The annual Mex17 FA priority list

[Mex17]

I know. . .I disappear all season and then resurface only to fret and complain over the Hot Stove. It's just how I roll.

BUT, without further ado, if one of the following six is not a Met in 2017 then we are in for a long season.

Cespedes, obviously. But how long do you wait him out before pursuing other options?
http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/stats/_/id/32080/yoenis-cespedes

Edwin Encarnacion. How many years do you give to a guy going into his age 34 season?
http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/stats/_/id/5904

Mark Trumbo. Would he be willing to sign earlier and for less years than Cespedes?
http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/stats/_/id/29322

Ian Desmond. This is where the drop-off starts. Less power but still productive. Would probably be a little cheaper.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/stats/_/id/29646

Jose Bautista. Age risk coming off a down year, but probably will not reduce his price in spite of that. Realistically, he might even really just be a platoon-level player with Conforto at this point, but do you actually think he would accept that role?
http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/stats/_/id/5890

Matt Holliday. At this stage, a Cuddyer-like signing, but hopefully cheaper than Cuddyer actually was. Veteran presence. Probably his a little bit left in the tank. Would platoon with Conforto.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/stats/_/id/5940

Discuss. . .

Edited November 6, 2016 by Guest

[Centerfield]

Welcome Backman!

Other than Cespedes, it's a rough list. All of the options listed are older, more inconsistent and worse in the field. If the Mets don't think Cespedes is worth the commitment, then I can't see how they could justify commitments to anyone else.

This is what makes it so tough for the Mets. They need a middle of the lineup threat, but the options outside of Yo look so unattractive.

I haven't heard anything about the trade market, so maybe something could develop there, but you'd think the competition would be stiff, as I imagine most clubs kinda feel the same way about these shitty options in the FA market.

Making things worse is that there aren't even good starting pitchers on the market for teams to blow their budget on.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

The list below Ces has the distinct waft of Bay leaves.

[Centerfield]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: The list below Ces has the distinct waft of Bay leaves.

Right? Especially Bautista. Like Bay, we could have the distinction of having him both before and after he was good.

[Mex17]

And so it starts. . .

https://www.sny.tv/mets/news/mets-have-inquired-about-bautista/208354368

I had no idea that the Mets actually had Bautista for five minutes before including him in the Kris/Anna Benson trade. Funny thing is that was the deal that day that I actually liked. I was actually in Minneapolis that day visiting a friend and we were in a bar pre-gaming for a Twins-Red Sox matchup when then Kazmir-for-Zambrano trade was announced on ESPN. . .it put me in such a bad mood that my one and only experience of the Metrodome was ruined.

[Frayed Knot]

The Bautista part of the Benson deal came about because the Pirates had been raped in that year's 'Rule 5' draft, losing like four players right off the top including Bautista to the Orioles although within six months he had moved to Tampa and then KC getting a grand total of 48 ABs along the way. But Pittsburgh saw deadline deal season as a chance to get one of their guys back so they stuck one more hurdle on the Mets before agreeing to the Benson/Keppinger trade and that was to go pry Bautista away from the Royals and add him to the package of Wigginton and (RHP) Matt Peterson. So the Mets dealt their Australian born minor league catcher Justin Huber (for a time a middling/good prospect) to get Bautista and immediately flipped him to Pittsburgh.
I think the lesson in both NYM deals that week (Benson & Kazmir) is the danger you get into once you decide a player is a 'Must Get' to the point where there's almost no hoop you won't jump through to get him without remembering that there's always got to be at price at which you'll walk away. Not that everyone necessarily knew that Bautista was that guy at the time (as the fact that he bopped around through four orgs., one of them twice, in a seven month span shows) but more as a lesson in general as I think in both cases they decided that Benson & Zambrano were what they wanted and that anything Tampa or Pitt asked for at that point became worth it in the Mets' eyes.

Bautista, btw, wound up sitting in the minors for Pitt over most of the next two years before finally becoming a full-time player at age 25. Four years after the NYM deal Pitt sent him to Toronto for a PtbNL (catcher Robinson Diaz who wound up with 139 ML ABs) and it wasn't until two years after that, at age 29, that he broke out by hitting 97 HRs over two season despite having never before topped 16 in any year. Someday maybe someone will study his career and figure it all out ... but it certainly has been an odd one.





Anyway, back to modern day business -- From he SNY piece: "Bautista is expected to ask for a six-year deal worth at least $150 million, FanRag's MLB reporter Jon Heyman wrote earlier in the offseason. According to multiple reports, free-agent OF Yoenis Cespedes is looking for a similar deal."

While they can ask for anything they want, I don't see Yeonis swinging a 6/150 deal and Bautista, IMO, ain't getting close to that.
FWIW, Davidoff in the NYPost is forecasting Cespedes back to the Mets at 4/110 and Bautista back to his current team at 3/65

[Centerfield]

Bautista is an interesting case. In the event Cespedes leaves, he's one of the few guys with the upside to replace his production. But some real red flags to consider.

*Obviously age. How many years do you commit to a guy who, not only is a risk to decline, but seems to be a year into it already?

*Sucked until age 30, when he suddenly went from HR totals of 12, 15 and 13 to 54 in 2010. You have to at least consider PEDs no?

*Not a very good fielder

I don't know. It would seem to be that if Bautista was a Met in 2017, it would be the result of a panic move after having lost Cespedes. And Sandy Alderson doesn't panic.

[Centerfield]

Also, one guy not on your list is Carlos Beltran.

Coming off a strong year, no plans to retire.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/3971/carlos-beltran

[Guest d'Kong76]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: The list below Ces has the distinct waft of Bay leaves.

I must embarrassingly admit that I just got this. I'm losing it...

[Benjamin Grimm]

I find myself craving Dexter Fowler. Not to replace Cespedes, but to play alongside him.

For the Mets, of course.

[Centerfield]

I like him too. I mean, he has his red flags. Speed guy, wrong side of 30, always played in pitchers parks and coming off a big year for him.

But I like the OBP he brings to the table. But if you have Ces and Fowler (and presumably Conforto), then you are looking at trading two lefty-hitting outfielders in Granderson and Bruce. And I'm not sure Granderson has any value.

It's frustrating. These pieces just don't fit nicely.

On Edit: Looks like Fowler has draft pick compensation tied to him too. But I would guess if you are signing Fowler, you aren't signing both Ces and Walker, so maybe that is a wash.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm thinking they sign Cespedes and Fowler, trade Bruce, then let Conforto and Granderson compete for playing time.

[Centerfield]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I'm thinking they sign Cespedes and Fowler, trade Bruce, then let Conforto and Granderson compete for playing time.

I think I'd be cool with that. Especially if they traded Bruce for Buster Posey or Andrew Miller!

[Frayed Knot]

On Edit: Looks like Fowler has draft pick compensation tied to him too. But I would guess if you are signing Fowler, you aren't signing both Ces and Walker, so maybe that is a wash.

Not quite a wash.
The draft pick a team loses for signing a QO FA is their own 1st round selection (or 2nd rounder in the case of a bottom 10 team) but the pick they get for someone else signing their QO guy is a supplemental pick added in following Round #1
In the case of next June's draft the Mets are currently slated to picked 22nd so a scenario where they sign one and lose one would wind up dropping their first selection some 10-15 slots in the order (depending on various yet to be determined factors) partially but not completely making up for the lost pick.

[Centerfield]

Got it. That makes sense.

[Centerfield]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I find myself craving Dexter Fowler. Not to replace Cespedes, but to play alongside him. For the Mets, of course.

Seems unlikely, according to an unnamed team source, who's actual quote is not in this article.

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/mets-free-agent-splash-yoenis-cespedes-walks-article-1.2864911

Cespedes or dick!

[Vic Sage]

Dick who?

[Benjamin Grimm]

The way things went last night, I would assume Nixon.

[Vic Sage]

Otis?

[ashie62]

Rotoworld has the Yankees and Nationals in on Cespedes.

I read that Sandy talked with Jose Bautista.

My brother told me he heard the name Joe Blanton for the bullpen. Seems like Blanton has been around 20 years.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Fowler, Bautista... whither Johnny Lags?

[Edgy MD]

It's just nice to go into the GM meetings with a GM this year.

[ashie62]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Fowler, Bautista... whither Johnny Lags?

If Johnny Lags could just do more on offense.