MFY Off-Season/Pre-Season Circus

[Frayed Knot]

Not to obsess on this team too much, but we track them during the season and this winter looks to be a fascinating, or at least an active and interesting, off-season for them.

First the stalwarts:

ARod - 38 in mid-2013
Yeah they�d love to deal him but that�s not going to happen no matter how many rumors get floated.

Jeter - 39 in mid-2013
One year remaining on his deal plus a player option for 2014 at a reduced rate [$8mil down from $17]. If Jetes has another good season does he dare take the buyout $3mil and try to strike a new deal, or will Cashman�s tough stance in the last negotiation win out in the long run for a then 39 y/o coming off an injury?
These are all questions for next off-season but I thought I�d throw it in there anyway.

Teixeira - 33 opening week of 2013
Under contract thru 2016 and full N-T protection. IOW, like ARod, he's not going anywhere

Sabathia - 33 in mid-2013
Under contract rhru 2016 plus an option for �17 and full N-T protection.
This one has the added drama of a visit to Dr. James Andrews pending. Supposedly it�s just bone chips/spurs but it�s always that right up to the point where it�s something else (read: worse)



The Free Agents (or potential ones)

Cano - 30 y/o as of this week.
Has a $15mil option for 2013 which I�m sure the club will invoke.
The main question surrounding him is whether to L-T deal him or not and, if so, how much/long as the seemingly standard 10-year super-star deal will take him to age (doing the math ....) 40 !!
And was the club spooked by his horrid playoff performance(s)?

Ichiro - Just turned 39
Hit 60 and slugged 100 points higher in his half-season with NYY compared with what he was doing in Seattle. Yanx fans are going to want him back because they think their team needs to get more slappy/bunty/runny. But does mgmt get suckered into believing the short-term and possibly stadium/re-birth inspired improvement over the longer-term downward trend? Cashman et al may be arrogant & annoying at times but I don�t think they�re stupid. They like to try and get guys like this to sign for a role-players low-ball deal but Ichiro may feel like he�s above that and has earned better.

Mariano - 43 during the off-season
Ah yes, his latest contract ran out while he was rehabbing. He said, virtually as they were carrying him off the field, that any thoughts of retirement went out the window with the injury because he didn�t want to go out on that note. But will also be 43 and is coming off both major surgery and a season in which he threw just 8 innings.

which brings us to Raphael Soriano - 33 this winter
The guy Cashman didn�t want in the first place sucked at setting-up in 2011 and then thrived at closing in 2012. Got paid closer�s money in both cases, but now has a player�s opt-out where he can take one million bucks and run away to strike his own deal or take $14mil to stay and almost certainly sit behind Rivera in a role he neither liked nor was good at (whether you believe it was cause/effect or not). He probably won�t get $14/per anywhere else, but he will almost certainly get more than one year and the role he wants by playing the market.

Nick Swisher - 32 in a few weeks
Fan favorite turned fan target. Had not just a lousy post-season but has had lousy stretches in every October recently and if anyone sees that as cause-and-effect it�s Yanqui fans.
Made $10.5mil in 2012, the thought is that they�ll let him walk, but the interesting part comes in whether or not they offer him arbitration. The rules for that stuff changed with the last CBA to where, in order to get a draft pick for losing a FA, a player must be offered a contract that would get him into the top 125 in baseball, a figure thought to be around $13.5mil this winter. If they offer and he accepts they could probably live with it for one year unless they have some replacement in mind. If he doesn�t they at least get something in return (although the compensation isn�t as good as it used to be so that incentive is lessened as well).

Curtis Granderson - Turns 32 during ST
Has a $13mil option for �13 which would represent about a 30% increase over what he got in 2012 salary for striking out 180+ times. Of course he also hit 43 HRs but seems to be becoming a much more feast/famine type of player whose speed game suddenly disappeared as well. Still can play CF well enough and those players are tough to replace despite Yanx fans hopes that Brett Gardner can simply step right in.

Hiroki Kuroda - 38 during ST
Signed just a one-year deal ($10 mil) to come to NY in his first go-round of FAgency American Style but might want more this time coming off a good year and really all good years since coming to the US.

Russell Martin - Turns 30 in ST
His BA has been falling for five straight seasons but he walks a lot, has re-found his power at YSIII, and is a good-enough defensive catcher.
I suspect the Yanx will want to re-sign him but the question becomes how long and for how much and if there�ll be other suitors to bump that price up. Seems to me that he takes a beating back there even more than most other backstops so maybe that enters into the thinking.

Andy Pettitte - 41 in mid-2013
Retired once, sat out a year, came back and had a good run with almost no lead-in time, then broke his leg, then was pretty good again upon his return.
But are they going to bet on that holding up over a longer haul at his age? Seems both tempting and tempting fate. As part of the 'Core Four' he's MFY royalty but that didn't stop them from waving goodbye once already.

Raul Ibanez - 41 in mid-2013
Another 40+ y/o albeit one with a perfect swing for that stadium. Had a better first half than second but then became a playoff hero three seperate times. So how high do they bet on that repeating? He signed a low-base contract but one heavily laden with PA incentives which made it good both both sides. Should be strictly a DH these days (can�t throw at all) but he can�t be one full time when Jeter & ARod filled that role a combined 61 times this past year and now both are a year older and/or coming off broken ankles.


Minor Cogs

Derrick Lowe Turns 40 in mid-2013
I could see them re-upping him for a bullpen role and I don�t think he�ll have a lot of other options.

Pedro Feliciano - Turns 37 towards the end of next season
So you think they�ll want to pick up his $4.5mil option after paying him $4mil over each of the last two seasons to do nothing? Yeah, me either.

Freddie Garcia - 36
The kicker with a guy like him is not just that they had him but that they had to depend on him for large chunks of the season. I would have guessed he was 56

Andruw Jones - 36 as next season starts
Decent (meaning: high-power/low-BA) first half then ran out of steam. Doubt he�ll be back or matter much if he is.

Eric Chavez - 35 this off-season
Similar to Andruw but swings from the left side and serves as ARod insurance. Or maybe gets replaced by Nunez.

Edited October 23, 2012 by Guest

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Whatever happens, we should totally sign Feliciano.

[seawolf17]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Whatever happens, we should totally sign Feliciano.

Totally agree. He's destined to ONLY be a Met.

[Edgy MD]

But walk away with serious cash from multiple other organizations he hasn't played for.

[Ceetar]

I'm looking forward to the frequent Brett Favreian updates about whether or not Pettitte is playing or retiring.

[Frayed Knot]

Ceetar wrote: I'm looking forward to the frequent Brett Favreian updates about whether or not Pettitte is playing or retiring.

Maybe Suzyn Waldman can play the role of ESPN's Rachael Nichols and camp out with a YES camera crew on Andy's front lawn waiting for a decision.
"There's white smoke coming from Andy's chimney! Of all the dramatic .... "

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: Ceetar wrote: I'm looking forward to the frequent Brett Favreian updates about whether or not Pettitte is playing or retiring. Maybe Suzyn Waldman can play the role of ESPN's Rachael Nichols and camp out with a YES camera crew on Andy's front lawn waiting for a decision. "There's white smoke coming from Andy's chimney! Of all the dramatic .... "

I wouldn't put it past YES.

[Frayed Knot]

Sabathia has surgery to remove a bone spur in his throwing arm but nothing more serious than that

But suddenly Mariano Rivera isn't so sure about coming back next season despite his initial claims to "write in down in big letters".

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: Sabathia has surgery to remove a bone spur in his throwing arm but nothing more serious than that But suddenly Mariano Rivera isn't so sure about coming back next season despite his initial claims to "write in down in big letters".

He had to repair something at the end of.. last season? or the one before in his knee. warning signs perhaps.

I saw Cashman's comments on Rivera's comments spun both ways. Likely coming back, likely not.

[G-Fafif]

A-Rod, he whose feelings needed to be spared.

New York Yankees manager Joe Girardi had the team's public address announcer leave out Alex Rodriguez's name when Eric Chavez pinch-hit for the struggling slugger during the playoffs, according to a report by CBSSports.com. Announcements usually include both the pinch hitter and the player he is replacing in the lineup. But in this case, Rodriguez's name was not heard in the stadium. The move was made in the eighth inning of Game 1 of the American League Championship Series against the Detroit Tigers. Rodriguez was 0 for 3 with a strikeout when Girardi sent Chavez up to hit for him. According to CBSSports.com, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman confirmed that Girardi made the call to shield Rodriguez from further embarrassment. Despite being pinch-hit for, and even benched throughout the playoffs, Rodriguez spoke positively of his manager, saying Girardi had "built up a lot of equity with him." Rodriguez was a mere 3 for 25 in the postseason, which ended with the Yankees being swept by the Tigers in the ALCS. He especially struggled against right-handers, going hitless in 18 at-bats with 12 strikeouts.

[Edgy MD]

Seems like a lot of extra effort to be taken in the name of feelings when you're in the heat of the battle, no?

It suggests Girardi was either acting in premeditation or not really focusing on the game.

[Frayed Knot]

Raphael Soriano opts out of the $14mil option he had for the 2013 season with the Yanx, freeing him up to negotiate elsewhere (including with the Yanx). A somewhat risky move for him in that it'll be tough to match that $14/year even if it does open up the possibility of a multi-year deal coming off his excellent 2012.

You wonder if he's doing this because he believes Mariano [u:3uwljedv]Won't[/u:3uwljedv] come back -- thus giving him some pretty big leverage in negotiations in the Bronx and, in turn, elsewhere as well ...
or if he's doing this because he believes that Mariano Will come back -- knowing that he'd be demoted back to set-up man even though a ridiculously highly-paid one?

[Ceetar]

either way it's one less 'lock' roster spot for the Yankees and given the volatile nature of relievers, one more chance for them to wind up with a bad one.

[Edgy MD]

Oh, I think a set-up man leaving $14 million on the table is a break for the Yankees.

Is the difference between him and, say, Bobby Parnell that vast?

[Frayed Knot]

Edgy DC wrote: Is the difference between him and, say, Bobby Parnell that vast?

No, but the Yanquis don't operate on the same sort of logic as the rest of the league. Remember this is the crew that signed Soriano to a 3/35 deal in the first place (over the objections of their GM) strictly for the purpose of being a set-up man and insurance against Mariano getting old before his contract ended. As it turns out they didn't lose a step at the end of games this season after MR screwed up his knee in early May and may have lost the division without him or would have been forced to make a more desperate in-season move.

As it stands now they'll make some kind of move to replace him and if Rivera doesn't come back they're suddenly looking at David Robertson as the closer rather than as the 7th inning man. I think they believed he was the closer of the future two years ago but some of the shine came off him in 2012.

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: Edgy DC wrote: Is the difference between him and, say, Bobby Parnell that vast? No, but the Yanquis don't operate on the same sort of logic as the rest of the league. Remember this is the crew that signed Soriano to a 3/35 deal in the first place (over the objections of their GM) strictly for the purpose of being a set-up man and insurance against Mariano getting old before his contract ended. As it turns out they didn't lose a step at the end of games this season after MR screwed up his knee in early May and may have lost the division without him or would have been forced to make a more desperate in-season move. As it stands now they'll make some kind of move to replace him and if Rivera doesn't come back they're suddenly looking at David Robertson as the closer rather than as the 7th inning man. I think they believed he was the closer of the future two years ago but some of the shine came off him in 2012.

Jose Valverde is a free agent. On the team that beat them.

[Frayed Knot]

Yeah, that would be the team that beat them in spite of Valverde, not because of him. Soriano landing in Valverde's spot on the roster is a lot more likely than the other way around.

Soriano's agent btw, one S. Boras, is reportedly telling the Yanx that he can get 4yrs/$60 for his client.
Now we all know that young Scotty has shown a knack for extracting money from teams often at rates beyond what common sense would dictate. We also know that he's been known to throw some wild numbers in the air at times so his claim remains to be seen (I'm betting the under).
What will shirley happen is that the rejection by Soriano of his $14mil option allows the Yanx to put in the $13.3mil qualifying offer which would put Soriano into the category of FAs that would require a compensation pick to sign, something that would figure to reduce his attractiveness on the open market particularly as that pool of players will be much smaller this year as compared to the recent past.

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: Yeah, that would be the team that beat them in spite of Valverde, not because of him. Soriano landing in Valverde's spot on the roster is a lot more likely than the other way around. .

well yeah.

I'm not sure If I want to hope the Yankees overpay for a decent reliever and are serious about the luxury tax cap thingy, or if hoping they lose out by picking someone that implodes.

You just know they're going to sign Ramon Ramirez for his bounce back year.

[Edgy MD]

Ah, don't indulge Yankee fatalism. It's not that guys in decline suddenly get good when the Yankees sign them (cough! Pedro Feliciano, cough!), but rather that they have the resources to quickly bury folks when they don't.

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: Ah, don't indulge Yankee fatalism. It's not that guys in decline suddenly get good when the Yankees sign them (cough! Pedro Feliciano, cough!), but rather that they have the resources to quickly bury folks when they don't.

they sign enough hay to get the needles they need.

wonder if they can still afford to do that.

[Frayed Knot]

Edgy DC wrote: Ah, don't indulge Yankee fatalism. It's not that guys in decline suddenly get good when the Yankees sign them

Well sure they do, because the ones that don't are ... wait for it ... not true yanquis!!!!

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, well, all I care about is that they all collect true Yankee paychecks.

[Frayed Knot]

Yanx make FA-qualifying offers ($13.3 mil) to Rafael Soriano, and Swisher, or Kuroda.
Swisher and Soriano are expected to decline and seek long-term deal while the soon to be 38 y/o Kuroda might accept the one-year contract.
By offering the deals the Yanx can receive compensation if any of those players sign as a FA elsewhere.

[Frayed Knot]

After first hinting that 2012 would be his final year, then reversing himself as he was being carried off the field to say that it would not, then recently hinting at a reversal of that reversal to say that he was unsure, Mariano Rivera now informs the Yanx that they should ignore all the reversals and that he intends to play in 2013.

Of course he first has to get a contract to do so and it'll be interesting to see if the club just automatically reinstates him to the salary perch where he had been sitting or if they decide that a 43 y/o who hasn't pitched in a year, is coming off major surgery, and has made it plain that he intends to talk to no other teams means some Jeter-like hardball negotiations and less guaranteed cash are in order.

[Frayed Knot]

Kuroda re-ups with the Yanx on a one-year deal.
They'll still need to add some pitching, but this reduces their panic a bit although they'll be counting on him to repeat his good season as he turns age 38 during ST

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: Kuroda re-ups with the Yanx on a one-year deal. They'll still need to add some pitching, but this reduces their panic a bit although they'll be counting on him to repeat his good season as he turns age 38 during ST

Wonder if this plays in for Dickey at all, being of the same age and all.

anyway, I read today that if/when Stub Hub and MLB renew their agreement, the Yankees are probably going to opt out, in favor of something of their own making. I'm not sure what it means, but it feels extremely short sighted and head in the sandish.

[Frayed Knot]

The main difference between Kuroda & Dickey is that RA isn't a FA giving the Mets no immediate competition and several other options, including:
- extending him
- trading him
- hanging on to him for now with an eye towards a mid-2013 trade if condition dictate
- hang onto to him for all 2013 and risking that an open market deal a year from now will be easier in the long run


Cutting ties w/Stub Hub for something of their own making is simply a way to keep a piece of the second-hand ticket market.
The Cubs set one of these up years ago that was somehow ruled legal by [corrupt and/or incompetent] Illinois courts. Essentially the club simply "sells" a chunk of the tickets to the ticket arm of their operation (i.e. transfers it to themselves) which turns around and sells them at above-face prices.

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: The main difference between Kuroda & Dickey is that RA isn't a FA giving the Mets no immediate competition and several other options, including: - extending him - trading him - hanging on to him for now with an eye towards a mid-2013 trade if condition dictate - hang onto to him for all 2013 and risking that an open market deal a year from now will be easier in the long run Cutting ties w/Stub Hub for something of their own making is simply a way to keep a piece of the second-hand ticket market. The Cubs set one of these up years ago that was somehow ruled legal by [corrupt and/or incompetent] Illinois courts. Essentially the club simply "sells" a chunk of the tickets to the ticket arm of their operation (i.e. transfers it to themselves) which turns around and sells them at above-face prices.

i.e. what everyone accuses MLB teams of doing with Stub Hub, they'd actually be able to do. Does it work in Chicago? I could easily see that backfiring due to Stub Hub anyway. Yankees are bleeding attendance though, probably because of scalpers backing out. maybe the see a window to take over the scalping of those tickets, maybe they're full of hubris.

What I meant with Dickey is what his presumed value might be a year from now, if he didn't extend and wanted to play out the market.

[Fman99]

Frayed Knot wrote: The main difference between Kuroda & Dickey is that RA isn't a FA giving the Mets no immediate competition and several other options, including: - extending him - trading him - hanging on to him for now with an eye towards a mid-2013 trade if condition dictate - hang onto to him for all 2013 and risking that an open market deal a year from now will be easier in the long run Cutting ties w/Stub Hub for something of their own making is simply a way to keep a piece of the second-hand ticket market. The Cubs set one of these up years ago that was somehow ruled legal by [corrupt and/or incompetent] Illinois courts. Essentially the club simply "sells" a chunk of the tickets to the ticket arm of their operation (i.e. transfers it to themselves) which turns around and sells them at above-face prices.

Because Cubs fans aren't getting fucked enough just watching Cubs games.

[Edgy MD]

Has anybubs talked with A-Rod this winter?