Bullpen 2018

[Centerfield]

I think they have to make a run for Wade Davis. In fact, if they can only sign one big free agent, that would be my guy. An absolute difference maker out there. Move Familia to the 8th inning. Throw Blevins in there and that is a nice trio to end games.

Not sold at all on AJ Ramos. Walks too many people. Too many baserunners in general. Seems like one of those "closers" who get the name because they compile saves rather than being a lockdown guy. Was a lot more confident in Addison Reed versus Ramos.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Eh. Bullpen studs are a low priority for me, even with all that went down this year, and fake news clubs like the MFYs seemingly making a strategy of it.

I'll get Davis after he flames out for his FA signer. You have to figure one of the half-dozen palookas they gathered in at the deadline will turn out to be okay.

Now pitching for the Mets.... DREW! SMITH! /you've been, Thunderstruck!/

[Edgy MD]

So, the line seems to be that the team isn't shopping for bullpen help. That may be true or they may be playing it cool, but if you want another veteran lefty, Fernando Abad and Tony Watson are out there, among others.

Watson did some closing last year, and probably is in a position to ask for a longer deal.

[Centerfield]

Wade Davis. 2.35 ERA. 1.00 WHIP. 18 saves in 20 opportunities. While pitching in Colorado.

Tony Watson. 2.52 ERA. 1.20 WHIP. Signed for $9 million over 2 years, with escalators taking it up to $14 million.

Fernando Abad. Was reportedly signed by the Mets but ultimately was not. Can't find any stats on him. Might be dead.

Any of these guys would have helped. Even the presumed-deceased Fernando Abad.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Anthony Swarzak would help too.

[ashie62]

Swarzak and an anti-dote to gasoline

[smg58]

The Mets spent a fair amount shaping the bullpen. It wouldn't be fair to criticize the Swarzak signing, because that was simply bad luck and it may still work out in the long run. Picking up Blevins' option seemed like a perfectly good idea at the time. Trusting Familia has not been unreasonable -- he still has a 2.33 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, in spite of a .333 BABIP that makes his performance look worse than it actually is. Trusting Lugo and Gsellman to help out in the pen has prevented a bad situation from being far, far worse.

What was a mistake? Trading for Ramos. It was a terrible read of the market. The Mets could have paid a much better pitcher less salary this year and not given up Merandy Gonzalez (or anybody else). Also, the biggest offseason investment went to Jay Bruce, and you could have made an argument even in the offseason that Nimmo deserved a higher vote of confidence than any pitcher not named Syndergaard or DeGrom.

[Edgy MD]

Well trading for Ramos may yet be terrible, based on how Merandy Gonzalez (who I adopted) and Ricardo Cespedes do. But the idea at the time seemed to be to corner the market that had been depressing the value of Addison Reed, to getter better price on that trade.

The larger mistake may just be retaining him this season and giving him good spots to pitch in. But he may yet provide value.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

no accounting for his shakiness now but I thought the Ramos trade was a good move and would do it again

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

The Ramos trade was, is, and will continue to be confusing to me. (As will our apparent insistence on hard-throwing righty relievers as trade return.)

[Centerfield]

I don't see how the Ramos trade makes any sense.

In 2017, we were a team going nowhere looking to dump salary. Yet we took on a high salary for 2017, which is counter to everything we are doing at the time. As for 2018, it was well known that he would make $9-$10 million this year in arbitration. Which, if you look at his numbers, was not anywhere near worth it. Tons of walks. Mediocre ERA, mediocre WHIP. As I mentioned in the first post of this thread, the only "value" he had was the label "former closer".

In the offseason, there was plenty of talent available that was better, and either cheaper or in the same ballpark. Including Addison Reed. Look at a guy like Cishek. Two years, $20 million. He's not on the same planet as Ramos.

I hear the line about the shrewd Sandy Alderson taking Ramos off the market. There is absolutely no evidence that anyone was interested in Ramos. And if they were, anyone with a brain can see he was the inferior option to Addison Reed. Reed had an ERA of 2.57. Ramos was 3.63. Reed WHIP was 1.112. Ramos was 1.311. Ramos had 22 walks in 39.2 innings. Reed walked 6 batters in 49 innings. Anyone paying attention knew that these pitchers were not in the same class.

And even if that were true, our return for Reed was still crap. Callahan, Bautista. I guess they're young still and we don't know what they might become, but I have no way of knowing if they will be any better than what we gave up to get Ramos.

I have never seen a GM get a free pass like Alderson has gotten. Both from the media and the fans. I think it's because he is widely accepted as being very smart and is very well spoken. Anyone who talked like Minaya and made a move like this would be getting skewered.

[Edgy MD]

Whatever the ultimate outcome, I disagree that there was no evidence of interest in Ramos, or that the return for Reed has been crap.

[Guest 41Forever]

I think the Ramos deal made sense. The Mets weren't rebuilding, they were retooling after injuries destroyed a season, shedding contracts of guys who were likely to leave anyway with an intention of contending this year. The team traded its closer -- Reed -- and Familia was coming off an injury and no one knew how he'd be upon returning. Sandy saw a chance to grab a guy with closer experience to both finish out the season and serve as a setup man if Familia returned healthy and an insurance policy if he had not.

[smg58]

You can justify the Ramos deal if (a) the difference between what they got for Reed and what they would have gotten without the Ramos deal exceeds what they gave up, or ( Alderson as a GM could not have realistically foreseen how the free agent market would go. The focus needs to be on ( -- I could live with (a) if signing a reliever with Ramos' resumé was going to cost 3+ years at $10M+ per. Very few people did see how the market would go, but nobody is paying any of us to talk to other GMs and get a sense of what they are thinking, either. Alderson made a calculated decision that looked OK at the time, but it turns out would have been wrong even if Ramos were pitching decently.

[Edgy MD]

smg58 wrote: You can justify the Ramos deal if (a) the difference between what they got for Reed and what they would have gotten without the Ramos deal exceeds what they gave up,

That certainly would be hard to figure out from the outside, as we can only speculate on what the value of Reed was before the market was pinched.

As yet, there's not much data at the big league level.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Ramos most definitely would have been traded to somebody last summer. He's a 10+ k/9 guy career, 120-ish ERA+ reliever with "Closer Experience" (dubious as that distinction may be) and relatively pricey for a going-nowhere club -- but not necessarily the kind of guy whose brand as a closer was so established that he couldn't be redeployed as a setup man. You know who met that description 2 years before? Addison F. Reed, that's who. The advantage was Reed was younger, but Ramos' numbers compare favorably to that point. Both guys belonged in the majors with a chance to be better.

I'm not suggesting here that the Mets were counting on Ramos becoming suddenly as good as Reed, or that given Reed's improvement since arriving they were comparable by last year, but that you can set your watch by these guys getting traded every July, and in the case of Reed, it was a 6-run home run for the Mets. That's why I say they make that trade every time. They could have worked to retain Reed, the way they worked to retain Blevins, but as we see that doesn;t always work either. It's a crapshoot with these guys: Get as many as you can, turn over the earth, deploy them properly, keep them healthy and count on what their baseball card tells you to expect.

The Mets imagined themselves in a unique situation last season where they thought they were a going-somewhere team that was just missing a few parts and if they traded their Reed, they'd need a new Reed to take his place. They also needed somebody to close until the year ended. I suppose they could have faked it with Robles but would you really have preferred that?

Reed was the most tradeable thing the Mets had last summer; there was a lot of activity for relievers among contenders; he was a free agent to be and no guarantee we'd be able to afford him again. Taking Ramos off the market before swapping Reed was a good idea in that sense. It is way too early to declare the haul for him a bust.

Ramos has been especially stinky this year but to say you say it saw it coming and it wasn't necessary in the first place is somewhat akin to saying Mets should never have acquired Reed for the same reasons. You buy your ticket and take your chances.

I'm not saying Ramos would be something he's not; but the explanation for his shakiness at some level ought to be more a fuction of the shoulder problems revealed

[Centerfield]

I think we are overthinking the analysis here. Sandy traded for an expensive middling pitcher with bad peripherals. As is often the case when a guy has bad peripherals, they eventually catch up with him. Ramos has been terrible this year, and those struggles were certainly foreseeable.

The only value Ramos offered was the label "closer". See below.

41Forever wrote: Sandy saw a chance to grab a guy with closer experience

And I believe that the numbers are a better indicator of future performance than labels like "closer". Kevin Plawecki now has "cleanup hitter experience".

In fact, this thinking, I believe, hurt the Mets this winter.

"The bullpen doesn't need much upgrading, since Alderson already has two closers to finish games."

Very dangerous to think that way. And now we are paying the price for it.

[Edgy MD]

Centerfield wrote: There is absolutely no evidence that anyone was interested in Ramos.

Of course there is.

[Centerfield]

Ok. Fair. I still stand by the second part of my statement.

Centerfield wrote: I hear the line about the shrewd Sandy Alderson taking Ramos off the market. There is absolutely no evidence that anyone was interested in Ramos. And if they were, anyone with a brain can see he was the inferior option to Addison Reed. Reed had an ERA of 2.57. Ramos was 3.63. Reed WHIP was 1.112. Ramos was 1.311. Ramos had 22 walks in 39.2 innings. Reed walked 6 batters in 49 innings. Anyone paying attention knew that these pitchers were not in the same class.

[bmfc1]

Sandy thought:
Swarzak/Belvins for the 7th
Ramos for the 8th
Familia to close.
Done! He's solved the bullpen! Except that players get hurt/suspended or their performance deviates from their history. There is no depth, especially behind Blevins, but being short-sighted is the norm for Alderson.

[Guest 41Forever]

Centerfield wrote: I think we are overthinking the analysis here. Sandy traded for an expensive middling pitcher with bad peripherals. As is often the case when a guy has bad peripherals, they eventually catch up with him. Ramos has been terrible this year, and those struggles were certainly foreseeable. The only value Ramos offered was the label "closer". See below. 41Forever wrote: Sandy saw a chance to grab a guy with closer experience And I believe that the numbers are a better indicator of future performance than labels like "closer". Kevin Plawecki now has "cleanup hitter experience". .

I call l BS. Ramos had 32, 40 and 27 saves in the last three years -- for the Marlins! That's a lot more time in that role than Plawecki has ever, or will ever, have in the clean-up role.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramosaj01.shtml

[Benjamin Grimm]

The simple explanation for that deal is that the Mets were throwing in the towel for 2017 but saw an opportunity to start building their 2018 bullpen by trading for a reliever who was signed through this season. I expect that the plan was that Ramos would be a setup man for Familia. I didn't and don't object to the idea of acquiring Ramos, but my concern at the time, and now, is that they paid too steep a price in players for Ramos.

If this season continues to go south, the conversation in this thread (or another one like it) will be about what we can get in return for trading Familia.

[Edgy MD]

Well, I take a back seat to nobody in my Merandy Gonzalez affection, but he's scarcely provided more than Jamie Callahan as a big leaguer. Ricardo Céspedes was an unproductive player in the minors last year for the Marlins and hasn't appeared in a game this year, having been held back in extended spring training.

They may yet develop into gold, but I don't want to fall into the trap of thinking players the Mets have given up are great assets even it hasn't shown yet, while players the Mets have acquired aren't good at all if they haven't demonstrated it yet.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I haven't kept tabs on Merandy. I was solely going by my recollection of your affection for him. If the players that Miami received don't pan out then I'd see no reason to rue the trade.

[Centerfield]

41Forever wrote: I think we are overthinking the analysis here. Sandy traded for an expensive middling pitcher with bad peripherals. As is often the case when a guy has bad peripherals, they eventually catch up with him. Ramos has been terrible this year, and those struggles were certainly foreseeable. The only value Ramos offered was the label "closer". See below. 41Forever wrote: Sandy saw a chance to grab a guy with closer experience And I believe that the numbers are a better indicator of future performance than labels like "closer". Kevin Plawecki now has "cleanup hitter experience". . I call l BS. Ramos had 32, 40 and 27 saves in the last three years -- for the Marlins! That's a lot more time in that role than Plawecki has ever, or will ever, have in the clean-up role. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramosaj01.shtml

I call BS on your BS.

Saves, like wins, are not a good indicator of performance.

You looked at saves and thought Ramos would be good.

I looked at WHIP, and more specifically, his walks, and thought he would not be good.

He ended up not being good.

That means, I was right and you were wrong. You don't get to call BS, when you are wrong.

[Edgy MD]

The point he made was about Ramos' extended time in that role, which isn't equivelant at all to Kevin Plawecki's time as a cleanup hitter. He's had both a far longer tenure and far more success, saves or no saves.

[Guest 41Forever]

Edgy MD wrote: The point he made was about Ramos' extended time in that role, which isn't equivelant at all to Kevin Plawecki's time as a cleanup hitter. He's had both a far longer tenure and far more success, saves or no saves.

That is correct!

Wait, does that mean I get to call BS on CF calling BS on my call of BS? We’re gonna need a flow chart!

[Centerfield]

Edgy MD wrote: The point he made was about Ramos' extended time in that role, which isn't equivelant at all to Kevin Plawecki's time as a cleanup hitter. He's had both a far longer tenure and far more success, saves or no saves.

I understand his point. And that would have been a great argument if I said that Kevin Plawecki is just as qualified to be called a cleanup hitter as Ramos is to be called a closer. But that wasn't the point that I made.

The point I made was that labels like "closer" and "clean up hitter" are less indicative of performance than numbers. To illustrate the absurdity of relying on labels, I offered that Kevin Plawecki is a "clean up hitter".

It sounds great to say "Sandy Alderson has two closers at the back end of the bullpen".

It's much different when you say "Sandy Alderson has Jeurys Familia and a guy with a below average WHIP caused largely by an alarmingly high number of walks."

[Centerfield]

41Forever wrote: Edgy MD wrote: The point he made was about Ramos' extended time in that role, which isn't equivelant at all to Kevin Plawecki's time as a cleanup hitter. He's had both a far longer tenure and far more success, saves or no saves. That is correct! Wait, does that mean I get to call BS on CF calling BS on my call of BS? We’re gonna need a flow chart!

I think it's your turn.

[Vic Sage]

what CF said... ditto.

I moaned when we acquired Ramos, and not in a good way. that he wore the badge of closer did not fill me with confidence. That he continued to walk too many damn hitters to be an effective pitcher was a major concern, regardless of save totals. I would rather have spent the Ramos money elsewhere, like on a better starter than Vargas and/or a catcher.