smg58
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Everything posted by smg58
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And the bargains continue. Jason Giambi returns to Oakland for a year and an option, and Jerry Hairston stays in Cincinnatti for a year and $2M. I don't get the Mets' lack of interest in Hairston at that price.
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The Cubs apparently are giving 3 years and $30M to Milton Bradley. They expect him to play right field full time, even though he has had trouble staying in the lineup when he's been the DH. Given Burrell's deal and the fact that Abreu would have made much more sense for them, I really don't get this one.
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Like most of the available outfielders, I think Burrell's glove would have hurt as much as his bat would have helped. But for the Rays, he's an excellent fit (as a DH) at an excellent price.
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I think the first four choices all apply.
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Sheets has pitched more innings over the past two seasons than John Maine has. And his upside is still very high. You might have to be more protective of him than you would be with the average pitcher, but if I can get him for two years and something close to $20M I'm for it. As for getting Sheets AND another expensive starter, tell me how much money we have left to spend and I'll tell you if that's feasible.
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The sad, sad truth, and the dirty Lowe-down
smg58 replied to Frayed Knot's topic in New York Mets Talk
I don't see the appeal of Wolf. He's consistently below average, and two good months in Houston doesn't change that. I could understand a cheap one-year deal to keep the fifth starter's seat warm for Niese, but he doesn't deserve more than that. There are some potential bargains out there. Nobody's even talking about Paul Byrd or Braden Looper, both of whom are at least as good as Wolf. I understand that Looper might not get welcomed so warmly, but he had a slightly better year than Ollie and might come much cheaper. Another guy worth a look is Chuck James, who got non-tendered by the Braves. He sucked last year, but he was at least average before that, he's only 27, he could also serve as another lefty in the pen, and he might be obtainable for next to nothing. -
Fuentes got two years at $17.5M, plus a club option. Rotoworld says "Fuentes almost certainly took less money to play close to home," but I'm not sure who was competing with the Angels.
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The Cubs sign Aaron Miles for two years, then trade DeRosa to the Indians for three low level (not even top 20) prospects. At least it's not the Phillies, but that's one mild upgrade over Castillo and one significant upgrade who found takers at prices we could have afforded.
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How does Moose get more win shares than Sabathia, and Giambi get more win shares than Teixeira? They do have plenty of question marks in the rotation. They'll be lucky to get 30+ starts from both Wang and Burnett, and Joba's no safe bet either. Hughes and Kennedy were both rushed through the system, and at least one of them will do fine this year, so they'll be better at the last spot than people realize. But the 2 through 4 spots could really come back to get them. The offense will be what it usually is. Jeter and Cano will probably be a little better, Damon probably a little worse. Posada and Swisher are the question marks, along with Matsui because of his health. On paper, they're the team to beat IF everybody stays on the field, but that's a really huge if.
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The latest report says that the subject of a Jones deal came up at the Winter Meetings but hasn't come up since. Before the Dodgers signed Blake and the Mets dealt Schoeneweis, there might have been a fit. Jones' stock has plummeted so far down that him for Castillo straight up wouldn't have been worth it, but if they also took Schoeneweis and gave us Hong Chih Kuo, we'd be paying $5M up front (counting Jones' $15M salary, but not the additional $6M in signing bonuses the Dodgers still owe him) to get a significant bullpen upgrade and free ourselves from Castillo. I'd have been willing to do that, even if Jones' knee continues to render him useless. As it stands, IF his play in winter ball suggests that his knee is OK, Jones could be a righthanded Endy with some pop, worth maybe two or three million. His defensive metrics remained well above average until this past year.
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I went with Lowe because he's the best pitcher of the three, but I still wouldn't go four years with him.
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I think we should all move to the Bronx. The economy appears to be really, really good over there.
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Guys who can consistently give you 200+ IP with 15 wins and a sub-4 ERA are worth plenty more than 8 million. I wouldn't go four years with Lowe, on account of his age, but I'd much rather have him than Ollie.
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If the Japan thing doesn't work out, Lambin would be worth offering a minor-league deal and inviting to camp. His strikeout rate might be his undoing, but as a switch hitter with some pop who can play multiple positions, he could be a useful 25th man for somebody. Plus, he seems like an easy guy to root for.
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A lot of effort has gone into quantifying defensive value over the last few years. Teams may be treating the newer defensive metrics like a kid treats a new toy, and some teams might even be overreacting (i.e., Ty Wigginton's glove at third is well below average, but does that really justify non-tendering a guy who hit 26 home runs?). But when you're comparing even corner outfielders, the difference in defensive value between the good extreme (where Ryan Church is) and the bad extreme (where most of the big names on the market and trading block are) can't be ignored. I'd be looking for value in a righthanded outfielder. I was shocked that Rivera got three years, though, so I'm not hopeful that somebody like Wigginton or Baldelli could be had for two. But I see no point in making a big commitment to a bigger name guy who may or may not be better than what the Mets already have.
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If the Mets get 100 save opportunities, a 70/30 split will work out to everybody's satisfaction. Green was terrific for the first four months last year, but 58 innings in four months was more than he could handle and he imploded in August and September. If his arm has recovered and they pace him for 65 or so innings, he could have a really good year.
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For starters, the Red Sox are currently talking as though they've been seriously outbid. 8 years and $200M for Teixeira is looking likely. In addition, with a few third baseman on the market who won't make $24M over the next two years, will not cost players, and are not injury risks, don't assume that the Sox can sell Lowell for more than pennies on the dollar. The Mets would be in a similar position with Delgado; if teams looking for a DH/1B can get a year of Giambi for less money and no players, or three years of Dunn for less money per year and no players, pennies on the dollar is the most you can hope for. And that has to be factored into the final bill for Teixeira. And the Red Sox don't need more pitching as badly as the Mets, either. We need to add another lefty reliever, and right now we have two spots in the rotation to fill with only one rookie who's likely a year away in any position to fill one of them.
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Second base. It's by far the easiest position to upgrade. Castillo killed us with the glove and the bat last year. Ranking the other spots: Catcher. We're overpaying for what we're getting, but the defense is fine and there are not very many obvious upgrades out there. First base. Delgado concerns me a little bit. Then again, with Citifield being nine feet shorter down the rightfield line, the good Delgado could hit 40 if he shows up this year. Left field. Murphy has earned the right to play. His defense in left was actually plus, according to the Fielding Bible. Having a high OBP in the second spot in the lineup is a good thing. Right field. Church was very good when healthy, and he plays outstanding defense. A platoon partner might be in order, but I don't see anybody available who would still be an upgrade against righthanded pitching when defense is factored in.
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A lot of absolute beginners on this list. I don't know if that's good or bad.
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Miles is another player who would be an upgrade over Castillo. He has similar hitting numbers to Castillo from a few years ago. He's also at least average with the glove, which Castillo can no longer say. He'd be worth bringing in for something like two years and $5M, although I might go higher than that if there are no other viable 2B options. He's not Orlando Hudson, but he could present significant value. I'd be willing to go 2 years and $6M for Wigginton's services, even if I could only guarantee him starts against lefties (in the outfield). Somebody like him or Juan Rivera would boost our bench, enable us to platoon Ryan Church, and provide cover if something goes wrong with Murphy, Church, or Delgado. I'm not sure that would be enough, but nobody jumped at the chance to trade for him.
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Joe Beimel and Will Ohman are still on the market, either of whom would be a decent LOOGY option. Alan Embree and Brian Shouse are also available, but I'm not sure getting older is the right course of action.
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The non-tenders are headed rather shockingly by ex-Met Ty Wigginton, after a very strong year with the bat. He's not that good defensively in the infield, but I have to think it had more to do with money. I also can't imagine that none of the teams in the market for a third baseman (the Twins, the Indians, the Giants) wouldn't have given him a look. I've always thought Ty could be the 10th man on a good team, and the Mets have room for him (as primarily an outfielder), but somebody might still pay him a starter's salary. Other noteworthy non-tenders include Chris Capuano (still recovering from TJS but might be worth a long-term look) and Takaishi Saito (his worth depends entirely on the status of his elbow). The only Met I saw was Argenis Reyes. If that's it, that would mean that Stokes (a good move) and Robinson Cancel (a bit surprising, unless they know they can move one of the other catchers) are staying on the 40.
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I don't know what lefties are available right now. Other than Feliciano, I don't know if the Mets have any lefties even at the AAA level right now. No non-tenders popped up that I saw.
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Evans belongs at Buffalo playing first base. With Carp gone and Delgado in his walk year, he should be getting full-time AB's at his best position. The Mets need more lefthanded pitching. Burrell might not be better than Ibanez when you factor in ballparks. But both might hurt (might have hurt, in Ibanez' case) the Mets defensively more than they'd help offensively. The Mets absolutely need another righthanded bat in the outfield, but not at a cost that's disproportionate to the benefit.
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Tatis and Murphy should cover us at third, even if we do get Cora. Marlon is already paid for, so there's no reason (barring a trade) not to give him a shot of making the team. He has not earned the right to get a spot over somebody who outperforms him in spring, though. Castillo had a worse plus/minus (from the Fielding Bible) than Durham last year, over fewer innings. Not that Durham was any good with the glove, but he won't hurt us relative to Castillo and would be an obvious offensive upgrade. I doubt Hairston can duplicate last year's numbers, but he's an asset even if he comes within shouting distance. And he's more or less average with the glove wherever you put him. I'd like to see Argenis spend a year at AAA, hone his hitting skills and get some work at shortstop. He didn't hit a lick in the majors last year, but he has time to improve.
