H-Day

[Edgy MD]

Some time in the next few hours, perhaps shortly, we'll find out the decision Matt Harvey and the Mets make with regard to his future and that of his UCL.

[metirish]

Opts not to have surgery , rests and rehabs , goes to Spring Training but there is always that question in the mind.....blows out arm completely in April and that's that.

[Edgy MD]

That would be something akin to selection number five, I think.

Whatever choice is made, the Mets will be torn to shreds in the next 24 hours. And part of the tearing will be the suspicion that whatever choice is made will be made in part to avoid being torn to shreds.

[metirish]

Did you edit the choices?, I only saw one "Has no surgery" before.

That's why I voted "something different than above".

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Counting on a repeat of the stretch earlier this year is insane even with a clean bill of health or bionic implants.

Goes under the knife, comes back like most post-TJ guys do just fine, just not slamdunky CyYungy

[MFS62]

I was going to pick one of the has no surgery choices, but I think his agent is Scott Boras. If so, Scottie is whispering in his ear that it is better to miss a low(er) payroll year at the beginning of a career to ensure big paydays later.
So I picked has it, returns to form.
Later

[Vic Sage]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Counting on a repeat of the stretch earlier this year is insane even with a clean bill of health or bionic implants. Goes under the knife, comes back like most post-TJ guys do just fine, just not slamdunky CyYungy

This.
Surgery, return in 2015 with limited use and mediocre production the first half, with improvement in the 2nd half, and in 2016 he gets near, but not at, the same CY-level as this season.

[Benjamin Grimm]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Counting on a repeat of the stretch earlier this year is insane even with a clean bill of health or bionic implants.

That's been my thought too. I think he'll skip the surgery; the vibe I'm getting is that he wants to go the Halladay/Wainwright path. He'll come back in 2014, not be as good as he was (but still pretty darn good), and we'll never know if it's because of the elbow or because his 2013 was too good to be repeatable.

I don't know if skipping the surgery is the wise choice, but I think it's the way he'll go.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

By the way, this is a perfect example of the kind of mess the Mets always find themselves getting into. Somehow a good season by a promising young player turns into recriminations of their culpability when he gets hurt and now, a controversy built atop treating that injury. Seems to me if Harvey elects surgery, the Mets are to blame for getting him there; and if he elects to treat with rehab, the Mets will be blamed for "encouraging" that solution.

[Edgy MD]

I mention that above. And if the team is going to be damned either way, we should proceed with caution into the damning party.

[Frayed Knot]

Repeating the first half of 2013 is unlikely to be the case whether he has the surgery of not or even had the partial tear had never occurred - so the phrase 'returns to form' is subject to various interpretations.
I'm leaning right now towards the current recommendation being NO surgery and he'll be on the mound for opening day 2014 as a solid front of the rotation type pitcher even if without the whole Gibson/'68 or Gooden/'85 vibe.


I'll have to read through the choices to see which choice comes closest to that.

[Edgy MD]

Third choice.

[TransMonk]

Has surgery, but will never again pitch like he did the first half of this season.

I'm not sure he would have returned to that form without the surgery or even without the tear at all.

[Benjamin Grimm]

September 17, 2013 12:27 PM The latest on NY Mets' Matt Harvey's big decision BY Andy Martino Matt Harvey received his official second opinion on Monday from Dr. James Andrews, and we are expecting some sort of update later today. In the meantime, checked in within the past hour with a league source briefed on the situation, and received this answer on whether or not the Mets� ace will opt for Tommy John surgery: �Still debating.� This source believed that Harvey is likely to throw a baseball again before making the final decision. The Mets are being extremely tight-lipped about the situation, and would not confirm this information on any level. Stay tuned.

[Edgy MD]

It would be some comfort, I suppose (for Harvey, not least of all), if this wasn't really a matter of debate and after the consultations, the best course of action was clear and obvious.

But it appears to be a judgement call, which means endless second-guessing no matter what.

[metirish]

It might well be that Andrews told him(advised him) that surgery is the best route....of course the final decision is the patients.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm hoping to hear that he's not getting the surgery. But I suppose that what I'm really hoping is that Harvey's decision, whichever way he goes, is ultimately the right one. But we may never know for sure.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I'm hoping to hear that he's not getting the surgery. But I suppose that what I'm really hoping is that Harvey's decision, whichever way he goes, is ultimately the right one. But we may never know for sure.

This. We'll never know. All we can hope for is that ultimately, he can continue to pitch effectively, dominantly even.

[Benjamin Grimm]

We might know. If he skips the surgery and his arm falls off next year, we know he made the wrong choice. But if he skips it and pitches without incident for the next ten years, then he made a good choice. If he does get the surgery, we'll never know if it was the right or wrong choice.

[metirish]

At what point in his career did Halladay deal with a similar issue?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hallaro01.shtml

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think I read that it was 2006. He missed the month of September and returned by Opening Day in 2007. But looking at his game logs, it seems more likely that it was his 2005 season that ended early. The last game he pitched was in late July.

[metirish]

He pitched a lot of innings after those seasons.....clearly he made the correct decision?

[Benjamin Grimm]

It does seem that way. He said he never had any issues with his elbow.

I know less about Adam Wainwright's situation, but from what I've heard, it's similar. So not having the surgery may in fact turn out to be the better choice.

That's why I think he'll go that way. It sounds like his arm feels good to him, and he doesn't want to have major surgery when he's feeling okay. And Halladay's and Wainwright's experiences will help him justify that decision.

[G-Fafif]

From Heyman...

Mets star right-hander Matt Harvey is expected to try to avoid Tommy John elbow surgery after seeing noted sports doctor James Andrews on Monday. The diagnosis apparently was positive enough that Harvey is expected to try rehab for now, then begin a throwing program in 1-2 months. Surgery remains a possibility, depending on how the rehab and throwing go. Harvey was diagnosed by Mets doctors as having a partial tear of his right ulnar collateral ligament a few weeks ago. That does not appear to be in dispute, but while such a tear usually requires surgery, some pitchers have been able to pitch through such an injury. No details of Andrews' examination are known. The Mets announced Monday that they were planning to make an announcement Tuesday regarding Harvey's prognosis and protocol. Mets co-owner Jeff Wilpon and Harvey's agent, Scott Boras, declined comment. The very common Tommy John surgery is believed to be up to 90 percent effective with ligament tears in the elbow, but since the procedure isn't quite 100 percent and would surely cost him the 2014 season, Harvey has been said to be hoping to avoid surgery. He has also heard from Phillies star Roy Halladay shortly after his diagnosis, who was a rare pitcher to avoid the surgery after a similar diagnosis. Even if Harvey eventually needs surgery, he still would have time to try rehabbing the injury and be ready for the 2015 season, which is another consideration. Harvey had a 2.27 ERA in 178 1/3 innings for the Mets in 2013 and was a Cy Young candidate before he was sidelined.

[Edgy MD]

Wow!

[Vic Sage]

whatever he decides, with sound medical advice, is fine by me. It's his body.

Of course, if he holds off on the surgery but goes down early next season anyway, with the same issue, and THEN decides to have the surgery (leaving the team no chance to accommodate his absence in 2014, and costing them both 2014 and a chunk of 2015 too), i guess i'll be a little pissed.

i guess that's option #5:

Has no surgery, but doesn't pitch as well, then deteriorates, and then he DOES have surgery, and still never is the same.