Mex17

Edgy MD wrote: We could be looking at Puello in the second half of the season. Maybe den Dekker too. Puello isn't drawing many walks despite his high OBP (I think that some HBPs are padding that), so that is a bit of a concern of mine about him. Then there is the whole Biogenesis cloud hanging over him. Has den Dekker even played yet?

Next, first base. Hopefully Ike rebounds, but if he spits the bit, non tender him (saving around $3-4 million) and move on. James Loney is a free agent after the year and is quietly doing very well for the Rays. The only real bad season he had was 2012, so maybe you just chalk that up to whatever (like playing for two dysfunctional teams that year). He is 29 and is making $2 million this year, but he would be due for a pretty big raise. I would be willing to speculate that something between three years for $21 million to four years for $32 million gets him. So that covers having two lefties for the middle of the order, IMO. As for adding new rightys, we already have them in Flores and d'Arnaud. Sitck them in the Opening Day lineup and let them go. Granted, it's high risk, but it's also high reward. It also has the added benefits of making Murphy trade bait for extra pieces (and taking his arb elibigle salary off the books) as well as their rookie minimum salaries offsetting Choo and Loney. I think that Young is a keeper for LF and the leadoff spot, and I am cool with letting Lagares and/or Nieuwenhuis cover CF while hopefully developing at the plate (so long as they are lower in the order so there is not a reliance on them). I have not totally given up on Tejada, and Quntanilla can stick around to motivate him. So there you go. Thoughts?

Admit it, wouldn't you LOVE to keep all these pitchers? Imagine a top four going into next year of Harvey/Wheeler/Niece/Gee with Hefner and Montero battling for the last spot and Syndergaard waiting in the wings. Not to mention Parnell closing with Familia/Leathersich/Edgin setting up. I think that there is a way to keep all of them while still building a good lineup for 2014. It won't be by landing a "slam dunk stud" like Stanton or CarGo, and will take a little luck and a little faith, but it's a plan. The first part is landing Shin-Soo Choo as a free agent. I suppose that it's open to speculation about what it is going to take to get him, but I know that he is making around $7 million this year and Jody Mac speculated on WFAN that he would command a 5 year deal at $12 million per. So for the sake of discussion, let's throw out 5 years-$60 million, but you front load it it order to hedge against him declining as he approaches his mid 30s. Pay half the value of the entire thing in the first two years ($15 million for '14 and '15, when he will be 31 and 32), drop it down to $13 million in the middle year, then pay him only $8.5 million the last two years when he will be 34-35.

I think Young is a keeper, and I am willing to see if Lagares and/or Nieuwenhuis can develop at the plate (while batting them lower in the order so as to not rely on them that much) while covering ground in CF. That just leaves one spot left to fill.

Frayed Knot wrote: . . . successful ones that seem to come out of nowhere (Mujica in StL), or that were previously mid-30s journeymen (Grilli in Pitt), or that were suspended druggies who spent four year out of the game working as a bartender (Wilhelmsen in Seattle) Not that I am advocating trading Parnell, but this little factoid could be used as a justification to sell high on him.

. . .who are the closer candidates (short term and long term)?

I'm seriously asking this. . .what are the consequences if the Mets make an organizational decision not to endanger their players and just flat out refuse to take the field this week in Colorado (where the HIGH tempatures are going to be in the 20's and possibly as low as NINE DEGREES)? Do they just take four consecutive 9-0 defeats with no more questions asked, or would it get too many knickers in a fit to be that easy? What role does the player's union have in this? Does anyone have insight on this (I mean actual knowledge of what options exist outside of King Selig decreeing what happens)?

I think that this is a fair and appropriate thing to track over the season. . .both are under One Year-$4 million contracts. Did Sandy make the right call? It's obviously early, but so far the answer is "no". http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28507/mike-pelfrey

It's Murphy and Parnell this year, then Davis/Gee/Tejada/Turner/Baxter after 2013 going into 2014, correct? Is there any way to roughly surmise what the raises are going to be beforehand?

It looks like they are going to go with this array of Duda/Nieuwenhuis/Cowgill/Baxter/Brown, platoon heavily, and see how it shakes out while maintaning cost control/"payroll flexibility" going into 2014. Oddly, I'm actually OK with this. Maybe, just maybe, out of this something useful can rise to the top (if even only for platoon or depth purposes going forward). I am still of the opinion that, if Santana pitches well in the first half, he will be able to net us one good OF prospect so long as we pay the remainder of the 2013 salary AND the $5 million buyout. So, IMO, we should be able to get 1/3 of next year's OF out of Johan. Then, now that we are establishing/assuming that there is money to spend next winter, here is a list of the free agents that ought to be available. . . http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/2014-mlb-free-agents.html Out of this, I have picked out some names that I like (varying levels of age, production, and financial committment): Mike Morse David Murphy Martin Prado Ellsbury Granderson Choo Nelson Cruz Corey Hart Hunter Pence Not a bad list to choose from. Depending on other factors, hopefully we can look at locking up one or two of these options. If we do not get one superstar, then maybe we get two productive pieces. Plus, it is possible in my mind that Flores can fit into second base and be a source of offense from a somewhat non-traditional spot. If that happens, then Murphy becomes a tradable asset. If Flores cannot handle second but still hits, then he a a huge chip for a trade as a third base prospect that we would not need. I think that at this point can assume that we willl also be getting plus offense long-term from another somewhat non-traditional area, that being catcher. All of this will take time (probably most of the season, or at least until the All-Star Break) to play out, so with that said, I am actually OK with the approach that they are taking right now with the outfield. Never would have thunk it when the winter started.

Edgy MD wrote: I don't think what the team has there right now is all that bad. Although I certainly think Fores (or Havens) could take the spot from Murphy in the near future, I think Murphy could make a fight of it yet. I agree with you on Murphy. So I think that the way you can look at it is that one can be your intermediate to long term solution at second base, while the other is a chip that you can most certainly use for something of value.

Any thoughts or insights as to the chances of him sticking there for us long-term? I know that they started to put him there a little bit at AA (while also having him play third as well). If we can get plus offense/power at second base, that would lessen the need to go out and find (and pay) a super-stud for the outfield (although we will obviously be needing better than what we have now). I guess where they play him mostly will dictate how they view him (either as a keeper or as trade-bait for the outfield). Either way, he is an asset so long as he rakes.

If this is a Turner vs. Brown vs. Bixler competition for the right-handed half of a RF platoon (assuming Cowgill is sharing CF with Nieuwenhuis) then put me in the Brown camp right now! At the very least, he is the only one who has shown any pop in his bat (albiet in AAA). Plusm he is the only one who is not a converted middle infielder.

Low-risk/high reward if we sign him up cheap? We lock him up now and then audition him in the second half to see if he is back to his former self after two microfracture surgeries on two knees?

Yes, I know that it's way early to be thinking about this, but I seem to like thinking early about things like this. IF Santana is healthy and pitching like Santana AND the Mets are hopelessy terrible and out of it by the All-Star Break, would Sandy try to restock the farm yet again? Here is a quick, hasty, list of teams that will probably be contending, along with a few of their better prospects that I put together, focusing on OF and a little bit of lefthanded pitching. Maybe some of you know more about them than me? TIGERS -Nick Castellanos CARDINALS -Oscar Tavares REDS -Billy Hamilton, Tony Cigrani RANGERS -Mike Olt, Leonys Martin (basically the Dickey package that I wanted from them , only now with Johan) ROYALS -Bubba Starling RED SOX -Jackie Bradley, Bryce Brentz BLUE JAYS (again) -Anthony Gose, Daniel Norris

Edgy MD wrote: Unless they don't get the books balanced by next year, and then the austerity rolls over into another season. At which point, assuming it actually happens, more people may come to realize that the only real difference that mattered between Wilpon and McCourt was the personal endearment of Selig.

Does anyone else have an inkling that they are going to try to get by 2013 with trying out these AAAA types along with a veteran retread or two in the OF before going big next winter after the money supposedly frees up. By "big" I am talking about Ellsbury as a FA and/or trading for Stanton (who, at that time, will be closer or at his arbitration years).

Here we go. . . http://www.amazinavenue.com/2012/12/14/3537138/2013-new-york-mets-outfield-trade-los-angeles-angels-anaheim-rumors-bourjos-trumbo-hamilton Bourjos for some lower-level minor leaguer (like Mazzoni or Tapia) and then sign Ross for something like 2 years/$14-15 million. It's either that or somehow convince Major League Baseball to waive the requirement that teams need to field three outfielders at any time during the course of a game.

Who are they? Where are they? How do we get them?

Last week I posted that thing about agressively upgrading the outfield. In the ensuing thread, a few folks suggested that there is still an issue with a limited budget. I would hope that they are wrong (and I still contend that, based on the scenario that we were presented by Selig, it should not be the case anymore), but if they are correct, my feeling is then they should go completely the other way and flip Wright and Dickey for young position players, notably oufielders, that can hopefully be the basis for the next team (with a nucleus that could potentially revolve around Flores/Wheeler/Harvey/Niece/Davis). You might say that they have already stated that they are going to prioritize locking up Wright and Dickey long-term. I might respond that Wright and Dickey have something to say about that and that Luca Brasi is not anywhere around pointing a gun to their heads forcing them to sign a thing until they are convinced that it is the right move for them (to my knowlege, neither of them breed horses either). If you move Wright, then Flores is waiting in the wings and the likes of Lutz/Turner/Valdespin/Murphy can hold the fort down at the hot corner until then. If you move Dickey, then the 2013 rotation shakes out this way. . . Santana Harvey Niece Mejia Gee/Pelfrey/McHugh/Wheeler Would this suck? Yes, it would. But I think that it would be smarter than putting mediocre crap around Wright and Dickey (assuming they actually do re-up). I would prefer going the other way, but would support this as well. Trying to play it down the middle is the worst choice of the three, IMO.

Unless you are that afraid that Bourn is going to transfigure into Vince Coleman, are you?

Frayed Knot wrote: Mex17 wrote: So say that Bourn commands somewhere in the $9-10 million range as a FA after making I think around $7 million this year. Bourn is a 29 y/o speedster and GG-caliber CFer who should be top 5 in MVP voting this winter coming up on probably his one and only chance at being a FA ... and you think he's signing for under $10mil?!?!? Fine. If he commands more, ante up. I think that it makes baseball sense this time. If they were not 7 games over .500 at one point this year and/or they actually had some outfield talent coming up (other than Kirk, who might be OK but was clearly exposed one time around the circuit, got sent down again, and promptly got injured and was not able to finish a second consecutive season) and/or if their two mid-career stars were not coming up against "stay or walk" time I would say stick with the austerity plan and wait it out until you can home grow a team. But, to me, every baseball indicator tells me that this winter is the time to pull some triggers. The only thing that might cause it not to happen is this "Wilpon is broke" stuff. I don't want to totally harp on a single point, but that should not be a factor. Either the guy can afford a baseball team in New York or he can't, it needs to be that simple.

I think that they are going to want to see some things happen before they put their names on another contract. That's what I would do.

Incremental increases = Wright and Dickey walk after 2013. Not good enough.

So say that Bourn commands somewhere in the $9-10 million range as a FA after making I think around $7 million this year. Justin Upton makes $10 next year. . .that would be $20 million for two thirds of the outfield. In 2014 you get Bay off the books, so that more than makes up for Upton's uptick in salary. You still need to work out a trade for Upton, but for the moment that is slightly outside the scope of this conversation. Granted you still have to lock up Wright and Dickey and get the bullpen fixed (K-Rod again at a reasonable rate??), but I think all of that is reasonable provided that we were told the truth about the Wilpons being back in the game once the Madoff stuff got cleared up and they got their minority investors. What I am talking about is nowhere near what the Dodgers are doing and I feel should be totally within expectations for a New York team to be able to afford. If it cannot happen, then; a) we were lied to by Wilpon and Selig, they should trade Wright and Dickey this winter, and c) Wilpon should do the honorable thing and sell off to someone who can pay the damn bills!