fivethirtyeight.com on the NL East: The NL East Is Suddenly Very Interesting Excerpt: That brings us to New York, which in March was (on paper) the best bet to steal the division away from the Braves. The Mets have the division's most expensive roster, thanks in no small part to the offseason acquisition of shortstop Francisco Lindor (who makes $22 million this year, and is due another $341 million over the following 10 years). With it, they seem to have more than enough top-tier talent to rank among the MLB's best teams, provided they're all healthy and in the lineup together. These being the Mets, though, health of course has been an issue. Jacob deGrom was having an all-time pitching season before he hit the injured list in mid-July with forearm tightness, causing him to miss about a half-dozen starts. He's just the biggest headliner in a group that, going into August, had lost the most production to injury of any club in MLB this year. In a press conference this week, acting general manager Zack Scott heaped a lot of the blame on his players for their own injuries, which was a pretty bad look. But it's undeniable that the Mets' efforts to expand — and then merely hold on to — their division lead have been greatly hampered by the procession of star absences. So too did Scott call out an anemic New York offense that ranks 28th in scoring, with 3.80 runs per game on the season and just 3.36 in the month of August. While it was glaring earlier in the season that this team was scoring less than we would expect based on its underlying stats, that's actually less true now — and the hard-luck explanation is harder to accept now that we've seen four-plus months of this team trying (and failing) to hit. Alonso has done his part to prevent those struggles. Including Thursday's walk-off home run against the Nats, he's been 25 percent better at the plate than league average by weighted runs created plus (wRC+) so far this season. But he's also one of just four New York hitters (joining Jonathan Villar, Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo) with 150 or more plate appearances and a wRC+ above average this year. (Even newcomer Javier Báez, acquired from the Cubs at the deadline, has done little since homering in his first game as a Met.)4 Most of the players the Mets have been counting on to produce offense have not delivered, which is a big reason that their division hopes have stalled out late in the season. What's interesting about the Mets in the big-picture view is that, of the three clubs vying for the NL East right now, they made the World Series most recently, last appearing in 2015 (compared with 2009 for Philadelphia and 1999 for Atlanta). That's recent enough — and most of that 2015 team's core was young enough — that you might expect the current Mets to be a continuation of that group's arc. But it's not true. DeGrom and Michael Conforto are the only remaining members of that team to appear for the Mets in 2021 so far.5 Instead, this is a team mostly cobbled together just as recently as when the Phillies' and Braves' rebuilds yielded their fruits. In turn, that may make this year's potential collapse even less palatable, since it's hardly the last gasp of some aging, once-great core: Theoretically, these Mets should be in their division-chasing prime. With plenty of time left in the regular season, that may still yet be true. But it's also true that the Phillies and Braves have very much caught up with their division rivals to the north. That should help produce a desperate battle for the playoffs over the rest of the schedule, since there's almost no chance that the East's runner-up could be good enough to snag a wild-card consolation prize if it doesn't win the division. The Phillies, Mets and Braves have all taken very different roads over the past decade to find themselves here, but now there is just one prize they're eyeing as they look ahead to the stretch run. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-nl-east-is-suddenly-very-interesting/https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-nl-east-is-suddenly-very-interesting/