The Cy Young Award Watch-v2012.NL

[Edgy MD]

I wonder how much the hype factor may squeeze out a few points for Strasburg. He won't win, certainly, but a few points in his pocket could swing things.

[batmagadanleadoff]

No Nats. I wouldn't give Strasburg a vote. And Gio Gonzalez wouldn't make my ballot either if the season ended last night. And I had a ballot to submit. Do the writers have the balls to give first place votes to a 12-9 pitcher? 'Cause Kershaw's looking about as good as anybody else.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: No Nats. I wouldn't give Strasburg a vote. And Gio Gonzalez wouldn't make my ballot either if the season ended last night. And I had a ballot to submit. Do the writers have the balls to give first place votes to a 12-9 pitcher? 'Cause Kershaw's looking about as good as anybody else.

I think that's the issue... that he's pitched as good as anybody else, and not better than anybody else, unlike Felix two years back.

[Frayed Knot]

3 earned for Gio tonight in the very 1st inning in Philly.
He actually retired the first two outs on just four pitches total but then lost his control and threw in a bases-clearing double (Darin Ruf) for good measure.
He then tossed up a blank in the 2nd but his pitch count has got to be way up there already.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Frayed Knot wrote: 3 earned for Gio tonight in the very 1st inning in Philly. He actually retired the first two outs on just four pitches total but then lost his control and threw in a bases-clearing double (Darin Ruf) for good measure. He then tossed up a blank in the 2nd but his pitch count has got to be way up there already.

After falling behind 3-1 in the 1st inning, Nats score the next five runs. 6-3 Nats after six and a half. Gio in line for his 21st Win -- a serious crimp in RA's triple crown bid.

http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=320927122&teams=washington-nationals-vs-philadelphia-phillies

[Frayed Knot]

In the TC bid yeah, but not so much in the CY bid.
A one win gap (assuming it stays there) isn't so big particularly when that one win is 21-v-20. Me thinks the gap between 20 & 19 is much "larger" in the heads of some voters than is any other single one-game span so RA, in a sense, got closer today even though both pitchers notched a 'W'
Both also had their ERAs rise today on account of 3 earned runs although Gio's was higher to start with and rose even more because he only went 6 innings vs RA's 7.2


Going to be an interesting vote as at least 5 starters (Gonzalez, Cueto, Dickey, Cain, Kershaw) have legit claims and all could get one or more 1st place votes, and then throw Kimbrel into the mix.

[batmagadanleadoff]

The RA Triple Crown Watch:

Kershaw scoreless through two; 4 K's
http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=320928119&teams=colorado-rockies-vs-los-angeles-dodgers

[u:16ygrxv7]ERA[/u:16ygrxv7]
Kershaw 2.65
Dickey 2.69

[u:16ygrxv7]K's[/u:16ygrxv7]
Dickey 222
Kershaw 215

[batmagadanleadoff]

The RA Triple Crown Watch:

Kershaw unscored on through four; 6 K's
http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=320928119&teams=colorado-rockies-vs-los-angeles-dodgers

[u:2dinqrk9]ERA[/u:2dinqrk9]
Kershaw 2.63
Dickey 2.69

[u:2dinqrk9]K's[/u:2dinqrk9]
Dickey 222
Kershaw 217

[batmagadanleadoff]

The RA Triple Crown Watch:

Kershaw unscored on through five; 8 K's
http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=320928119&teams=colorado-rockies-vs-los-angeles-dodgers

[u:91g4tu16]ERA[/u:91g4tu16]
Kershaw 2.62
Dickey 2.69

[u:91g4tu16]K's[/u:91g4tu16]
Dickey 222
Kershaw 219

[u:91g4tu16]Wins[/u:91g4tu16]
Gonzalez 21
Dickey 20

[batmagadanleadoff]

The RA Triple Crown Watch:

Kershaw unscored on through six; 8 K's; 87 pitches thrown
http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=320928119&teams=colorado-rockies-vs-los-angeles-dodgers

[u:2sj283x3]ERA[/u:2sj283x3]
Kershaw 2.60
Dickey 2.69

[u:2sj283x3]K's[/u:2sj283x3]
Dickey 222
Kershaw 219

[u:2sj283x3]Wins[/u:2sj283x3]
Gonzalez 21
Dickey 20

[batmagadanleadoff]

The RA Triple Crown Watch:

Kershaw unscored on through seven; 8 K's; 100 pitches thrown
http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=320928119&teams=colorado-rockies-vs-los-angeles-dodgers

[u:3906u7si]ERA[/u:3906u7si]
Kershaw 2.59
Dickey 2.69

[u:3906u7si]K's[/u:3906u7si]
Dickey 222
Kershaw 219

[u:3906u7si]Wins[/u:3906u7si]
Gonzalez 21
Dickey 20

[batmagadanleadoff]

The RA Triple Crown Watch:

Kershaw unscored on through eight; 10 K's; 113 pitches thrown
http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=320928119&teams=colorado-rockies-vs-los-angeles-dodgers

[u:31iuwrnu]ERA[/u:31iuwrnu]
Kershaw 2.58
Dickey 2.69

[u:31iuwrnu]K's[/u:31iuwrnu]
Dickey 222
Kershaw 221

[u:31iuwrnu]Wins[/u:31iuwrnu]
Gonzalez 21
Dickey 20

[Ceetar]

My guess is the incumbent will win it. (Wait, this isn't the politics thread?)

But maybe not. Dickey's late push may help. I wish Collins had let him finish some of the 8.1 and 8.2 games for more complete games, because I think that would've definitively pushed him over the top.

[soupcan]

So R.A. Is ahead of C.K. in Ws & Ks. The Dickmeister has one more start left and I'm guessing Kershaw is done.

I would think that if R.A. throws a nice game in his last start and gets the win, he ices it.

[batmagadanleadoff]

[batmagadanleadoff]

If the voters made their selections while pretending not to know the pitchers' won-loss records (not necessarily a bad approach, according to me) then Kershaw would probably win the Cy Young award in a unanimous landslide. If the season ended last night.

[batmagadanleadoff]

If Kershaw doesn't pitch another inning this season, Dickey would have to pitch nine and 2/3 innings without allowing an earned run in order to pass Kershaw in ERA.

[Guest Mets � Willets Point]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: If Kershaw doesn't pitch another inning this season, Dickey would have to pitch nine and 2/3 innings without allowing an earned run in order to pass Kershaw in ERA.

Luckily he's paired with an offense that can also go nine and 2/3 innings(or more) without getting a run to get him the extra inning.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Ceetar wrote: My guess is [Kershaw] the incumbent will win it. (Wait, this isn't the politics thread?)

I would agree with you if you're stating who should win the award. Kershaw leads the league in WHIP, ERA, is tops in K/9 among the big four candidates and is second in Opp. OPS, only to Gonzalez. (He's tops among the big four in a slew of other categories, too). You can't ask a pitcher to do more than to keep opposing batters off base, and to minimize the potential for damage when those batters do reach safely. And Kershaw was the best at that in the NL this season. Can't blame Kershaw if his team can't hold leads, or score enough to get him wins. But I don't think Kershaw wins it.

What I think will happen though, barring a major shakeup in the stats over this last week is that Kershaw won't get serious consideration for the top spot because of his low wins total. Neither will Cueto. Cueto's edge, as I see it, lies primarily in SABR stats that adjust for park factors, particularly esoteric ones that lack transparency. I don't see the voters relying primarily on those stats. That leaves Dickey and Gonzalez, and as between those two, Dickey wins convincingly. Unless Gonzalez receives strong extra credit because his teammates were better than Dickey's.

[batmagadanleadoff]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Ceetar wrote: My guess is [Kershaw] the incumbent will win it. (Wait, this isn't the politics thread?) I would agree with you if you're stating who should win the award. Kershaw leads the league in WHIP, ERA, is tops in K/9 among the big four candidates and is second in Opp. OPS, only to Gonzalez. (He's tops among the big four in a slew of other categories, too). You can't ask a pitcher to do more than to keep opposing batters off base, and to minimize the potential for damage when those batters do reach safely. And Kershaw was the best at that in the NL this season. Can't blame Kershaw if his team can't hold leads, or score enough to get him wins. But I don't think Kershaw wins it. What I think will happen though, barring a major shakeup in the stats over this last week is that Kershaw won't get serious consideration for the top spot because of his low wins total. Neither will Cueto. Cueto's edge, as I see it, lies primarily in SABR stats that adjust for park factors, particularly esoteric ones that lack transparency. I don't see the voters relying primarily on those stats. That leaves Dickey and Gonzalez, and as between those two, Dickey wins convincingly. Unless Gonzalez receives strong extra credit because his teammates were better than Dickey's.

I forgot that King Felix won his CYA with a 13-12 record. I thought he had about 16 or so wins. So now less reason to think that Kershaw can't win it with a 13-9 record. Of course, this year's NL race is much tighter, than AL.2010 and spread out among more candidates. I still say it'll be RA.

[batmagadanleadoff]

One more thing: Dickey received almost a full run per game more than Kershaw in offensive run support this season.

[Ceetar]

One more thing: Dickey received almost a full run per game more than Kershaw in offensive run support this season.

I wasn't differentiating because would/should. I think an argument for Kershaw or Dickey has plenty of merit. (and others as well)

The difference is so minute. Kershaw has the ERA and WHIP, but not by much. If the Dodgers defense is only fractionally better (And depending how comfortable you are with the measurement of course) that probably erases the difference. I think the IP matters too. Dickey's thrown more complete games and more innings. More shutouts too. Arguably he's had more dominating games, if that matters or not in terms of the award, I dunno.

It's ultimately going to come down to how the individual voters feel about the value of each point. If Dickey absolutely dominates tonight I think that almost clinches it for him though.

[Farmer Ted]

Tom Verducci's picks:


NL Cy Young Award
The ballot:

1. R.A. Dickey, Mets

2. Johnny Cueto, Reds

3. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

4. Gio Gonzalez, Nationals

5. Kris Medlen, Braves

The reason: Dickey leads the league in complete games, shutouts, innings, strikeouts and batters faced and barely trails Kershaw in ERA and Kershaw and Cain in WHIP. No one else has performed that kind of volume of work at that level. I am stupefied that some people have held against him the fluky nature of the knuckleball (irrelevant to this award) or the lack of meaningful games by the Mets (to pitch so well for such a poor team actually enhances his season.)

The stat: Dickey has won 77 percent of his decisions (20-6) while everybody else for the same club has won just 38 percent (53-81).

The prediction: Too close to call between Dickey and Kershaw. Cueto is severely underrated by most voters, who don't look hard enough at pitching his home games in a home run haven. (Cueto leads the league in adjusted ERA). Braves closer Craig Kimbrel will finish much higher on the overall ballot than mine, which is like valuing placekickers above quarterbacks. Medlen faced more than twice as many hitters as did Kimbrel.

[TransMonk]

Ver-douchey wrote: The stat: Dickey has won 77 percent of his decisions (20-6) while everybody else for the same club has won just 38 percent (53-81).

Yikes.

[Vic Sage]

A pitcher's winning % vs his team's W%.
I think that is an overlooked evaluation marker; to the extent "W"s tell us anything, i think this offers some insight when evaluating a particular season for a pitcher.

[Vic Sage]

i like Verducci's list.

[Farmer Ted]

The guy is missing a ligament for crissakes!

[Benjamin Grimm]

Okay, so the Triple Crown is out. He's not going to lead the league in wins, and ERA is unlikely, unless Kershaw gets rocked tomorrow. If the Dodgers are eliminated today, however, Kershaw may not pitch tomorrow which, if nothing else, would clinch the strikeout title for Dickey.

If Kershaw does pitch, he'll need 9 strikeouts to tie Dickey, and 10 to pass him. So R.A. may not end up with any of the big three titles.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Dodgers eliminated, Kershaw pitching anyway. Let's hope there are a lot of earned runs and few strikeouts.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

It seems like I've read/heard a few people with votes-- like Jayson Stark-- forming something like a groundswell of support for Kimbrel's "historic dominance"-- highest-ever seasonal K/9 for anyone pitching 50-plus innings-- in the Atlanta 'pen.