Where They Struggle

[Edgy MD]

So, you know, when I think about all this let's-replace-Tejada stuff, I kind of think, sure, but is that where the answer is?

I mean, that ship has sailed to an extent, and now, half way across that metaphorical ocean, we begin to see all the places we leak, and I admit I tend to wonder if left field or even first base isn't a better target. I mean, we all know the team has stunk it up at catcher, but at least we know what we're trying to do there. I have no clue what is going on in left. We have four occupants and only Nieuwenhuis seems to have a better than 30% chance of being back next year.

So I surveyed how we're doing relative to the league.

CATCHER	FIRST BASE	SECOND BASE
Rk Team OPS 1 MIL .912 2 CIN .841 3 ATL .811 4 ARI .756 5 STL .750 6 PIT .733 7 COL .727 8 SDP .707 9 MIA .691 10 PHI .689 11 SFG .677 12 WSN .613 > > 13 NYM .597 < < 14 LAD .586 15 CHC .580	Rk Team OPS 1 ARI .942 2 ATL .888 3 CHC .862 4 WSN .837 5 COL .836 6 SFG .827 7 STL .808 8 CIN .773 > > 9 NYM .771 < < 10 LAD .766 11 MIA .735 12 PHI .711 13 PIT .702 14 MIL .674 15 SDP .599	Rk Team OPS 1 MIL .805 2 PIT .776 3 PHI .776 > > 4 NYM .745 < < 5 LAD .728 6 COL .724 7 CIN .686 8 WSN .653 9 CHC .646 10 ARI .646 11 MIA .639 12 ATL .602 13 SFG .563 14 STL .528 15 SDP .452
THIRD BASE	SHORTSTOP	LEFT FIELD
Rk Team OPS 1 WSN .839 2 CIN .805 3 MIA .779 4 LAD .775 5 PIT .773 > > 6 NYM .755 < < 7 MIL .754 8 STL .751 9 COL .707 10 ARI .699 11 SFG .697 12 CHC .680 13 ATL .658 14 PHI .626 15 SDP .584	RK Team OPS 1 COL .989 2 CHC .809 3 LAD .763 4 ARI .753 5 STL .750 6 WSN .728 7 SFG .725 8 PHI .683 9 ATL .670 10 PIT .663 11 MIA .634 > > 12 NYM .623 < < 13 CIN .584 14 SDP .287 15 MIL .571	RK TEAM OPS 1 ATL .815 2 COL .805 3 LAD .780 4 CHC .760 5 STL .758 6 MIL .756 7 SFG .755 8 SDP .728 9 PIT .710 10 MIA .694 11 CIN .677 12 ARI .656 13 WSN .648 > > 14 NYM .587 < < 15 PHI.560
CENTER FIELD	RIGHT FIELD	PINCH HITTERS
RK Team OPS 1 PIT .938 2 COL .879 3 MIL .845 4 MIA .755 > > 5 NYM .745 < < 6 LAD .742 7 ARI .730 8 WSN .711 9 SFG .693 10 CIN .674 11 PHI .650 12 STL .641 13 SDP .624 14 ATL .618 15 CHC .603	RK Team OPS 1 MIA .965 2 LAD .898 3 SFG .822 4 PHI .818 5 MIL .802 > > 6 NYM .794 < < 7 COL .779 8 WSN .752 9 ATL .716 10 PIT .699 11 SDP .674 12 CIN .663 13 ARI .637 14 STL .622 15 CHC .594	RK TEAM OPS 1 COL .782 2 SDP .709 3 PIT .663 4 ARI .636 5 MIL .622 6 LAD .618 7 WSN .593 8 CIN .577 9 MIA .575 10 STL .568 11 NYM .537 12 PHI .533 13 SFG .528 14 ATL .506 15 CHC .481

Key takeaways:
1) Surprised we're doing so average-ish at first base. I've come to think that Duda has seemingly hit his ceiling, and his replacement isn't cued up. But we can survive with him.
2) Left field, on the other hand, is as much of a non-starter as I thought it was. Good news is that it's among the easiest positions to fill. Bad news is that nothing is easy. But it sure beats trying to save this lineup with a shortstop.

[bmfc1]

Good stuff Edgy. Thank you.

[Frayed Knot]

Edgy MD wrote: 2) Left field, on the other hand, is as much of a non-starter as I thought it was. Good news is that it's among the easiest positions to fill.

Promote Michael Conforto NOW!!!! ... er, OK, sign him first, THEN promote him

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

1) Promote Nimmo
2) Tell him not to swing at anything unless it's middle-in, or he'll be fired
3) Collect .650 OPS and feel like a friggin' genius

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Not a big surprise if I were to guess I'd have said left and catching myself. Tejada it seems to me has improved some, and maybe a little less so as a result of the intenational walks.

Isn't it kind of frustrating to know tha at this poiint of the season we've more or less figured out the bullpen woes that dogged us early and the Grandy struggles, and by extension the leadoff position (a little) and David Wright (a bit), and shortstop a tiny bit, and we're still pretty much putting a good pitcher on the mound most nights, and yet, we're really picking up the pace of losing.

[Edgy MD]

More than kind of.

Sort of why I want to punch our leftfield situation in the face. If we fake it the rest of the season with Abreu and Young and Young and Nieuwenhuis, we'll probably improve. But not enough to take a step forward. And most of those guys are gone next year anyhow. I don't want to plug a hole. I want to... blow some holes in somebody else's boat.

[bmfc1]

Frayed Knot wrote: 2) Left field, on the other hand, is as much of a non-starter as I thought it was. Good news is that it's among the easiest positions to fill. Promote Michael Conforto NOW!!!! ... er, OK, sign him first, THEN promote him

Remember when Sandy said that the Conforto was about to sign? From June 11:

As for top pick Michael Conforto of Oregon State, general manager Sandy Alderson said on Tuesday that he does not anticipate any issues signing the outfielder. "I don't expect it will take very long," Alderson said. "Days rather than weeks."

Liar.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140611&content_id=79286846&notebook_id=79287796&vkey=notebook_nym&c_id=nym

[Edgy MD]

Or, maybe he was just wrong.

Left field: Alex Gordon get anybody excited? Or is too much of his value on the defensive side?

[Ceetar]

My pet theory lately is the second half is going to be pretty damn good for the Mets, but they may have dug themselves too big a hole to make it exciting. We'll just look back and notice "hey, they did pretty good after all?" I'm predicting someone will look up in early September and realize the Mets are really only like 6-7 back.

Anyway, where they struggle, besides left field, seems to have no easy fix. As we've noted, though SS looks bad Q and Flores bring that down. C is a big sinkhole but we know where we're going with that, and perhaps d'Arnaud has settled in now?

Duda is 18th best in wRC+ in the NL. He's a good player. Problem is you sometimes look for more at 1B (he's 11/28 in wRC+ of qualifying 1B. 13th in unadjusted OPS). So there is clearly room for improvement but you won't quite get as much improvement as you would upgrading one of the weaker positions if you can pull that off.

so yeah. LF. Nieuwenhuis is still striking out like every third AB which might suggest his offense isn't sustainable, but maybe ride it while it's hot? Abreu seems to have leveled out but at least it's a level above water. Time to pull the plug on Chris Young and just let these guys play? Although if you squint, Young has 3 HR over the last 14 days /26 pa.. Cesar Puello returned from injury and homered twice yesterday. Jump him up soon?

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Edgy MD wrote: Or, maybe he was just wrong. Left field: Alex Gordon get anybody excited? Or is too much of his value on the defensive side?

He's not bad. How do you propose acquiring him? Dunno if KC surrenders a homegrown allstar. Not that we want to get this granular but I think we'd prefer a RH-hitting leftfielder.

[seawolf17]

I wish ESPN had an MLB Trade Machine like their NBA one so you could play with combinations and see how they look.

[Edgy MD]

I open with Flores and Germen. When they laugh, I tell them to stfu and casually bring up Puello's name.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

The outfield market doesn;t look real great right now, lotta veteran types you might look at (Seth Smith etc)
Carlos Gonzalez (been hurt a few times this year)
Matt Kemp (reportedly very available, but extremely expensive to feed)
Mets have reportedly spoken with Tampa about Matt Joyce before, he's having a good year. Maybe they are ready to pull the plug on Will Myers.

Of course Brown is killing it at Las Vegas (as is Flores).

[Edgy MD]

Matt Kemp has been hitting like a rich man's Chris Young for a while now. And yet, I'm intrigued. Plus, he knows V. Stiviano.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Ya mind if I congratulate myself over here just a little bit?

From the Predict the Mets thread:

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=20976&hilit=predict

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Wanna know what I'm guessing is gonna be the the Mets biggest hole this season? Not shortstop. Not Duda and/or Davis. Not the bullpen. The outfield. It'll suck big time and Sandy'll be asking "What outfield?" again, by the all-star break. Of course, I dissed Marlon Byrd big-time around this time last year. So just ignore this post, unless it turns out to be correct.

I know it's only half a season and the Mets OF sucktitude is due in good part to Grandy's feeble April and Grandy's been raking it ever since like he's suddenly Reggie Jackson and these are the '70's, but half a season is half a season. It counts for half of the season. Why a fella could even get selected to the All Star Game for nothing more than having a pretty good half a season.

chest pounding self-congratulatory gif


(Gorilla not to be confused with the Not So Mighty Chris Young, who might still suck enough to cancel Grandy's Reggie impersonation).

[Ceetar]

Mets OF is 14th in fWAR,wRC+, Tied for 17th in wOBA, 17th in OPS, and 15th in ISO.

So uh, pretty middle of the road there.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Ceetar wrote: Mets OF is 14th in fWAR,wRC+, Tied for 17th in wOBA, 17th in OPS, and 15th in ISO. So uh, pretty middle of the road there.

Problem solved. Move along. No need to look here. Nothing to see. Now let's win those 90 games Sandy said we could win.

[batmagadanleadoff]

How'd that kitty kat get on top of the Empire State Building?

[Edgy MD]

Certainly the outfield needs some addressing, but the rankings above suggest they're certainly adequate --- better than the mean certainly --- in center and right. But have been a torrential disaster in left. Only the Phils and Domonic Brown suddenly remembering what he was keeps the Mets out of the cellar. (Makes a man wonder what, exactly, Brown was on last year.)

So, considering that my Alex Gordon notion may be pie-in-the-sky. Assuming that the team wants to address this shortcoming this season rather than waiting, where do you think they will or should go?

[list:15otpz2b][*:15otpz2b]Domonic Brown[/*:m:15otpz2b]
[*:15otpz2b]Marlon Byrd[/*:m:15otpz2b]
[*:15otpz2b]Michael Cuddyer[/*:m:15otpz2b]
[*:15otpz2b]Chris Denorfia[/*:m:15otpz2b]
[*:15otpz2b]Adam Dunn[/*:m:15otpz2b]
[*:15otpz2b]Junior Lake[/*:m:15otpz2b]
[*:15otpz2b]John Mayberry, Jr.[/*:m:15otpz2b]
[*:15otpz2b]Gerardo Parra[/*:m:15otpz2b]
[*:15otpz2b]Martin Prado[/*:m:15otpz2b]
[*:15otpz2b]Carlos Quentin[/*:m:15otpz2b]
[*:15otpz2b]Ben Revere[/*:m:15otpz2b]
[*:15otpz2b]Alex Rios[/*:m:15otpz2b]
[*:15otpz2b]Nate Schierholtz[/*:m:15otpz2b]
[*:15otpz2b]Dayan Viciedo[/*:m:15otpz2b]
[*:15otpz2b]Josh Willingham[/*:m:15otpz2b]
[*:15otpz2b]Ben Zobrist[/*:m:15otpz2b][/list:u:15otpz2b]

Or do you still focus on shortstops like Castro or Alexei Ramirez?

I'm about left field, I am. Some leftfielders also make good backup firstbasemen. Very few of the above solve anything beyond this season. Many offer only a modest promise that they'll do even that. All intrigue to one degree or another when held up next to Chris Young. Lots of Cubs and White Sox on the list. Phillies galore, too.

If the Mets made a sudden push, I could see the team acquiring a pile of Phillies the way the Phillies grabbed Wendell, Cook and Pratt in 2002.

If.

Willingham is almost always a good have-bat/will-travel guy. Professional hitter, he.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

The possibilities really open up if you consider including Muffo in a deal since you trade a LH hitter at 2nd for a RH one (Flores). That's something to consider.

Then there's always Byrd.

[Ceetar]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: The possibilities really open up if you consider including Muffo in a deal since you trade a LH hitter at 2nd for a RH one (Flores). That's something to consider. Then there's always Byrd.

Except there's every chance Flores makes any LF upgrade a wash.

Those guys strike me as mostly washed up or old, but I'm sure one or two of them must be having a decent season. I've always liked Zobrist though and he's at least a better backup SS than Campbell.

[Edgy MD]

Well, sure they all have downsides, some of them big.

But if the alternative is Chris Young --- and I know you don't like EY --- you may consider shopping.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Ceetar wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: The possibilities really open up if you consider including Muffo in a deal since you trade a LH hitter at 2nd for a RH one (Flores). That's something to consider. Then there's always Byrd. Except there's every chance Flores makes any LF upgrade a wash. Those guys strike me as mostly washed up or old, but I'm sure one or two of them must be having a decent season. I've always liked Zobrist though and he's at least a better backup SS than Campbell.

Not to overstate the comparison or propose any old deal, but oftentimes teams need to make a painful sacrifice to advance. You don't root for it, but you gotta do it.

In some ways Muffie could be the Hubie Brooks of his generation.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: Well, sure they all have downsides, some of them big. But if the alternative is Chris Young --- and I know you don't like EY --- you may consider shopping.

Yeah, I just want 2005 Carlos Beltran to be out there is all.

Zobrist is my uneducated pick just off of the list of names. I'd probably try for someone along the Chris Young format though, slugging and defense.

[Vic Sage]

i have no interest in trading young guys to make a run for THIS year. THIS year ain't happening. If they can't help us down the road, i wouldn't give up prospects for them, unless they're excellent players in their prime. And none of the older guys on that list are excellent players in their prime. They are either platoon or part-timers are on the wrong side of 33-34, or coming off chronic injuries. The only guys on that list under 30 are:

� Domonic Brown, 27 (L) - maybe a 1-year wonder with only Philly-bandbox power? or just taking a step back in his development before moving forward? good minor-league numbers indicate more promise
� Junior Lake, 25 ® - his minor-league numbers indicate he'd hit ok for the SS he was then, but as a major league LFer, no.
� Gerardo Parra, 27 (L) - good glove, but not enough bat
� Ben Revere, 26 (L) - good speed, no BB, no power, good glove in CF, would be wasted in LF
� Dayan Viciedo, 25 ® - 20-25 hr/ .250 hitter, lousy BB/K ration but still young enough to improve

The guy here i'd take a shot at is Viciedo, and Brown would also be worth a look. But neither is so exciting i'd part with a Montero or DeGrom for them, and Puello or Nimmo could be the same guy, so why give up a legit prospect for either of them?

[Edgy MD]

Well, I ain't advocating, but Nimmo won't be here this year or next. And Puello --- well, if you think he's for real, you might want to have a bird in the hand as well as one in the bushes. Get an extra ticket before the wheel stops spinning, so to speak.

But the assumption going in was that the team wanted to address the situation this season.

[Vic Sage]

i understand that improving THIS season was your premise, but unless you can do that by either (1) also improving the position going forward, or (2) not giving up valuable assets, then i don't understand why we would do it. To maybe win 80 games this year, instead of 75? I agree that we're thin at the position in the minors too, so that makes it more imperative to find a quality YOUNG guy we can plug and play for a while. If Puello ain't it (and Nimmo is too far off), then make a move for a guy who is, but not for an aging Josh Willingham-type.

there are younger players around the league like Springer (Hou), Khris Davis (Mil), Pollack (Az), Marte (Pitt), Yelich (Mia), but none are likely gettable without giving up a great deal. Ditto squared for the stars and solid vets at the position (Stanton, Upton, Heyward, McCutcheon, Pulig, CarGo). I think, maybe, a trade of Murphy and Colon to a contender in the upcoming weeks could net us some quality prospects. Then those could be packaged with some of our own for a blue-chip OFer. Much preferred to a patch job with a platoon vet so we an win a few more games this year. We should be sellers, not buyers.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I agree. I don't see any reason to trade for older guys like Marlon Byrd. Let's get someone under the age of 30.

[Edgy MD]

Well, the idea would certainly be to improve. Obviously, the better the guy and the younger the guy, the bigger the package.

The market will change when they're done sweeping the Braves.

[Frayed Knot]

The type of OF guy you'd want to trade for now (or most times really, but especially in the current NYM position) is someone else's nearly ready top position prospect -- someone like Oscar Tavares of StL, Joc Pederson w/the Dodgers, etc. Tall order? ... sure, but guys like that do get moved: Will Myers for James Shields (other pieces involved as well) or Jesus Montero to Seattle for Michael Pineda (a bad example maybe since both crashed and burned since the swap but no one knew that at the time) both went down in the last few years.
Most of that list from the previous page is likely to help us little now (if that) and not at all in the future.

What would such a deal take? Syndergaard almost certainly in the type of one-for-one 'challenge trade' that exchanges players of similar age/future such as Montero/Pineda, or something like a plug-in player (Muffy maybe) plus several prospects that fill some current contender's holes.