Return of the NHOP

[Benjamin Grimm]

I remember back in the last decade, when the Mets were last contending for the playoffs, I created a metric called NHOP. (Necessary Happy Outcome Percentage) The NHOP in effect combines the magic number with the number of games remaining, but unlike the magic number, it can go up or down but as with the magic number, the lower the number is, the better. For our purposes, of course, a "happy outcome" is either a Mets win or a Washington loss. As of right now, the Mets and Nationals have a combined 82 games remaining, and we need a happy outcome in 37 (the current magic number) of those games. The current NHOP is, therefore, 0.451 which means that if 45.1 per cent of the games go the right way, the Mets win the division. (Or at least, finish ahead of the Nationals which probably means the same thing.)

I backtracked a bit, and this chart shows how the magic number, and the NHOP, have been changing over the last few weeks.

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451

[TransMonk]

I welcome the return of this metric!

[Benjamin Grimm]

The original NHOP thread. I hope it turns out better this time around!

[Benjamin Grimm]

Mets and Nationals both win. Magic number drops by one, from 37 to 36. NHOP drops too, but only slightly, from .451 to .450.

Any day the magic number drops is a good day!

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450

[Benjamin Grimm]

Baseball Prospectus odds have improved a little bit. NL East title goes from 85.5% to 85.9%, which makes sense. We're a day closer to the end of the season, and the Nationals failed to gain any ground. The Wild Card odds also increased, from 0.2% to 0.3%. That seems a little counter-intuitive, since both the Cubs and Pirates won yesterday, so it should therefore be a little bit harder for the Mets to finish with a better record than one or both of those teams.

It also occurred to me that the NHOP numbers above may not be as accurate as they should be. There aren't 80 combined games remaining, because the Mets and Nationals will be playing each other six times in September. That means that the number of games is actually 74, and the numbers will have to be adjusted accordingly.

Those six games are also the reason why we shouldn't get overly optimistic yet, because they give the Nationals a real opportunity to turn things around. That's what happened in 2007. The Mets had a four-game series in Philadelphia that started on August 27, and another three-game series at Shea against the Phillies that started on September 14. If the Mets had just won one of those seven games, things would have been very different, but of course, the Phillies won all seven. Fortunately, the two remaining series against Washington are three weeks apart, so if the Mets have a cold streak or the Nationals have a hot streak, it will hopefully encompass only one of those series, but make no mistake, danger is still lurking. The Mets will be in Washington on September 7, 8, and 9. We'll have a better sense of the challenges ahead once that series has ended.

[Frayed Knot]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: It also occurred to me that the NHOP numbers above may not be as accurate as they should be. There aren't 80 combined games remaining, because the Mets and Nationals will be playing each other six times in September. That means that the number of games is actually 74, and the numbers will have to be adjusted accordingly.

It's essentially like there are 80 games remaining -- 34 Nats game + 34 Mets games + 6 head-to-head match-ups, but those six games automatically count double so I don't think it'll change your odds.
All it means is that there'll be six days which are guaranteed to wind up as either a 'Double-Happiness' or 'Double-Sadness' result with no possibility of splitting the baby.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Another good, but not great, day. The Mets win today over the Rockies drops the magic number to 35, with 39 games to play. Because of the Nationals win, the NHOP drops only slightly, from .450 to .449. As the number of remaining games continues to drop, we should start seeing more fluctuation in the NHOP, for better or worse.

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449

[Benjamin Grimm]

Since the Nationals were idle, and unable to counter with a win of their own, yesterday's Mets win has a bigger impact on the NHOP, which drops from 0.449 to 0.442. The magic number is now 34. The Mets have 38 games remaining and the Nationals have 39.

Baseball Prospectus hasn't updated their odds yet this morning to reflect yesterday's games. I'll have to check in again later.

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442

[Benjamin Grimm]

Baseball Prospectus odds update: Mets are now 88.2% to win the division, 0.2% to win one of the two wild card spots. Their chances of winning the World Series are at 9.2%. There are currently seven first-place teams (because of a tie in the AL East) and here are the World Series odds for all seven teams:

Blue Jays 13.8%
Dodgers 13.4%
Astros 13.2%
Cardinals 10.2%
Royals 10.1%
METS 9.2%
Yankees 8.5%

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Baseball Prospectus odds update: Mets are now 88.2% to win the division, 0.2% to win one of the two wild card spots. Their chances of winning the World Series are at 9.2%. There are currently seven first-place teams (because of a tie in the AL East) and here are the World Series odds for all seven teams: Blue Jays 13.8% Dodgers 13.4% Astros 13.2% Cardinals 10.2% Royals 10.1% METS 9.2% Yankees 8.5%

decent percent jump. A lot of that has to be Wright on the roster. #Captain.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yesterday the Mets won and the Nationals kept pace. The division lead remains at 5.5 games, one day closer to the end of the season. Magic number drops from 34 to 33. NHOP drops from .442 to .440.

Baseball Prospectus increases the Mets division odds slightly, up to 88.8 per cent. Wild card odds remain at 0.2 per cent. World Championship odds drop from 9.2 per cent to 8.8 per cent.

Mets ranking among first-place teams:

Dodgers 14.8%
Astros 14.5%
Blue Jays 14.4%
Cardinals 10.4%
Royals 10.0%
METS 8.8%

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yesterday was a very good day in the quest for the division title. Mets beat the Phillies, Nationals lose to the Padres. The magic number drops from 33 to 31, and the NHOP drops from .440 to .425.

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425

[Benjamin Grimm]

Baseball Prospectus: Mets odds to win the division has jumped to 92.9%, wild card odds drop to 0.1%.

Mets ranking among first-place teams, odds for winning World Series:

Astros 15.5%
Blue Jays 15.2%
Dodgers 14.9%
Cardinals 10.5%
Royals 9.5%
METS 9.2%

[Benjamin Grimm]

Oh, and the Mets are now guaranteed to wake up in first place on September 2. The goal, of course, is to push that to October 4.

[Frayed Knot]

NHOP deserves wider exposure.

[dgwphotography]

the return of NHOP makes me nervous...

[batmagadanleadoff]

I love this stat. I don't remember it from the first time around.

[Frayed Knot]

A goofy thought about being 6.5 games up.
With just six games remaining between the two teams, the Nats now officially need help to win the division. Even if they were to run the table for the remainder of the season -- which by definition would mean we lose six times -- they still would need us to lose at least once more. Of course the fact that that's happening as I type pretty much makes this sentiment moot (as if it wasn't already).

[Edgy MD]

No, it ain't moot until the last out, says d'Arnaud and Cespedes and Johnson.

[Benjamin Grimm]

The Mets and Nationals both won yesterday, which means that the NHOP has a more modest decline than it did the day before, dropping from .425 to .423. The magic number decreases from 31 to 30. The Mets can now be sure that they'll wake up on the morning of September 3 in first place. That date, by the way, is the next scheduled date when the Mets are off and the Nationals are not. Barring rainouts, of course, next Thursday the Nationals will be caught up with the Mets in the number of games played, but hopefully well behind them in the number of games won. It's at that point that the ".5" will disappear from the games behind column in the standings.

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423

[batmagadanleadoff]

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423

Here's another amazing thing about this Mets run -- over the past almost an entire month now --- there have been only three days (August 6, 8 and 19) when the Nats gained ground on the Mets (see chart, above -- "Mets Lead" column). The Nats haven't been able to gain as much as half a game on the Mets, now, in almost a week and a half.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Latest from Baseball Prospectus: Mets odds to win the NL East go from 92.9% to 93.1%. Odds for the wild card are 0.2%. Odds to win the World Series edge upwards a little, from 9.2% to 9.5%

Odds to win World Series
Astros 15.3%
Dodgers 14.9%
Blue Jays 14.6%
Cardinals 10.7%
Royals 9.8%
METS 9.5%

[Benjamin Grimm]

The Mets lost yesterday, but still on balance a good day, because the Nationals lost too, which reduces the magic number from 30 to 29, and the NHOP from .423 to .420. The Mets will be in first place when the sun rises on Friday, September 4.

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423
August 28	71-57	64-63	6.5	29	69	0.420

[Edgy MD]

I appreciate a fine new metric, but this thread keeps making me want pancakes.

[Frayed Knot]

Especially once President Trump kicks out all the immigrant workers and they're forced to re-name the place the [u:1zb2yxco]National[/u:1zb2yxco] House of Pancakes.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Today was our first bad day in a while. Mets lose, Nationals defeat that drooling simpleton Tom Koehler and the division lead drops back to 5.5 games. Magic number remains at 29, NHOP spikes from .420 to .433.

A Mets win and a Washington loss on Sunday would undo today's setback. Let's make it happen!

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423
August 28	71-57	64-63	6.5	29	69	0.420
August 29	71-58	65-63	5.5	29	67	0.433

[Edgy MD]

It's the drooling. What drives me crazy about Koehler is the drooling. You grew up in New Rochelle, man, act like somebody who's been let out of the house on occasion.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Sunday was a good day, in that the Mets won and dropped the magic number from 29 to 28, and the NHOP declined slightly from .433 to .431. Because the Nationals won, the Mets weren't able to reverse the setback of the previous day. But maybe they'll be able to do that tonight. The Mets will be hosting the Phillies and the Nationals will be in St. Louis to play the Cardinals.

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423
August 28	71-57	64-63	6.5	29	69	0.420
August 29	71-58	65-63	5.5	29	67	0.433
August 30	72-58	66-63	5.5	28	65	0.431

[Benjamin Grimm]

Baseball Prospectus odds update: Mets at 90.5 per cent to win the division, 0.3 per cent for the Wild Card, 9.2 per cent for the World Championship.

Tragic Numbers: Phillies 12. Marlins 12. Braves 15. Nationals 28.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yesterday was a very good day, with the Mets winning and Washington losing, effectively reversing the setback that occurred on Saturday. The magic number drops from 28 to 26, and the NHOP makes its steepest decline of the year so far, dropping from .431 to .413, a season low.

Also, the Mets are now guaranteed to be in first place when they arrive in Washington on Labor Day.

Date	Mets Record	Nationals Record	Mets Lead	Magic Number	Games Remaining	NHOP
August 3	56-50	54-50	1	57	114	0.500
August 4	57-50	55-50	1	56	112	0.500
August 5	58-50	55-51	2	54	110	0.491
August 6	58-50	56-51	1.5	54	109	0.495
August 7	59-50	56-52	2.5	52	107	0.486
August 8	59-51	57-52	1.5	52	105	0.495
August 9	59-52	57-53	1.5	51	103	0.495
August 10	60-52	58-53	1.5	50	101	0.495
August 11	61-52	58-54	2.5	48	99	0.485
August 12	62-52	58-55	3.5	46	97	0.474
August 13	63-52	58-56	4.5	44	95	0.463
August 14	63-53	58-57	4.5	43	93	0.462
August 15	63-54	58-58	4.5	42	91	0.462
August 16	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 17	63-55	58-59	4.5	41	89	0.461
August 18	64-55	59-59	4.5	40	87	0.460
August 19	64-56	60-59	3.5	40	85	0.471
August 20	64-56	60-60	4	39	84	0.464
August 21	65-56	60-61	5	37	82	0.451
August 22	66-56	61-61	5	36	80	0.450
August 23	67-56	62-61	5	35	78	0.449
August 24	68-56	62-61	5.5	34	77	0.442
August 25	69-56	63-61	5.5	33	75	0.440
August 26	70-56	63-62	6.5	31	73	0.425
August 27	71-56	64-62	6.5	30	71	0.423
August 28	71-57	64-63	6.5	29	69	0.420
August 29	71-58	65-63	5.5	29	67	0.433
August 30	72-58	66-63	5.5	28	65	0.431
August 31	73-58	66-64	6.5	26	63	0.413