Here's some long distance optimism from my pal, the German Mets fan. Its a nice recap that seems to mirror some of what has already been said. 1) Fact is, the 2009/2010 free agent market was very thin. There was no true elite talent available and only two legit impact bats in Holliday and Bay. The Mets got one of the two and thus get a RH slugger they�ve lacked for quite some time. As for the pitching market, sure, the Mets could have used a more dependable SP for their rotation vs. what they have now. However, was any of the available options dependable and worth a larger investment ? - Lackey - as good as he is - has missed time in both 08 and 09 with shoulder issues. Nothing major but definitely a concern for a 31-year-old who is supposed to be a true workhorse and who gets a 10+ % share of the overall payroll for several years - Pineiro - a very good 2009 season under the tutalage of Dave Duncan that followed a career that makes Ollie Perez look consistent. Hardly worth a larger investment. - R.Wolf - coming off a fine 2009 season but already in his mid 30s and with a track record full of serious injuries before being healthy in 2009 and for most of 2008. These three could have helped for sure and made for a nice 2010 spring outlook - but at what price and without any guarantees. All other available SP were either consistently mediocre (Garland, Marquis) or major risks like Sheets, Harden or Bedard. So, this leaves the Mets with essentially the same rotation they had in 2008 and in 2009. In 2008, it fell one game short of reaching the postseason. Had the Mets had a closer in 2008, it would have been enough. In 2009, injuries struck while Pelfrey regressed and the team collapsed entirely. Santana is one of the greatest pitchers in Baseball. If Pelfrey - Maine - Perez manage to combine for 85+ starts, 500+ IP and an overall ERA of 4.00, the Mets will be alright. If you look up their 2008 production, that�s essentially what they did back then. The Mets had no legit 5th starter in 2008 or 2009 either. At least this year, there�s a good shot to see a younger, more promising pitcher like Jon Niese or Fernando Nieve get a long look here. Can�t do much worse than what was used in previous years. 2) The Mets resisted trading away any prospects. While there�s a lot of debate among prospect raters whether the Mets have a terrible farm (Rubin and some BA guys) or a pretty solid and underrated farm (K.Law, Sickels, Goldstein of BP as well), it was vital keeping this group of prospects intact. If the Mets want to become a successful franchise again, they need a steady pipeline of young talent at all levels of the system. Last year, one of the big problems besides the rash of injuries was the lack of talent at AAA to help out when injuries struck. And not only that, for fans it�s easier accepting a lost season when you�re getting a glimpse of the future. However, except for a few F.Martinez games, the replacements essentially were the Angel Berroas and Corey Sullivans of the world. Mediocre Quadruple A players who have seen the best side of their career. By keeping all the prospects, the AAA and AA rosters - for the first time in years - will feature several promising young talents. Even if there�s a lot of debate regarding the future value of Ike Davis, Jenry Mejia, Fernando Martinez, Reese Havens, Brad Holt, Josh Thole, Kirk Nieuwenhuis or Ruben Tejeda - fact is they�re all young and will all just be a phone call away from the majors if needed - without being totally rushed. 3) Yes, the Mets look well below average at C and 2b right now offensively and possibly defensively as well. 1b and RF are big question marks too - though the young age of Franceour and Murphy somewhat help. CF remains a concern as well as long Beltran is out and Pagan / Matthews have to fill in. That said, assuming health from Reyes, a bounceback from Wright. Bay producing on a normal level, the lineup won�t be all that terrible. The Braves also have major lineup question marks at multiple spots: - brittle Troy Glaus at 1b - unproven Martin Prado at 2b - declining Chipper Jones (age 38) at 3b - overrated Melky Cabrera in LF - Matt Diaz in RF And I�d certainly rather have Reyes - Wright - Bay than McCann - Escobar - McLouth among the more predictable lineup anchors. Sure, the Braves have a better rotation on paper - though it�s an all RH staff, Lowe looked poor in 2009, Hudson is 35 and missed most of 2008 / 2009, Kawakami is a mediocre filler. Hanson & Jurrjens look like legit young aces though and thus give the Braves the edge for now. However, this is far from a landslide. Is it really a foregone conclusion that Hudson outpitches Maine ? Santana & Pelfrey perform worse overall than Hanson & Jurrjens ? Perez does worse than Lowe ? Kawakami outpitches Niese / Nieve ? Let�s play the season to find out. Overall, I see the Mets as an 85-win team on paper right now. Not in the ballpark of the Phillies but on par with the Braves, Marlins and fellow 2nd place / Wild Card contenders in the NL. With a few good breaks the Mets win 90 games and reach the playoffs while developing a stronger farm nucleus. With a few bad breaks the Mets win 80 games and clean house at some point in 2010 and a new GM inherits a roster without too many crippling long term contracts. Reply | Quote Later