Frayed Knot

Before it falls off the back end of the main forum and into archive-land, there is an existing thread, started just under one year ago, mulling over the ongoing and early years of the Cohen stewardship if anyone wants to revive it and continue discussions/points already raised. https://phpbb3.leaptoad.com/mets/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=33009https://phpbb3.leaptoad.com/mets/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=33009 (or page 21 of the Baseball Forum if the link doesn't work for some reason)

The Hot Corner wrote: My Plan B would likely be Bregman, solid defense and 6 years younger than Arenado. Doesn't cost prospects in trade. Arenado would be a possible Plan C. His age and his diminished power concern me and the Cardinals are likely going to want 1-2 good prospects for him. Two weeks short of three years younger actually. Arenado - 34 in April Bregman - 31 in March

And Alderson was the one choice they had foisted upon them, or at least it was more MLB's pick then it was the 'Pons..

So without redoing the whole chart again but using OPS+ and assigning a 70 score in each season for the four players who were retired by their mid-30s (Mantle, Mathews, Cepeda, Jones), the progression looks like this: Age 26 avg OPS+ (for the group of nine) = 152 27 - 143 28 - 159 29 - 161 30 - 152 31 - 137 32 - 136 33 - 139 34 - 127 35 - 127 36 - 99 37 - 93 38 - 88 39 - 87 40 - 72 All of which pretty much echoes the general purpose yardstick that the first 'study' came up with: - first five years of the contract: expect greatness - middle five seasons: still real good but not quite as elite - final five seasons: hope for the best And if it helps any, Soto as compared to the others in his (just completed) age 25 season? MANTLE - 221* TROUT - 186 SOTO - 178 VLADDY Jr. - 166 CEPEDA - 165 ROBINSON - 164 --- average --- 157 MATHEWS - 154 HARPER - 133 CABRERA - 130 JONES - 127 GRIFFEY - 122 ... so he's off to a running start * best of his career (1957) after which the Yanx tried to cut his salary for not winning the Triple Crown like he had in '56 - guess they weren't impressed with the .512 OBA It was one of three seasons over 200 for The Mick, one of five over 195, and one of eight 177 or higher. Imagine if the fuckin' guy had taken care of himself and not trusted a bunch of quack doctors?

What a wacky career to date for Bellinger: - RoY at age 21, MVP at 23 - then injured his shoulder during a post-season HR celebration - was considered the Dodgers best defensive CF on their team and also their best defensive 1B (not your usual combination of defensive positions) and yet last season, at just age 28, got almost 19% of his PAs as a DH. - OPS numbers of 933, 814, 1035, =#FF0000]789, =#FF0000]542, 654, 881, and 751, which means that in half of the seasons in his eight year career his OPS has jumped or fallen over 200+ points (twice each way) from the previous year. Put another way, he had an OPS+ score of 167 and 44 just two years apart while in his mid-20s (2019 & 2021) - and still won't turn 30 until next July (meaning 2025 will be considered his age 29 season) Like I said when the Yanx swung the trade for Giancarlo Stanton: how well it works out depends on which version you get.

=MFS62 post_id=181275 time=1734472918 user_id=60]... in exchange for right-handed pitcher Cody Poteet.

White was my Yanqui fan/next door neighbor's favorite player, at least pre Thurman Munson. Rarely got hurt, walked more often than he K'd, decent BA, good glove. And he hung around for fifteen seasons, most of them playing everyday or close to it. He'd be a nice stealth answer to an Immaculate Grid >6.0 WAR category. He put up 6.8 & 6.7 in back to back years (1970 & '71) About the worst thing you can say about him was that he was forced into LF because of a weak throwing arm and didn't give you the power you'd like from that position (only once topped 20) even for the 1970s.

Yeah, Papi's issue was foot pain. Trout told him he couldn't retire off the season he was having. Ortiz's reply was 'OK, let me use your feet and I won't'

Lefty Specialist wrote: I'd take a .825 OPS from Soto when he's 37. Yeah that age 37 from the combined Soto doppelgängers was a sudden 100 point OPS jump of an outlier, probably due to a bunch of guys taking their declining numbers with them as they cut out at age 36 (Mantle, Mathews, & Cepeda, plus Jones at age 35) leaving just a trio of survivors: Griffey, Cabrera, and Frank Robby. By the next year their combined numbers had all dropped to league average too.

In Mantle's declining years ('65 and onward) his BA and power were down but not his walk rate which I can only surmise was due to pitchers/managers being still wary of his power combined with the Yanx no longer having anyone else in the lineup who scared anyone. Berra was retired, Maris in StL, Elston Howard was 37 by '66, etc., and Roy White and Horace Clarke weren't exactly equivalent replacements. So his walk rates in his final four seasons actually climbed as he aged, from 124, to 111, 146, and 148!! All, except the 111 in '66, were higher than what he was doing in his prime. Despite it being widely speculated that 1968 was going to be his last season (with Denny McLain asking him where he wanted the pitch for the HR that broke his tie with Jimmie Foxx and all that) he didn't officially call it quits until the following spring so he was aware of the rules changes even if not in if/how much they'd change things. So he did go to ST in '69 but quickly realized he was done and called off the jam a few weeks prior to the season starting. Bouton made mention of it in the ST chapters of BALL FOUR

Would Mantle's career have lasted longer with a DH option? Probably. But it wasn't going to do much to stop his offensive plummet from a career OPS of 1011 over the first 14 years of his career (ages 19 - 32) to 836 over his final four (33 - 36). Now Mick had the added problem of not taking very good care of himself and hopefully our new RF'er is smart enough to do so (he could scarcely do worse). But the idea here is to try and guesstimate what kind of hitter Soto will be 5, 10, 15 seasons from now. What position he plays isn't going to be the issue.

Hitting is hitting whether it says DH next to your name on the lineup card or RF or LF or 1B The DH may allow one to get more ABs in a season or play more seasons but it's not going to give you a boost in getting on base or slugging.

So Tom Boswell touched on this topic a bit in an article linked here [in the HOF Wing thread] but in doing so he gave the impression of someone cherry-picking evidence so as to fit his pre-determined conclusion, namely that the ravages of time, injuries, and age would leave the Mets with an albatross of a contract in Mr. Soto's later years. So I thought I'd try to get a somewhat more detailed blueprint of how the next 15 seasons might go for him. Step one: Get the list of Soto's ten most comparable players [acc to BB-Ref] through his/their age 25 seasons. You've probably heard of most of them (in order): Bryce Harper, Frank Robinson, Ken Griffey Jr., Mike Trout, Andruw Jones, Eddie Mathews, Miguel Cabrera, Mickey Mantle, Orlando Cepeda, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Not surprisingly the average OPS for Soto in his age 24 & 25 seasons (2023 & '24) is right about equal to that of the combined avg of the above crew (959.5 vs 955) at the same age (they'd hardly be his closest statistical matches if it wasn't at least close). Step two: So if Soto's OPS was near identical to that of the group of ten combined, let's see what their avg OPS was over the remainder of their careers and use that as a predictor of how he'll progress/regress: AGEOPSAGEOPSAGEOPS 269522790828961 299713092731855 328653387734836 358183672737825 387293975040605 Should also point out that those average OPS's are calculated via a decreasing sample size as the ages march on. In fact it's really only a group of nine looking forward since Vladdy Jr is actually a few months younger than Soto so is also just now going into his age 26 season. Bryce Harper just played his age 31 season so he's blank after that. Trout's numbers drop out after 32; Andruw's after 35, and Mathews, Mantle, and Cepeda saw their final ML season at age 36. So from age 37 thru 40 it's down to just a trio of comps: Robinson, Griffey, and Cabrera. For a reference point, the avg ML OPS for the most recent ten full seasons (2014 - 2024 excluding 2020) in 727.5 with a high of 758 (2019) and a low of 700 (2014) So we can see that the average of the Soto-ish group peaked at age 29 and was above 900 OPS for each year through age 30 but then dipped below 900 and never returned. The group kept themselves above league average from age 31 thru 35 but then mostly around average from 36 through 39 before taking a dive at age 40. So how about age 41 since that will be Soto's age in the final year of his deal? Dunno, as none of the others from that list who have already reached age 41 were still playing ball at age 41. So what does all this prove? Well of course it doesn't prove anything since, as always, your mileage may vary and past performance is no guarantee of future results and all that other disclaimer stuff. But if the remainder of his career mimics the typical one of his current closest comps then maybe the best way to think about it is to divide this contract into thirds. In the first five years we should expect a superstar performer. In the middle third still very good results but less likely to produce monster seasons. Then in the final five year segment he's more likely to be a $51 million/yr league average player with more days off and more frequent uses of the phrase; 'So how much money would we have to eat in order to deal him to ______?'

Takes the ball regularly which is always a good thing: 31, 32, 12 (Covid yr), 33, 25, 33, and 30 starts since his first full season in 2018 Decent WHIP numbers as well.

=whippoorwill post_id=181099 time=1734185583 user_id=79] Really you didn't think so? They stood at 5 or whatever until they finally got to Jerry Koosman

I'm not worried about him declining in years one or two of the deal when he'll be only 30 & 31; it's more a potential year six thru eight that's the issue. I can live with five no matter how it's structured as getting through at least year four with Pete at or near his current self is a gamble I'd be willing to take. You can always eat a year or two of a contract without compromising elsewhere. It's those multiple years that become tough to chew.

So this smells of the Astros seeing their core of the last decade getting old and so preemptively act by dealing a star player one year short of FA-gency in hopes of getting several who'll be six years short. iow, reloading on the fly so as to not need to go to rock bottom and wait for the long rebound. Sound strategy ... if it works.

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: wright for sure. Nobody else for a long time. Not even #52 for Weisman?

They were rightfully so stingy with # Retirements for so long. I'm not happy that the Mets are finally retiring so many numbers and I think a few of the ones they've done are the right ones.

I'd offer this and be surprised if he didn't snap it up. I didn't know you had $130-$135 million to offer. Mazel Tov!

The Puma (NYP) reports that the Mets were in talks for Crochet and ChiSox asked the Mets for four prospects including RHP Brandon Sproat (mlb.com's #40 overall prospect) The package from Boston was highlighted by the #25 overall, catcher Kyle Teel, and #54 overall OF Braden Montgomery plus two lower names. So it would have taken Sproat and at least one of the other upper names that most of us know [Mauricio, Jett, Gilbert, Acuna] for two years of a guy considered on the rise but without a lengthy track record behind him. But you gotta give up to get and it appears that Boston gave up some promising young talent. On the other hand I remember the last big swap meet of Red and White socks was when Boston also dealt four prospects to the Windy City for Chris Sale eight winters ago. The main bait then was top Yoan Moncada and 2014 1st round (33rd overall) draft pick Michael Kopech. Moncada was teh main guy but he went on to have just one good/full season, in 2019 as a 24 y/o. After that it was mostly missed time due to injuries and a lot more strikeouts than hitting. Chicago non-tendered him last month. They got more regular, but mostly mediocre, use out of Kopech and the ChiSox traded him to the Dodgers at this year's trade deadline. Of course sale missed a ton of time too [all of '20 and most of '21 & '22] but at least he was good when available.

I thought having a uniform number as part of your contract was a bit odd, but then I remember that Gary Carter was all gung ho about keeping his #8 during the negotiations for him to approve the trade that he insisted it go in the contract. Frank Cashen said later that when Carter kept talking about keeping #8 he thought he was referring to clause #8 in his existing contract and Cashen wondered what was in that clause that Gary was so hung up on. He was relieved when he realized it was just about the uni number. Supposedly the suite thing was something that the Yanx refused to concede to Soto and it may have wound up being the tipping point in favor of him choosing the Mets.

Well it's not like he's ever denied it. He's said it into microphones, written it out over social media posts, and said as much amid drunken Irishmen in a pub. But there's wanting to stay here vs possibly giving up something to do so, and he certainly should be well aware that this could be his last contract in baseball. If someone offers him six years is he going to stay here for five? ... Probably not IMO. How about if someone else goes to seven? ... Oh **** No! is my guess. He's going to get a dump truck full of money in any case. But if offered a dump truck full of money vs 1.28 dump trucks full of money* which are you taking? * essentially the difference between a five year and seven year deal at similar per year terms Now, if someone does go to six years will the Mets chase that number? ... Maybe. Will they match it if things go to seven? I highly doubt it, and I'm not sure I'd want them to. So that's basically where we stand at this point, with the always relevant 'Whatthe****doIknow' corollary in effect.

That kind of structure has appeal for both sides. Pete gets the security of a five year deal plus if he puts together a couple good seasons he has the option to go FA again when he'll still be young enough at 32 y/o to get a multi-year offer. And the Mets get to keep their power guy without having to commit to the back half of his 30s As I said earlier on this thread, I thought the Mets w/should play it as if they were willing to let Pete walk if someone else was going to go north of five years. It's starting to sound like, unless someone is hiding in the weeds waiting for their moment, that teams are reluctant to go there.

Surprised he never became a Yankee. He did. The Bronx-born Colavito played his final 39 games for the Yanx in the second half of 1968. Great all-around athlete who possessed one of the legendary throwing arms from RF. Birth name: Rocco Domenico Colavito I think he was Irish.