Benjamin Grimm

W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 89 69 .532 91.6 70.4 87.42335 11.08457 98.50792 -1.11729 18.29007 Mets 87 70 .544 89.8 72.2 12.57665 59.56893 72.14558 6.81905 7.89285 Brewers 86 71 .532 88.8 73.2 .00000 29.29593 29.29593 -4.74244 -19.83427A good day for the Mets yesterday, but it could have been a great day had the Pirates held on and defeated the Brewers. Oh well. Any day that reduces the magic number and gets the Mets closer to the end of the season is very helpful. Yesterday's action gained the Mets 6.8 playoff points. Just over one point came from the Phillies, and 4.7 from the Brewers. The rest? It seems to have come in tiny portions from Florida, Houston, and St. Louis. The Marlins and Cards are now officially eliminated and the Astros are hanging on by a thread. The Mets magic number to eliminate them from the Wild Card is 2. Phillies magic number over the Mets for the NL East is still 4. And it's 3 over the Brewers. Their overall playoff odds are a very healthy 98.50792%. But things can change quickly in the final few games, so you never know. By beating the Cubs yesterday, the Mets reduce their Wild Card magic number to 5. Their NHOP to finish with a better record than the Phillies is 77.8% (7 out of 9). To tie the Phillies, which could be enough to get them a division title, it's 66.7% (6 of 9). The NHOP for the Mets relating to the Brewers is 50% (5 out of 10 necessary happy outcomes.) The Brewers need an NHOP of 60% to force a tie and 70% to win the Wild Card outright. That 70% number makes it seem like the odds are good that the Mets will play beyond Sunday, even if it's just the one-game tie-breaker. Let's look at that magic number of 5, with 5 games remaining for each team. If the Mets go 3-2, the Brewers need to sweep their last five games to finish with a better record, and have to go 4-1 to force a tie. Starts by Perez, Pelfrey, and Santana give the Mets 3 games that they should have a good chance of winning. (The other two games, with starts by Pedro and TBD have somewhat gloomier prognoses.) If the Mets go 2-3, the Brewers still need 3-2 to force a tie, and 4-1 to surpass the Mets. Thursday, Pedro's start, is a key game. If they can find a way to win that one, if they can turn a should-lose into a win, then that will be a huge step towards the post-season. Remaining schedule: The Mets, Phillies, and Brewers all have nothing but home games the rest of the way. The Phillies finish the schedule against bad teams, who can, as we've seen, be dangerous. They have one game against the Braves and three against the tenacious Nationals. The Mets only play good teams, the NL Central champion Cubs for two games, and the recently eliminated Marlins for three. The Brewers, unfortunately, still have two games against the last-place Pirates, but then they have to face the Cubs for three. Right now I'd say that the Brewers have a slightly softer schedule, but if the Mets can maintain (or expand) their lead over the next two days, the schedule will then swing to the Mets' favor.

Wow, he even gets the girl when his team gets eliminated. Some guys have all the luck.

I really don't see why Citi Field has to be a factor in this at all. I remember similar talk about Willie Randolph; how the Mets might not fire him because they wouldn't want to open Citi Field with a new manager. Makes no sense to me.

Santana 5 Reyes 3 Wright 2

Gary Cohen pointed out the other day that the Mets have a similar quirk with their walks-in-a-season record. Only once has a Mets player had 100 walks, and he went way over. It wsa John Olerud with 125 in 1999. The next highest total is 97, by Keith Hernandez in 1984 and Darryl Straweberry three years later.

Game 1 would be what, Wednesday? I think I'd rather let him start on seven days rest. Let's just hope we have the luxury of having to make that kind of decision.

At the moment: Mets 3, Cubs 2. Braves 3, Phillies 2. Pirates 3, Brewers 2.

Actually, now they're up 3-2.

bmfc1 wrote: Pirates take the lead. Nice!

Me too. He's shown that he can schmooze a free agent or two but he hasn't made many especially clever moves. I'd replace him with that Wayne Kretzsky guy. (I know I have his name wrong. Once he becomes the GM I promise to remember his name.)

Yes, welcome back. And I assume, based on what we've recently learned, that Fred Merkle probably wasn't suffering from sinus congestion that day.

I think they should get one of the stadium ushers to dress as the ghost of Nino Espinosa.

Hey, congratulations and welcome back! Now do something to make the Mets start winning again!

Maybe they think he's a Lincoln Mercury dealer.

You're making it all sound so... so... cheesy!

We'll have to somehow convince him that it's Christmas.

W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 89 68 .532 92.2 69.8 95.52425 4.10096 99.62521 1.30070 35.21741 Mets 86 70 .542 89.3 72.7 4.47575 60.85076 65.32652 -9.49126 -8.02903 Brewers 85 71 .532 88.5 73.5 .00000 34.03837 34.03837 7.99658 -19.48826Mets hopes continue to dim and these updates seem more and more masochistic. Another 9� points drop off the playoff odds, with the Brewers taking about 8 of them (a very productive day for an idle team) and the Phillies getting the rest. The division title is looking like quite a longshot, and the Phillies appear to be playoff bound. (Making their eventual collapse all the sweeter? How great would that be?) The Mets have a tragic number of 4 for the NL East crown and their Wild Card magic number holds steady at 6. NHOP for the division is 81.8% (9 out of 11) to win the division outright, or 72.7% (8 of 11) to end in a tie with the Phillies which could (depending on Milwaukee's final record) give the Mets the division title. The Wild Card NHOP is rising steadily. It's now at 54.5%. (6 of 11) For the Brewers, though, it's 72.7% (8 of 11). It's that in-between value, the 7 of 11, that would lead to a one-game playoff at Shea on Monday. While we can (and should) still hope for the Phillies to lose whenever possible, we've reached the point where a Brewers loss is more helpful to the Mets than a Phillies loss is. If I had one magic "make a team lose" card, I'd give it to the Brewers one night this week.

Wait... what? Did the Yankees really have the soda vending guy dressed up as the ghost of Lou Gehrig? And if so, is Steve actually saying that anything else can possibly be remotely as cheesy? (I have to confess: I know nothing about how the Yankees celebrated the closing of their ballpark. I didn't watch and didn't read any of the accounts.)

Tonight's game is a "should win" and at this point, any "should win" is a "must win." They can't fritter away these opportunities. If the Mets get this win and the Brewers find a way to lose, things will look a bit less dire tomorrow.

Voting for all three games played in Atlanta this past weekend will close on Wednesday morning. Schaefer POTG 9/19/08 - Mets 9, Braves 5Schaefer POTG 9/20/08 - Braves 4, Mets 2Schaefer POTG 9/21/08 - Braves 7, Mets 6

VOTING FOR THIS GAME IS NOW CLOSED Totals for September 18, 2008 (8 votes) New York Mets 7, Washington Nationals 2 NameTotal PointsPoints AwardedPlayer PerformanceJohan Santana34.804.35(W) 7.0 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 SO.Brian Schneider14.701.842-4, 2 R, 2 HR, 2 RBI.Ryan Church7.650.962-4, 2 RBI, SO.Carlos Beltran7.400.921-3, R, 3B, RBI, BB.Jos� Reyes7.200.902-5, R, 2B, RBI, 2 SO.Daniel Murphy5.200.652-4, BB, SO.Carlos Delgado2.200.281-4, 2 R, 2B, BB, SO.Pedro Feliciano0.850.110.2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 SO.

Wright 2 Reyes 1 Delgado 1 Murphy 1 Church 1 Beltran 0.5 Sanchez 0.5 Heilman 0.5

If their playoff ticket isn't punched by Sunday morning, I think you have to pitch Johan that day.

Yeah, he doesn't have to make that decision until Saturday, which is the next time Niese's turn comes around. (And he could also opt to replace Niese with Knight, or Figueroa, or... I don't know. Maybe they can activate Julio Valera.) One of the silver linings I've been seeing is that if there's a one-game do-or-die playoff game against the Brewers at Shea on Monday, that we'd have Oliver Perez going. Although it may be necessary to do the short-rest thing just to GET to Monday, I'd hope that the Mets could avoid it. Anyway, if the Mets win today and tomorrow and the Brewers lose today and tomorrow (could happen!) things will be looking a lot brighter on Thursday morning, (magic number of 2 with three to play) and there won't be any "short-rest" talk.

So if there's a one-game playoff on Monday vs. Milwaukee we get who... Pedro on short rest? Or Niese or Knight? Yeeee...