teixiera & Blalock for sure, and Peavy.* Prior & Beckett - even w/their up-and-down present.* Plus Morneau & Mauer - even if still more for their projected promise than current productionBut I'm not so sure there are any other slam-dunks.Choi & Nick Johnson are just now getting there and certainly could be worthwhile depending on how things go. And youngsters like Kotchman, Gonzalez, Johnson, Williams & maybe Kearns still have time to be real good.But that's still just 14 names (7 yesses & 7 maybes by my count - your mileage may vary) out of 40, meaning that approx 2/3 of the list are players we'd feel weren't worth the wait for the good player we gave up.And those guys are the BEST prospects.That's part of what's driving me nuts about the Met fans who act as if a theoretical Cano/Cameron deal is such a knee-jerk 'YES'. Now Cano is a bit different than the above list because the projection is less long-term since he's already made the big leagues. But the fact that he's never been considered anywhere near those guys means that his ceiling also isn't likely to be as high."Trade 'em for Prospects" always sounds good and certainly has it's place. I just think it's a lot more of a hit-and-miss (and more miss than hit) than most fans acknowledge.On edit: And, just as an addedum to the list of those 7+ guys you would want -- Those are exactly the ones you'd never get in a trade!!Most of them - not sure about Peavy & Morneau - were very top of the draft / multi-million $ bonus / can't touch types. All of which makes the odds of a good deal for a current player to be even less of a sure thing.

With all the 'Trade 'em for Prospects' talk, I thought I'd take a look at how the top of the prospects field looked 3 years ago. The names below - shown in their original organization and position - were combined from several sources into a kind of consensus top 40 list prior to the 2002 season.Comments and ages reflect their current status.#1 Josh Beckett - RHP Marlins Front of the rotation talent, though oft-injured and a .500 record (25 years old)#2 Sean Burroughs - 3B Padres Full-time ML starter though almost no power at a corner position (24)#3 Hank Blalock - 3B RangersLegit emerging star#4 Mark Prior - RHP CubsShows signs of being a star, but can't stay healthy#5 Carlos Pena - 1B RangersNow in his 3rd organization, recently demoted to minors (27)#6 Nick Johnson - 1B Yankees 2nd organization - having his first breakout season (26)#7 Juan Cruz - RHP Cubs Middle inning reliever, now in his 3rd organization (26)#8 Austin Kearns - OF Reds Recently demoted to minors (26)#9 Dennis Tankersley - RHP PadresStarting and relieving in AAA in his 2nd organization (26)#10 Mark Tiexiera - 3B RangersMoved to 1st base, legit emerging star#11 Wilson Betemit - SS Braves Reached ML this year, getting playing time as injury replacement/backup (23)#12 Joe Borchard - OF White Sox Struggling in his 3rd year in AAA (26)#13 Michael Cuddyer - 3B Twins Now in his 4th year with middling stats - .268/.335/.394 (26)#14 Jake Peavy - RHP Padres Emerging as a top of the rotation starter now in his 4th season (24)#15 Nick Nuegebauer - RHP Brewers Hasn't pitched in the ML since 2002, derailed by injuries#16 Adrian Gonzalez - IB Marlins 2nd organization, hitting well in AAA after 2 brief stints in ML (23)#17 Carlos Hernandez - LHP Astros 2-5, 7.11 ERA, 2.00+ WHiP in AAA following major elbow surgery (25)#18 Chris Snelling - OF Seattle Oft-injured, hitting well in AAA (23)#19 Jack Cust - 1B/OF Rockies In AAA in his 3rd or 4th organization (26)#20 Ryan Anderson - LHP Mariners Was #1 overall prospect in a previous year, was derailed by several injuries and released. Has pitched a handful of innings in A-ball this year (26)#21 Marlon Byrd - OF Phillies Playing part-time in 2nd organization (27)#22 Jerome Williams - RHP Giants Just called up to Cubs bullpen following trade and TJ surgury (23)#23 Brandon Phillips - SS Indians Back in AAA following 2 poor years (23)#24 Boof Bosner - RHP Giants Well traded by Giants, can't find his current location#25 Drew Henson - 3B YankeesOut of Baseball#26 Justin Morneau - 1B Twins Looks to be an emerging star (24)#27 Joe Mauer - C Twins Injured as rookie - still on pace to be a top player (22)#28 Angel Berroa - SS Royals AL ROY, but somewhat pedestrian player since (27)#29 Hee Seop Choi - 1B Cubs Now in 3rd organization - starts most of the time (26)#30 Chin-Feng Chen - OF Dodgers Playing in AAA (27)#31 Josh Hamilton - OF Devil Rays 1st overall pick, now starting in A-ball following a string of physical and personal problems#32 Jose Reyes#33 Jon Rauch - RHP White Sox Pitching out of the pen in a new organization after being picked up via Rule 5 (26)#34 Gabe Gross - OF Blue Jays Recent call-up/bench player (25)#35 Kelly Johnson - SS Braves Was moved to the OF and just called up for injury replacement (23)#36 Raphael Soriano - RHP MarinersSpot reliever for 2 years, now on long-term DL (elbow)#37 Josh Phelps - C/1B Blue Jays Part-time DH/1B, now with 3rd organization (27)#38 Brandon Claussen - LHP Yankees Back of the rotation guy for a new organization (26)#39 Corey Malone - LHP Blue Jays Starting & relieving in AA (25)#40 Casey Kotchman - 1B AngelsBattled injuries in minors - limited ML ABs (22)I don't really have a specific point here, except to point out how tough it is to pick future stars even from the supposed cream of the prospect crop. It's one thing to take a lesser prospect(s) for a player you WANT to get rid of for performance/salary reasons and hope that the replacements will eventually work out. But, if we're going to go about proposing deals for players who are currently playing well w/reasonable contracts attached, the hit-or-miss nature of career projections means we'd really want to shoot for someone where there's a reasonable chance that their ceiling will be at least that of the player you're dealing since there's no guarantee these hopefuls will ever reach the projected peak and it will likely be a few years for it to happen even if they do.

The math lesson from today's game: R^3 > U^3

]I think Giambi will regain most of his pre-juice form and be a productive hitter again. Real soon.Well then you're 'bout the only one.]If he does, this would be a steal for the Mets.Giambi is owed some $70+mil for the remainder of his contract. If the Mets picked up as much as $10mil of that - meaning we'd get Jason for essentially about $2.5mil/year - the Yanx would take Kirk Cameron in that swap and kiss your feet while they're at it.

I proclaim this to be well done

I'm not saying, have never said, and likely WILL never say; "we can't trade [insert player here]". If someone wants to give us all kinds of goodies for Caneron or Floyd I'll help pack their bags (even though I've enjoyed having both here).My point is - specifically about Cano but also as a more general statement - that there's a significant portion of Met fans who are so tied up in the grass-is-greener syndrome, and so enamored with this 'younger-is-automatically-better' mantra, that they believe we'll come out ahead if we can just take Cammy/Floyd, plus throw in a prospect or two, plus pay a chunk of their salary, if only it could land us some fair/middling prospect (nowhere near BA's top-100) like the great Robinson Freakin' Cano - who, to this point, has hit ML pitching to an exceedingly mediocre level for about as long as Rookie Carroca held the Bantamweight championship.

I'm just not that high on Cano.There's a decent sized sect of Yanqui fans who believe - because so many things went well for them in the mid-90s - that future call-ups are pre-destined to go work out perfectly for them forever and therefore have already inked Cano in as their starting 2nd baseman for the next 10 years.Except that Cano has been considered a decent (not great) prospect who hasn't hit LHPs since A-ball, just now has poked his OBA above .300 (as it barely was in AAA), is slow for a middle infielder.Maybe he becomes a good player; or maybe he struggles to even maintain a starting job in the big leagues. Ricky LeDee was a starter for some pretty good NYY teams also.Meanwhile Floyd (on pace for 40+ HRs) & Cameron (60+ X-base hits last year despite the bad hand) are the best 2 offensive players on our offensive-starved team. Does Cano hit these highs even in his best years? Oh yeah, and we currently have two 2nd basemen.I just don't get it.

2005 Draft Pick 'Clones:PITCHERS:22 Salvador Aguilar, RHP - (29th round) -- Lewis-Clark State Univ (Idaho)29 Eric Brown, RHP - (18) -- Wingate Univ (NC)30 Joe D'Alessandro, RHP - (23) -- College of New Jersey0 Erik Domangue, LHP - (16) -- Alvin Texas JuCo39 Bobby Parnell, RHP - (9) -- Charlestown Southern Univ0 Kyle Risinger, RHP - (24) -- Galveston (Oh Galveston) CC46 Kevin Tomasiewicz, LHP - (26) -- Univ Wisconson-WhitewaterCATCHER:11 Drew Butera R/R - (5th) -- Univ of Central FloridaINFIELDERS: 34 Timothy Grogan L/R 3B - (19) -- W Kentucky Univ20 Joseph Mihalics R/R UT - (34) -- Univ of Buffalo38 DJ Wabick L/R 1B - (25) -- College of CharlestownOUTFIELDERS: 21 Greg Gonzalez. L/L - (28) -- Chico State Univ (CA)35 Joseph Holden. L/R - (21) -- Wantagh (L.I.) HS & Molloy College44 Michael Sharpe, L/R - (35) -- St. Thomas Aquinas College (NY)