Prospect Watch - winter 2017/18

[Frayed Knot]

BA is first out of the blocks as they're starting with the NL East this year.

1 - Andres Giminez - SS
2 - David Peterson - LHP
3 - Justin Dunn - RHP
4 - Pete Alonso - 1B
5 - Thomas Szapucki - LHP
6 - Mark Vientos - SS/3B
7 - Marcos Molina - RHP
8 - Desmond Lindsay - OF
9 - Chris Flexen - RHP
10 - Luis Guillorne - 2B/SS


The individual write-ups are behind their pay wall so there's not a lot of details to be found there aside from the idea that the system is currently in a downward trend following the numerous 'graduations'
over the last few seasons and specifically of Rosario (1), Smith (2), and Nimmo (5) this past year.

STRENGTHS: The Mets used recent first-round picks on college lefthanders Anthony Kay and David Peterson, who pair with Thomas Szapucki to give the club southpaw depth they haven't seen in years.
The Mets' international program continues to funnel prospects through the system, particularly projectable Latin American shortstops like Andres Gimenez, Ronny Mauricio and Sebastian Espino.

WEAKNESSES: After graduating the likes of Michael Conforto, Steven Matz, Amed Rosario and Noah Syndergaard (and trading Michael Fulmer) in the past three years, the system lacks blue-chip prospects.
In particular, the Mets are short on power bats (aside from Pete Alonso) and top-of-the-rotation-type arms.

[Edgy MD]

There seems to be disagreement from site to site whether his name is GimInez or GimEnez, but there's certainly consensus that .265 / .346 / .349 // .695 for an 18-year-old jumping from the DSL all the way to the the South Atlantic League is really impressive.

[Guest 41Forever]

I know that Flexen was rushed and was needed to fill the rotation hole, but he had a fair number of starts in the majors. Seems like he had nearly as much time on the roster as Smith or Rosario. What makes him still on the prospect list, but not the other two? Is it because Flexen will likely head back to the minors and the other two are likely staying in New York?

[Benjamin Grimm]

It's a little discouraging that the organization is considered to be low on "blue chips", but that can change over the next 12 months as some of these guys play more and, hopefully, improve. The main negative for the short term is that the Mets aren't considered likely to be able to call up an impact player during the 2018 season. With luck, they won't need one, and maybe things will look brighter in the farm system going into 2019. I imagine that the quality of a farm system is pretty volatile, with players coming and going, progressing and regressing.

[Edgy MD]

Molina has a reasonable chance at making a 2018 impact. He may end up debuting as a reliever, and possibly sticking as one. That could bring him along a little faster.

[Frayed Knot]

41Forever wrote: I know that Flexen was rushed and was needed to fill the rotation hole, but he had a fair number of starts in the majors. Seems like he had nearly as much time on the roster as Smith or Rosario. What makes him still on the prospect list, but not the other two? Is it because Flexen will likely head back to the minors and the other two are likely staying in New York?

No, it's purely based on what has happened (ML time) not what might.
For pitchers the threshold might be 50 innings, Flexen had 48

[Guest 41Forever]

Frayed Knot wrote: 41Forever wrote: I know that Flexen was rushed and was needed to fill the rotation hole, but he had a fair number of starts in the majors. Seems like he had nearly as much time on the roster as Smith or Rosario. What makes him still on the prospect list, but not the other two? Is it because Flexen will likely head back to the minors and the other two are likely staying in New York? No, it's purely based on what has happened (ML time) not what might. For pitchers the threshold might be 50 innings, Flexen had 48

Ah. Thank you.

[Centerfield]

Is there a ranking of where they stand as against other clubs?

[Frayed Knot]

Various places will do that but only after they examine each team individually and the progression has just started - so tune back maybe in February.
I'd expect ours to be bottom third but that's just a guesstimate. Too many graduations and no one really stepping forward last year.
When you've got a guys at #s 2 & 3 like Peterson and Dunn whose value is still based entirely on draft slot rather than actual pro track record it tells you the list is much more based on
potential than anything.

[Edgy MD]

I hope that, beyond draft pedigree and track record, scouting filters into these rankings as well.

[Centerfield]

Frayed Knot wrote: Various places will do that but only after they examine each team individually and the progression has just started - so tune back maybe in February. I'd expect ours to be bottom third but that's just a guesstimate. Too many graduations and no one really stepping forward last year. When you've got a guys at #s 2 & 3 like Peterson and Dunn whose value is still based entirely on draft slot rather than actual pro track record it tells you the list is much more based on potential than anything.

I was thinking it's gotta be pretty close to the bottom. Fishing around that site, here's the top 100 from midseason last year:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-midseason-top-100-prospects-july-7/#MKYjy5WSuZwkGqKs.97

We only had Rosario (#4) and Smith (#50). With those two graduating, we'd have to be pretty low.

It's frustrating that the MFY's, with the big payroll, and all the trades they made, have 5 in that top 100. Maybe they traded a few of those guys to get Sonny Gray/Robertson?

Nationals are pretty light on that list too. I counted only 3.

[Frayed Knot]

Except that the system rankings are dealing with more than just the guys on the Top-50 or -100 lists, even though those are a big part of it obviously.
But sometimes you can at least partially make up for in depth what you lack in top shelf prospects.

[Edgy MD]

One of the deceptive things is the very idea of graduation. In reality, Smith and Rosario are very much still prospects and should be considered as such. It's sort of misleading that Amed Rosario as a 21-year-old shouldn't factor into prospect projections because he has 170 plate appearances in the major leagues, but J.P. Crawford as a 22-year-old does, because he has only 87 plate appearances.

[Frayed Knot]

True, the '25-and-Under' group that somebody (BP?) does is probably a better representation of a team's prospects than is simply counting just those who've yet to crack the rookie barriers.
BA goes instead each year with their lineup projection for four years out, but that's pure guesswork and always winds up wildly inaccurate.

[Centerfield]

I would guess that lists like this started before everyone was familiar with the minor leagues. So it serves the purpose of introducing you to guys you may not know.

Rosario and Smith, if you tuned into the games, are known entities.

Going back to the rankings, I hope I'm wrong but not only do we not have "blue chips", but the dropoff after the first few seems pretty steep.

But who knows right? Dan Murphy was never highly rated and is hitting like an MVP.

[Frayed Knot]

From the Mets page on MLB.com comes this Top-30 List
Not sure who specifically is responsible for this one and I tend to worry about it being more of an in-house production, but it does have the advantage of giving you some background/scouting report on each.

[MFS62]

During recent (minor league talent maven) Keith Law webcast he said that since Rosario and Smith will no longer be considered rookies, the Mets won't have a single prospect rated in the top 100.
When looking at the Baseball America lists of top 20 prospects in each minor league, you have to go all the way down to the SAL to find shortstop Andres Giminez on one of those lists.

Later

[Frayed Knot]

You have to go down to Single-A to find most of the guys on the BA top-10 list too.
Clearly this list in is based much more on potential than actual results.
The good news is most of them are either very young, very inexperienced, or both. So there's room for growth.

Andres Gimenez - (19 years old) Highest level = Low-A

David Peterson - (22) 2017 draft pick, pitched 3.2 innings as a pro

Justin Dunn - (22) 2016 draft pick, 31 games pitched between Brooklyn and PSL

Pete Alonso - (22) 2016 draft pick (2nd round), PSL + 45 ABs at AA

Thomas Szapucki - (21) 5th round pick 2015, pitched at Low-A

Mark Vientos - (17 !! - 18 in December) 2017 pick (2nd round), Rookie ball

Marcos Molina - (22) Split 2017 between A+ and AA

Desmond Lindsay - (20) 2015 2nd round draft, Low A

Chris Flexen - (22)

Luis Guillorne - (23) 10th round in 2013, AA Bingo

[Frayed Knot]

BP: The State of the System: Look, any system is gonna take a hit if they graduate three of their top four prospects in a season. It happens. It’s not even a bad outcome.
Just don’t ask about the rest of the system, because there were some, uh, bad outcomes.


BP's list is essentially the same as the others and any analysis they give beyond the basic (above) is behind their pay wall.

1) Andres Gimenez
2) David Peterson
3) Mark Vientos
4) Justin Dunn
5) Thomas Szapucki
6) Tomas Nido
7) Peter Alonso
8) Desmond Lindsay
9) Chris Flexen
10) Luis Guillorme

[Edgy MD]

Amazin' Avenue is rolling out their top prospects at a pace of two a day.

25. David Thompson: Second/third baseman piles up RBI and if everything goes perfect turns that bat into a big-league career. But that career is more likely to turn out to be of the Satin/Campbell variety than the Justin Turner type. But that was seemingly true about Turner, too, until it wasn't.

24. Drew Smith: Hard fastball, but a straight one. One of the 2017 class of right-handed relievers acquired in trades, this one for Lucas Duda.

23. Stephen Villines: Short-season reliever piled up strikeouts in Kingsport and Brooklyn. Mets went over slot on this guy and so far, so good.

22. Bryce Hutchinson: Exciting upside! Has a Syndergaardian build (on a teenager!) and like Noah, has a sideline as a slugger. But seven innings and a 4.70 ERA in the Gulf Coast League suggests that check isn't about clear any time soon.

20. Christian James: Almost everybody who the team takes seriously skips Kingsport, but every year, one or of the misfit toys there demands to be noticed, and for half of the year it was James, whose fastball-curve combo was unhittable. For half of the year, in a short-season league, isn't enough to bank on, but he turned some heads.

19. Jordan Humphreys: Starting pitcher killed it during his first half for Columbia. Absolutely murdered it. But he mostly (not entirely) missed in his second half in St. Lucie. Remains to be seen whether the higher level or competition caught up with him or his first year in full-season ball.

18. Marcos Molina: Top five prospect a few years back but has lost time and velocity to Tommy John surgery. Still youngish and got through his first post-op year without disgrace or reinjury.

17. Guerson Batista: Flame-throwing reliever nicely put it all together after coming over from Boston in the Addison Reed deal. Now has to do it over a full season.

[Frayed Knot]

BA tabs Andres Gimenez as their #94 prospect ... and there were those who said that the Mets wouldn't land anyone in the Top-100 this year.
How wrong they were!!

[MFS62]

Frayed Knot wrote: BA tabs Andres Gimenez as their #94 prospect ... and there were those who said that the Mets wouldn't land anyone in the Top-100 this year. How wrong they were!!

And I think I saw that David Peterson was in ranked 58th on Keith Law's list.
Later

[MFS62]

Here's an Amazin Avenue list of prospects not on their "top 25" list who you may want to follow:
https://www.amazinavenue.com/2018/1/22/16917404/top-25-mets-prospects-for-2018-other-players-of-note-2018

Later

[Frayed Knot]

The John Sickels Mid-season Prospect Update report for the Mets.

Keep in mind that this is a review of his winter list meaning that both the rankings and the grades given remain unchanged from his pre-season assessment so don't get all bent out of shape over the specific order.
What's new here are the comments on how each has progressed (or not) thru this half-season-plus (published on 8/2)

[smg58]

Things are looking up. MLB.com's mid-season list has four Mets in the top 100, with a fifth (Kilome) who was on the list in the offseason. That's at least average. A few guys have gotten hurt and/or taken steps backward, but every organization has them. Most teams don't have a Jeff McNeil going from completely overlooked prospect to major league starter in half a season. It's a lot more positive than people realize.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, I think it's been mostly a strong year in development, but I thought last year's rankings were artificially and deceptively low.

The real problem isn't in the prospect lists, but that a lot of the top guys who are recent veterans those lists — Rosario, Smith, Plawecki, Flexie — have seemingly stagnated upon their graduation.

[MFS62]

BA has jumped the Mets system from 27th to 19th in their updated rankings.
They must really like the past draft.

Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

The recent draft would only be one of several factors. I think a bigger factor would be how existing players at the lower end of the farm system progress.

[Centerfield]

I read that some of the guys who had bad years in 2017 have stepped up this year.

Still have high hopes for Thomas Szapucki. Hopefully he can fill out his potential once he recovers from TJ.

[MFS62]

An analysis of why the improvement.
https://www.sny.tv/mets/news/these-5-players-are-why-mets-have-an-improved-farm-system/289590932
More than the draft.
Later