2014 IPP: Lucas Duda

[Benjamin Grimm]

It was moderately popular last year, so we'll try it again this year. IPP stands for Individual Player Predictions. These will be threads where we share our expectations of how a player will perform in the current year. Feel free to make your predictions as specific or as vague as you like. (You can find a listing of the 2013 IPPs here.)

I'm not nearly as high on Lucas Duda as some others here are. I predicted that Ike Davis would be the Mets first baseman in April, and then lose the job to suckiness, but I don't think Duda will be the guy to replace him. I think Lucas will see about as much playing time as Rusty Staub did in 1985, and then get traded.

[Ceetar]

Not sure how to predict Duda since I think Davis ends up with the first base job, but he's still an above average hitter so you gotta get him in there too, or trade him. So I'll just go all rate stats with no counting ones.

.249/.361/.435 12.5% BB rate, 22.2% K rate. 126 wRC+

[smg58]

I think Duda will produce something comparable to his .246/.342/.424 career line. Davis will outperform him and it won't be close -- but that doesn't mean we're keeping Davis.

[MFS62]

smg58 wrote: I think Duda will produce something comparable to his .246/.342/.424 career line. Davis will outperform him and it won't be close -- but that doesn't mean we're keeping Davis.

Those stats lines look about right to me, but I'm not sure in how many games. Or with which team.

Later

Edited March 6, 2014 by Guest

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

He'll get his. Eventually.

370 PA, .259/.362/.444, 49 R, 18 HR, 62 RBI, 20 2B

[Guest d'Kong76]

DH, elsewhere.

[Theoldmole]

Buffalo, traded.

[Zvon]

I'm gonna miss him.

[ashie62]

DL..Traded...

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

This will be the Year of Doodoo. WRITE IT DOWN!!

285/349/505 23-83 in 550 ABs

[Zvon]

Zvon wrote: I'm gonna miss him.

Shame on me. I think 1st base is settled. Finally. Good show Duda!

He seems on a much more focused and even keel, and first is the only place for him. Actually has played a very decent 1st base, footwork issues aside. Duda with power (30-40 kabooms) makes 2015 look more exciting than just lining up those arms. I think we can count on him. I love when I can feel that way about a position.

[crossout]*crosses first base off list[/crossout]

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: This will be the Year of Doodoo. WRITE IT DOWN!! 285/349/505 23-83 in 550 ABs

Most optimistic guess in the forum will be smashed. SMASHED! DUDASMASH!!!!1

[Lefty Specialist]

He got the job due to Davis' ineptitude, and to his credit, he's run with it. Now that he's playing every day, he's putting up the numbers that none of us dared dream of. Just wish he'd go the other way once in a while, because that shift dooms him to being a .250 hitter. Of course, the shift becomes irrelevant when you put them 30 rows back in the bleachers.....

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Two-fifty shmoo-shmifty. He's walking a shit-ton, and getting on-base at a higher clip than anybody else we have, including our leadoff men, Wright, and Actual .300 Hitter Murphy. An occasional bunt might help the batting average, but if it makes him uncomfortable at all, or could potentially knock him out of whatever routine produced this, well, give me this.

[Benjamin Grimm]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: This will be the Year of Doodoo. WRITE IT DOWN!! 285/349/505 23-83 in 550 ABs Most optimistic guess in the forum will be smashed. SMASHED! DUDASMASH!!!!1

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I'm not nearly as high on Lucas Duda as some others here are. I predicted that Ike Davis would be the Mets first baseman in April, and then lose the job to suckiness, but I don't think Duda will be the guy to replace him. I think Lucas will see about as much playing time as Rusty Staub did in 1985, and then get traded.

Meanwhile, I was way off the mark. (At least I was right about Ike Davis, though.)

[ashie62]

I could not have been anymore wrong. Now I like him better than Wright.

[Frayed Knot]

Two-fifty shmoo-shmifty. He's walking a shit-ton, and getting on-base at a higher clip than anybody else we have, including our leadoff men, Wright, and Actual .300 Hitter Murphy. An occasional bunt might help the batting average, but if it makes him uncomfortable at all, or could potentially knock him out of whatever routine produced this, well, give me this.

Also, his hit placement isn't that lopsided.
According to BB-Ref, his 105 hits this season are divided thusly: 32 pulled, 60 'Up the Middle', and 13 'Oppo' (as the kids say today). And that ~12.4% to LF is actually slightly above his career norm of closer to 11%
Now the 'border' between those areas is a bit hazy so, to quote NYM fan Jerry S., who knows how official any of these rankings really are.
But in a year where the entire league is batting .249 (compared to LD's .255) the shifts aren't killing him too much.

[Gwreck]

I too would like to see him bunt against that shift a bit more.

The more worrisome thing for me is that Duda is completely ineffective (just abysmal) against lefties. Fortunately the rest of time he's got all-star numbers.

[Edgy MD]

Well, then, double your pleasure, and ask him to bunt against the shift, but only against lefties.

[Frayed Knot]

And only if he's leading off an inning.
I understand the whole frustration about seeing guys hitting into shifts, but if there are men on base I want that big boy swinging.