Let's assume that last year was a fluke and that Posada goes back to career norms. That would give us: BA: .277 OBP: .381 SLG: .479 OPS: .860 HR (average since 2000): 24 RBI (average since 2000): 89 Could you live with that for three years, $45 million? I think so. But only at the catcher position. Those numbers aren't worth that at first base. Now, if you consider that you are getting him at age 36-39, it is reasonable to assume his production might not even be that high...especially in years 2 and 3. And considering Pudge Rodriguez and his .714 OPS (250 points lower than Posada's) had his option picked up at $14 million, how likely is a deal for 3 years, $45 million? If he's asking for 4 years, I think you have to pass. Catchers' productivity generally doesn't fade away. You wake up one day and it's gone.