2014 IPP: Juan Lagares

[Benjamin Grimm]

It was moderately popular last year, so we'll try it again this year. IPP stands for Individual Player Predictions. These will be threads where we share our expectations of how a player will perform in the current year. Feel free to make your predictions as specific or as vague as you like. (You can find a listing of the 2013 IPPs here.)

I'm rooting for Juan Lagares to win the starting center field job this spring, but I think Terry has a bias toward's Eric Young's "leadoff skills." So Juan will start the season in Las Vegas, and spend more time there than he deserves. He'll get called up if someone gets hurt, and he'll stay in the lineup if that injury is a lengthy one, or if someone (like Eric or Chris Young) falters.

[metirish]

Can't see him starting anywhere but Flushing, he is one of the best CF in the game, I mean, that is a fair thing to say yes?

.280 - 15HR - 48 RBI

[Ceetar]

Shares some time early but ultimately starts hitting just enough that he's penciled in every day.

.255/.303/.404

Maintains great defense though not quite as spectacular as last year and as such this gets him to about 5.1 bWAR

[smg58]

Ceetar's line looks about right to me. .700 OPS and a (deserved) Gold Glove.

[MFS62]

Retakes centerfield after Chris Young goes on a hot streak and is traded by mid-year and Eric Young doesn't hit much. Then holds onto the job by hitting .252-6-34 with 14 outfield assists in 94 games.

Later

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

A .700 OPS looks a little optimistic, but I suspect it's more optimistic to assume the defensive value numbers will stay on track with last year's ridiculously good debut. That he's the best option in center doesn't mean he'll start there as much as he should; Terry will eventually see the light (or be forced to squint), but... well... I don't see a whole season of starts in the cards.

112 G, 395 PA, .254/.291/.359, 32 R, 5 HR, 33 RBI, 6 SB, 28 XBH, 1.8 WAR or so

[Edgy MD]

metirish wrote: Can't see him starting anywhere but Flushing, he is one of the best CF in the game, I mean, that is a fair thing to say yes? .280 - 15HR - 48 RBI

It's hard to glean what the Mets' plan for him is.

As far as him being one of the best centerfielders in the game, I'd agree that he certainly was that last year, but the Mets perhaps don't (or perhaps shouldn't) necessarily think of that performance as repeatable. Maybe they see him as the Mike Jacobs of defenders. A handful of wacky throws --- some against runners who shouldn't have run anyway --- contain a lot of his defensive (and overall) value from 2013. Maybe they look at his technique and don't see how his defense can consistently bring three and a half wins of value.

If that's their attitude, I wouldn't blame them. But if you see him as good enough to bring home two wins with the glove and arm, I imagine they'd like to see him as capable of adding two more with the bat before they give him a job. Right now, I think some sort of shared job between him and den Dekker is the backup plan for Young, but until they settle the Duda/Davis situation, there are four outfielders in front of them.

.244 / .289 / .391 // .690.

[Frayed Knot]

I agree that the runners caught stat is hardly a given to repeat. His arm is good but not overwhelming and we all know that weak and/or erratic OF arms are often at or near the top of the league in assists.
But it's hard to imagine that his first-step jumps and seemingly perfect routes aren't skills that'll show up at the park virtually everyday and yield a net-plus whether that asset shows up in a quantifiable stat or not.

[Edgy MD]

Which is why I think it's safe-ish to pencil in 2.0 defensive WAR instead of the 3.5 of 2013.

And that's also why I imagine it'll take more bat than he's shown to give him job security.

[Frayed Knot]

Yeah, I'm less convinced than some that he's in the lead to be a full-time starter.

[TransMonk]

Frayed Knot wrote: Yeah, I'm less convinced than some that he's in the lead to be a full-time starter.

This.

[Benjamin Grimm]

It seems clear that he's not. Terry is very high on Eric Young.

[Edgy MD]

Given a dose of mostly lefty pitching, I expect his stats to be distinctly higher than those I noted above. I'm very curious to see what a LaDekker can do in the Mets lineup, either in 2014 when trade/injury/failure opens up a spot, or in 2015 when Young (and maybe others have moved on.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I can see Puello and Lagares (with or without den Dekker) joining Granderson in the Mets outfield in 2015. Maybe even sooner, depending on how the Youngs do.

[Guest d'Kong76]

I d'know .. can I do that twice? He is fun to watch in
the outfield.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: It seems clear that he's not. Terry is very high on Eric Young.

I gotta say, I don't really believe that either. I mean I'm sure Terry's enthusiasm is over the moon for EYJ, but he's not gonna take center field starts from Lagares. Would imagine if not Lagares in CF it's Chris Young in CF and EY in left, but even then.

I think the Mets were wise to add another candidate in CF, given Lagares was the 3rd option last season.

I think they will send him to Vegas and hope he hits his way back up. Up here, I'd bet on the same-ish offense and some decline in D value.

As an aside, you'd think defensive metrics would adjust in the cases like Lagares's where assists are a big part of the number. That said he really did go get 'em with the best I've seen at big Shea in years and years.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Mike Vorkunov/The Star-Ledger wrote: VIERA, Fla. - Whether Juan Lagares can hit well enough to be the Mets everyday center fielder is still a relevant question, but GM Sandy Alderson indicated today that Lagares will get a chance to prove himself. Lagares hit .241 with a .633 OPS in 421 plate appearances last season, but played exemplary outfield defense and had 15 outfield assists. "Everybody would probably agree he’s our best outfielder, he’s our best centerfielder, but he’s going to have to hit a little bit, too," Alderson said. "So if he were to start in center field on opening day, I think that we’d have to see over a period of time… how long, how short I don’t know—that he could carry the offensive side of the game as well. If that’s not the case, then typically a guy like that would be better off playing every day somewhere else, but that’s premature." Asked if Lagares had done enough to be the starting center fielder, Terry Collins replied: "Tough to answer that right now. We know how good he is defensively."

I'm not sure what conclusion to draw from Sandy's statement. Mike Vorkunov seems to think it means that Lagares has won the job, but I don't see it.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

The Rubinator had the same interpretation, and it makes sense. Lagares can go get it but a if he's gonna go get it with a .600 OPS we're gonna hafta look at alternatives. Not that that's what I'm expecting, but in general, with Tejada being what he is, and Ike Davis, etc., we can't carry too many stiffs everyday.

Sandy also said today that Davis and Doodoo would make the OD roster, with the idea that the Interleague at Anaheim will get them both some action right away. But I can't see that continuing. We have to choose one or the other.

[Frayed Knot]

As with many of these decisions at this time of year, we tend to act like they all need to be made prior to opening day but of course they don't.

In this case Lagares did enough last season, IMO, to deserve at shot at starting in this season whereas the likes of Nieuwenhuis & Flores don't get that benefit of the doubt. But I also agree that the leash can't be all that long and how he plays on both halves of the inning will determine a course of action - maybe as soon as late April/early May.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I think the Mets tentativeness on Lagares was the right approach, CY's struggles notwithstanding.

Not to dismiss what he's done well but since a very BABiPpy April all his rates are dropping pretty steadily. More troubling is that he's been hurt twice. That's not quite the foundation you'd like to a guy like him to be.

[Edgy MD]

It's hard to not see him as Carlos Gomez five years from now.

It's hard to not picture five years of waiting for him to become Carlos Gomez.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Edgy MD wrote: It's hard to not see him as Carlos Gomez five years from now. It's hard to not picture five years of waiting for him to become Carlos Gomez.

Really I don't see how he'll ever be as valuable a guy as Gomez. Doesn't have his speed or power, and walks even less. Keeps getting hurt. That's a big deal.

I'm quite down on Lagares.

[Edgy MD]

I wouldn't call myself bullish, but he's fifth in the big leagues in defensive WAR, despite playing in far fewer games than the competition

Rank	Guy	Team	Def. WAR	Games
1.	Heyward	ATL	2.5	90
2.	Cozart	CIN	2.3	87
3.	Donaldson	OAK	2.1	89
4.	Peralta	STL	2.1	90
5.	Lagares	NYM	1.7	56
6.	Gordon	KCR	1.6	88
7.	Dyson	KCR	1.6	64
8.	Bradley	BOS	1.6	82
9.	Simmons	ATL	1.5	87
10.	Martin	TEX	1.5	88

[Frayed Knot]

Lagares 2014 (Age 25) over 202 ABs -- .287/.321/.401

Carlos Gomez Age 25 (2011) only 231 ABs --.225/.276/.403 (missed July 20 - Sept 2 w/injuries)


Closer stats than I would have thought: better Avg for Lagares, better power by Gomez (IsoP = 178 vs 114).
Of course Gomez started to explode the following year and then really did by 2013, and while it's certainly possible that Lagares will follow a similar path it's tough to expect that he will.
Lagares is three years, three months younger.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'm tempted to sell high on Lagares. He's been a .250 singles hitter without any walks since his return from the DL and as discussed above his early success owes some to BABiP. With Gomez, you could see he had the speed and body that could one day make him a real stud; I don't know how much Lagares will improve.

Let's put it this way: He has roughly the same number of plate appearances as Chris Young this year and Young has has more HRs, walks and steals despite being widely recognized as one of the worst players in the league.

[Ceetar]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I'm tempted to sell high on Lagares. He's been a .250 singles hitter without any walks since his return from the DL and as discussed above his early success owes some to BABiP. With Gomez, you could see he had the speed and body that could one day make him a real stud; I don't know how much Lagares will improve. Let's put it this way: He has roughly the same number of plate appearances as Chris Young this year and Young has has more HRs, walks and steals despite being widely recognized as one of the worst players in the league.

.300 singles* (he has two doubles in 30 AB) hitter. 30. 30 AB.

Before that he had an acceptable .324 OBP with a .122 ISO. Only 8 non-I walks but that was an improved rate over last year. His BAbip was higher, .367, but not that high, particularly for a guy with footspeed. And that's in 6x the sample as the return from DL stuff. I'd give him another AB or two before selling high.

[Edgy MD]

What's the plan? If we're talking about moving him, while we can't even staff left field competitively, we better be confident there's a better option going forward. Because the present matters, baby.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Yeah, I know.

I'm just like ... the reason you'd stay with Lagares is that you hope he gets better in the future but I'm getting to the point where I've seen enough of him to doubt that. And if that's the case maybe the time to make your move is sooner rather than later, especially if it gives you the means to address other needs.

I do think the Mets could get by with a combo of Young, Young, Grandy, Niuwy and (if necessary) den Dekker out there, we've seen 'em do it. Then you can look at your Nimmos and stuff.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Even if there's no improvement with the bat, he's still an asset; assuming the injuries don't become (remain?) chronic, and there's even mild, WAY-sub-Gomezian improvement, he's still a formidable one.

If you want to dangle him a little, fine. But you don't give someone away for not being one of the best 5-10 players in the game right now.

[Edgy MD]

Centerfield WAR in the NL EAST

Ozuna, MIA: 3.2
Lagares, NYM: 2.8
Span, WSH: 1.6
Upton, ATL: -0.4
Revere, PHI: -0.5

And on a per-game basis, he's out-paced Ozuna by 34%. It's not even close.

It's frustrating that he hasn't hit since being reactivated, but perhaps there was something to the concern that his swing was impeded. I dunno. But I do know that, as we're frustrated when good hitting isn't supporting good starting pitching efforts, he's a big part of why we're getting so many good starting pitching efforts from the likes of Colon and Niese. In a big park like Citi with the likes of Lagares in center, Colon can pitch until he's 50.

I guess I'm saying that a lot of his quality is showing up on somebody else's ledger, and if he got dealt, a lot of us might be wondering this time next year why Colon and Niese had gone downhill so fast.

OE: Well, we'd blame Colon's decline on age and carbs, but we'd be wrong.