2014 IPP: Zack Wheeler

[Benjamin Grimm]

It was moderately popular last year, so we'll try it again this year. IPP stands for Individual Player Predictions. These will be threads where we share our expectations of how a player will perform in the current year. Feel free to make your predictions as specific or as vague as you like. (You can find a listing of the 2013 IPPs here.)

[crossout]Zach[/crossout] Zack Wheeler pitched 168 innings last year. I think this year they'll let him get to around 190, he'll be pulled after five or six innings in many of his early starts. 3.30 ERA, 10 wins. Hopefully he'll keep his pitch count lower than it often was last season.

[Edgy MD]

Am I the only one terrified that Wheeler '14 will be a clinical study in wildness?

I'm telling you, it keeps me up nights. When he was all over the place in his first big league start, it was reported as debut jitters, but a quick look at the minor league record (and now the major league record, such as it is) suggested that, no, that's a big part of who he is. Unhittable, but untameable.

After watching Matt Harvey pounding the strike zone relentlessly last year, I fear he may drive Mets fans a little crazy.

[Lefty Specialist]

I worry about Wheeler too. It's not just the innings pitched; it's the number of pitches required to complete those innings. I think he'll get 10 wins, but it'll be a struggle as he'll have a Leiter-like propensity to hit 100 pitches early in games resulting in extensive bullpen use.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

That's why I think he's a Key Met-- the floor ain't as high as some people think, I think.

The strikeouts track upward, but so do the furshlugginer walks and pitch counts.

30 GS, 181 IP, 10-11 record, 3.93 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 171 K, 8.5 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 16 HR allowed

[Ceetar]

I worry a little, but not a lot, about the wildness. I still think he's going to be extremely effective and such. Where I worry more is in the analysis of how he's doing and the expectation that he'll match Harvey from last year. That's not really important from a performance standpoint, unless everyone starts asking him questions like "How are you going to improve?" after he throws 7 innings, 1 run, 4 walks, 6 Ks.


I predict..

3.33 ERA, 12-6, 185IP 165 K, 77 BB

I predict 9/10 people that write about him by the end of the year will correctly use Zack instead of Zach.

0 Instagram photos with models, but references Harvey's GF twice in separate interviews.

(are we doing a Harvey IPP?)

[MFS62]

Has the stuff to make fans cheer.
Has the control to make fans yell, "put him away, already".

12-10, 3.76 ERA, 175 (tough to watch) IP, 7.9 K/9 IP, 4.3/9 IP.

Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

Ceetar wrote: I predict 9/10 people that write about him by the end of the year will correctly use Zack instead of Zach.

Oops! I had learned the correct spelling last season, but must have forgotten over the winter. I'll fix the thread title.

Ceetar wrote: (are we doing a Harvey IPP?)

I wasn't planning on it, since he's not likely to pitch, but you can start one if you like.

[Guest themetfairy]

The K is for strikeouts!

[Guest d'Kong76]

11 wins

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Hoping he continues to improve, and stays healthy. If so he's a ... a 16-game winner.

16-9, 3.78 146/65 in 28 starts/170.2 IP

[smg58]

Still a work in progress, but the Mets will take his 180 IP, 3.30 ERA, and 1.25 WHIP.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I don't know how you get a guy to start throwing fewer pitches. You can ask him to pitch to contact, but that can have disastrous results. Just about every start seems to be a struggle for Zack.

My expectations for him have lowered somewhat, but he's still a young pitcher and he may need another season or two to find his footing. (I remember how bad guys like Craig Swan and Mike Scott looked in their early years.)

[Frayed Knot]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I don't know how you get a guy to start throwing fewer pitches.

Throwing the ball over the plate more often would be a nice start.
And it's not just the walks*, it's the deep counts to too many hitters that drives him towards or above the 15/IP you'd like to stay below even for those frames where he throws to just 3 or 4 batters. In the 1st inning on Saturday he got the first two outs on 8 pitches and looked like he was headed for a short one - but then needed 22 more to get out of the inning in part because he threw six pitches to four different hitters. In all he walked 'just' three yesterday but went to a 3-ball count on six others.




* although those are high enough - 3 in 7 IP yesterday / 80 in 178 IP for his career (which is essentially one full year at this point as he made his ML debut a year ago this Wednesday)

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Believe it or not, he's actually doing better than last year in a bunch of key ways; he's striking out more, walking fewer batters, allowing fewer HRs, and coaxing more grounders. He's also throwing slightly more first-pitch strikes (but is still below league average here) and getting more swinging strikes.

A few outings with more charitable umpiring/better luck with those grounders might do his stat sheet some real good.