Prospect Porn, 2015

[Edgy MD]

MLB.com has Noah Syndegaard as the #2 right-hand pitching prospect... in all of beisbol.

[Edgy MD]

And Matz the #8 left-handed pitching prospect.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2015/#list=lhp

[Frayed Knot]

Kevin Plawecki = #6 catcher

[A Boy Named Seo]

Anyone else a little surprised that Noah is #2?

[Frayed Knot]

A Boy Named Seo wrote: Anyone else a little surprised that Noah is #2?

As in "only" #2?
Nah. Lucas Giolito, the guy ahead of him on that list, was going to be the #1 overall draft pick the year he came out until arm problems got in the way. The Nationals were gutsy enough to take him with their first pick (16th overall - 2012) and he almost immediately required TJ surgery (they did the same thing again this year). But he's bounced back very well from it and is considered to have a higher ceiling than Syndergaard even though Thor is closer to ready compared to the guy who hasn't reached High-A ball yet.
Those kinds of calls where you're comparing someone with a higher projection vs the one who's passed all the hurdles already are pretty much a toss-up.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I would imagine that the slightly-lower-ceiling would be more than made up for by the closeness to the majors/lack of arm issues thus far, but hey, YMMV.

This system of ours tightens one's pants a bit, doesn't it?

[Edgy MD]

Dominic Smith (first last year) is listed fourth among first basemen.

Do you think Dilson has graduated or can we hope for him to represent our second basemen and keep the winning streak alive?

'Cuz I dinna think L.J. Mazzilli is going to make it.

[Frayed Knot]

Kind of surprised that Smith remained that high with just 1 HR in 400+ ABs at a lower level league - even if he's still young for that level and playing in a home park w/a rep for killing lefty hitting.

Dilson, at just 59 ML ABs, should be in the prospect mix for the 2Bers

[Edgy MD]

Strikes me as a little bit of self-coverage, as well as self-reference. They had Smith at the top of the list last year, so they can't knock him off completely despite his punchless 2014. They have to remain at least a little bullish, lest they undermine their own credibility.

Sort of like a fashion magazine. While they may be pushing a nu look this month, they can't outright call what they were pushing last month ugly.

[ashie62]

Baseball America Top 10 by organization dated 1/21

Dilson Hererra #4

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2015-top-10-prospects-index/

[MFS62]

The minor league organization had the highest winning percentage, as in #1.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2014-organization-standings/

Later

[Edgy MD]

That's key. Talented players, used to winning.

[Edgy MD]

The winning streak continues, as Dilson skids in at #4 among all second basemen.

We now turn to Jhoan Urena (or maybe Jeff McNeil?) to hold the fort amid attacks by rival third basemen.

[Frayed Knot]

One cool thing about that 2B list is that Dilson is the 3rd youngest of the ten (one is younger by just a few weeks, the other by about a year + 1/2) but the only one to reach the majors so far.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

He just skates in, based on still being RotY-eligible (just 59 PAs last year, owing to the September quad strain).

He may have the highest floor-- good field, solid-OBP starting 2B-- of any of the top half of that list, even as his presumed ceiling may be among the lowest of the top ten (likely a product of his reedlike 5'9"/150-160 lb. build).

[Frayed Knot]

Streak ends with the 3rd base crew.
Not only do we not have anyone real strong there but that's also a stacked position right now as I suspect the top three on this list will all be Top-20 prospects overall and maybe even Top-10.
There are some crazy power projections among those three.

[Edgy MD]

BOOOO!! Prospect wachers H8 the Mets!!1!1!

[Edgy MD]

Cecchini, Rosario, Reynolds, et al. fail to defend Mets honor in the shortstop category. Boooo....!

BUT... Keith F. Law ranks the minor league systems:

1. Chicago Cubs
   
2. Minnesota Twins
   
3. Houston Astros
   
4. N=#FFBF00]uy=#FFBF00]or=#FFBF00]ic=#FFBF00]an =#FFBF00]Me=#FFBF00]ts
   
5. Boston Red Sox
   ...

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

WAITWAITWAIT... are you telling me we've got some sort of shortstop deficit?

[Edgy MD]

And Law names his Hot 100.

1�16. Blah Blah Blah

17. Noah Syndergaard: ("seems like the safest bet of any of the premium pitching prospects on this list.")

18�40. Buncha shmoes.

41. Michael Conforto

42-44. Weirdoes.

45. Kevin Plawecki

45�64. Guys I frankly don't trust.

65. Dominic Smith

66�68. Wannabees

69. Amed Rosario (but somehow not one of MLB's top 10 shortstop prospects? BAH!)

70�90. Nutjobs.

91. Brandon Nimmo

92�100. Derelicts and problem children.

Notable in their absence: Matz and Herrera.

[Frayed Knot]

The absence of Matz in particular is surprising and I suspect will be the exception rather than the rule as other lists start to appear.
Jonathan Mayo/MLB.com is next up, they're releasing theirs Friday night.

[Vic Sage]

2019 LINEUP

Nimmo* [Rf]
D.Smith* [1b]
Herrera [2b]
Coforto* [Lf]
Plawecki [C]
Uhrena+ [3b]
C. Stewart [Cf]
Rosario [sS]

[u:jg17ulqz]Bench:[/u:jg17ulqz]
Wright [CI/ph]
Duda* [1b/ph]
D'Arnaud [C]
Lagares [Of]
Cecchini [MI]

[u:jg17ulqz]SP:[/u:jg17ulqz]
Syndergaard
Harvey
DeGrom
Matz*
Molina

[u:jg17ulqz]BP:[/u:jg17ulqz]
Famiglia
Leathersich*
Morris
Edgin*
Mazzoni
Fulmer
Montero

Edited January 30, 2015 by Guest

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'd be absolutely shocked if Harvey were a Met in 2019. Scott Boras will take him into free agency after 2018, and he'll be gone. I think the wise move will be to trade him after the 2016 season.

[Edgy MD]

I'd be less than shocked. I mean... somebody is gonna get paid eventually. It wouldn't be surprising if he gets a deal that pays him big in his last few years of team control and then gives them back two of his free-agency-eligible years.

I mean, he's a post-op pitcher. It wouldn't be the first time that Scott Boras steered a client into protecting his future by taking some of his paydays up front. I mean, it wouldn't be, right?

[A Boy Named Seo]

Vic Sage wrote: 2019 LINEUP Nimmo* [Rf] D.Smith* [1b] Herrera [2b] Coforto* [Lf] Plawecki [C] Uhrena+ [3b] C. Stewart [Cf] Rosario [sS] Bench: Wright [CI/ph] Duda* [1b/ph] D'Arnaud [C] Lagares [Of] Cecchini [MI] SP: Syndergaard Harvey DeGrom Matz* Molina BP: Famiglia Leathersich* Morris Edgin* Mazzoni Fulmer Montero

I can't believe we're this close to Opening Day 2k19 and effing management is seriously considering going with Uhrena at third.

[Edgy MD]

A lot of starters sliding happily over to the bench like it's the 1970s all over again.

But Laggy sliding over for Caleb Stewart? I laugh! I scoff!

[Benjamin Grimm]

Edgy MD wrote: I mean, he's a post-op pitcher. It wouldn't be the first time that Scott Boras steered a client into protecting his future by taking some of his paydays up front. I mean, it wouldn't be, right?

I honestly don't know. It would be heartening to find an example or two.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I'd be absolutely shocked if Harvey were a Met in 2019. Scott Boras will take him into free agency after 2018, and he'll be gone. I think the wise move will be to trade him after the 2016 season.

Sounds reasonable to me. Maybe that's why the Mets appear so reluctant to trade some of their surplus high-ceiling pitching right now --- because they already figure Harvey's gonna be the one to cut loose.

[A Boy Named Seo]

The 'Matt Harvey 2k15 IPP' thread is gonna be a good'n.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

My $$ on Big Fat Disappointment, emphasis on "Fat."

Lucky for us Wheeler will have a great year.