As of today, Baseball Prospectus has the Mets at 33% to win the division and 12.8% to win one of the two wild card slots. Phillies are 36.1% for the division, 12.7% for the wild card. Nationals are 24.2% and 12.2%. As for winning the World Series, Phillies are 4.1%, Nationals 4.0%, and Mets 3.0%. So the Mets are more likely to make the playoffs than the Nationals are, but less likely to win the World Series. The team with the best World Series chances are the Astros, at 14.5%, followed by the Indians at 14.3%. Other teams over 10% are the Diamondbacks at 10.8 and the Yankees at 10.2.