Down the stretch they come (AL), 2013

[Frayed Knot]

The game of the night among contenders was in Cleveland.
- Up 3-2 on the woeful White Sox, closer Chris Perez came in for the save. But the leadoff HR he gave up blew the save, then a second one after two were out put them in danger of losing both the game and their lead over Texas (who, not surprisingly beat the Astros). Francona pulled Perez after another hit and needed two more relievers just to get out of the inning down by only one run.
But then with two outs and a runner on against ChiSox closer Addison Reed, 72 y/o Jason Giambi PH's a game-winning 2R HR.


Other than that, Baltimore lost and was eliminated - although what looked like maybe a chunk-of-next-season-lost injury to young star Manny Machado turns out to be only "minor" ligament damage with a winter recovery period.
KC lost to Seattle and is virtually out of it.
And the Yanx got steamrolled and are out except for the miracle scenario where they can tie for the 2nd WC spot if they win out and every other contender suddenly decides to go on a drinking binge and forfeit their remaining games.


TBR +1.0
CLE ---
TEX -1.0
KCR -4.0
MFY -5.0

* Texas's biggest problem is not just the one game back but the fact that today is their last one against Houston (Astros have lost 11 straight on their September tour through AL & NL contenders). They then finish with four against the improving Angels who at least have a pride-salvaging .500 record to shoot for.
* Indians have one more with Chicago then 4 with the Twins
* Rays have the Yanx twice more (almost as good as the Astros but not quite) then 3 with Toronto.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Still hoping Texas loses out and KC gets there. At least the Royals seem to want it.

[Frayed Knot]

The Royals finish with 4 against the ChiSox so it's always possible -- although their chances would have been better had they not gotten shutout/five-hit by three Mariners rookies last night.

[MFS62]

Frayed Knot wrote: But then with two outs and a runner on against ChiSox closer Addison Reed, 72 y/o Jason Giambi PH's a game-winning 2R HR.

Not quite 72, but at roughly 42 1/2 years old, he became the oldest player to ever hit a walkoff home run. Heard on ESPN Radio, so, consider the source.

Later

[Edgy MD]

I don't know how long Ron Washington lasts coming so close so often.

He's got one more year on his deal.

[HahnSolo]

Edgy MD wrote: I don't know how long Ron Washington lasts coming so close so often.

About 5 more days? I can't see him surviving another collapse.

[Guest Mets � Willets Point]

HahnSolo wrote: Edgy MD wrote: I don't know how long Ron Washington lasts coming so close so often. About 5 more days? I can't see him surviving another collapse.

The 2011 World Series with the team being one strike away from a championship in two different innings should be enough to kill an ordinary man.

[Fman99]

Mets � Willets Point wrote: HahnSolo wrote: Edgy MD wrote: I don't know how long Ron Washington lasts coming so close so often. About 5 more days? I can't see him surviving another collapse. The 2011 World Series with the team being one strike away from a championship in two different innings should be enough to kill an ordinary man.

Behold the power of bucketfuls of cocaine in Ron Washington's house.

[MFS62]

Edgy MD wrote: I don't know how long Ron Washington lasts coming so close so often. He's got one more year on his deal.

When he was a player, I always thought that one day he would play for the Mets. But he never did.
Sort of like Al Spangler.

Later

[Frayed Knot]

The 'Fun' scenario for this weekend involves a three-way tie at the end of Sunday and a Monday-Wednesday play-in game orgy.
To achieve that Tampa has to play one game worse than Cleveland who has to play one worse than Texas.

Ex: Tampa at 0-3; Cleveland at 1-2; Texas at 2-1
or the same teams at: 1-2; 2-1; 3-0

Assuming that each individual game outcome is a 50/50 proposition (not entirely accurate but much easier math) I put the three-way tie scenario at about a 3.5% chance.

Tampa is at Toronto this weekend - and are currently losing
Indians are winning in Minnesota
Texas is hosting the Angels and are currently winning.

[Gwreck]

With the Red Sox win and the Tigers loss, the pairings are set for the first round:

Wild Card at Red Sox
Tigers at Athletics

[Frayed Knot]

Gwreck wrote: With the Red Sox win and the Tigers loss, the pairings are set for the first round: Wild Card at Red Sox Tigers at Athletics

Is this correct? ... because if the A's win out and Boston loses both, the two teams would tie for the best record (97-63) and be even in their season series (3-3), but the A's would be one game better in intra-division which is (I believe) the first tie-breaker for determining home-field in such cases.




In the meantime, I figure the results of last night's games kicks the three-way tie scenario up to nearly a 10% shot (9.375%)
Tampa & Cleveland are currently tied so they have to match each other over the remaining two games at either 0-2 or 1-1 while Texas plays one game better (going 1-1 while the others are losing out or winning twice as the others are splitting).

[Frayed Knot]

NOW it's official (as the result of Oakland's loss today) that the BoSox have the #1 seed throughout the AL playoffs.

Elsewhere, though, it's chaos as it's suddenly crunch time in the Tampa/St Pete area on the heels of two straight losses to Toronto.

Eight possibilities remain with the three teams still fighting for the two WC spots.
- In seven of those scenarios, Cleveland gets in and the worst they can do is win a spot in the play-in game to get to the play-in game.
ONE of those eight (12.5% chance assuming all outcomes are 50/50) puts the AL WC into a three-way tie
Half of the possible outcomes result in some kind of tie.

CLE	TEX	TB	OUTCOME
W	W	W	CL = IN; TX & TB = TIE
W	W	L	TB = OUT
W	L	W	TEX = OUT
L	W	W	3 WAY TIE
W	L	L	CLE = IN; TX & TB = TIE
L	W	L	TB = OUT
L	L	W	TX = OUT
L	L	L	CLE = IN; TX & TB = TIE

Should be a fun afternoon.

[Frayed Knot]

Rays say that the rumors of their demise are greatly exaggerated - and emphasize that by scoring SIX in the top of the 1st.
Pressure now shifts to the stRangers.

[Frayed Knot]

Rays trying REALLY hard to blow this game and their season.
Up 6-0 before the Blue Jays even came to bat and later 7-0, it's 7-6 heading for the 9th and that's only with Tampa pitchers dancing out of bases-loaded deals in both the 7th & 8th with GiDPs.

[Frayed Knot]

Tampa hangs on.

Cleveland wins so they are in and the 3-way tie possibility is out.

Texas, currently leading by a run in the 7th, can tie TB for the final spot or lose and go home.