Forecasts for Fifteen: Wilmer Flores

[Edgy MD]

Here we get to a guy who has not yet opened the season as a starter, and yet despite that (or more likely because of that), has grown into one of the most divisive figures in contemporary Mets history.

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Time for you to get your money on the table. When we wanna watch Wilmer, which Wilmer will we watch?

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think I'm rooting harder for Wilmer than for any other Met this season. He's a young guy being thrust into a very difficult situation: he's the "not Troy Tulowitski and not Ian Desmond". If he doesn't get off to a decent start, the boos will rain down on him. (Entirely unfairly, of course.)

I think he has the talent to do a decent job in the field, and a good job with the bat. What I don't know is how he'll withstand the pressure of this current situation. My guess: he'll be solid but not spectacular, and will keep the shortstop job all year. .260, 11 homers.

[Edgy MD]

I don't think there's any reason he can't be Ian Desmond.

I think the fan base may have an outsized notion of what Ian Desmond is based simply on the notion that they were denied Ian Desmond.

He's just Ian Desmond.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I have to confess that I don't much of anything about Ian Desmond other than his name and the team he plays for. If you think Wilmer can be just as good, or better, than Desmond then I have no dispute with that.

[MFS62]

.285-17-85, with a marginally Plus dWAR.
And by mid year, some NY writer will admit that his defense is better than the last few years of Derek.
And I will gladly cut that article out of the paper and staple it to the forehead of that very annoying YLDB (I guess that was redundant) in my office.

Later

[Guest themetfairy]

How do you not love this guy?

[smg58]

He'll put up numbers a lot like the .289/.332/.403 that Murphy put up last year. And like Murphy, he'll be below average defensively for his position but not brutally so.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'm with Grimminator on my support of Flores. I guess on some level I am rooting for him because I want the Mets to be right.

I mean I know they have a limited budget for SS. I also know they do a lot of work analyzing players and studying the possibilities.

They're threadbare but they're not stupid. The front office anyway.

140 games, 600 PA 18-65 .280/.331/.443//.774

[Theoldmole]

Hits .280. drives in 50 runs, makes the routine plays at shortstop and every now and then surprises you by turning a nifty DP, ends up with a solidly positive WAR.

I believe that the Mets' choice not to go for another shortstop was not based on can't afford, but no better options without sacrificing too much.

[Edgy MD]

Fifty RBI will surely be disappointing with the 23 homers he's gonna hit.

[Theoldmole]

You're right. 80 RBIs.

[Lefty Specialist]

Kid has been busting his ass to get ready for this year and I'm betting he'll be a pleasant surprise. He'll probably be batting 8th at the start of the season, but that won't last long.

17/70/.275. He's no Reyes, but he'll make the routine plays.

[nymr83]

smg58 wrote: He'll put up numbers a lot like the .289/.332/.403 that Murphy put up last year. And like Murphy, he'll be below average defensively for his position but not brutally so.

This is pretty much what I expect as well.

[ashie62]

27 HR 91 RBI .285 SILVER SLUGGER AWARD and a few MVP votes.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Edgy MD wrote: I don't think there's any reason he can't be Ian Desmond. I think the fan base may have an outsized notion of what Ian Desmond is based simply on the notion that they were denied Ian Desmond. He's just Ian Desmond.

Okay, sure, Ian Desmond, minus the defense and some flies/plus some liners:

141 G, 599 PAs, 68 R, 17 HR, 75 RBI, .287/.321/.430, 44 XBH

[Edgy MD]

Defense, shmeefense. He may or may not stack up to Ian Desmond as a defender, but Desmond ain't so smoking' out there himself.

Just hit, baby.

[Frayed Knot]

We're talking about two players who look pretty dis-similar at the outset even if both are, at the moment anyway, NL East shortstops.

Desmond's averaged 58 XBHs/Yr over the last three seasons and my first thought is that if Wilmer could pull off 2/3 of that I'd be pretty happy.
But (with all small sample warning applying here) the XBH output is already closer than I would have thought. Project Wilmer's 2014 XBH rate to 600 PAs and you get 43.7, already more than 3/4 of the way to Desmond's 56.4/yr rate over the last three seasons (and closer still if just 2014 is counted). Add in that those stats are for Flores's age 22 season (he turned 23 in August) where at the same age Desmond had yet to take his first big league AB.
Both are also aggressive swing guys who don't walk a lot.

Pretty different defensively with neither likely to win a Gold Glove anytime in the near future. Desmond is more athletic and will make the spectacular play more often while tending to be more erratic on the easier ones (early in his career particularly - less so now). Wilmer (again the briefer glimpse thing) seems steadier and less likely to be the type to fumble the routine plays. Desmond has the stronger arm, not sure about accuracy at this point. Clear edge to Desmond on the running game as he's been a 20+ steal/yr man with a success rate of 77%.

[Ceetar]

.265/.305/.400 Which is certainly acceptable for a SS, even the bad one he'll be. Plays 121 games but only 90 9th innings.

Will be the guy that gets the go-ahead HR in the division clinching game.

[Vic Sage]

.265/ 20 hr /30 2b/60 rbi
.300/.450 = .750 ops

Lack of range compensated for by steady play, good arm, and proper positioning. Eventually gets pushed to 2b by Rosario (in 2 years) and becomes a perennial silver slugger 2bman and becomes the Jeff Kent that Jeff Kent could have been here.

[nymr83]

Rosario may be further than that and Dilson Herrera may have already dug his heels in at 2B by then, ain't it great to have options?

[Guest d'Kong76]

Pleasant surprise in 2015, despite all the off-season grumbling.

[Edgy MD]

Your 2015 Mets home run co-leader.

[ashie62]

Ashie62 wrote: 27 HR 91 RBI .285 SILVER SLUGGER AWARD and a few MVP votes.

Ya Gotta Believe!

[ashie62]

Ashie62 wrote: 27 HR 91 RBI .285 SILVER SLUGGER AWARD and a few MVP votes.

I stand by this.

[ashie62]

Ashie62 wrote: 27 HR 91 RBI .285 SILVER SLUGGER AWARD and a few MVP votes.

On track.