Return of the NHOP

Edgy MD · September 1, 2015

Clinching Labor Day has its appeal, as does a .413.

Benjamin Grimm · September 1, 2015

According to Baseball Prospectus, the Mets odds to win the division are now at 93.5 per cent, and their wild card odds have increased to 0.4 per cent. Odds to win the World Series are at 9.3 per cent.

Baseball Prospectus World Championship odds for current first-place teams:

Dodgers 16.1%
Blue Jays 15.6%
Astros 14.8%
Cardinals 11.0%
Mets 9.3%
Royals 9.3%

In the race for home field advantage in the NLDS (if the matchups remain as they currently are) the Mets are a half game behind the Dodgers. (Mets are 73-58, Dodgers are 73-57.)

NL East Tragic Numbers update: Phillies 10, Marlins 11, Braves 13, Nationals 26.

(EDITED TO FIX PHILLIES TRAGIC NUMBER)

Ceetar · September 1, 2015

Benjamin Grimm wrote:

NL East Tragic Numbers update: Phillies 9, Marlins 11, Braves 13, Nationals 26.

Phillies are 10 for the Division, 9 for the WC I believe. Phillies are leading the race to be eliminated from Postseason play.

Benjamin Grimm · September 1, 2015

You're right. Phillies tragic number has been corrected. Thanks!

Benjamin Grimm · September 2, 2015

Yesterday was a bad day for the Mets on the field, but a worse day for the Nationals, which, on balance, makes it a good day for the Mets. We're one day closer to the end of the season, and the Mets maintained their 6.5-game lead, reducing the magic number from 26 to 25, and the NHOP from .413 to .410.

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423
August 28	71-57	64-63	6.5	29	69	0.420
August 29	71-58	65-63	5.5	29	67	0.433
August 30	72-58	66-63	5.5	28	65	0.431
August 31	73-58	66-64	6.5	26	63	0.413
September 1	73-59	66-65	6.5	25	61	0.410

batmagadanleadoff · September 2, 2015

NHOP does a terrific job of tracking or correlating to Baseball Prospectus's playoffs odds. The correlation is extremely strong (I've been following this for the last week, week and a half). It's an inverse correlation, as it should be -- as NHOP goes down, the odds for the Mets to win their division increases.

But while NHOP was reduced yesterday, given the Nats loss, BP lowered its Mets division odds from 93.5% to 92.6%. I'm not sure why -- intuitively, I'd assume that at this late stage in the season, the Mets division odds should increase on any day that the magic number is reduced. I suppose that BP factors in trends, perhaps giving some extra weight to the team's most recent performance -- here, the Mets lost three out of their last five. But on the other hand, the Nats haven't been able to gain a single half game standings-wise over that span. So go figure.

Benjamin Grimm · September 2, 2015

Maybe because yesterday the Nationals lost a game that they had been expected to lose, but the Mets lost a game they had been expected to win?

Just guessing here...

Ceetar · September 2, 2015

Benjamin Grimm wrote:
Maybe because yesterday the Nationals lost a game that they had been expected to lose, but the Mets lost a game they had been expected to win?

Just guessing here...

yeah, that's probably it. lead didn't change but Nationals strength of schedule dropped and Mets got more difficult.

batmagadanleadoff · September 2, 2015

Benjamin Grimm wrote:
Maybe because yesterday the Nationals lost a game that they had been expected to lose, but the Mets lost a game they had been expected to win?

Just guessing here...

It's as good a guess as anything I considered. Obviously, NHOP and magic number calculations are simple and straightforward, treating every game played equally, while BP's playoffs odds formula is a complex algorithm made up of many variables.

Frayed Knot · September 2, 2015

The part of BP's numbers that I'm not getting is their WS odds. Not bitching about it or anything, just wondering how they came up with them.
The randomness of post-season outcomes, particularly before you even know the match-ups, seems to not lend itself to this kind of analysis and it's odd that the best teams in each league sit and 4th & 6th best chances in their view only somewhat better than half of the most likely winners.

Benjamin Grimm · September 2, 2015

That struck me as odd as well. I'm guessing that they don't think the Royals match up well against the Blue Jays, or the Cardinals against the Dodgers. Each team has very high odds (close to 100 per cent) of making the playoffs so their current division leads won't be a factor in how they'd perform in the postseason series.

Ceetar · September 2, 2015

They absolutely use player projection systems so the varied ranking of teams is at least partially on what THEY think are the best teams, not necessarily what the record is.

Benjamin Grimm · September 3, 2015

Yesterday the Mets and Nationals both won. The magic number drops by one, to 24. The NHOP declines as well, from .410 to .407, a new season low.

Today the Mets are idle while the Nationals play the Braves. The magic number may or may not change, but the NHOP will.

When the Mets wake up in Washington on Wednesday, September 9, the day of the final game of the three-game series against the Nationals, they will be in first place.

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423
August 28	71-57	64-63	6.5	29	69	0.420
August 29	71-58	65-63	5.5	29	67	0.433
August 30	72-58	66-63	5.5	28	65	0.431
August 31	73-58	66-64	6.5	26	63	0.413
September 1	73-59	66-65	6.5	25	61	0.410
September 2	74-59	67-65	6.5	24	59	0.407

Centerfield · September 3, 2015

I have to think our NHOP will rise today. Braves can't beat anyone.

Benjamin Grimm · September 3, 2015

From Baseball Prospectus: The Mets odds to win the division have declined a bit. It's currently 92.8% for the NL East and up to 0.5% for the wild card. World Series odds have increased to 9.4%, still the lowest of any division leader. Royals have gone up to 10.2%, Dodgers are way up at 17.2%.

Tragic Number updates: Phillies 8, Marlins 10, Braves 10, Nationals 24.

Benjamin Grimm · September 4, 2015

The Mets were idle yesterday, and Washington beat Atlanta, so the NHOP rises. Had the Nationals lost, the NHOP would have dropped below .400 for the first time.

Oh well.

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423
August 28	71-57	64-63	6.5	29	69	0.420
August 29	71-58	65-63	5.5	29	67	0.433
August 30	72-58	66-63	5.5	28	65	0.431
August 31	73-58	66-64	6.5	26	63	0.413
September 1	73-59	66-65	6.5	25	61	0.410
September 2	74-59	67-65	6.5	24	59	0.407
September 3	74-59	68-65	6	24	58	0.414

Edgy MD · September 4, 2015

That's OK, just... well... it's not a good day for Tom Koehler to end his funk.

Benjamin Grimm · September 5, 2015

A very bad day yesterday. There is no joy in updating this chart this morning. Mets lose a walkoff in Miami and the Nationals win a walkoff at home against the Braves. Magic number remains at 24, the division lead drops to 5 games, and the NHOP rises to .429.

The Nationals have now won three in a row. With the Mets set to arrive in Washington the day after tomorrow, this could be a very dangerous time for the Nationals to be gaining momentum.

Fasten your seatbelts!

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423
August 28	71-57	64-63	6.5	29	69	0.420
August 29	71-58	65-63	5.5	29	67	0.433
August 30	72-58	66-63	5.5	28	65	0.431
August 31	73-58	66-64	6.5	26	63	0.413
September 1	73-59	66-65	6.5	25	61	0.410
September 2	74-59	67-65	6.5	24	59	0.407
September 3	74-59	68-65	6	24	58	0.414
September 4	74-60	69-65	5	24	56	0.429

Benjamin Grimm · September 6, 2015

Well, the Mets didn't immediately reverse Friday night's setback, but Saturday was a good day. Mets won, reducing the magic number to 23 and the NHOP to .426. The Mets can at least be assured of still being in first place when their upcoming three-game series in Washington has concluded. Let's see what today brings. The Mets will open their series in DC with a lead of either 4, 5, or 6 games. If it's 6, I can see being content with just winning one of three games. If it's 4, then taking two of three will be imperative.

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423
August 28	71-57	64-63	6.5	29	69	0.420
August 29	71-58	65-63	5.5	29	67	0.433
August 30	72-58	66-63	5.5	28	65	0.431
August 31	73-58	66-64	6.5	26	63	0.413
September 1	73-59	66-65	6.5	25	61	0.410
September 2	74-59	67-65	6.5	24	59	0.407
September 3	74-59	68-65	6	24	58	0.414
September 4	74-60	69-65	5	24	56	0.429
September 5	75-60	70-65	5	23	54	0.426

Benjamin Grimm · September 7, 2015

Yesterday was another very bad day. The lead drops to 4 games and the NHOP rises to .442.

After this three-game series with the Nationals ends, the Mets will still be in first place, but by how wide a margin? It will either be 1 game, 3 games, 5 games, or 7 games. In other words, the Mets will have to sweep the Nationals to get their lead back to (roughly) where it was five days ago.

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423
August 28	71-57	64-63	6.5	29	69	0.420
August 29	71-58	65-63	5.5	29	67	0.433
August 30	72-58	66-63	5.5	28	65	0.431
August 31	73-58	66-64	6.5	26	63	0.413
September 1	73-59	66-65	6.5	25	61	0.410
September 2	74-59	67-65	6.5	24	59	0.407
September 3	74-59	68-65	6	24	58	0.414
September 4	74-60	69-65	5	24	56	0.429
September 5	75-60	70-65	5	23	54	0.426
September 6	75-61	71-65	4	23	52	0.442

Benjamin Grimm · September 8, 2015

A very bad Sunday is followed up by a very good Monday, as the Mets draw first blood in their three-game series in DC. Getting swept would have been very very bad, and eliminating that possibility in the very first game was huge.

The magic number drops from 23 to 21. The NHOP drops by 22 points, from .442 to .420. The Mets will still be in first place on the morning of Saturday, September 12.

Before Monday's win, Baseball Prospectus had the Mets at 84.5% to win the division and 0.3% for the wild card. We'll see later today how much the win over the Nationals improved those odds.

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423
August 28	71-57	64-63	6.5	29	69	0.420
August 29	71-58	65-63	5.5	29	67	0.433
August 30	72-58	66-63	5.5	28	65	0.431
August 31	73-58	66-64	6.5	26	63	0.413
September 1	73-59	66-65	6.5	25	61	0.410
September 2	74-59	67-65	6.5	24	59	0.407
September 3	74-59	68-65	6	24	58	0.414
September 4	74-60	69-65	5	24	56	0.429
September 5	75-60	70-65	5	23	54	0.426
September 6	75-61	71-65	4	23	52	0.442
September 7	76-61	71-66	5	21	50	0.420

Edgy MD · September 8, 2015

A 22-point decline is a season high.

Benjamin Grimm · September 8, 2015

As the denominator (number of games remaining) continues to decline, the NHOP will have larger and larger fluctuations.

Benjamin Grimm · September 8, 2015

With today's update from Baseball Prospectus, the Mets odds for the NL East are now at 90.3%, and 0.1% for the wild card. They're at 9.4% to win the World Series.

World Championship odds for current division leaders. The Mets have somehow moved ahead of both Missouri teams.

Dodgers 18.5%
Blue Jays 15.6%
Astros 14.0%
Mets 9.4%
Cardinals 9.3%
Royals 9.2%

NL East Tragic Number update: Phillies 2, Braves 4, Marlins 6, Nationals 21.

Edgy MD · September 8, 2015

I don't get how the Cards have won five-10 games more than any of the other leaders, yet the oddsmakers are so bearish.

HahnSolo · September 8, 2015

Maybe because they'd potentially get the next toughest NL team (by record) in the best-of-5 series?

Frayed Knot · September 8, 2015

Benjamin Grimm wrote:
With today's update from Baseball Prospectus, the Mets odds for the NL East are now at 90.3%, and 0.1% for the wild card. They're at 9.4% to win the World Series.

I saw something from ESPN that had the NL East at more like 85%/15% ... but various mileage may vary in its variations.

Benjamin Grimm · September 8, 2015

Upcoming schedule for Mets and Nationals:

	Mets	Nationals
September 8	At Washington	Mets
September 9	At Washington	Mets
September 10	At Atlanta
September 11	At Atlanta	At Miami
September 12	At Atlanta	At Miami
September 13	At Atlanta	At Miami
September 14	Miami	At Philadelphia
September 15	Miami	At Philadelphia
September 16	Miami	At Philadelphia
September 17		Miami
September 18	New York (AL)	Miami
September 19	New York (AL)	Miami
September 20	New York (AL)	Miami
September 21	Atlanta	Baltimore
September 22	Atlanta	Baltimore
September 23	Atlanta	Baltimore
September 24	At Cincinnati
September 25	At Cincinnati	Philadelphia
September 26	At Cincinnati	Philadelphia
September 27	At Cincinnati	Philadelphia
September 28		Cincinnati
September 29	At Philadelphia	At Atlanta
September 30	At Philadelphia	At Atlanta
October 1	At Philadelphia	At Atlanta
October 2	Washington	At Mets
October 3	Washington	At Mets
October 4	Washington	At Mets

Frayed Knot · September 8, 2015

Damn, I was so focused on this series I forgot about the last one with the Nats. I mean I knew that we HAD one more series with them, I had just somehow forgotten that it was the final three days.
That it is the final weekend makes things both better and worse. Better in that it's easier to put the title out of reach before ever reaching that point, if for no other reason than they can't have a say in it beyond tomorrow. But if the race is within three games then it's essentially like having three extra post-season games tacked on.

Edited September 8, 2015 by Guest

Ceetar · September 8, 2015

the worst would be for them to hit that series 3up. So close yet technically still disastrous.

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