Return of the NHOP

[Benjamin Grimm]

Nationals won today in Miami, and if their hopes started to rise when they saw the Mets down by 3 in the 9th with two out and nobody on, those hopes were quickly dashed. Mets win 10-7 in 10 innings.

The Mets division lead remains at 9.5 games. The magic number drops to 11. NHOP goes from .293 to .282.

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423
August 28	71-57	64-63	6.5	29	69	0.420
August 29	71-58	65-63	5.5	29	67	0.433
August 30	72-58	66-63	5.5	28	65	0.431
August 31	73-58	66-64	6.5	26	63	0.413
September 1	73-59	66-65	6.5	25	61	0.410
September 2	74-59	67-65	6.5	24	59	0.407
September 3	74-59	68-65	6	24	58	0.414
September 4	74-60	69-65	5	24	56	0.429
September 5	75-60	70-65	5	23	54	0.426
September 6	75-61	71-65	4	23	52	0.442
September 7	76-61	71-66	5	21	50	0.420
September 8	77-61	71-67	6	19	48	0.396
September 9	78-61	71-68	7	17	46	0.370
September 10	79-61	71-68	7.5	16	45	0.356
September 11	80-61	71-69	8.5	14	43	0.326
September 12	81-61	71-70	9.5	12	41	0.293
September 13	82-61	72-70	9.5	11	39	0.282

[Benjamin Grimm]

The Nationals won another game yesterday, this time against the Phillies, but they gain no ground, since the Mets defeated the Marlins. The division lead remains at 9.5 games, the magic number drops from 11 to 10, and the NHOP drops to another season low, from .282 to .270.

No more need for Tragic Number updates in the NL East, as the Marlins, Phillies, and Braves have all been eliminated, leaving only the Nationals, and their Tragic Number matches the Mets' Magic Number.

Baseball Propsectus update: Mets are at 99.9% to win the division.

World Championship odds for current division leaders:

Blue Jays 18.5%
Dodgers 18.2%
Astros 13.5%
Mets 11.3%
Royals 8.5%
Cardinals 7.8%

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423
August 28	71-57	64-63	6.5	29	69	0.420
August 29	71-58	65-63	5.5	29	67	0.433
August 30	72-58	66-63	5.5	28	65	0.431
August 31	73-58	66-64	6.5	26	63	0.413
September 1	73-59	66-65	6.5	25	61	0.410
September 2	74-59	67-65	6.5	24	59	0.407
September 3	74-59	68-65	6	24	58	0.414
September 4	74-60	69-65	5	24	56	0.429
September 5	75-60	70-65	5	23	54	0.426
September 6	75-61	71-65	4	23	52	0.442
September 7	76-61	71-66	5	21	50	0.420
September 8	77-61	71-67	6	19	48	0.396
September 9	78-61	71-68	7	17	46	0.370
September 10	79-61	71-68	7.5	16	45	0.356
September 11	80-61	71-69	8.5	14	43	0.326
September 12	81-61	71-70	9.5	12	41	0.293
September 13	82-61	72-70	9.5	11	39	0.282
September 14	83-61	73-70	9.5	10	37	0.270

[Frayed Knot]

If nothing else, 9.5 with 18 remaining is a better cushion than 7 with 17 -- as is not having any potential crushing head-to-head sweeps until it's almost certainly going to be too late to matter.
In 2007 that 7/17 lead following a Wednesday game against the Braves was, by Sunday afternoon, down to a much more precarious 3.5/14 after an off-day where the Phils won then the three game sweep by the Phils.

[Centerfield]

When the NHOP reaches zero, I think we should all have pancakes.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yesterday: not a good day. Nationals beat the Phillies, Mets lose to the Marlins. The magic number remains at 10. The division lead drops to 8.5 games. And the NHOP rises, from .270 to .286.

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423
August 28	71-57	64-63	6.5	29	69	0.420
August 29	71-58	65-63	5.5	29	67	0.433
August 30	72-58	66-63	5.5	28	65	0.431
August 31	73-58	66-64	6.5	26	63	0.413
September 1	73-59	66-65	6.5	25	61	0.410
September 2	74-59	67-65	6.5	24	59	0.407
September 3	74-59	68-65	6	24	58	0.414
September 4	74-60	69-65	5	24	56	0.429
September 5	75-60	70-65	5	23	54	0.426
September 6	75-61	71-65	4	23	52	0.442
September 7	76-61	71-66	5	21	50	0.420
September 8	77-61	71-67	6	19	48	0.396
September 9	78-61	71-68	7	17	46	0.370
September 10	79-61	71-68	7.5	16	45	0.356
September 11	80-61	71-69	8.5	14	43	0.326
September 12	81-61	71-70	9.5	12	41	0.293
September 13	82-61	72-70	9.5	11	39	0.282
September 14	83-61	73-70	9.5	10	37	0.270
September 15	83-62	74-70	8.5	10	35	0.286

[Benjamin Grimm]

I would have updated this earlier, but it's been a busy day. Although, I suppose if the update were a happier one I would have found the time.

Yesterday was the second bad day in a row. (It's still too early to worry, I say worriedly.) The Nationals won and the Mets lost. The division lead drops to 7.5 games. The magic number remains at 10. And the NHOP rises above the .300 mark, from .286 to .303.

Remember how happy we were when the lead got to 7 games after the Mets finished up in Washington? We figured the division was all but clinched. Well, right now the lead is a half game larger than it was then, the magic number has dropped by 7, and the NHOP has declined .063 points. So, despite the anguish of the last two days, The Mets are still in better shape now than they were then.

The next few days have the potential to be bumpy. The Mets play a three-game series against the Yankees in Queens while the Nationals host the Marlins for four games. I'm going to set a rather pessimistic "goal": If the Mets have a 6-game lead on Monday morning after all this is done, the magic number will be 8, with each team having 13 games remaining. (The NHOP would be .308, slightly higher than it is now.) But the Mets schedule would be rather easy for the next ten games, and over that period they should be able to get the magic number down to zero.

If the Mets have a lead of more than 6 games on Monday morning, all the better. If the Mets, for example, take two of three from the Yankees and the Nationals split with the Marlins, the lead will be 8 games, and the magic number will be a mere 6. Let's see what happens!

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423
August 28	71-57	64-63	6.5	29	69	0.420
August 29	71-58	65-63	5.5	29	67	0.433
August 30	72-58	66-63	5.5	28	65	0.431
August 31	73-58	66-64	6.5	26	63	0.413
September 1	73-59	66-65	6.5	25	61	0.410
September 2	74-59	67-65	6.5	24	59	0.407
September 3	74-59	68-65	6	24	58	0.414
September 4	74-60	69-65	5	24	56	0.429
September 5	75-60	70-65	5	23	54	0.426
September 6	75-61	71-65	4	23	52	0.442
September 7	76-61	71-66	5	21	50	0.420
September 8	77-61	71-67	6	19	48	0.396
September 9	78-61	71-68	7	17	46	0.370
September 10	79-61	71-68	7.5	16	45	0.356
September 11	80-61	71-69	8.5	14	43	0.326
September 12	81-61	71-70	9.5	12	41	0.293
September 13	82-61	72-70	9.5	11	39	0.282
September 14	83-61	73-70	9.5	10	37	0.270
September 15	83-62	74-70	8.5	10	35	0.286
September 16	83-63	75-70	7.5	10	33	0.303

Upcoming schedule for Mets and Nationals:

	Mets	Nationals
September 17		Miami
September 18	New York (AL)	Miami
September 19	New York (AL)	Miami
September 20	New York (AL)	Miami
September 21	Atlanta	Baltimore
September 22	Atlanta	Baltimore
September 23	Atlanta	Baltimore
September 24	At Cincinnati
September 25	At Cincinnati	Philadelphia
September 26	At Cincinnati	Philadelphia
September 27	At Cincinnati	Philadelphia
September 28		Cincinnati
September 29	At Philadelphia	At Atlanta
September 30	At Philadelphia	At Atlanta
October 1	At Philadelphia	At Atlanta
October 2	Washington	At Mets
October 3	Washington	At Mets
October 4	Washington	At Mets

[Edgy MD]

All of a sudden, that draw looks tougher for the Mets.

[Lefty Specialist]

I wish we could just get this all over and go straight to the postseason.

[Edgy MD]

Or cancel the post-season and call the Mets "Super Champions" if we can hold out and win the division.

Most of the heavy lifting is done that way.

[Frayed Knot]

Another way to look at this is that there are 27 games in total (Mets + Nats combined) prior to the three-game, season-ending, head-to-head series. 14 for the Nats, 13 for the Mets.
Ideally you'd like to be at least 4 up when that series starts to erase even the possibility of a disaster as there'll be no outside help possible once that series starts. The magic number for that scenario is still 10 but it means that a higher percentage of those non h-t-h games will have to go our way (37% - or right about 3 games out of every 8) in order to make that final series meaningless. That's really the number to shoot for.

For a slightly less dark take on things, even if the Nats win tonight while we're idle it would still put us in a one game better situation than in 2007: 7 up with 16 to play. And with the h-t-h series coming at the end of the season, the magic number is unlikely to crash as quickly as it did back then. The problem with '07 is that the Phils won on a night when we were idle to make it 6.5/17 and then came the sweep. The result was that barely 72 hours after the lead was sitting at 7/17 it was suddenly a much more precarious 3.5/14. The magic number went nowhere while the lead was being chopped in half.
In this case, with two separate series going on, even a sweep by them can't ensure a sweep against us so the MN is likely to be smaller by the end of the weekend and the lead larger than it was then even if not as large as it is right now (if that makes any sense). Point is, not only is 3.5/14 impossible but even the worst case scenario (5/14) is highly unlikely to happen.

[Ceetar]

it's just getting unlikely the Mets will clinch at home is all.

[Frayed Knot]

Ceetar wrote: it's just getting unlikely the Mets will clinch at home is all.

Not at all my biggest concern.
8/16 > 7/17

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yesterday the Mets were idle, and the Nationals lost to the Marlins. Yesterday's game was just one of many, probably inconsequential in the long run, but it definitely makes today look quite a bit brighter after the previous couple of days. The Mets lead increases from 7.5 to 8 and the magic number and the NHOP both decreases, from 10 to 9 and from .303 to .281, respectively.

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423
August 28	71-57	64-63	6.5	29	69	0.420
August 29	71-58	65-63	5.5	29	67	0.433
August 30	72-58	66-63	5.5	28	65	0.431
August 31	73-58	66-64	6.5	26	63	0.413
September 1	73-59	66-65	6.5	25	61	0.410
September 2	74-59	67-65	6.5	24	59	0.407
September 3	74-59	68-65	6	24	58	0.414
September 4	74-60	69-65	5	24	56	0.429
September 5	75-60	70-65	5	23	54	0.426
September 6	75-61	71-65	4	23	52	0.442
September 7	76-61	71-66	5	21	50	0.420
September 8	77-61	71-67	6	19	48	0.396
September 9	78-61	71-68	7	17	46	0.370
September 10	79-61	71-68	7.5	16	45	0.356
September 11	80-61	71-69	8.5	14	43	0.326
September 12	81-61	71-70	9.5	12	41	0.293
September 13	82-61	72-70	9.5	11	39	0.282
September 14	83-61	73-70	9.5	10	37	0.270
September 15	83-62	74-70	8.5	10	35	0.286
September 16	83-63	75-70	7.5	10	33	0.303
September 17	83-63	75-71	8	9	32	0.281

[Frayed Knot]

NHOP for clinching prior to the final series = .346

[Benjamin Grimm]

That's a significant number as well. Ideally the Mets will clinch before Washington comes to town. It will save us all a lot of stress.

[Edgy MD]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Yesterday the Mets were idle, and the Nationals lost to the Marlins. Yesterday's game was just one of many, probably inconsequential in the long run, but it definitely makes today look quite a bit brighter after the previous couple of days

Shifts the pressure from the Mets to the Nats, which is no small thing.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Definitely!

Meanwhile, at Baseball Prospectus, the Mets NL East title odds have dipped slightly since the last update a few days ago, from 99.9% to a mere 99.7%.

I've decided to add the most likely Wild Card teams to the World Championship odds list, since one of the division leaders, the Texas Rangers, is ranked below all four of the teams who are currently in line to end up as wild cards.

World Championship odds. (Current division leaders in bold.)

Blue Jays 21.2%
Dodgers 19.1%
Mets 10.0%
Cardinals 9.3%
Royals 8.9%
Astros 8.9%
Yankees 6.1%
Cubs 5.7%
Pirates 4.8%
Rangers 4.4%

[Centerfield]

I thought about it and I decided I'd be happy if the lead is 7 when we wake up Monday morning.

Which is strange because I told myself I'd be happy with a 5 game lead at the end of the Washington series. Being a fan is, in no way rational.

[Benjamin Grimm]

For that to happen, we only need two happy outcomes over the six games that will be played in Queens and Washington from Friday to Sunday.

[table:2axbf3f2][tr:2axbf3f2][td:2axbf3f2]Happy
Outcomes[/td:2axbf3f2][td:2axbf3f2]Monday
Morning
Lead[/td:2axbf3f2][td:2axbf3f2]Magic
Number[/td:2axbf3f2][/tr:2axbf3f2][tr:2axbf3f2][td:2axbf3f2]0[/td:2axbf3f2][td:2axbf3f2]5[/td:2axbf3f2][td:2axbf3f2]9[/td:2axbf3f2][/tr:2axbf3f2][tr:2axbf3f2][td:2axbf3f2]1[/td:2axbf3f2][td:2axbf3f2]6[/td:2axbf3f2][td:2axbf3f2]8[/td:2axbf3f2][/tr:2axbf3f2][tr:2axbf3f2][td:2axbf3f2]2[/td:2axbf3f2][td:2axbf3f2]7[/td:2axbf3f2][td:2axbf3f2]7[/td:2axbf3f2][/tr:2axbf3f2][tr:2axbf3f2][td:2axbf3f2]3[/td:2axbf3f2][td:2axbf3f2]8[/td:2axbf3f2][td:2axbf3f2]6[/td:2axbf3f2][/tr:2axbf3f2][tr:2axbf3f2][td:2axbf3f2]4[/td:2axbf3f2][td:2axbf3f2]9[/td:2axbf3f2][td:2axbf3f2]5[/td:2axbf3f2][/tr:2axbf3f2][tr:2axbf3f2][td:2axbf3f2]5[/td:2axbf3f2][td:2axbf3f2]10[/td:2axbf3f2][td:2axbf3f2]4[/td:2axbf3f2][/tr:2axbf3f2][tr:2axbf3f2][td:2axbf3f2]6[/td:2axbf3f2][td:2axbf3f2]11[/td:2axbf3f2][td:2axbf3f2]3[/td:2axbf3f2][/tr:2axbf3f2][/table:2axbf3f2]

[Benjamin Grimm]

The Mets beat the Yankees tonight, and the Marlins gave the Nationals a good fight, but the Nationals prevailed. So what could have been a great day is, instead, merely a very very good day. The division lead holds at 8 games. The magic number is reduced from 9 to 8. And the NHOP drops by 14 points, from .281 to .267.

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423
August 28	71-57	64-63	6.5	29	69	0.420
August 29	71-58	65-63	5.5	29	67	0.433
August 30	72-58	66-63	5.5	28	65	0.431
August 31	73-58	66-64	6.5	26	63	0.413
September 1	73-59	66-65	6.5	25	61	0.410
September 2	74-59	67-65	6.5	24	59	0.407
September 3	74-59	68-65	6	24	58	0.414
September 4	74-60	69-65	5	24	56	0.429
September 5	75-60	70-65	5	23	54	0.426
September 6	75-61	71-65	4	23	52	0.442
September 7	76-61	71-66	5	21	50	0.420
September 8	77-61	71-67	6	19	48	0.396
September 9	78-61	71-68	7	17	46	0.370
September 10	79-61	71-68	7.5	16	45	0.356
September 11	80-61	71-69	8.5	14	43	0.326
September 12	81-61	71-70	9.5	12	41	0.293
September 13	82-61	72-70	9.5	11	39	0.282
September 14	83-61	73-70	9.5	10	37	0.270
September 15	83-62	74-70	8.5	10	35	0.286
September 16	83-63	75-70	7.5	10	33	0.303
September 17	83-63	75-71	8	9	32	0.281
September 18	84-63	76-71	8	8	30	0.267

Going into the weekend, Centerfield said that he'd be happy with a 7-game lead on Monday morning. Today's two games narrow the list of Monday morning possibilities:

Happy Outcomes	Monday Morning Lead	Magic Number
[crossout]0[/crossout]	[crossout]5[/crossout]	[crossout]9[/crossout]
1	6	8
2	7	7
3	8	6
4	9	5
5	10	4
[crossout]6[/crossout]	[crossout]11[/crossout]	[crossout]3[/crossout]

[Frayed Knot]

Going into the weekend, Centerfield said that he'd be happy with a 7-game lead on Monday morning. Today's two games narrow the list of Monday morning possibilities: Happy Outcomes Monday Morning Lead Magic Number [crossout]0[/crossout] [crossout]5[/crossout] [crossout]9[/crossout] 1 6 8 2 7 7 3 8 6 4 9 5 5 10 4 [crossout]6[/crossout] [crossout]11[/crossout] [crossout]3[/crossout]

The 'Happy Outcomes' column of that chart should of course read 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 rather than 1 through 5
With no DH's scheduled, it's tough to have five HO's in the next two days (no matter what she promises you) but other than that we get the picture. And now after the opening win, having only a 7 game lead at the end of business on Sunday seems like settling.


NHOP for clinching prior to the final series drops to .333 -- which means that if only 1/3 of the next 24 games (12 each) go our way the final series won't matter.
Or to look at it from a Nats perspective, they have to have 17 of the 24 games go their way and then sweep the final head to head series and even then all that would do is force a tie which would make them have to finish the season with a four-game set.

Damn, I'm starting to like our chances here!!

[Benjamin Grimm]

Frayed Knot wrote: The 'Happy Outcomes' column of that chart should of course read 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 rather than 1 through 5

No, that's correct. The column represents the total number of happy outcomes for the period from Friday through Sunday. We already have one happy outcome, and there's still the possibility of four more, which would leave us with a total of five.

[Centerfield]

I have my own personal NHOP chart! This is the best day ever!

[Benjamin Grimm]

It's a big responsibility, but I think you're ready to handle it.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yesterday: Not a good day. The Yankees beat the Mets and the Nationals, who have won 6 of their last 7, defeated the Marlins. The NL East lead drops from 8 to 7. The magic number holds at 8. And the NHOP rises from .267 to .286.

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423
August 28	71-57	64-63	6.5	29	69	0.420
August 29	71-58	65-63	5.5	29	67	0.433
August 30	72-58	66-63	5.5	28	65	0.431
August 31	73-58	66-64	6.5	26	63	0.413
September 1	73-59	66-65	6.5	25	61	0.410
September 2	74-59	67-65	6.5	24	59	0.407
September 3	74-59	68-65	6	24	58	0.414
September 4	74-60	69-65	5	24	56	0.429
September 5	75-60	70-65	5	23	54	0.426
September 6	75-61	71-65	4	23	52	0.442
September 7	76-61	71-66	5	21	50	0.420
September 8	77-61	71-67	6	19	48	0.396
September 9	78-61	71-68	7	17	46	0.370
September 10	79-61	71-68	7.5	16	45	0.356
September 11	80-61	71-69	8.5	14	43	0.326
September 12	81-61	71-70	9.5	12	41	0.293
September 13	82-61	72-70	9.5	11	39	0.282
September 14	83-61	73-70	9.5	10	37	0.270
September 15	83-62	74-70	8.5	10	35	0.286
September 16	83-63	75-70	7.5	10	33	0.303
September 17	83-63	75-71	8	9	32	0.281
September 18	84-63	76-71	8	8	30	0.267
September 19	84-64	77-71	7	8	28	0.286

Going into the weekend, Centerfield said that he'd be happy with a 7-game lead on Monday morning. The possibilities are now reduced to three: Tomorrow morning the lead will either be 6, 7, or 8 games.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Nothing good to report today, I'm afraid. Yesterday was our second consecutive bad day, with the Mets losing and the Nationals winning. Washington has now won seven of their last eight, and the Mets lead has narrowed to 6 games. The magic number hasn't budged since Friday, remaining at 8. The NHOP rises for the second consecutive day, going from .286 to .308. The NHOP for clinching before Washington comes to town on October 2 is .400.

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423
August 28	71-57	64-63	6.5	29	69	0.420
August 29	71-58	65-63	5.5	29	67	0.433
August 30	72-58	66-63	5.5	28	65	0.431
August 31	73-58	66-64	6.5	26	63	0.413
September 1	73-59	66-65	6.5	25	61	0.410
September 2	74-59	67-65	6.5	24	59	0.407
September 3	74-59	68-65	6	24	58	0.414
September 4	74-60	69-65	5	24	56	0.429
September 5	75-60	70-65	5	23	54	0.426
September 6	75-61	71-65	4	23	52	0.442
September 7	76-61	71-66	5	21	50	0.420
September 8	77-61	71-67	6	19	48	0.396
September 9	78-61	71-68	7	17	46	0.370
September 10	79-61	71-68	7.5	16	45	0.356
September 11	80-61	71-69	8.5	14	43	0.326
September 12	81-61	71-70	9.5	12	41	0.293
September 13	82-61	72-70	9.5	11	39	0.282
September 14	83-61	73-70	9.5	10	37	0.270
September 15	83-62	74-70	8.5	10	35	0.286
September 16	83-63	75-70	7.5	10	33	0.303
September 17	83-63	75-71	8	9	32	0.281
September 18	84-63	76-71	8	8	30	0.267
September 19	84-64	77-71	7	8	28	0.286
September 20	84-65	78-71	6	8	26	0.308

Remaining schedule for Mets and Nationals:

	Mets	Nationals
September 21	Atlanta	Baltimore
September 22	Atlanta	Baltimore
September 23	Atlanta	Baltimore
September 24	At Cincinnati
September 25	At Cincinnati	Philadelphia
September 26	At Cincinnati	Philadelphia
September 27	At Cincinnati	Philadelphia
September 28		Cincinnati
September 29	At Philadelphia	At Atlanta
September 30	At Philadelphia	At Atlanta
October 1	At Philadelphia	At Atlanta
October 2	Washington	At Mets
October 3	Washington	At Mets
October 4	Washington	At Mets

[Centerfield]

10 games coming up against shitty teams. Stop fucking around. 8 in a row and put this damn thing to bed.

[Edgy MD]

Needing eight in a row to put it to bed would be remarkable, as it would indicate Washington has won eight in a row also.

[Centerfield]

Just taking the Nats out of the equation. I want 8 in a row and if we clinch earlier, great.

"I don't give a *$#%! what Washington is doing. We just have to win games."
CF - 9.21.15

"But I wouldn't mind terribly if Washington went on a losing streak of their own."

[Frayed Knot]

Our NHOP for clinching prior to the final series is up to .400 -- aka: 8 of the 20 games prior to the final weekend need to go our way in order to make that series meaningless.