Frayed Knot

Of course the kicker is that the 40% lux-tax kicks in and turns Pettitte into an approx $22.4mil acquisition - or nearly $45 over two years. But, the team isn't tied up for multi-years and if the Yanx don't care what they're paying the fans shouldn't care too much either. After all, Pettitte merely becomes their 12th current $10mil+/yr player (and I believe 6th at $15mil or more) so it's not like it's this deal that'll throw everything outta whack. And then it allows the Japanese pitcher they just shelled out $25mil for the posting fee and the $10mil/yr Carl Pavano fight it out for the 5th starter's slot. The other fun part about this was his agents claiming that "everyone knows" that Andy won't activate the player option for year 2 if he gets hurt and unable to pitch at full effectiveness. Yeah ... OK. I remember making a prediction back when Kevin Brown first signed that 7yr/$105mil contract w/the Dodgers that he would NOT win 105 games over the length of that deal (that same $1mil per win standard). I won that one by a lot -- he reached 72 in the final year and then retired.

OK, I smell a whole lotta trouble here.To start with, your list bears no resemblence to anything in the threads discussion. Now I know there's a decent chance that that's not the complete thread (although it does seem like it is) but, among other problems:* you've got Bearnarth's 60 IPs and Parson's 90 at the bottom of the list, well behind Selma (all of 26 IP) - and Selma doesn't even appear anywhere in the original discussion. * Rob Gardner (all of 28 IP) wasn't discussed either but now suddenly appears towards the middle of your list. * Dennis Ribant (and his 35 IP) also jumps up after never being anywhere BUT the very bottom of the list.Something's rotten in Denmark.

1987RANKINGSPOINTSPLAYER30Darryl Strawberry29Howard Johnson28Keith Hernandez27Dwight Gooden26Kevin McReynolds25Lenny Dykstra24Sid Fernandez23Gary Carter22Ron Darling21Rick Aguilera20Roger McDowell19Terry Leach18Tim Tuefel17Mookie Wilson16Refael Santana15Wally Backman14Dave Magadan13Lee Mazzilli12Keith Miller11Barry Lyons10David Cone9John Mitchell8Bobby Ojeda7Bill Almon6Jesse Orosco5Doug Sisk4Randy Myers3Jeff Innis2Gene Walter1Don Schultze

1986RANKINGSPOINTSPLAYER29Dwight Gooden29Keith Hernandez29Bobby Ojeda26Ron Darling26Gary Carter26Darryl Strawberry24Sid Fernandez23Roger McDowell22Jesse Orosco21Lenny Dykstra20Ray Knight19Mookie Wilson18Wally Backman17Kevin Mitchell16Danny Heep15Rick Aguilera14Howard Johnson13Tim Tuefel12Doug Sisk11George Foster10Rafael Santana8.5Lee Mazzilli8.5Ed Hearn7Rick Anderson6Randy Niemann5Randy Myers4Dave Magadan3Bruce Berenyi2Terry Leach1John Gibbons

ESPN reporting: Pettitte sings with the Yanx - 1 year. Team not confirming

1985RANKINGSPOINTSPLAYER30Dwight Gooden29Darryl Strawberry28Gary Carter27Keith Hernandez26Ron Darling25Roger McDowell24Jesse Orosco23George Foster22Wally Backman21Mookie Wilson20Danny Heep19Sid Fernandez18Rick Aguilera17Ed Lynch16Howard Johnson15Rusty Staub14Terry Leach13Raphael Santana12Lenny Dykstra11Ray Knight10Tom Paciorek9Clint Hurdle8John Christensen7Ron Gardenhire6Doug Sisk5Tom Gorman4Kelvin Chapman3Bill Latham2Ronn Reynolds1Calvin Schiraldi

]The one thing Bannister has shown definitively is that he doesn't implode in a tight spot, I don't think that in just 6 starts and less than 40 IPs that a pitcher can be said to have definitively shown anything.

]Does anybody know where we could look up the VORP (value over replacement player) of guys like Meche and Lilly? Acc to the folks at BP (for 2006): Lilly = 26.4 Meche = 18.0

]What would be the penalty for tampering anyway? Fines? Or could Selig void the Boston contract and reinstate the LA contract? Selig would have the power to do either - although the further it gets away, time-wise, from the Boston signing the more difficult it would be to negate the new contract and then return him to LA (would they even want him?) or make Drew a FA again as teams would have their rosters more filled out reducing the market for Drew, etc.

RE: the Drew case: Tampering - it seems to me - would have to be one of the more difficult things to prove.

="SteveJRogers"]I know Yance, just needed something to latch on to in order to somehow vaildate or justify my belief that baseball just isn't the same. Oh good, for a second there I was afraid that you were reaching conclusions first and then selectively searching for evidence to "prove' your pre-determined outcome. ]But can I at least say the interest in baseball is starkly different than it has been in the past? Maybe it's not on a respirator or anything, but it's just not the same "sport." All of which pre-supposes this notion that you've used as the entire basis for your thesis that fans everywhere in days gone by knew everything about all players on all teams, something you haven't come close to backing up other than to merely assume it to be true. I'll contend that the advent of national TV packages which bring a half-dozen out-of-town games per week to most fans and even more to those who opt for them, plus the internet/inforrmation age and almost hourly hi-light/wrap-up type shows bring a whole lot more knowledge of players and the game itself to the average fan today as compared to his counterpart of yesteryear. The are myriad stories from players of old whose ML debut was also the first first big league game and stadium they ever saw. I personally can remember watching All-star games as a kid simply to find out what some of the AL stars looked like. Guys like Harmon Killebrew & Frank Howard were almost akin to exotic foods one had heard of buy never sampled simply because they were merely names in black & white in newspapaers who you rarely got to see otherwise. And this doesn't even include the vast majority of the country whose lone exposure was Game of the Week plus maybe some far-off radio signal.

Which would be odd since it means that Cincy was afraid of someone else grabbing this guy who's played in only 15 games since 2002 before their mid-round draft position. That Hamilton was chosen at all seems to have surprised those covering this event. But, yeah, those kind of trades - both before and after picks are made - are arranged all the time.

Yancy Street Gang wrote: Anyone know how often, percentage wise, these Rule 5 players make it through the season on the big league roster. I know it used to be pretty rare, but I think it's happened a few times recently. It's still real low - and likely to get even lower as the number of players eligible has been diminished by jacking up the protection time - but I don't have specific numbers. Even trying to dig into it would present some problems since not all the players who don't stick get returned back to the original club. Some get traded, some get offered back but not accepted, and often the two clubs work out side arrangements where the claiming team gets to send him down and still keep him in exchange for something else. In this case I think the Mets would grab him back if the opportunity presents itself. He's almost certain to be over his head in the majors this year but backup catcher (like situational LHP) may be the best position to hide someone like him. Johan Santana remains the holy grail of Rule 5 draftees. The Twins offered a minor league player in exchange for convincing someone with a high draft spot (Marlins?) to draft him off the Astros roster then send him along to Minnesota where he toiled in a spot role for a while before (about 4 years later) getting onto the road where he is now. Brilliant move, as it turns out, by the same GM who decided that David Ortiz was useless. Youneverknow

Minor League (AAA) Phase: * Mets lose RHP Moises Robles to the Pirates * Mets select LHP Ricardo Morales from the Nationals

Well, if you believe all the scuttlebutt, the Mets are more nervous about the years than the dollars - although I suppose you could argue it's all the same thing. What Boras/Zito reportedly are looking for is somewhere in the 6x$17 range to start and then maybe push it up from there by going the usual route of convincing each team that there's an un-named suitor on hold that minute ready and willing to go higher. Could I [you] live with that? ... I probably wouldn't swallow any harder on it than I did with the Beltran, Pedro or Wagner deals. Best line of the day yesterday was (NYDN's) Bill Madden saying that Boras is trying to convince the BoSox that he has a mystery country bidding on Matsuzaka.

Now all you have to do is convince Cliff & Shawn to assume each other's contract status and we'll be all set.

Mets lose catcher Jesus Flores to the Nationals. Known as a catch-and-throw guy with a questionable bat even in the minors means it's tough to see him sticking all year with the big club, although one scout said; "have you seen [the rest of] the Nationals roster?" The Mets did not select anyone. The entire draft: First Round Team: Player, Pos., Previous Org. 1. Devil Rays: Ryan Goleski, of, Indians (to be traded to Oakland) 2. Royals: Joakim Soria, rhp, Padres 3. Cubs: Josh Hamilton, of, Devil Rays 4. Pirates: Sean White, rhp, Pirates 5. Orioles: Alfredo Simon, rhp, Rangers 6. Nationals: Jesus Flores, c, Mets 7. Brewers: Edward Campusano, lhp, Cubs 15. Reds: Jared Burton, rhp, Athletics 17. Astros: Lincoln Holdzcom, rhp, Cubs 19. Phillies: Adam Donachie, c, Royals 20. Red Sox: Nick DeBarr, rhp, Devil Rays 21. Blue Jays: Jason Smith, ss, Cubs 23. Padres: Kevin Cameron, rhp, Twins 26. Athletics: Jay Marshall, lhp, White Sox 28. Twins: Alejandro Machado, if, Nationals 30. Yankees: Josh Phelps, 1b/dh, Orioles Second Round: 1. Nationals: Levale Speigner, rhp, Twins 2. Phillies: Jim Ed Warden, rhp, Indians Third Round: 1. Phillies: Ryan Budde, c, Angels The most intruiging pick of them all is the Cubs with Josh Hamilton. He's the former #1 overall draft pick (passed up Josh Beckett) and #1 overall BA prospect a year or so later whose career has fizzled over amid an avalanche of personal & drug problems. He's barely played at all over the last 4 seasons. I can't imagine him sticking w/the big club all year but maybe the Cubs are banking on the DRays not wanting him back so they can store him in their minor league system and hope the change of scenery straightens him out.

And here in Aisle 5 we have Gross Over-reactions

In the short term is almost certainly a good move for the Phils. But while we probably could have beaten that offer I'm not sure I would have liked it if we did. Braves also got into the trade market as they said all along they would: * LHP starter Horacio Ramirez to Seattle for RHP-reliever Raphael Soriano ... presumably to be their set-up man. Joe Borowski - closer for Florida last year - signs with Cleveland

Well, both Floyd & Gonzalez are/were considered pretty good prospects and remember also that Garcia is entering the final year before FA-gency. I don't know that this one will be universally praised in Phillyland. The few times I saw Garcia last year he wasn't looking all that good amid speculation that his velocity had dropped (his K-rates were down the last two years).

His control in the minors wasn't really a problem (individual games not- withstanding) and his ML career was too brief a sample size to judge. He's the type you wanted to root for since any success would have had an air of overachieving. Not a 1st-rounder like his pop (I think Floyd was a #1 overall) nor did he have the foresight to be born left-handed, he didn't even get a full-time scholarship to play ball in college. But a smart kid who made the most of what he had. I'd like to see him do well (just not as well as Bourgas)

Not signing but a significant trade: Freddie Garcia heads from Chicago's south side to Philly's south side in exchange for young hurler Gavin Floyd and a player to be named later. That'll take an option away from the Mets (and anyone else looking to trade for pitching). The ChiSox had made it known for a while that they were willing to deal an experienced pitcher due to the presence of young'un Brandon McCarthy. Now they've got two young'uns to choose from while presumably Buehrle, Contreras & Vazquez will stay put (at least for now).

1984RANKINGSPOINTSPLAYER30Dwight Gooden29Keith Hernandez28Jesse Orosco27Mookie Wilson26Darryl Strawberry25Hubie Brooks24Ron Darling23Doug Sisk22George Foster21Wally Backman20Bruce Berenyi19Sid Fernandez18Tom Gorman17Ed Lynch16Kelvin Chapman15Mike Fitzgerald14Brent Gaff13Walt Terrell12Rusty Staub11Danny Heep10Jose Oquendo9Raphael Santana8Ron Gardenhire7Tim Leary6Ray Knight5Ron Hodges4Wes Gardner3Herm Winningham2Junior Ortiz1Craig Swan

1983RANKINGSPOINTSPLAYER30Jesse Orosco29Darryl Strawberry28Keith Hernandez27Mookie Wilson26George Foster25Carlos Diaz24Doug Sisk23Tom Seaver22Jubie Brooks21Ed Lynch20Walt Terrell19Mike Torrez18Scott Holman17Brian Giles16Danny Heep15Ron Hodges14Bob Bailor13Dave Kingman12Rusty Staub11Craig Swan10Ron Darling9Tom Gorman8Jose Oquendo7Junior Ortiz6Gary Rajisch5Mark Bradley4Ronn Reynolds3Mike Jorgensen2Tucker Ashford1Neil Allen1983 RankingsPOINTSPLAYER 30Jesse Orosco29Daryl Strawberry28Keith Hernandez27Mookie Wilson26George Foster25Carlos Diaz24Doug Sisk23Tom Seaver22Hubie Brooks21Ed Lynch20Walt Terrell19Mike Torrez18Scott Holman17Brian Giles16Danny Heep15Ron Hodges14Bob Bailor13Dave Kingman12Rusty Staub11Craig Swan10Ron Darling9Tom Gorman8Jose Oquendo7Junior Ortiz6Gary Rajsich5Mark Bradley4Ronn Reynolds3Mike Jorgensen2Tucker Ashford1Neil Allen

Rany Jazayeli, Baseball Prospectus's resident Royals fan, weighs in on the trade with the kind of exasperation one might expect from a KC fan of this era.