2014 Rankings Project

[Frayed Knot]

It's Ranking time!!
List your top 30 players for the 2014 season from among the 45 who appeared in a NYM uniform this past year.

Position players by AB:
GRANDERSON - MURPHY - DUDA - WRIGHT - LAGARES
d’ARNAUD - TEJADA - E. YOUNG - C. YOUNG - FLORES
CAMPBELL - RECKER - den DEKKER - ABREU - NIEUWENHUIS
HERRERA - BROWN - SATIN - CENTENO - QUINTANILLA
DAVIS - TEAGARDEN - TOVAR

Pitchers by IP:
COLON - NIESE - WHEELER - deGROM - GEE
TORRES - MEJIA - MATSUZAKA - FAMILIA - MONTERO
BLACK - CARLYLE - GERMEN - EDGIN - EVELAND
VALVERDE - FARNSWORTH - RICE - GOEDDEL - LANNAN
ALVAREZ - PARNELL

[Ceetar]

and if Papa Grande isn't #1, you're doing it wrong.

[seawolf17]

deGrom
Lagares
Duda
Murphy
Colon
Granderson
Familia
d'Arnaud
Wheeler
Wright

Niese
Mejia
Edgin
Torres
Nieuwenhuis
Flores
Campbell
Tejada
E Young
Carlyle

Gee
Matsuzaka
Herrera
Eveland
Black
Montero
Den Dekker
C Young
Recker
Farnsworth

edit: Holy crap, I forgot David Wright.

[RealityChuck]

DeGrom
Duda
Lagares
Murphy
Familia
Wheeler
Mejia
Granderson
D'Arnaud
Wright

Colon
Niese
Black
Gee
Flores
Torres
Recker
Carlyle
den Dekker
Campbell

Tejada
Nieuwenhuis
E. Young
Matsuzaka
Edgin
Everland
Herrera
Abreu
C. Young
Montero

[Gwreck]

2014 Mets with positive WAR, per Baseball-reference

Lagares 5.5
Duda 3.7
deGrom 3.5
Wright 2.8
Murphy 2.0
Niese 1.8
Nieuwenhuis 1.4
Tejada 1.4
Granderson 1.3
Familia 1.2
Young 0.9
Den Dekker 0.9
Edgin 0.9
Torres 0.9
Carlyle 0.9
Recker 0.8
Wheeler 0.7
Eveland 0.5
Gee 0.4
Black 0.4
Campbell 0.4
D'Arnaud 0.3
Matsuzaka 0.3
Farnsworth 0.2
Herrera 0.2
Davis 0.2
Flores 0.2
Goeddel 0.1

Yes, I realize that list is only 28 players.

One thing that I found curious was that Baseball-reference did not seem to combine a pitcher's "pitching WAR" and their "batting WAR." (So I went ahead and did it for them/us). Combining them results in Meija getting a zero WAR, and Colon in the negative, as you might expect: his batting seriously hurt the Mets.

[seawolf17]

Gwreck wrote: Colon in the negative, as you might expect: his batting seriously hurt the Mets.

Really? In what, sixty AB? That's surprising. His pitching wasn't that bad.

[G-Fafif]

Happened to see this on WAR in Joe Posnanski's profile of Bill James last week.

Here is Bill James on Wins Above Replacement, perhaps the hottest advanced statistic in the game right now: “Well, my math skills are limited and my data-processing skills are essentially nonexistent. The younger guys are way, way beyond me in those areas. I’m fine with that, and I don’t struggle against it, and I hope that I don’t deny them credit for what they can do that I can’t. “But because that is true, I ASSUMED that these were complex, nuanced, sophisticated systems. I never really looked; I just assumed that the details were out of my depth. But sometime in the last year I was doing some research that relied on these WAR systems, so I took a look at them, and … they’re not very impressive. They’re not well thought through; they haven’t made a convincing effort to address many of the inherent difficulties that the undertaking presents. They tend to get so far into the data, throw up their arms and make a wild guess. I don’t know if I’m going to get the time to do better of it, or if it will be left to others, but … we’re not at anything like an end point here. I assumed that these systems were a lot better than they actually are.”

Colon might be a decent example of the shortfall James senses.

[Frayed Knot]

Not to steer this thread away from the topic too far, but one problem with WAR is that it's an estimate (well thought-out or otherwise) that's too often treated as if stone-cold fact. (it's not as bad a QB-ratings, but along those same lines).
That doesn't mean it should be ignored, only that I think it should be looked at more as a piece of an argument rather than as the end of one.

As far as things go for our annual rankings deal here, while there aren't any rules as to how one comes up with a list, it's traditionally been one where the choices were yours that you could defend if challenged and/or be willing to change if convinced otherwise. Not sure if GWreck meant that WAR-iffic list as one he wants to submit as is or if it was included for informational/comparison purposes only, but it would seem counter to the spirit of this now 12 or 13 year long project if all folks did was look up certain stats and consider that as the final answer.

[Gwreck]

Frayed Knot wrote: it was included for informational/comparison purposes only

Definitely this; apologies if it was unclear.

[Guest d'Kong76]

seawolf17 wrote: edit: Holy crap, I forgot David Wright.

Haha, I copied and pasted your list yesterday into my
Excel sheet as a starting point and started looking at it
this morning and was like, "this can't be Wright!"

[seawolf17]

d'Kong76 wrote: edit: Holy crap, I forgot David Wright. Haha, I copied and pasted your list yesterday into my Excel sheet as a starting point and started looking at it this morning and was like, "this can't be Wright!"

I saw that Chuck had Wright tenth and thought "man, how is he that low? I had to have him higher, right?" and realized I'd left him off entirely. Oops.

[Guest d'Kong76]

I have to proofread, but here's a first crack...

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: Not to steer this thread away from the topic too far, but one problem with WAR is that it's an estimate (well thought-out or otherwise) that's too often treated as if stone-cold fact. (it's not as bad a QB-ratings, but along those same lines). That doesn't mean it should be ignored, only that I think it should be looked at more as a piece of an argument rather than as the end of one. As far as things go for our annual rankings deal here, while there aren't any rules as to how one comes up with a list, it's traditionally been one where the choices were yours that you could defend if challenged and/or be willing to change if convinced otherwise. Not sure if GWreck meant that WAR-iffic list as one he wants to submit as is or if it was included for informational/comparison purposes only, but it would seem counter to the spirit of this now 12 or 13 year long project if all folks did was look up certain stats and consider that as the final answer.

I think a lot of it has to do with the faultiness of defensive stats. But yeah, estimates. a 6 WAR and a 5.5 WAR for instance doesn't say anything about which player is better, but generally the players with the best WAR do pass the eye test for being the best players in the league, so it's hard to say it's less 'wild guess' than James implies.

[Frayed Knot]

Yes, defense is a large part of it and, like James, I haven't gone under the hood of WAR to suss out how I feel about the accuracy of it all nor I have read up on what James is specifically objecting to.
But even without all that it's still just an estimate. It might be a good one (or more than one actually since different methods produce different results) and a useful tool, it just shouldn't be treated as a stone cold fact.

[Frayed Knot]

Position players:

Duda - Wouldn’t have been among the logical guesses to top this list at the beginning of the year, but when you’ve got the highest OBA, SLG, RC/G among the regulars it’s the logical choice
Murphy — Good BA, more (if still not a lot of) walks, and his usual slew of doubles.
Granderson — Much maligned and ridiculously streaky, but 49 XBHs and a ton of walks makes up for at least some sins even if it doesn’t make the contract look much better.
Lagares — About the same offense as Wright in 130 fewer PAs as he went missing for three different stints, but gets defensive points
Wright — Bad year for him obviously.
d’Arnaud — If we could ignore the 1st half he’d be a lot higher
Tejada - Best year from among the semi-regulars, mainly for his position and his .342 OBA
Flores — Played his way into some kind of role going forward … just not sure what that is yet and it would be nice if it comes with an OBP above .286
E Young — Did seem to fill that stereotyped role of ‘catalyst’ better than his stats suggest
Nieuwenhuis — 18 of his 29 hits for XBs, but still only 112 ABs
Campbell
CYoung
den Dekker
Recker - A high pct of XBHs when he played (16 of his 35 hits) and often seemed like they came in big spots
Abreu — Gave us a bunch of professional ABs early on, but fewer and fewer as time went on
Herrera - Showed us something for the future

Brown, Satin, Centeno, Quintanilla, Davis, Teagarden, Tovar ... out of the money


Pitchers:

deGrom - Best ERA & WHiP among the starters. Also best K/9 and lowest HR/9. 8 more starts and he’d have been a CY candidate
Niese - Toss-up with Wheeler. Fewer great games than ZW but also fewer turkeys
Wheeler - If he could reduce his walks by half (or even by 1/3) he’d be a solid #2 starter
Familia - Was the best of the three full-time pitchers out of the pen and it wasn’t really all that close: most appearances, best ERA, fewest HRs/9, lowest WHiP
Colon - Unspectacular but mostly solid and made every start
Gee - Was going great until his seemingly minor mid-season injury turned into an extended absence followed by lots of mediocrity
Torres - All purpose man out of the pen performed well (3.06 ERA, 1.31 WHiP) in just about any role he was asked to fill
Mejia - Led in the glamour stat of saves, but lots of base-runners (1.48 WHiP) led by nearly 4 BB/9. Some of that was from his 7 early season starts, but he also got more shaky out of the pen as the season wore on.
Edgin - Excelled quite nicely (.95 WHiP) in his niche role
Black - Promising future, but too few IP and too many walks to rate any higher
Carlyle - Some good work (1.45 ERA, 0.90 WHiP) in mostly low leverage spots
Matsuzaka - Gave them some decent work early in the season. Then not so much.
Eveland - Performed well for a short span as the 2nd LHP out of the pen
Montero - So far is a control pitcher without his control at the ML level

Germen, Valverde, Farnsworth, Rice, Goeddel, Lannan, Alvarez, Parnell ... no soup for any of you



Combined:

30 - DUDA
29 - deGROM
28 - MURPHY
27 - NIESE
26 - WHEELER
25 - GRANDERSON
24 - LAGARES
23 - WRIGHT
22 - FAMILIA
21 - COLON
20 - d’ARNAUD
19 - GEE
18 - TEJADA
17 - TORRES
16 - MEJIA
15 - FLORES
14 - E YOUNG
13- NIEUWENHUIS
12 - EDGIN
11 - BLACK
10 - CAMPBELL
9 - C YOUNG
8 - den DEKKER
7 - RECKER
6 - CARLYLE
5 - ABREU
4 - HERRERA
3 - MATSUZAKA
2 - MONTERO
1 - EVELAND

[Ceetar]

you got a deadline for this? I haven't gotten to it yet.

[G-Fafif]

seawolf17 wrote: Holy crap, I forgot David Wright.

The 2014 New York Mets Highlight Film -- brought to you by the good folks at Borden.

[Frayed Knot]

Ceetar wrote: you got a deadline for this? I haven't gotten to it yet.

Not yet.
We'll stick a close-out date on it eventually after entries and/or debate winds down, but nothing imminent.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

30. Duda
29. de Grom
28. Murphy
27. Lagares
26. Colon
25. d'Arnaud
24. Familia
23. Wheeler
22. Granderson
21. Wright
20. Niese
19. Mejia
*
18. Edgin
17. Carlisle
16. Eveland
15. Tejada
14. Black
13. Gee
*
12. Flores
11. den Dekker
10. Nieuwenhuis
9. Matsuzaka
8. Campbell
7. Abreu
6. Montero
5. C Young
4. E Young
*
3. Hererra
2. German
1. Brown
-- 0 --
-1. Davis
-2. Farnsworth
-3. Rice
-4. Valverde
*
-5. Goeddel
-6. Centano
-7. Teagarden
-8. Lannan
-9. Satin
-10. Alvarez
-11. Quinanilla
-12. Parnell
-13. Tovar

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Wow, I have Buddy Caryle way up there.

I can be talked down.

[Frayed Knot]

My reluctance to putting Buddy C so high is based on: only 31 innings and most of them were of the low leverage variety.
He didn't even place in the top 30, for instance, in the final PotG tallies despite the good overall numbers.

And speaking of relievers, you're pretty high on most of them but left off Torres completely.
Recker also isn't mentioned, either in your top 30 or in the 'negative' section you list which makes it seem like both were oversights rather than disses.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

definitely forgot Recker. Torres was on original list but musta got overlooked at the merge.

[G-Fafif]

30 deGrom
29 Duda
28 Lagares
27 d'Arnaud
26 Murphy
25 Wheeler
24 Niese
23 Colon
22 Mejia
21 Familia
20 Granderson
19 Wright
18 Gee
17 Flores
16 Black
15 Edgin
14 Torres
13 Campbell
12 Carlyle
11 Eveland
10 Recker
9 Tejada
8 Nieuwenhuis
7 den Dekker
6 E. Young
5 C. Young
4 Brown
3 Abreu
2 Matsuzaka
1 Herrera

[Frayed Knot]

Ah yes, thanks for reviving this.
Ceetar has said he wants to enter his choices, JCL has some corrections to make on his list, and several others who generally contribute have yet to do so.
Which 30 players will make the final list is looking pretty much set. But there are various ways the order within that list can still go.

Not closing any time soon, but this serves as a good reminder.

[Theoldmole]

Good analysis by Frayed...I have to go along with it.

[Ceetar]

30 deGrom
29 Duda
28 Lagares
27 d'Arnaud
26 Wheeler
25 Murphy
24 Niese
23 Colon
22 Granderson
21 Familia
20 Mejia
19 Wright
18 Gee
17 Nieuwenhuis
16 Black
15 Torres
14 Edgin
13 Tejada
12 Campbell
11 Recker
10 Flores
9 E. Young
8 den Dekker
7 Carlyle
6 Eveland
5 Matsuzaka
4 Montero
3 C. Young
2 Herrera
1 Davis

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

fixed mine...

30. Duda
29. de Grom
28. Murphy
27. Lagares
26. Colon
25. d'Arnaud
24. Familia
23. Wheeler
22. Granderson
21. Wright
20. Niese
19. Mejia
*
18. Tejada
17. Torres
16. Black
15. Gee
*
14. Flores
13. den Dekker
12. Nieuwenhuis
11. Edgin
10. Carlisle
9. Recker
8. Eveland
7. Matsuzaka
6. Campbell
5. Abreu
4. Montero
3. C Young
2. E Young
*
1. Hererra
-- 0 --
-1. German
-2. Brown
-3. Davis
-4. Farnsworth
-5. Rice
-6. Valverde
*
-7. Goeddel
-8. Centano
-9. Teagarden
-10. Lannan
-11. Satin
-12. Alvarez
-13. Quinanilla
-14. Parnell
-15. Tovar

[Vic Sage]

DeGrom
Duda
Murphy
Lagares
Niese
D'Arnaud

Wheeler
Granderson
Wright
Famiglia
Colon
Torres

Gee
Tejada
Mejia
Niuehenheis
Flores
Edgin

EYoung
Recker
denDekker
Carlyle
Eveland
Campbell

Black
Herrera
C.Young
Abreu
Matsuzaka
Montero

[Frayed Knot]

Now we're cooking with gas!

I'll leave this open through the holidays for either late entries or further adjustments and/or discussion. (Mole, are you sure you just want to duplicate my order exactly?)
After the 1st of the year we'll consider it official at which point I'll have to get together with Grimm as we never updated the order for the posting levels after last year's rankings (my fault, not his).

[Frayed Knot]

Going Once ... Going Twice ...