2013 IPP: Mike Baxter

[Benjamin Grimm]

What's an IPP? In 2011 we called it "Expectations of Eleven". In 2012 it was "You Make the Call". I figured it's time to make this a tradition, and to grant it a TLA. (Three-letter acronym.) IPP stands for "Individual Player Prediction".

What do you expect of Mike Baxter this year?

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I expect less of the same.

I am skeptical that Baxter can maintain his performance in a full-time kinda role. Plus, I think there are too many others who can do about what Baxter can or perhaps more, it's hard to see him really establishing such a role unless, you know, they have to disable Doodoo or something. That said it's difficult for a role player to be consistent too.

260/350/400 in 150 PAs, couple of big RBI doubles sustain him for awhile but "Downtown" Andrew Brown and Marlon "Free as a" Byrd usurp him.

[MFS62]

.265 - 6 - 22 in 200 AB as a platoon player until someone else takes over the position full time.

Later

[Vic Sage]

i can see him hitting .275 with decent OB% and some SBs, with doubles power, plus a solid glove. That's not a bad profile for a 4th-5th OFer. It's not his fault he's penciled in to start and will likely be overexposed with too much playing time. The kid from Whitestone would be a nice bench player, but will fail as a starter and then they'll bury or cut him.

[Benjamin Grimm]

What Vic said, although I hope they don't bury or cut him. I'd like to see him return to a reserve role next year when we (I hope!) have a better outfield.

[Edgy MD]

His breakthrough last year was reminiscent of Eric Valent, but I fear a Valentine crash and burn in year two. Did Valent even break camp with the Mets in 2005? I don't think so, as Willie seemed to go with a bench of all secondbasemen.

Anyhow, I fear it, but don't expect it. I think the chance of semi-regular starts will keep him fresher than Atrophied Eric. The shoulder concerns me. How about .262/.321/.429. Eight homers and 34 RBIs. Two walk-off pinch hits, one of them a homer.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

That sounds about right to me.

341 PA, 295 ABs, .258/.360/.422, 5 HR, 32 RBI, 45 R, 25 XBH

[DocTee]

.266/5/31

Relegated to bench by Independence Day.

[Lefty Specialist]

He's 28 already. I don't expect him to improve, and I imagine he'll eventually lose playing time to a Byrd/Cowgill/Reptar/Whoever platoon.

.250/4/20 in 200 AB's. Sorry, Whitestone.

[Edgy MD]

DocTee wrote: .266/5/31 Relegated to bench by Independence Day.

I imagine he'll be relegated to the bench by opening day.

[Guest vtmet]

I see a lot of speculation around the Mets fandom that Baxter is a given to be on the 25 man roster...but why? Based on his 74 plate appearance 2 months to begin last season? a nice guy, yes...a fan fav, yes...liked by Collins, yes...but...

.253 career average at age 28...
batted .222 after his "hot" 2 months last season...
has 1 career hit vs LHP...
hit .212 with a .653 OPS at Citifield (which was padded by walks)...
is not particularly gifted (in terms of speed, power or OF prowess)...is the ability to draw a walk vs RHP really that big of a MLB corner OFer attribute?

Am I missing something here?

I'm all for him making the team and having a decent MLB career...but I also thought that Ryan Church and Jeff Franceour had a chance of being decent Mets for awhile as well...

[Edgy MD]

Well, you're kind of cherry picking the downside. Last year was his most recent, and therefore is naturally given greatest weight. In 89 games last year, he got the job done. In 22 games the year before, he did the job as well, earning a 116 OPS+ over the two years. That may not guarantee him a job, but it certainly puts a guy in the front of the line. Putting his health on the line in a big spot and coming up big sure earns a guy his manager's benefit of the doubt, also.