Prospect Season - 2016/17

[Frayed Knot]

Baseball Prospectus is the first to chime in with their NYM list.
The write-ups are all hidden behind the pay wall so we get nothing beyond the raw list plus a brief description that calls the system "middle of the pack" but also notes that there's some talent beyond just the top ten shows an improvement overall.


A mixture of some familiar names and some less so.

SS Amed Rosario
RHP Robert Gsellman
LHP Thomas Szapucki -- 5th round pick in 2015 out of a Florida HS. Split 2016 (9 starts total) between Kingsport & Brooklyn
1B Dominic Smith
CF Desmond Lindsay -- 2nd round pick in 2015. 868 OPS in Brooklyn in 2016
RHP Justin Dunn -- the kid out of Freeport L.I. (by way of a prep school in Conn.) who was the 19th overall pick in 2016
SS Andres Gimenez -- a just turned 18 y/o Venezuelan who has yet to play in U.S. minor leagues
OF Brandon Nimmo
SS Gavin Cecchini
RF Wuilmer Becerra

[MFS62]

Glad to see Wuilmer is still on the top 10.
Those 5 tools he shows in practice (including the power tool that doesn't show up in games) must be spectacular.

Later

[Edgy MD]

It was a pretty terrible year for the system, particularly in the upper levels, following the late-summer spending spree that cost them 19 (I think) prospects. Only one affiliate qualified for the post-season and was quickly eliminated. But early returns on the draft and the recent free agent signings at least have the system trending back toward their prior lofty status, if still a ways from restored.

Gsellman and Lugo stepping forward, as well as Rosario's second big stride in two years, offered some redemption for a season largely defined by Molina's Tommy John surger and Wuilmer Becerra's power outage.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Szapucki, though... put up numbers (sub-1 WHIP, 14-plus K/9, 4-plus K/BB) that were so very szexy this year. He's gotten some MLB-wide talk, and may well be on some top-100 lists.

Edited November 15, 2016 by Guest

[Centerfield]

Not on that list is Anthony Kay, the supplemental pick the Mets got for letting Murphy walk. I have been hoping that someday he wins a Cy Young so we call be like man, it's a good thing Murphy left even though he killed is in 2016, since we got Anthony Kay and Murphy suddenly lost it and hit .214 from 2017 onwards.

Kay is a LHP from UConn, who had elbow concerns even before he was drafted. Just checked on him and found out he did, in fact, have Tommy John surgery. Out all of 2017.

Maybe he just felt like he needed to get it out of the way.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Not a top 10 ranking or anything, but rather a look around at the diamond at comers in the org. Nothing you probably didn;t know already...

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20161121&content_id=208239558&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb

[Edgy MD]

Amazin' Avenue is rolling out their prospect lists five guys at a time, down from 25

21-25

25. Cameron Planck, rhp: High schoolio drafted in June, DNP in 2016.

24. Ricardo Cespedes, cf: teenage lefty hitter/thrower who put up a lofty average (but little in the way of extra-base power or plate discipline) in Kingsport.

23. Harol Gonzalez, rhp: Darn good all-around numbers in Brooklyn, needs to show he can repeat it in a full-season league.

22. Jeff McNiel, if: Buffed up in the offseason, and it paid off quickly in Binghamton, as he ended up missing almost the entire year with a hernia.

21. Chris Flexen, rhp: Anchor of the St. Lucie staff. Added to the roster and might well see some time in Flushing in 2017.

16-20

20. Andrew Church, rhp: Former second-rounder who was written off by many but found his stride, starting in Columbia and climbing all the way to (briefly) Las Vegas.

19. Merandy Gonzalez, rhp: Coney Island's other Gonzalez. Good, classic fastball/curveball repertoire with inconsistent control.

18. Ricky Knapp, rhp: Goes together with Chris Flexen like Gsellman and Lugo. Pitched at all of the top three levels in 2016. Dad is a big league pitching coach.

17. Phil Evans, if: Won the Eastern League batting title. Is a league-wide favorite to get snatched in the Rule 5.

16. Peter Alonso, 1b: Beefcake righthanded 21-year-old slugger was, at times, most of Brooklyn's offense.

11-15

15. Marcos Molina, rhp: Spent most of the season recovering from TJ surgery, but pitched effectively in the AFL.

14. Gabriel Ynoa, rhp: Like Gsellman, gets it done without strikeouts. Was the most consistent pitcher in the Las Vegas rotation this year.

13. Andres Giminez, ss: 17 years old a thousand miles from the big leagues, but he had as impressive a debut as you can hope for in a DSL player.

12. Luis Carpio, ss: a more seasoned DSL shortstop (19!), he hit everything they threw at him and played his way into the states with 34 games in the GCL and 12 more with Brooklyn. It's going to be tough to find an arrangement for all their shortstops at the bottom of the system to get starting time.

11. Ali Sanchez, c: defensive specialist had his offense curtailed by injuries and whatever in Brooklyn in 2016, but has hit some in previous seasons. Surprisingly high ranking.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Gabe Llanes getting no love.

[Edgy MD]

It's like Miss America contestants. When you count down from the also rans, the drama builds. You start to think, "Am I so ugly as to not even get an honorable mention—am I a monster?—or AM I THE MOST BEAUTIFUL OF ALL?!!"

[Edgy MD]

#10. Wuilmer Becerra, rf: Becerra did everything you can hope for in St. Lucie in 2016, except hit for power, which he didn't do at all. This is a major step backwards. It's at least partially due to a torn labrum, so the optimist can say he proved he can still be useful while playing hurt, which is no small thing. The pessimist will say this isn't really much of a prospect.

#9: Tomás Nido, c: The previously unheralded Nido had a breakout season in St. Lucie, so obviously the trick is to do it again. But the fact that he cut his strikeout rate in half suggests that it wasn't all some BABiP illusion, so there's that. Also a strong defender.

Guess who #8 will be NOW!!!!

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Desmond Lindsay

[Edgy MD]

I don't know who AA is bringing at #8 yet, but Baseball America has a top ten out, and they sure are bullish on Justin Dunn.

1. Amed Rosario, ss
2. Dominic Smith, 1b
3. Justin Dunn, rhp
4. Desmond Lindsay, of
5. Brandon Nimmo, of
6. Gavin Cecchini, 2b/ss
7. Robert Gsellman, rhp
8. Thomas Szapucki, lhp
9. Gabriel Ynoa, rhp
10. Tomas Nido, c

The also have a lot of good things to say about Paul DePodesta and the ongoing returns from the 2011 draft.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/new-york-mets-top-10-prospects-2017/#eQjqxsjZhelrc1EZ.99

Did you know Amed Rosario's father was a judge? I didn't!

[Edgy MD]

Amazin' Avenue is a little more bearish on Dunn, ranking him at #8. They cite stamina and a fastball which they say finishes flat.

On the other hand, there's not much scouting you can do in 30 innings. His stock could really crash or soar this year as he moves to full season ball.

[Frayed Knot]

BA's Q & A on the heels of their NYM Top-10 list.

[Edgy MD]

My takeaways.

(1) The system looks closer to recovering from the 2015 purging than I realized, and some steps forward by some backenders like Woodmansee or Mazeika could go a long way. The depth seems back, if not the same volume of blue chippers.

(2) Given a chance to choose between Rosario and Gleyber Torres, he hedged, and even seemed to lean toward Rosario, which is amazing, considering Torres just buzzed through the AFL like a boss and his stock couldn't be any higher.

(3) There's this question ...

Neil Diamond (Brooklyn): Hi Matt, wondering about Harol Gonzalez, is he a prospect worth watching off of his big year for my Cyclones. Matt Eddy: Yes, RHP Harol Gonzalez is a prospect of interest. He doesn’t have huge stuff, but he has fine command for his age and quality secondary pitches. It’s easy for pitchers of this ilk to dominate the lower minors, so if Gonzalez continues to excel at Double-A then we can start to get excited.

Neil Diamond!

(4) Also ...

Death Of A Gsellman (Pasadena, CA): I have seen Gsellman rated as 70/60 from BP to a B- from Sickels to a 45 somewhere else. I watched a couple of Mets games recently on MLB.tv and he looked pretty dang good. Why such the range of views and what FV grade would you slap on him? Matt Eddy: OK, I will post this one because of the creative user handle. I can’t comment on rankings from other sources. Yes, Gsellman looked good during his September callup (see above comment for September evaluations). And he gritted through a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder, which speaks to his toughness. We put a future 50 grade on him: playoff-caliber No. 4 starter.

Death of a Gsellman! Sign that guy up!

[MFS62]

BA's Q & A on the heels of their NYM Top-10 list.

About two of my adoptees:
He gave Bucerra a mulligan because of injuries.
He gave Montero a bogey because of, I guess, lack of coach-ability.

Later

[Edgy MD]

Also (5) the Mets may get really raided in the Rule 5 draft.

[Edgy MD]

Amazin' Avenue's #7—Gavin Cecchini: I think a lot of rankers are finding it easy to put Rosario and Smith on top, but find #s 3–8 pretty interchangable. They like his consistent contact hitting a lot but are concerned that none of his secondary skills are standing out. He's got to see more time at second, but if Rivera doesn't make the big league roster, that job will mostly be his in AAA.

[Edgy MD]

Amazin' Avenue's #6—Brandon nimmo: His strong year in Vegas seems to have convinced most watchers that he's a genuine big leaguer, but the issue is whether he's a full-timer or a part-timer. And it seems that he's getting more votes for the latter at this point.

[Edgy MD]

Amazin' Avenue's #5—Dominic Smith: His contact ability and defensive abilities seem to draw universal faith. Even with his 14 homers this season, there's still concern over whether his power will emerge. Me and bmfc saw him on the same night and we were both more concerned with the bowling ball he carries around under his shirt.

Amazin' Avenue's #4—Desmond Lindsay: Unlike Nimmo, his first two partial seasons in short-season ball have forced the issue a bit, suggesting a quicker climb is in order. Nagging hamstring injuries are the only thing tempering his reviews (and possibly tempering a more rapid advancement).

[A Boy Named Seo]

Amazin' Avenue's #5—Dominic Smith: His contact ability and defensive abilities seem to draw universal faith. Even with his 14 homers this season, there's still concern over whether his power will emerge. Me and bmfc saw him on the same night and we were both more concerned with the bowling ball he carries around under his shirt. Amazin' Avenue's #4—Desmond Lindsay: Unlike Nimmo, his first two partial seasons in short-season ball have forced the issue a bit, suggesting a quicker climb is in order. Nagging hamstring injuries are the only thing tempering his reviews (and possibly tempering a more rapid advancement).

I'm not entirely put-off by a better fielding version of Eric Hosmer, but I was shocked when I saw how much Dom Smith had ballooned up.

[Edgy MD]

Amazin' Avenue's #3—Thomas Szapucki: If prospect fatigue can interfere with a fair ranking of Nimmo, I guess folks should be wary of prospect novelty with this guy, because he's sure got a lot of sudden helium after nine starts split between Kingspo' and Brooly'. I'm excited too, but everybody seems to be ga-ga over his spin rate, which is, like, a brand new thing, and its meaning is probably harder to glean than all that.

[ashie62]

This may be redundant but Baseball America's Mets Top 10 prospects

1. Amed Rosario
2.Brandon Nimmo
3. Desmond Lindsay
4. Dominic Smith
5. Gabriel Ynoa
6. Gavin Cecchini
7 Dustin Dunn
8. Tom Szapucko
9. Robert Gsellman
10. Thomas Nito

Nito is catcher.

It feels like Dominic Smith has been all over the prospect map for awhile now. I take it he is portly.

[bmfc1]

Amazin' Avenue's #5—Dominic Smith: His contact ability and defensive abilities seem to draw universal faith. Even with his 14 homers this season, there's still concern over whether his power will emerge. Me and bmfc saw him on the same night and we were both more concerned with the bowling ball he carries around under his shirt.

Not a great picture but yes, he's definitely a big boy and also, "baby's got back" (not pictured).

[Guest themetfairy]

Here's a better picture. Yes, he's got back.

[A Boy Named Seo]

He was listed ~205 lbs when he was drafted in 2013, but now is listed at 250. Seems he's going for a "Prince Fielder with less power" thing.

[Frayed Knot]

... he's definitely a big boy and also, "baby's got back".

To quote Kevin Mitchell, during a telecast in SD earlier this year when he joined Gary & Ron in the booth for an inning or two, while discussing Yeonis Cespedes: 'I always say about hitters, ya gotta have the gluteus'



Smith never was one of those 'body beautiful' guys even as a teenager [billBean]'We're not selling jeans here!'[/billybean]
If he's totally blown up since then it certainly wouldn't be a good sign although I'd be leery of basing that off published weights alone.

[Edgy MD]

Amazin' Avenue's #2—Robert Gsellman: These guys seem to be universally gsiddy over this guy, including one who calls him a top-20-overall prospect. What I hadn't realized is the angle that, rather than him being just more and better from 2015 to 2016, Gsellman completely changed his approach from one year to the next, which is particularly exciting when you consider that he was effective in both seasons. When you successfully change on the fly like that, it gives you a broad foundation to stand on, to mix metaphors a bit.

[Lefty Specialist]

Egsiting.

[Edgy MD]

A shocking upset!

Amazin' Avenue's #1—Amed Rosario: The only flag here seems to be an unusual swing trajectory that starts high. One guy says it looks like a potential hole but nobody's exploited it yet. Another guy says it could lead to more power. The bottom line in the comments seems to be that he's really close to done cooking: "By the end of 2017"; "I expect the future to begin in 2017"; "Don't be surprised, be ready."