2015-16 Prospect Season

[Frayed Knot]

BA chimes in with their list:

1. Steven Matz, lhp
2. Amed Rosario, ss
3. Dominic Smith, 1b
4. Gavin Cecchini, ss
5. Brandon Nimmo, of
6. Marcos Molina, rhp
7. Luis Carpio, ss/2b
8. Desmond Lindsay, of
9. Matt Reynolds, ss/2b
10. Wuilmer Becerra, of

and a Q & A session to go along with it.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/new-york-mets-top-10-prospects-chat/

[Benjamin Grimm]

Does Matz retain his rookie status? I know he's under the innings limit, but I don't know if his DL time counts as days of service.

[Frayed Knot]

DL time counts as service time as far as contract status and all of that.
But I believe rookie status is determined by active roster time and the prospect ratings orgs usually follow that.

[Centerfield]

I guess it was inevitable considering the success we have enjoyed recently, but my takeaway from that list is that, other than Matz, no one else will be helping the big club in 2016.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Reynolds maybe? Nimmo?

[Guest d'Kong76]

Someone, MFS I think, posted the list yesterday in another thread.
I looked at BA site and read some other page that said Matz stays
on because of time lost or something like that. I thought it was odd
that he would still be listed too.

CF, didn't you want Reynolds to be the everyday shortstop early
in the season? Have you soured on him that much already?

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: DL time counts as service time as far as contract status and all of that. But I believe rookie status is determined by active roster time and the prospect ratings orgs usually follow that.

it's specifically an inning/PA count.

Conforto was 60 over or so.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Ceetar wrote: it's specifically an inning/PA count.

No, it's more than that:

Determining rookie status: A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or ( accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).

I guess Matz probably didn't have 45 days on the active roster before September 1.

[Centerfield]

d'Kong76 wrote: Someone, MFS I think, posted the list yesterday in another thread. I looked at BA site and read some other page that said Matz stays on because of time lost or something like that. I thought it was odd that he would still be listed too. CF, didn't you want Reynolds to be the everyday shortstop early in the season? Have you soured on him that much already?

He had great numbers last year over AA and AAA. Heard a report that he was the best defender in the Mets system.

Then he dropped his OPS over 100 points this year while playing in Vegas. Looks more to be a 1 year fluke rather than actual progress.

[Edgy MD]

The Dodgers and Cubs couldn't get him out in the post-season.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Fun to see a name I don't know anything about, Luis Carpio, make the list. I imagine a combination of Mike Carp and Jorge Julio

[Frayed Knot]

From the on-line Q&A session re: the future of the middle infield

Q: In three years who do you think the 2B and SS are?

A: I’m inclined to say Amed Rosario at shortstop and Wilmer Flores at second base. Obviously that means players like Dilson Herrera, Gavin Cecchini and Matt Reynolds could be utility players or trade fodder (though nothing ever plays out as planned in baseball, it seems). Flores showed me something this year by hitting 16 HR during the season, playing an adequate shortstop at a time when the club really needs him and getting better swings on RHPs as the season progressed.

and then later in the session: Las Vegas SS Matt Reynolds has a lower ceiling than most prospects in the Mets top 20, but he’s much closer to his ceiling than anyone outside the top five overall.

[Centerfield]

In other words, he's nothing spectacular, but he's around.

Kind of like the Monica Lewinsky of baseball.

[Edgy MD]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Fun to see a name I don't know anything about, Luis Carpio, make the list. I imagine a combination of Mike Carp and Jorge Julio

Handsome 18-year-old Venezuelan who jumped the GCL, going from the DSL to Kingsport, where you'll almost never see a top-ten prospect. But he got on base with a Dilsonian efficiency. He explodes out of a a squat stance like Ricky Henderson, but isn't a big stealer. They like how he moves on D but they aren't projecting a lot of growth in his game in the future.

[bmfc1]

The AFL All-Star Game is on MLBN this Saturday at 8. You can see Dominick Smith.
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/156166350/afl-fall-stars-game-rosters-announced?topicid=153494546
[u:d37g0f0g]
The AFL on MLBN (the Mets players are on Salt River):[/u:d37g0f0g]
Friday, November 6, 2:30 PM: Peoria Javelinas at Surprise Saguaros (at Salt River Fields in Scottsdale, AZ)
Saturday, November 7, 8:00 PM: Fall Stars Game from Salt River Fields in Scottsdale, AZ
Wednesday, November 11, 9:00 PM: Peoria Javelinas at Salt River Rafters
Saturday, November 14, 8:00 PM (Military Appreciation Day): Surprise Saguaros at Salt River Rafters
Saturday, November 21, 3:00 PM: Arizona Fall League Championship Game from Scottsdale Stadium in Scottsdale, AZ

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Keith Law filed this from the Arizona Fall League:

Mets first baseman Dom Smith is one of the top pure hitting prospects in the minors, and he showed it this week in the Valley with hard-hit ball after hard-hit ball and some outstanding at-bats (as well as a couple where he barked at the ump over some strike calls). I counted eight hard-hit balls in play, none more impressive than the enormous home run he hit to right-center off a slider away from a right-hander, although the broken-bat single he got off a 96 mph fastball in on his hands was almost as stunning given what it says about his hand and wrist strength. Smith's swing is so simple, and despite the lack of home runs in two full seasons in the minors -- both in bad power parks -- there is raw power in there and it's going to come as he moves up the ladder.

[Edgy MD]

If Smith comes strong, bloody hell.

[MFS62]

Smith won't be in the AFL All Star game because of an injury that will keep him out 1-2 weeks. I read this a few days ago, but can't find the link.
The Mets will be the only team without an ASG representative because SS Gavin Cecchini will be playing for Team USA.


OE: found it. It was Rubin:

NEW YORK -- First baseman Dominic Smith’s torrid start in the Arizona Fall League is on hold. Smith, a top New York Mets prospect, suffered a strain and may be sidelined for the next week or two. The 11th overall pick in the 2013 draft, Smith had been selected for Saturday’s AFL Rising Stars Game, but no longer is expected to participate. He is hitting .385 with one homer, five RBIs and a .519 on-base percentage through 12 games with Salt River. Smith, 20, is expected to open next season with Double-A Binghamton. He was named the Florida State League player of the year while competing for Class A St. Lucie in 2015. Smith hit .305 with six homers and 79 RBIs in 456 at-bats and also displayed above-average defense.

Later

Edited November 8, 2015 by Guest

[Centerfield]

I am really excited about Dom Smith. He sounds like he has the potential to be Keith Hernandez or John Olerud.

If he ever develops power? Wow.

Am really liking the idea of Smith-Conforto in the future.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Dom Smith conducting an in-game interview during tonight's AFL game, sounding bright and more than a little intense.

Also, not playing (and out of action for the last week or so), because of a muscle strain, apparently?

[Centerfield]

Reading up on this list now. Matz is already here, Rosario is years away and hasn't started hitting yet.

Basically only Dom Smith and Cecchini look to be difference makers. The rest kinda sound like filler.

Not a real power hitting prospect in the entire organization.

[Edgy MD]

The nature of the system and the game is that power doesn't typically start to outwardly reveal itself until around AA. Certainly was true of Conforto. Duda too.

I think folks would certainly describe Becerra as a power prospect.

[Centerfield]

That's true. No one hits for power in St. Lucie. And you are correct about Becerra.

It will be interesting to see how the farm system produces now that we are making the transition from Minaya-era draft picks (Matz is, I believe, the last one) to Alderson-era draft picks (Conforto and Plawecki I think are the first).

Not on this list is Dilson Herrera, who I think can be a terrific player.

It will be weird not debuting an ace this year. That's like kinda what we do.

[Frayed Knot]

Anytime you debut the likes of Syndergaard, Matz, and Conforto in the same season your prospect list is going to take a serious hit.

[Frayed Knot]

BASEBALL PROSPECTUS is just starting up their 2016 prospect previews and they happened to kick it off with the Tigers.
So just for fun, let's see how they look at what we gave up for two months of Yoenis

#1 Michael Fulmer, RHP
DOB: 03/15/1993 -- 6’ 3” 200 lbs. -- Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 44th overall in the 2011 MLB Draft by the New York Mets; signed for $950,000; acquired in Yoenis Cespedes trade.
Previous Ranking(s): NR
2015 Stats: 2.24 ERA, 124 IP, 104 H, 30 BB, 125 K at High-A St. Lucie, Double-A Binghamton, and Double-A Erie.
Future Tools: 65 fastball, 60 slider, 50 change
Role: 55—Above-average starting pitcher

The last few years saw Fulmer show glimpses of what made him a top-50 draft prospect back in 2011, and he finally put it all together in 2015. More than one scout told me that Fulmer was not just the most improved pitcher in the Mets system, but in all of baseball.

His fastball took a step up, going from 91-93 mph to consistently sitting in the mid-90s, touching 97. The slider is another plus pitch, an 86-88 offering with hard, downward tilt that he threw for strikes more consistently in 2015 than in previous seasons. He’ll also show an average curveball with some spin and 11-5 break, and a fringe-average change that is the weak link in his development. He’s always thrown strikes, as suggested by his 2.9 BB/9 career mark, but his command experienced a bump up, thanks to an improved ability to repeat his high three-quarters arm slot and delivery.

The question marks going forward for Fulmer are whether he can show the same stuff and produce the same results at higher levels while handling a bigger workload (he hasn’t topped the 125-inning mark). If he can, he’s a potential no. 2 starter, with high-leverage reliever a more likely possibility if his health and consistency issues persist. As bad as the Tigers farm still is, Fulmer is a legit top-of-the-system option, and represents a strong return for an impending free agent in Cespedes.


#10 Luis Cessa, RHP
DOB: 04/25/1992 -- 6’3” 190 lbs. -- Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Signed July 9, 2008 out of Mexico by the New York Mets; acquired in the Yoenis Cespedes trade.
Previous Ranking(s): Unranked
2015 Stats: 4.52 ERA, 139.1 IP, 163 H, 36 BB, 119 K at Double-A Binghamton, Triple-A Las Vegas, and Triple-A Toledo
Future Tools: 60 fastball, 50 change
Role: 40—Back-end starter/middle-innings reliever

The “other” arm acquired in the Cespedes deal, Cessa doesn’t offer the same kind of upside as Fulmer but does have a chance to pitch in a big-league rotation. The fastball is plus, generally sitting 92-94 with some downhill plane and sink, and could play up in shorter spurts because of his arm strength. The change is his best secondary pitch because of his arm speed and it features some late fade. His fringe-average slider will sometimes flatten, but it’s a pitch he throws for strikes with tilt when he finishes the delivery. It’s very much a back-end profile—and Detroit may be tempted to see if the stuff plays up in a bullpen role—but his ability to throw strikes does give him a chance to pitch every fifth day.

[Centerfield]

Fullmer sounds pretty good.

That was not fun at all.

[Frayed Knot]

Centerfield wrote: Fullmer sounds pretty good. That was not fun at all.

Eh, I'd still do the deal again in a second.

And he's also not there yet. Don't skip over the usual caveats about how if he DOESN'T develop as hoped they predict a good career as a solid bullpen arm which, if we had kept him, could have led to the 20/20 hindsight lament about how we should have dealt him back in '15 during his one solid year when he peaked in AA.
Well, in this case, we did!

So, yeah, he'll be a top 50 prospect this winter (prolly even top 25 and top 10 among RHPs) and may go on to have a great career.
But I also remember the year Homer Bailey and Phil Hughes were 1 & 1A among pitching prospects (and top 5-10 overall). And while both are in the midst of decent careers, neither are the type you build a franchise around.
And if we were reluctant to deal away pitching this year, when could we ever?!?

[Centerfield]

I agree. Even knowing what we know now, that Cespedes is likely gone, you still have to make the deal.

It's just that when the deal was made I was all like "Great! We didn't trade Syndergaard, Matz and Conforto! Who the fuck is Michael Fullmer? I don't care!"

And now it just hurts a little more. Here's to hoping he's Kevin Mulvey.

Also, Dilson Herrera dropped off the list this year as well. That's quite a haul for one year: Syndergaard, Matz, Conforto, Herrera.

[Frayed Knot]

The Sickels List

Overall this system has thinned out mainly due to graduations. There remains a quite of bit of potential particularly at the lower levels and the Mets obviously put a great deal of focus on up-the-middle defense. I like the Latin American signings of Gimenez and Guerrero but the Mets have also done good work developing guys with lower bonuses and less press into useful assets.

1) Steven Matz, LHP, Grade A-/A: Age 24, 2.05 ERA with 107/34 K/BB in 105 innings in minors, 2.27 ERA with 34/10 K/BB in 36 innings in the majors plus work in the post-season. A great story, hometown boy who overcame injuries, major league ready. Only question really is durability but most recent injury was not arm-related.

2) Dominic Smith, 1B, Grade B: Age 20, hit .305/.354/.417 with 33 doubles, six homers, 35 walks, 75 strikeouts in 456 at-bats in High-A. Strong feel for hitting with good defensive reviews, main doubt remains power projection but has made some progress. Still draws James Loney comps.

3) Amed Rosario, SS, Grade B: Age 20, hit .253/.302/.329 with 23 walks, 78 strikeouts in 395 at-bats in High-A. Bat is not very good right now but he is quite young, glove looks very strong, will need to boost OBP skills and/or increase power but young enough for that to happen.

4) Gavin Cecchini, SS, Grade B-: Age 21, hit .317/.377/.442 in Double-A, bat is improving but defense has stagnated and there’s some talk now he may have to switch to second base. Interesting how his reputation has changed from good-field-no-hit to good-hit-?-field over the last two years.

5) Brandon Nimmo, OF, Grade B-: Age 22, hit .269/.362/.372 between Double-A and Triple-A. Power is not developing but he gets on base. Looking more and more like a platoon/role player but that can still have value.

6) Wuilmer Becerra, OF, Grade B-: Age 21, hit .290/.342/.423 with nine homers, 16 steals, 33/96 BB/K in 449 at-bats in Low-A. Solid right field tool set and growing into his power, I think he is a breakout candidate for 2016.

7) Desmond Lindsay, Of, Grade B-/C+: Projection pick, age 18, second round pick in 2015, hit .263/.364/.386 in 114 at-bats between rookie ball and New York-Penn League. High-ceiling player with raw power, speed, strong overall tools, another right field candidate who will need time to develop but could be a multi-category regular.

8) Marcos Molina, RHP, Grade C+/B-: Age 20, all the rage a year ago after 2014 domination of NY-P but missed much of 2015 with injuries, posted 4.57 ERA with 36/11 K/BB in 41 innings in High-A. Second-best pitching arm in the system behind Matz but questions about durability, long-term role preclude a higher grade at this time.

9) Milton Ramos, SS, Grade C+: Age 20, hit .317/.341/.415 in Appalachian League, third round pick in 2014, superior defensive ability at shortstop and hit for average this year, lacks distance power, part of Mets focus to stay strong up the middle with gloves.

10) Luis Carpio, SS, Grade C+: Age 18, hit .304/.372/.359 in Appy League, another defense-oriented player though likely to wind up at second base eventually. Another contact hitter lacking present power but young enough to get better.

11) Ali Sanchez, C, Grade C+: Age 18, Venezuelan catcher hit .278/.339/.315 in rookie ball, threw out almost 50% of runners with very low error and passed ball rates, glove draws raves and may hit eventually.

12) Chris Flexen, RHP, Grade C+: Age 21, Tommy John recovery guy easy to overlook, posted 1.87 ERA with 33/7 K/BB in 34 innings in Low-A after returning in August, looks fully recovered at this stage. A major sleeper before he got hurt and has regained that status with renewed health.

13) Eudor Garcia, 3B, Grade C+: Age 21, hit .296/.340/.442 with nine homers, 22 walks, 95 strikeouts in 398 at-bats in Low-A, third round pick in 2014 from El Paso Community College. Defensive projection, strike zone judgment are questions but one of the highest ceiling bats in the system. Could rank as high as nine.

14) Andres Gimenez, SS, Grade C+: Venezuelan shortstop signed for $1,200,000, hasn’t played yet, many experts rated him as the top Venezuelan talent available last year, has a chance to stay at shortstop and is expected to hit for average with a chance for moderate power.

15) Gregory Guerrero, SS, Grade C+: Dominican shortstop signed for $1,500,000, cousin of Vlad Guerrero Jr who signed with Blue Jays, Gregory doesn’t have the same kind of bat but is still expected to hit for average with decent power and more defensive versatility. Could slot at second for a high-ceiling DP combo with Gimenez.

16) Akeel Morris, RHP, Grade C+: Age 23, posted 2.05 ERA with 81/29 K/BB in 61 inning between High-A and Double-A, walked three in one major league innings. No question about velocity and K/IP isn’t lying about his stuff but walks obviously a big factor, could close eventually if he can solve the control issue.

17) Jeff McNeil, INF, Grade C+: Age 23, 12th round pick in 2013 from Long Beach State, hit .312/.373/.382 with 16 steals in High-A. Very good glove, versatile, scrappy type, hits from left side, career .305/.375/.389 hitter. Utility projection but not impossible he could exceed that.

18) Matt Reynolds, SS, Grade C+/C: Age 24, hit disappointing .267/.31/.402 in Triple-A after hitting .333/.385/.479 at the same level in 2014. Another utility projection with versatile glove you can play just about anywhere, bat not as good as it looked in ’14 but could probably hit .250 and hold a bench job.

19) Max Wotell, LHP, Grade C+/C: Age 19, third round pick from North Carolina high school this year, posted 2.53 ERA with 16/9 K/BB in 11 innings in rookie ball. Long way off, but projectable type that the Mets have had good luck with in the past.

20) Jhoan Urena, 3B, Grade C+/C: Age 21, hit disappointing .222/.274/.302 between High-A and rookie ball rehab, missed much of season with a wrist injury and hit very poorly after returning. Was much better when healthy in 2014 (.300/.356/.431 in NY-P). Could rebound.



FK: Lots of lower-level potential-types particularly in middle of the diamond positions, the kinds who are still a ways off and could swing wildly in either direction over the next few years.
Some of the discussion/comments at the end are worth reading for some more detail and as a reminder that opinions vary and none of this stuff is etched in stone.

[Frayed Knot]

More on Dom Smith. This from BA who had him on their top AFL prospects list.

While Smith verges on earning the dreaded “bad body” label, he silenced any doubts about his hitting ability in the AFL with a strong .362/.483/.511 batting line. Scouts who observed the bulky lefthanded hitter earlier in his minor league career were pleased to see a more confident hitter capable of pulling the ball better and turning on pitches, and expect that Smith’s long-awaited power is about to emerge. He has a picturesque swing, with the power in his hands and wrists allowing him to make hard contact to all fields, and he showed solid plate discipline with 12 walks in 60 plate appearances. Smith grades as a plus defender at first base, with good hands and enough agility around the bag. He missed a couple of weeks with an oblique injury but made it back to the Salt River lineup for the last few games of the fall season.