I may be wrong, but I think it's higher than zero. It doesn't seem all that far-fetched for the Mets to determine that they don't want to pay him $6 million next year, if they feel that money can be better spent elsewhere. I suspect it's more likely that they would seek to trade him, or release him if it turns out that he gets a larger arbitration award than they can tolerate. It makes less sense to cut him loose until you know what he'll be making. It's his salary, not his ability, that would make Pelfrey expendable.