IGT 4/26/2012 MIA @ NYM: Sweep Up Fish Entrails

[Edgy MD]

Mark Buehrle: $54 million through 2015.

[Edgy MD]

Jose Reyes a lot more than that.

[nymr83]

The marlins looked sloppy as shit out there this week, I'm not worried about them in the division race, I've upgraded my Mets projection to 3rd place!

[bmfc1]

I could listen to Howie's call of the game-winning hit for an hour.

[Edgy MD]

Those four walks would have been about a quarter of a season's worth for Ozzie Guillen.

[Ceetar]

bmfc1 wrote: I could listen to Howie's call of the game-winning hit for an hour.

I arrive 'home' and watched the hit on tv. someone find me an audio link of Howie! I listened to most of the 9th and he was great.

[metirish]

bmfc1 wrote: I could listen to Howie's call of the game-winning hit for an hour.

yep, was going to comment on Howie. I followed the game at work on MLB At Bat 12, punched out as Kirk went to bat....as I was walking to the car park I played the audio on the phone , got to here Howie's pbp......brilliant.

Listened to Post Game Extra with Josh, like his alot.

[Edgy MD]

Lewin was so excited he went out celebrating in his best suit.

[Fman99]

Edgy DC wrote: Lewin was so excited he went out celebrating in his best suit.

Then he got mad because John Ritter wasn't acting gay enough.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Nymr83 wrote: The marlins looked sloppy as shit out there this week, I'm not worried about them in the division race, I've upgraded my Mets projection to 3rd place!

The one thing tempering full erectile function over this club is the fact that after nearly every win I've been moved to remark, "My god, did [vanquished opponent] play like shit!"

[Frayed Knot]

Fun with odds

Using the generic odds of winning stats that BB-Ref (and other places) attach to each AB during the course of a game, let's follow along with the bottom of the 9th.
Heading into that half inning the Mets had an 18% chance of winning. Remember that this is a generic figure that would get assigned to any team down by a run based on scoring trends of the current era and not specific to Mets/Fish or to those due up vs fat Heath.

* Wright walks and the odds go up to 31%
* Duda grounds out moving Wright to 2nd and the odds drop slightly to 26% -- Sac Bunt proponents take note, the outcome you were hoping for just decreased your odds of winning (and yeah I know Lucas didn't bunt, but the result was the same)
* Davis walks and the odds tick up 6 points to 32% -- so the winning run is now on base yet the odds are essentially the same as when just the tying run was on, again showing the negative value of handing away outs when you're down to your last few.
* Thole walks and now we're up to 52% -- winning run now in scoring position, tying run can score on a non-hit
* Turner walks and we jump to 83% -- the fact that it's now tied means even a GiDP here sends it to extra innings and would only drop the win pct to 50%
* Hairston grounds into force at home, odds drop 18 points to 65% -- obviously there's no scoring on an out now but the odds still in our favor because we still have one AB that can prevent them from ever getting up
* Nieuwenhuis singles -- 100% + dog pile on the infield