2013 OF options

[Mex17]

It's pretty clear to me that they really need to import at least two-thirds of a new outfield for next year (assuming LF will be a Duda/Bay platoon at least at the start). Maybe I can live with Nieuwenhuis platooning with a righty (I'll get to that later), but I think that would be far from ideal and a lot would have to go wrong this winter before that happens I would hope.

So, with that in mind, I took the liberty of identifying some potential guys that they can go for. The FA's are listed in order of preference (one list each for CF and RF), and the trade targets (which are purely speculative, obviously I don't know what all the other GM's are thinking) are in no particular order. . .

Oh, and unless I indicated otherwise, these guys are all righhanded bats. I think that this needs to be the priority, given their trouble against leftys this year.

Also, I'm not thinking as much with regard to who to give up in a trade yet (although I have a few ideas in mind. . .we can get to that if the conversation takes off). I'm just thinking of potential targets as a first step.

Free Agents:

CF:
Michael Bourn (Lefty, but more of a leadoff type. I was thinking more righthanded bat with pop insofar as for the middle of the order)
Shane Victorino (Switch)
B.J. Upton

RF:
Nick Swisher
Delmon Young (primarily a leftfielder though)

Trade Targets:

CF:
Jacoby Ellsbury (Lefty, same concept as Bourn. Red Sox look to be unloading)
Peter Bourjous (candidate to platoon with Kirk)
Coco Crisp (platoon with Kirk)
Drew Stubbs (platoon with Kirk)
Chris Young
Dexter Fowler (switch)

RF:
Jose Bautista (Toronto went nowhere this year. . .maybe they want to dump salary?)
Jeff Francoeur (we know what he is. . .can do better but can do worse)
Josh Willingham (see Delmon Young. . .primarily a leftfielder)
Corey Hart
Justin Upton (not totally speculative. . .I remember hearing scuttlebut that he was/is on the market)
Michael Cuddyer

Plan A for me is Bourn/Upton (or Bourn/Bautista if Bautista is actually available). Ellsbury/Swisher is second. Bourn/Willingham might not be bad either.

Discuss. . .

[Ceetar]

first off, I'm worried about over-compensating for the lefty thing. If Duda and Nieuwenhuis end up not being true major leaguers, we don't quite have a lefty problem anymore. Ike and Murphy and Thole, but I'm not sure that's worrisome, especially if they trade Murphy or do upgrade with Thole. (although I wouldn't rule out his year this year being concussion related)

Do we need two? maybe. ruling out Bay. anything we get from him is "good problem to have'. Personally I think you might keep Torres, although he's been so streaky, so let's just say '4th outfielder' along with Hairston who hopefully they resign.

so yeah, two. Duda and Nieuwenhuis probably float around, but having two other guys would help. I doubt you make two big free agent signings there though. so I suspect they'll bring in a second guy via trade and probably a lesser guy.

Justin Upton is the dream, I doubt it happens though.

B.J. doesn't seem worth what he's going to get, but I'd certainly take him at something reasonable though, he's a good age and plays good D and CF which I think is really important for next year.

iffy on Bourne. He's not excellent or anything. But he's speedy, plays good defense, will be 30. Wouldn't want to give him too big a contract either though, and it seems like he's going to get one.

Victorino will be 32, and is having his worst year of his career. seems on the down swing.

Swisher? ugh. He's really not that good, bolstered numbers by YSIII, really bad defensively.. Older..Pass.

Delmon Young seems like a prefect candidate to come to New York and Jeremy Burnitz it.

Michael Cuddyer, or Chris Young, or Jacoby Ellsbury I'd consider in various trades though.

i'm really not sold on this outfield market. McHugh, Familia and Murphy for Justin Upton? *Shrugs*

[smg58]

Before discussing free agency, I'd need to know how much spare change we have to work with, and whether that number will change if we extend Wright and/or Dickey.

I wouldn't pay full price on Justin Upton off this season, but I check in on him at least.

Willingham and Cuddyer were not put on the market in July and have team-friendly deals (especially Willingham). I wouldn't hold my breath.

I'd ideally like a leadoff hitter plus a slugger, but I'd sacrifice one for the glove of Bourjos if the price is right. The Angels could have sold very high on Bourjos this past offseason if they wanted to; instead he got off to a rough start, Trout got the call, and he was basically Wally Pipped. I think his numbers would look a lot better if he got regular ABs, but he can't command as much on the trade market now. There might be a buy-low opportunity there.

I think Duda should be traded to the AL, and Nieuwenhuis should be kept as a platoon starter. But that depends on what resources are available.

[Ceetar]

I think Bourjos is basically crap that had a good (not great) one year. But I guess if you could steal him low..

Justin Upton is very good, but he's basically got a free agent contract (I didn't realize that) so if they ARE looking to move him, they can't be demanding _that_ much. 10, 14, 14 basically, after only making 7 this year. So his price tag is only rising and he had a down year.

no way to know how much we have to spend. I guess you can figure a modest raise if you can sell it as a really good move to Fred or Jeff. I suspect that's where Alderson is.

[batmagadanleadoff]

I'll bet anything that the Mets'll suck doodyballs next year, just the same as this year, and it won't make a damn difference what oufielder (or outfielders) the Mets might get from outside the organization because, given the money Sandy'll have to spend, they'll be lucky to get another Andres Torres. Really. Who mentioned Bautista? Who here thinks the Mets are gonna pick up someone's $14M a year contract for a guy -- one guy -- about as old as Jason Bay? $14M for one player? Toto, I've a feeling we're still gonna spend like the team in Kansas City.

[Mex17]

So say that Bourn commands somewhere in the $9-10 million range as a FA after making I think around $7 million this year. Justin Upton makes $10 next year. . .that would be $20 million for two thirds of the outfield. In 2014 you get Bay off the books, so that more than makes up for Upton's uptick in salary. You still need to work out a trade for Upton, but for the moment that is slightly outside the scope of this conversation.

Granted you still have to lock up Wright and Dickey and get the bullpen fixed (K-Rod again at a reasonable rate??), but I think all of that is reasonable provided that we were told the truth about the Wilpons being back in the game once the Madoff stuff got cleared up and they got their minority investors.

What I am talking about is nowhere near what the Dodgers are doing and I feel should be totally within expectations for a New York team to be able to afford. If it cannot happen, then; a) we were lied to by Wilpon and Selig, they should trade Wright and Dickey this winter, and c) Wilpon should do the honorable thing and sell off to someone who can pay the damn bills!

[Ceetar]

Mex17 wrote: What I am talking about is nowhere near what the Dodgers are doing and I feel should be totally within expectations for a New York team to be able to afford. If it cannot happen, then; a) we were lied to by Wilpon and Selig, they should trade Wright and Dickey this winter, and c) Wilpon should do the honorable thing and sell off to someone who can pay the damn bills!

Probably shades of gray there. I doubt the Wilpons drastically increase payroll (or that Alderson will) without the revenue and winning to back it up. The Dodgers are in a pennant race. Virtually nothing is coming off the books _this_ year. (Torres, Pelfrey, Rauch I guess depending? That's probably enough to spend on the bullpen. Only need 2-3 guys really..) I'm not sure $20 for two players and then futzing with the bullpen is necessarily the way they go. I also don't think they go with two multi-year outfield contracts. But one? sure. Incremental increases. That's probably where the Mets are right now.

[Mex17]

Incremental increases = Wright and Dickey walk after 2013. Not good enough.

[Ceetar]

Mex17 wrote: Incremental increases = Wright and Dickey walk after 2013. Not good enough.

incremental increases in payroll, not talent.

they're probably not as far away as you think. And if you pay them now, which is possible, they're not going anywhere.

They may talk a big game, but the biggest think a club can do to "prove they're trying to win" is to give the player questioning it money.

[Mex17]

I think that they are going to want to see some things happen before they put their names on another contract. That's what I would do.

[Edgy MD]

They've made pretty clear that they intend to go after Wright and Dickey this off-season.

I went down this road with Ashie, but I think you one place too much stock in the notion that a player won't sign a big contract because he isn't seeing other money being thrown around.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Mex17 wrote: Incremental increases = Wright and Dickey walk after 2013. Not good enough.

Well, then, I suppose they'll walk. Because the spending hold is what's going to happen, according to every word spoken by Alderson about the subject-- and every single implication folded into those words-- over the last six months or so.

Edited August 27, 2012 by Guest

[Frayed Knot]

Mex17 wrote: So say that Bourn commands somewhere in the $9-10 million range as a FA after making I think around $7 million this year.

Bourn is a 29 y/o speedster and GG-caliber CFer who should be top 5 in MVP voting this winter coming up on probably his one and only chance at being a FA ... and you think he's signing for under $10mil?!?!?

[Mex17]

Frayed Knot wrote: Mex17 wrote: So say that Bourn commands somewhere in the $9-10 million range as a FA after making I think around $7 million this year. Bourn is a 29 y/o speedster and GG-caliber CFer who should be top 5 in MVP voting this winter coming up on probably his one and only chance at being a FA ... and you think he's signing for under $10mil?!?!?

Fine. If he commands more, ante up. I think that it makes baseball sense this time.

If they were not 7 games over .500 at one point this year and/or they actually had some outfield talent coming up (other than Kirk, who might be OK but was clearly exposed one time around the circuit, got sent down again, and promptly got injured and was not able to finish a second consecutive season) and/or if their two mid-career stars were not coming up against "stay or walk" time I would say stick with the austerity plan and wait it out until you can home grow a team. But, to me, every baseball indicator tells me that this winter is the time to pull some triggers. The only thing that might cause it not to happen is this "Wilpon is broke" stuff. I don't want to totally harp on a single point, but that should not be a factor. Either the guy can afford a baseball team in New York or he can't, it needs to be that simple.

[Mex17]

Unless you are that afraid that Bourn is going to transfigure into Vince Coleman, are you?

[Ceetar]

Mex17 wrote: Unless you are that afraid that Bourn is going to transfigure into Vince Coleman, are you?

I see him being a lot like Daniel Murphy. Quicker, better on defense at a premium position, but not as good a hitter with fewer XBH, though a few clear the wall. worth a lot of money and a commitment? no.

There is no way he's top 5 MVP this season. I'm not sure he should get any votes. He might not even be top 5 on his own team. And he's coming off what looks like a career year. why overpay for that?

I disagree that we _need_ speed on the 2013 Mets. I don't want slow guys, but substitute a little smart baserunning and good reads of baseballs on defense. I don't think it's ever wise to pay for speed, unless it's part of a total package and you're retaining your own guy. those things are better left to the rookies and younger guys, not the free agents.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Ceetar wrote: Mex17 wrote: Unless you are that afraid that Bourn is going to transfigure into Vince Coleman, are you? I see him being a lot like Daniel Murphy. Quicker, better on defense at a premium position, but not as good a hitter with fewer XBH, though a few clear the wall. worth a lot of money and a commitment? no.

So, to review... you see him as being a lot like Murphy, only nothing like Murphy?

If you're looking for a better Metly comparison, Bourn is, offensively, Angel Pagan-- gap power, similar contact/line-drive rates, speed to burn, and an OBP that's a LITTLE more BABIP-dependent than you'd like from a "leadoff guy." Only he's much better-- and consistently so-- in the field... and probably a little faster, too (at least, game-speed-wise). So the floor's a lot higher than Angel's (or, say, Torres').

And this "career" year he's having? He had virtually the same year last year. He might be a safer bet than you think.

Edited August 28, 2012 by Guest

[Gwreck]

Ceetar wrote: There is no way he's top 5 MVP this season. I'm not sure he should get any votes. He might not even be top 5 on his own team.

Bourn leads the Braves with 5.7 WAR. That's third in the national league, behind only David Wright (5.9) and Andrew McCutchen (5.8).

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Gwreck wrote: Ceetar wrote: There is no way he's top 5 MVP this season. I'm not sure he should get any votes. He might not even be top 5 on his own team. Bourn leads the Braves with 5.7 WAR. That's third in the national league, behind only David Wright (5.9) and Andrew McCutchen (5.8).

To be fair, a LOT of that value is in UZR/fielding.

To rebut myself, he IS pretty objectively awesome in center, each and every year-- which is to say, he passes the eye test of the Fangraphs/B-R glove numbers.

[Frayed Knot]

Ceetar wrote: I see [bourne as] being a lot like Daniel Murphy.

I'll take 'Players I couldn't imagine being more DIS-similar' for $600 Alex

[Ceetar]

Gwreck wrote: Ceetar wrote: There is no way he's top 5 MVP this season. I'm not sure he should get any votes. He might not even be top 5 on his own team. Bourn leads the Braves with 5.7 WAR. That's third in the national league, behind only David Wright (5.9) and Andrew McCutchen (5.8).

heavily heavily defense weighted. And I very much don't trust the defensive statistics. (not to say he's not good at it, just that it adds that much) Fangraphs had his last three Fld at 19.4, -6.4,17.2. Crazy fluctuation.

Actually, he's worse than Daniel Murphy, besides the defense. He's having a similar year to last year, yes, but with a couple more home runs, which you never count on translating to New York and year to year. He's got 9, 4 more than his previous career high in hitter-friendly Houston. This is like Daniel Murphy leading the team with 12 in 2009. outlier. He's got 1 more XBH than Murphy in 100 more PA, and some of those are speed bases whereas Murphy's aren't.

So what you're paying for is defense that might drop a bit with age. He's certainly a helpful piece to have (Daniel Murphy is a helpful piece to have) but I don't want to overpay for that. And the Mets need power and he provides basically none.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

With all due respect... if you think that Michael Bourn is inferior to Daniel Murphy in any baseball-playing way other than "ability to get white Met fans to buy green shirts with his name/number on the back," you're foockin' high, boyo.

Bourn is objectively better at walking than Murphy, and his on-base skills (walk rate/ground-ball rate) are both better than DM's AND getting better. He benefits from good BABIP numbers, yes, but he's also the rare kind of player-- namely, a speedy lefty-hitting one-- who can sustain such rates. The one-- ONE-- real area* where Murphy has the career edge-- isolated power-- he really doesn't have an edge in anymore; his isoP numbers have dropped steadily and precipitously in each of the last three years.

*Murphy also strikes out a lot less; but he does pop up/make weak contact a LOT more, it seems... so it more or less evens out

[Ceetar]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: With all due respect... if you think that Michael Bourn is inferior to Daniel Murphy in any baseball-playing way other than "ability to get white Met fans to buy green shirts with his name/number on the back," you're fucking high. Bourn is objectively better at walking than Murphy, and his on-base skills (walk rate/ground-ball rate) are both better than DM's AND getting better. He benefits from good BABIP numbers, yes, but he's also the rare kind of player-- namely, a speedy lefty-hitting one-- who can sustain such rates. The one-- ONE-- area where Murphy has the career edge-- isolated power-- he really doesn't have an edge in anymore; his isoP numbers have dropped steadily and precipitously in each of the last three years.

Murphy has a higher career OBP than Bourn. And has had a higher OPS in every season except this one. (which would be about equal at Bourn's career SLG w/o the flukey home run numbers)

Bourn's OBP last four years: .354, .341,.349,.352. Sure, he's better at getting on than Murphy _this year_ but Murphy still has the better career numbers. (You could toss out Bourn's early years as he was still learning the way it made sense to toss Reyes' early years when talking OBP, but Murphy's played half the time Bourn has so maybe Murphy takes more walks in the future too..) Sure, Bourn does actually walk more, but Murphy strikes out less and hits the ball harder.


The comparison is silly anyway, but I was just looking for an in house comparison for offensive production. I don't think you should pay for defense and speed, and his hitting doesn't add enough imo.

[metsmarathon]

the mets don't need power, they need production. and michael bourn produces.

if you only look at offensive production, he's at 3.4 oWAR (offensive WAR). it puts his at 13th in the NL. wright sits at 5th in the NL with 4.4 oWAR. (hey, look, a fair chunk of david's value is defense. but who needs defense, right?)

interstingly, and rather maddeningly, sitting tied with michael bourn at 3.4 oWAR is his near-analogue, angel pagan. ugh, what a fucking stinker of a trade that was.

daniel murphy sits at 48th in the NL with 1.8 oWAR. he's tied actually with scott hairston and ruben tejada.

ike davis leads the mets with 22 homers. he has plenty of power. but his production, this year, is horrible, at 0.3 oWAR (offensive component of WAR).

[Ceetar]

metsmarathon wrote: the mets don't need power, they need production. and michael bourn produces. if you only look at offensive production, he's at 3.4 oWAR (offensive WAR). it puts his at 13th in the NL. wright sits at 5th in the NL with 4.4 oWAR. (hey, look, a fair chunk of david's value is defense. but who needs defense, right?) interstingly, and rather maddeningly, sitting tied with michael bourn at 3.4 oWAR is his near-analogue, angel pagan. ugh, what a fucking stinker of a trade that was. daniel murphy sits at 48th in the NL with 1.8 oWAR. he's tied actually with scott hairston and ruben tejada. ike davis leads the mets with 22 homers. he has plenty of power. but his production, this year, is horrible, at 0.3 oWAR (offensive component of WAR).

True. Actually Ike Davis has gotten his OPS+ over 100, which is interesting at least.

Wright has had a very pedestrian second half unfortunately. I wouldn't be surprised if he was at 4 oWAR a month ago. sad.

hey, we need outfields and Pagan is a free agent right? I wasn't a real big fan of that trade, but I liked getting two players. and we still have those two players..who may or may not help next year. Ramirez has to be better right? this year being the oddity?

I'm not saying Bourn isn't productive, i'm saying he isn't more productive than Murphy. I don't want to overpay someone like that, just because they also play good defense. I don't want to be forced into a second-tier option because the Mets are desperate.

I think they do need power. They're still actually up there in OBP and even in runs scored. But they need to raise their slugging to better utilize that OBP. It was the same problem last year, and i thought Duda/Davis and maybe Torres and Murphy actually hitting a couple would help. (or Bay? naah) didn't work out that way.

[metsmarathon]

Ceetar wrote: I'm not saying Bourn isn't productive, i'm saying he isn't more productive than Murphy.

i think either you don't know what productive means, or you don't know what more means. 3.4 > 1.8. in fact, 3.4 is nearly double 1.8. michael bourn is nearly twice as productive as murphy. and that's only looking at the offensive component of their production.

Ceetar wrote: I think they do need power. They're still actually up there in OBP and even in runs scored. But they need to raise their slugging to better utilize that OBP. It was the same problem last year, and i thought Duda/Davis and maybe Torres and Murphy actually hitting a couple would help. (or Bay? naah) didn't work out that way.

the average NL team has scored 543 runs to date. the mets have scored 534. the average NL team has a 0.318 OBP, the mets have a 0.321 OBP. the average NL team has a 0.401 SLG, the mets have a 0.389 SLG.

it's not that the mets need more power this year, tehy need more production, be it in the form of homers or doubles, or hits or walks or stolen bases. when they were getting non-power production this year, tehy were doing fine. then the non-power production dropped off, and they did as well.

lucas duda had more home runs this year than last year, in nearly the same number of plate appearances. but his overall production was shit. ike davis, again, lots of power. overall production, shit.

the mets need more production. be it in the form of getting on base, or knocking hte ball over hte fence, tehy need more offensive production. this isn't fantasy, where you need home runs to balance out your stolen bases. if you can build a productive offense just by hitting a shit-ton of singles, walking a lot, and stealing a ton of bases, you do it. whatever works. hitting home runs helps you score runs. but so does getting on base and taking extra bases. the mets need to do either or both better next year. and michael bourn would help in that regard.

jose reyes was a rather productive player without hitting too many home runs, ya know.

[Ceetar]

I'm talking about Murphy the career player, and Bourn the career player mainly. And what to expect going forward. I would put my money on them playing closer to their career levels than their this year levels.

anyway.

I still think the Mets need power. I'm not necessarily advocating a 30 HR .310 OBP guy, but I think they need less players that hit 2 or less home runs. (Tejada, Thole, Torres, Murphy not far behind)

As you showed, the Mets run scored numbers and OBP numbers are roughly league average even after basically adding 10 games to the denominator and nothing to the numerator. Do we expect this 10 game stretch to be part of the Mets overall 2013 outlook? I expect those numbers to tick back up after they rebound from this anyway. But their slugging is still sub-par, or par at best. The Mets can get on base but they're not particularly fast as a team, don't run the bases well, and hit a lot of singles. There is a lot of value added by hitting one over the fence and capitalizing on those runners the Mets often strand by being more station to station than most. I'm not saying add power at the expense of these other things, but adding that power is a hole in the Mets offensive game that would be valuable to fill. More valuable than adding a guy that's good on defense or speedy and can steal bases or hit lefties or whatever other offensive holes we're looking at.

[batmagadanleadoff]

For tomorrow, we can discuss the similarities between Bryce Harper and Dan Murphy to decide whether Sandy Alderson should acquire the Nat rookie phenom.

[metsmarathon]

again, if hte mets are to add a 5WAR player next year to the outfield, i really don't give a rats ass if those 5 WAR come entirely from hitting home runs, or singles, or stealing bases, or defense, or if the only time he ever gets a hit is when he hits a ground rule double that bounces off the third base bag and into the visiting dugout but he does it often enough that it tallies 5 fucking WAR. i care about those 5 WAR. give me 5 WAR. i don't care where tehy come from, or how thye are tallied. give me 5 WAR.

and get rid of (or just don't play) a guy who isn't going to give me anything. like jason bay.

power hitters tally WAR with fewer hits than singles hitters or speedsters. so its easier to find a 5-WAR power hitter than another type of hitter. but those WAR are worth just the same. and those WAR will probably come cheaper if they are not tied to power numbers (market inefficiency, yay!). again, i don't care how hte player accumulates 5 WAR, i want 5 WAR. i'll take more, mind you. but i don't care how i take it. power. speed. defense. a mix of all three. i don't care. i want the production.

[metirish]

The Bourn Conundrum