Frayed Knot

Remember when Siri's rehab progress was "ahead of schedule"? That was about 35 months ago, I think.

Or even if he just sticks with the club for 6 or 7 seasons there's at least a 50/50 shot he'll be the last.

Torrens looked like he got his catching hand/wrist knocked around again at least once last night, maybe more. Tough to let it heal when it's taking a constant pounding. And eight straight games until the next day off so Senger may get several of them.

The 9th inning started last night with each team at a 50/50 win probability. Those odds are generic in that they don't take team strengths/weaknesses into consideration, home field advantage, or who the pitcher is/where the lineups are at, etc., just the fact that each team has the same number of half-innings left therefore equal odds. - Top 9: Diaz's 1-2-3 inning raised the NYM win odds, in succession, to 56%, 60%, 63% - Bottom 9: those odds were jacked up to 71% after Marte's single, then 81% (1st & 2nd), to 94% following Baty's flair, and obviously to 100% by Nimmo's single. So what that's telling us is that a team batting in B-9 in a tie game with bases loaded/no outs in a tie game still goes on to lose the game 6% of the time! My initial thought is that that seems high, especially as how it says that the number of times the home team fails to score from that situation [1-2-3/no outs] is higher still as even not scoring leaves them with a 50/50 shot at a 'W' via extras - so it's more like 12% of the time, or about one time in eight. Same with the 63% when B-9 starts: the home team typically scores the game-winner in B-9 only around 13% of the time (approx 1 game in 7) and, if not, they then go on to split the games where they don't score [13% + 50%]. But I guess when you see your team not score from one of those situations you think they blew the equivalent of an uncontested lay-up when it actually happens much more often than that. We just don't curse, throw things around the room, and demand that someone be fired immediately when it happens to someone else. And most of the time we don't even notice when it happens during someone else's game.

Taijuan Walker is the party of the other part (as Groucho would have put it). He was relegated to the bullpen for a time mid-year but has been back starting since early July and pitching fairly well although his last five starts have included games vs WAS, WAS, BAL, CHW (and CIN) so kind of a soft landing. Overall 27 G/16 starts; 3.44 ERA; 1.28 WHIP

The closest they’ve come was the May 23 game against LA, scoring 3 in the bottom of the 9th to tie the game and force extras (losing in the 13th). That was the game that sent me running to BB-Ref to see if any team in the (brief but already too long) clown car rules era had ever failed to score even a single in each of the 10th, 11th, 12th and 13th innings despite the gift runner on 2nd. The answer was, yes (six - eight times IIRC), but not many.

I was going to ask if permission to post this was granted ahead of time. May looks to be a tough month schedule-wise (for us and the players). - it starts out with nine PDT road games at LAA, COL, ARZ which, because the SoCal teams and Arizona usually play their Saturday games at night, likely gives us only two day games out of nine (the two Sundays) or maybe a third with the final Wednesday in COL - then, after a travel day to adjust, 16 straight days without an off day: DET (3 at Home), NYY (3-H), WAS (A-4), MIA (A-3), CIN (H-3) - then one day off, a three-game set vs MIA at CitiField, then right back out west for SEA - SDP

Edgy MD wrote: Marsh, by the way, should have [CROSSOUT]dove[/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT]dived[/CROSSOUT] diven. On Baty's hit or Nimmo's? Can't do it on Baty's cuz it's the game if he misses it. And I don't think he was anywhere near close enough to Nimmo's. Marsh always seemed like an odd duck to me ... and not just for his Duck Dynasty haircut. (does he walk around with wet hair at home too?) He was a good-field/low-hit guy in Anaheim. The Phils got him and he stabilized CF for them while, simultaneously, becoming a much better hitter. But not only has his offense slipped in each of the last two seasons (his best year was '23) so has his 'D' according to everything I've heard; it's why they went out and got Bader. Now he's a much better than average in LF but his [97 OPS+] bat works even less over there than in CF. And while it seems like he's a guy currently in the midst of a late career decline, he's still just 27 y/o!! It's like he's gone from the career ascension phase to the declining one in under five years.

Frayed Knot wrote: Marte, Alonso, and [CROSSOUT]Nimmo[/CROSSOUT] Baty have been sent by their government to pummel Jhoan Duran. BARBARELLA POWER!!!

NOW I might bunt. Boy, THAT would be a gutsy call!!

I DON'T bunt here.

Marte, Alonso, and [CROSSOUT]Nimmo[/CROSSOUT] Baty have been sent by their government to pummel Jhoan Duran.

I like this 'fast working' version of Diaz

Frayed Knot wrote: And it's time for our nightly statement about how THIS would be a nice time for a signature moment from Soto. Nope!

And it's time for our nightly statement about how THIS would be a nice time for a signature moment from Soto.

Another long game. On the verge of three hours with two or three half-innings to go ... at least! But we've got two ups to their one so this works in our favor. otoh, Schwarber - Harper - Realmuto

Pete really belted Orion. A three star performance if you ask me.

Philly defense starting to leak oil again.

=Cowtipper post_id=202391 time=1756253284 user_id=166] Gary just mentioned Grimace. 2024 had Grimace, OMG, etc. Has this year had anything like that?

At the end of the season someone from the team has to gift Torrens something which has the names of all the guys he's gunned down trying to steal. 8/26, 4th inning, Bryce Harper, 2nd base etc Etched onto metal, cared in leather, burnt in wood, something along those lines.

Name dropped by Keith Hernandez AND Warren Zevon [media=youtube]0-xau9j5tOI[/media] OK, so Zevon never actually mentions Phil (we were close so I call him Phil) by name but the song was inspired by him so I'm counting it.

The 1st, 3rd, and 4th 'balls' to Soto could have all been strikes.

Like last week maybe, when Kruk asked his partner how the guy who invented the first clock knew what time it was.

Jose Castillo faced two batters getting three outs on three pitches that took close to twenty minutes to throw. But he got the 'W' for his efforts!

There was NOTHING!!!! in the first four innings that even slightly indicated was to come in the final five. I was a few minutes from deciding I'd rather rearrange my sock drawer than watch the remainder of the game when the script suddenly flipped. A million hits (most with two outs), walks, good defense, and a near-perfect pen came out of absolutely nowhere. Down 3-0 I wasn't sure they were going to score four times in the series and they wind up with 13 in half a game. Go figure. The only downside remains Senga. No change, no improvement, and the picture doesn't look promising going forward.