Frayed Knot

Let me guess, those Curtis Granderson vision problems suddenly popped up between the end of his 43 HR season and the beginning of the playoffs, right? Baseball Prospectus did a wonderful skewering of the overly-simplistic Daily News 'Keep 'em or Dump 'em' poll essentially by just letting the results speak for themselves.

I actually think that most insider-y baseball cover-ers, writers, and other keepers of the flame have long since come around to the idea that the TC stats and pitcher Wins aren't the alpha and omega of player evaluations. It's more the all-purpose sports guy who says, 'yeah I followed baseball as a kid but now that I'm an adult I spend all my time following sports involving players under age 21 cuz that's what we do here in Bristol, Connecticut'. Plus there's all that time needed for studying betting lines and updating fantasy football rosters so there's no time for silly little baseball. In their minds they knew everything there was to know about that sport by the time they were ten. Those were the ones most likely to have registered shock when Felix Hernandez won his CY a few years back with just 13 wins and are screaming the loudest now at even the thought of Cabrera not winning the MVP. But most in that crowd, by their own admission, have paid only passing attention to baseball in twenty years or more so they simply treat whatever changes in thinking that have taken place since then to be geeky nonsense because it puts them on the outside looking in and because it runs counter to what they knew to be true long before some of these guys telling them otherwise were even born. The good news about that crowd is that they don't vote in these things. The bad news is that they often have the loudest voices.

Anybody here have Barry Zito taking his AB in the 7th inning? Yeah, I didn't think so and I didn't either, but he just did. I mean, sure, he struck out, but just the fact that he took it was certainly unforeseeable. 4-0 Giants in top 7 -- although the Cards just brought in this Rosenthal guy and he's K'd 4 in a row on like 13 pitches and now gets an infield pop from Pagan. Giants have been throwing around the leather in this game.

Yeah, that's a pretty good list 2004 (ALCS): Blowing a 3-0 lead and all the crazy shit along the way will never be topped. So much fuckin drama in that series, I remember we had a great and lengthy thread going to whole time. And remember that the comeback started after a Game 3 MFY blowout 2001 (WS): Stunner for sure. I had made a joke prior to the series even starting that the Yanx were going to get out-scored overall by a big margin but win anyway. It damn near came true. 2002 (ALDS): 3-1 to Angels and rookie sensation Francisco Rodriguez. Remember being positively giddy about this. Losing this one made it tougher to write off the previous year as just a fluke. That era Angels team were the only ones to hold a winning record against the Torre-era Yanx so some fans weren't so surprised when this happened. 2010 (ALCS): Spanked by Rangers in 6 who score 5-7-8-10-2-6 runs. Coming off the '09 WS many were convinced this one was in the bag because they never lost to the Rangers ... as if the results from ten years earlier somehow carried over as some kind of jinx. 2003 (WS): I don't like the Marlins but loved them then as they won in 6. Like this year, recrimination awaits goats (Wells) Beckett in game 6 And then I might throw in the '97 ALCS and Sandy Jr's HR off Mariano

Frayed Knot wrote: ... or as if believing in these stats somehow automatically incorporates observational judgement stats while believing in those stats automatically excludes it. I caught a radio interview with Brian Kenny (Kinney maybe?) of MLBN a few weeks back. The host, an admitted skeptic towards, or at least ignorant of, 'new stats' was given to backing Cabrera for MVP simply out of habit but, to his credit, rather than deride the whole concept he knew Kenny would present (something Benigno, Russo, Francesa would do as a reflex) he simply challenged Kenny to make his case for Trout over Cabrera despite the TC season. Naturally part of Kenny's case (his view was not only for Trout over Cabrera but said it's not even close) involved things like the superiority of Trout's defense and base-running and he had a bunch of numbers to back his point including stuff like historically good rates of going 1st-to-3rd or 2nd-to-home on hits and getting to balls in the OF, SB rates, holding runners, etc. So in the process of it all he tried to put it into terms the non-believers could accept by explaining that this was just simply all the stuff 'old school' guys always talked about when discussing how good Mays was or about how Willie's game went far beyond the traditional stats because he did so many of the "little things" in addition to being at or near the top of the league in all the traditional categories. IOW, these new metrics Kenny was backing weren't a substitute for fan/critical observations they were merely a quantifying of and support for what the anti-stats folks think is missing from the newer approaches, and that the time-honored art of of watching the subtleties of the game are quite alive and well with the new regime even as it stomps all over the lawns of the old guard.

Which would be fine if they'd actually say that. But instead what they do is to frame it as a contest between those who believe in the superiority of the triple crown versus those who rely on "stats", as if the former isn't a subset of the latter; or as if believing in these stats somehow automatically incorporates observational judgement stats while believing in those stats automatically excludes it ["I don't read spreadsheets, I actually watch the games!!"]. If someone wants to argue that BA/HR/RBI are better stats than the "new age" ones they're deriding then they should make THAT case rather than treating the two as if they're two wholly different approaches.

I always like to check the newspaper the morning after the Yanx get eliminated just to make sure I wasn't the victim of some elaborate prank. So let's see here ... Yup, it really happened! OK, you may all now carry on with your days.

Last year it was Allen Craig and David Freese who nobody much had heard of prior to them starring in the post-season for StL This year it's Pete Kozma and Daniel DiScalso who nobody had much heard of before this year and now nobody can get them out. None of these guys are all that young or had a great amateur/minor league pedigree coming in, they just started succeeding once they got there.

2012 NYM Draft Review from BA http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/news/2012/2614209.html Mets hold the 11th overall pick in the 2013 draft btw.

MFS62 wrote: If you've been waiting to listen to Mike Francessa lose it again tomorrow, take some time to listen to Steven A. Smith on ESPN radio (NY). He has been just as bad a moaner as Francessa, but maybe twice as loud. And he uses "we" when referring to the team. It will be fun switching between the shows on my drive to work tomorrow to see who blows a gasket first. Later It is NEVER a good time to listen to Steven A. Smith If I needed the escape plans for the coming nuclear holocaust and his was the only station I could tune in I'd skip it and take my chances. Besides, Francesa, when I heard him the other day anyway, wasn't moaning at all - and that was on the day following that horrid call at 2nd base that screwed them. He spent his entire intro that day warning Yanqui fans against moaning telling them they had gotten enough breaks themselves over the years so crying about not getting them now wasn't an option.

Frayed Knot wrote: "Hey honey, is that goose just about cooked yet?" ""Yes it is dear"

"Hey honey, is that goose just about cooked yet?"

Gwreck wrote: The Cardinals and Tigers also matched up in 2006 (I know, probably no one here watched that one). That was the one where the Tigers finished up the ALCS early and had a week to sit around waiting for the NL winner. And then once the WS did start their pitchers made a ton of errors and virtually handed the Cards the series. The odd part about the whole thing was that Leyland had used that week off to do something that teams almost never do once the season starts; he had them working on pitchers fielding practice.

From the game thread: Benching A-Rod... great strategy until you realize... nobody else in your lineup will hit for you either. Girardi either has some dirt on the guy or has a chip on his shoulder the size of Texas. What a maniac. I can't think that Girardi is doing all this without either direct orders from or with prior approval of those above him. The first in-game PH-ing move was something I'm sure he did on his own, but the thrice benching since, no way.

Smoltz was on the verge of demeaning "new age stats" in the AL MVP argument but got cut off by the 3rd out before finishing his point. Here's the part that kills me about much of that kind of discussion: the folks making it are complaining that stats are taking preference over something like the Triple Crown while seeming to be totally ignorant of the fact that the TC itself is based on nothing but stats.

Tiggers aren't exactly smacking CC all over the lot, but they are bleeding him to death (or at least as far as the critical list) with bingles, some long counts, and with the help of some shaky MFY IF defense. Gotta be close to 80 pitches thru 3 for Sabathia even though he's only been nicked for 2 runs.

Edgy DC wrote: Can we get together? "Hells YEAH!" I say, but cooler than that. Well, in your head it was cooler than that.

[u:6yclver7]Game 4 - Take 2[/u:6yclver7] 4:00 TBS Same pitching match-ups and line-ups as the game never started last night -- aka No ARod, no Granderson

[u:d247yjpz]Game 4[/u:d247yjpz] 8:00 tonight. Anytime in the last five years, telling SF Giant fans that Tim Lincecum was going to be out there while their season was pretty much on the line would have been a good thing. Right now, though, it's pretty iffy even as he's been good in relief forcrissakes lately. Wainwright for the Cards Prediction: Some peanut vendor from section 356 will be called out of the stands and get an important hit with runners on for StL.

Just to play along with this silly speculation game here: - It's been, what, 8 years since he played SS? Guys about to turn 38 who have been off that position for so long aren't good bets to go back to it - Lord I can't see him handling 2nd base. Too big and too late in the game to learn the subtleties of that position - at 3B we of course have someone there (at least for now) although ARod played the position fairly well whenever I saw him this year. But then there's the problem of how often he can play it. He missed just over 1/4 of this past season to injuries and then DH'd more than 30% of the time when he was in the lineup. Now not all of those I'm sure were days that he had to DH or would have been unable to play at all, but shirley some of them were making him an even worse bet for an NL team.

The thing about any potential trade, over and above the myriad of other obstacles his age/contract/drama would bring that is, is that the Yanx' actions of these past few days make him that much tougher to deal and worth a whole lot lot less than he theoretically would have been just weeks ago.

Active (or pseudo-active) players who have higher career OBAs than Yost's .3940: Miguel Cabrera - .3947 Bobby Abreu - .3958 Nick Johnson - .3989 Chipper Jones - .4011 Jim Thome - .4019 Jason Giambi - .4034 Joe Mauer - .4050 Lance Berkman - .4086 Albert Pujols - .4141 Joey Votto - .4155 Todd Helton - .4189

Well Verlander always was set up for game 7, that hasn't changed because the date of game 7 hasn't changed (unless there are more rain-outs). What has changed is that CC's start moves from Wednesday to Thursday and the potential off-day between games 5 & 6 gets wiped out meaning that a potential Verlander-v-Sabathia match-up for game 7 sees Verlander with [u:1u7abzy6]Two[/u:1u7abzy6] extra days of rest compared to CC instead of just one. Of course this is all just gum-flapping because the good lord in heaven or the lucky chair in your TV room (whichever you choose to worship) won't let things get to that point.

MFS62 wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: Rain started falling about 90 minutes after the scheduled start time of 8 p.m., and a steady rain fell for hours afterward. Major League Baseball officials said the contest was postponed "in an effort to preserve the integrity of an uninterrupted full nine-inning game." More rain is forecast for the Detroit area on Thursday morning, but it is expected to clear up completely around noon. Where was that integrity when they allowed the NL game to start and then had an over 3 hour rain delay during the game? Or are we not allowed to ask that? Later To be fair, the rain didn't hit the NL game until the bottom of the 7th whereas in Detroit I think they had a pretty good idea it was coming soon than that. Could they have started anyway? -- Sure, and it would have ended about the 4th inning to be resumed today which would have taken out both starting pitchers. Then they would have had to either push the whole thing back a day anyway or played a game and a half today which brings in the question about what that does to Wednesday ticket holders. No simple solution here. Did the league somehow want to do the AL teams a favor while screwing the NL? -- Not sure why they'd want that. By going ahead with the NL contest it wound up screwing FOX's whole broadcast night to the point where first-run shows were canceled or interrupted and they pay the league a lot more money than what TBS shells out. TBS merely had to throw in a bunch of re-runs plus got to run Conan at his regular hour instead of delayed; it didn't hurt them in the slightest. Does this wind up helping 'the opponents'? -- Probably not. Yeah they were saved from using Sabathia for only half a game but it's not like the Tigers wanted that for Scherzer either. Plus, if the opponents have any chance at pulling this one out they were going to want CC to go in game 7 and now, with game 4 pushed back and the off-day between 5 & 6 removed, his potential start for game 7 just went from the already short 3 days rest down to 2. IOW, Phil Hughes, ladies and gentlemen, is your Game 7 starter for the team with the $200 million payroll!

Rain started falling about 90 minutes after the scheduled start time of 8 p.m., and a steady rain fell for hours afterward. Major League Baseball officials said the contest was postponed "in an effort to preserve the integrity of an uninterrupted full nine-inning game." More rain is forecast for the Detroit area on Thursday morning, but it is expected to clear up completely around noon.