batmagadanleadoff

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: Progressive Field - least I have no idea what stadium that is. Stupid corporate names. Tokyo Dome - least. And that stadium in Monterey, Mexico, where the Padres demolished the Mets about 30 years ago - least.

Wrigley Field - most category.

Not to beat a dead horse to death, but here goes anyways. I'll simplify this: The NFL plays a tiny 17 game regular season. That means that each win in the NFL is worth 58 winning percentage points (.058). One divided by 17 is .058. Up until 2020, the NFL played a 16 game season. One win in a 16 game season is worth 63 winning percentage points (.0625). So one NFL win is worth about 60 percentage points. An NFL team that got lucky by just two wins ... an NFL team that exceeded its Pythagorean Win Expectancy (if such a thing existed in the NFL) by just two games ... an NFL team that won two games that it should not have won ... would have a winning percentage that's about 120 points higher than what it should be. 120 points. And that's why you have NFL teams finishing with .800 winning percentages. It's not the fucking prospects. Small sample sizes are unreliable: they yield extreme statistical results.

=Centerfield post_id=189342 time=1744306816 user_id=65] Some food for thought. This was much less random than I would have guessed. NFL Super Bowl Participants. Super Bowl 2025: 2 Seed vs. 2 seed. Super Bowl 2024: 1 Seed vs. 2 Seed Super Bowl 2023: 1 Seed vs. 1 Seed Super Bowl 2022: 4 Seed vs. 4 Seed Super Bowl 2021: 1 Seed vs. 5 Seed Super Bowl 2020: 1 Seed vs. 2 Seed Super Bowl 2019: 2 Seed vs. 2 Seed Super Bowl 2018: 1 Seed vs. 1 Seed Super Bowl 2017: 1 Seed vs. 2 Seed Super Bowl 2016: 1 Seed vs. 1 Seed Out of 20 possible participants, 10 of them were 1 seeds, another 7 were 2 seeds. Only 3 teams that were not a 1 or 2 seed made the final game. Good teams win in the NFL playoffs. World Series 2024: 1 seed vs. 1 seed World Series 2023: 5 seed vs. 6 Seed World Series 2022: 1 seed vs. 6 Seed World Series 2021: 2 Seed vs. 3 Seed World Series 2020: 1 Seed vs 1 Seed World Series 2019: 1 Seed vs. 4 Seed World Series 2018: 1 Seed vs. 2 Seed World Series 2017: 1 Seed vs. 2 Seed World Series 2016: 1 Seed vs. 2 Seed World Series 2015: 1 Seed vs. 3 Seed Out of 20 possible participants, 10 of them were 1 seeds. 4 were 2 seeds. 6 teams that were not a 1 or 2 seed made it to the World Series. So a little more random than the NFL, but not nearly as random as I would have thought.

=Centerfield post_id=189258 time=1744220445 user_id=65] I think small sample size is only part of the reason win percentages are higher.

Edgy MD wrote: =Centerfield post_id=189258 time=1744220445 user_id=65] I think small sample size is only part of the reason win percentages are higher. I certainly agree. =Centerfield post_id=189258 time=1744220445 user_id=65] Football and basketball are far less random than baseball.

=Centerfield post_id=189258 time=1744220445 user_id=65] I think small sample size is only part of the reason win percentages are higher.

Edgy MD wrote: You are moving the goalposts here. I return the thread to its creator. No you are. Its your specialty. But re-check my last post. I added a new last sentence while you were posting.

Edgy MD wrote: As for "lower-round gems," that reinforces the point that highly rated prospects are less reliable bets to succeed in baseball. It does not dispute it. So what? What the hell does that have to do with WL records? THAT was your point. And that was clearly the point I addressed.

No it doesn't. And what's the evidence anyways that baseball prospects pan out at a lower rate (not that it matters here)? And for every high first round bust, there's a later round gem.

Edgy MD wrote: That is why you play the games. A lot of good players will not prosper at the big-level, mostly because a lot of other good players are dead set on stopping them. If one guy fails, you hopefully wish him well as you root that the next guy does not, all the while knowing that it is better than even money that you are going to be disappointed. The very best teams in football win about 80% of the time. The very best teams in basketball, about 70%. But the best teams in baseball win about 60% of the time. The likelihood that a top prospect becomes a top player is similarly skewed. It is a game with frustration wired into the framework. This has nothing to do with the chances of prospects panning out. The best NFL teams have higher winning percentages because they play a relatively tiny amount of games. Small sample sizes. 17 game season. That's a little less than three weeks worth of baseball games. The best baseball teams have lower winning percentages than their NBA counterparts because the MLB season is twice as long and because there's way more luck in baseball than in basketball. Small sample sizes and randomness. It's why Wilmer Flores can hit a HR every three games for about a 10 game stretch but will never maintain that pace over 162 games. If the baseball season was three games long, the teams with the best records would have perfect undefeated records. If the baseball season was one game long, half the teams would be undefeated.

https://www.google.com/maps/@40.8244341,-73.8493279,3a,30y,307.25h,91.92t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1s1OPCQIVwauc-tSMyT6Nfhg!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fcb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile%26w%3D900%26h%3D600%26pitch%3D-1.9188173129504946%26panoid%3D1OPCQIVwauc-tSMyT6Nfhg%26yaw%3D307.25451504062937!7i16384!8i8192?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI1MDQwNi4wIKXMDSoJLDEwMjExNDU1SAFQAw%3D%3Dhttps://www.google.com/maps/@40.8244341,-73.8493279,3a,30y,307.25h,91.92t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1s1OPCQIVwauc-tSMyT6Nfhg!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fcb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile%26w%3D900%26h%3D600%26pitch%3D-1.9188173129504946%26panoid%3D1OPCQIVwauc-tSMyT6Nfhg%26yaw%3D307.25451504062937!7i16384!8i8192?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI1MDQwNi4wIKXMDSoJLDEwMjExNDU1SAFQAw%3D%3D Google says the building with the driving school is 847 Castle Hill Avenue, and he listed 847 Castle Hill Road as his address in 1962. Any Bronx boys here, or fans who've made the pilgrimage? Tomorrow, maybe you can start a thread about Brian Ostrosser's boyhood home. Whaddya say?

There used to be a statue of Kranepool in front of the old Carnegie Deli. Kranepool reportedly once went there to have a corned beef sandwich. But the statue was taken down when the eatery closed permanently a few years ago. How grim, Grimm.

Yeah. It was on my bucket list. I couldn't wait to go to the fucking Bronx to visit a driving school just because Ed Kranepool might've lived there 75 years ago. And what's so grim?

=G-Fafif post_id=189194 time=1744199232 user_id=55] First-place Mets, btw.

I've decided not to give a flying fuck about the Rizzler. It's so much easier that way.

Can someone explain it to me in text so as to allow me to not have to watch a video ? Because I hate shit like this Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: The Rizzler brings the boom with the Costco Guys, Big Boom AJ and Big Justice. They all were somewhat wholesome and funny at first but they've gone so cringe lately. Plus I hate that Mama Justice and Ashley got involved. Former child star trauma coming. The Rizzler is a Mets fan irl. The Costco Guys are Yankees fans. Thanks. It's all so clear now.

Yeah. Like the Marlins are gonna trade Alcantra to a division rival.

=G-Fafif post_id=188890 time=1743966379 user_id=55] Davey often dropping Mookie from the leadoff slot in 1984 felt counterintuitive because the speediest guy *always* batted first in that era, but the emphasis he chose to place on OBP (which wasn't exactly Mookie's calling card) definitely represented innovative thinking.

Screw Alcantra. The Mets are, hopefully, hoarding their prospects for Paul Skenes. If that guy's still a Pirate in 2028, it'll be a miracle.

Bleacher creatures is too kind a description of them. Later Gimme a break. This is fun. Especially to a Mets fan.

Edgy MD wrote: I think the wear on pitchers arms is a secondary concern to the desire to not have to keep the ballpark operating and the power on indefinitely for the odd marathon game. This. Owners have secretly hated extra innings since time immemorial. They've already gotten most of your money by the sixth or seventh inning and getting your money is what they mostly care about. That's what business is: getting as much of your money while giving you as little as possible in return. There's only so many hot dogs a body can eat, even if the game goes into extras. And extra innings means keeping the lights on longer and paying workers overtime. It's about the money and everything else is a distraction. What wear and tear on pitchers? Today, it's a minor miracle when a starter takes the mound for the sixth inning.

Oh my god. If I told youse that Baty would go hitless in yesterday's game, could youse ever have imagined that the Mets would win? Just shoot me. It ain't just Baty, and it ain't just yesterday. Lindor looks more helpless than he did last year, which is barely possible. Did you hear what Keith said when he thought the mic was cold?https://www.audacy.com/wfan/sports/mets/hot-mic-catches-keith-hernandez-lamenting-mets-bats?utm_campaign=www.audacy.com%252Fwfan&utm_content=1743687545&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_term=WFAN-AM&fbclid=IwY2xjawJbw0BleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHe5rmtZsRHE2xDX2LrKgM4ImwOmfn6zksZmyW4-2xwL7pBEIEqlhHmq42w_aem_wiQJ-AFLY3liRXeTYh3HaQhttps://www.audacy.com/wfan/sports/mets/hot-mic-catches-keith-hernandez-lamenting-mets-bats?utm_campaign=www.audacy.com%252Fwfan&utm_content=1743687545&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_term=WFAN-AM&fbclid=IwY2xjawJbw0BleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHe5rmtZsRHE2xDX2LrKgM4ImwOmfn6zksZmyW4-2xwL7pBEIEqlhHmq42w_aem_wiQJ-AFLY3liRXeTYh3HaQ Keith is a baseball god who's bad with numbers. Also, Wilmer Flores is on pace to hit 100 HRs.

Oh my god. If I told youse that Baty would go hitless in yesterday's game, could youse ever have imagined that the Mets would win? Just shoot me.

...that we'd open the season with Lindor, Vientos, and Baty deep into terrible slumps, how many games would you guess we'd have won by now? I'm stuck between "0" and "maybe 1." [media=youtube]NtBZXaHZv3o[/media]