Worst Defense? (split from Worst Mets pitching staff ever?)

[metsmarathon]

first base is the mets' best defensive position. per total zone, murphy, davis, and evans all saved 2 runs, with duda costing -1 runs. per 1200 innings or 135 games, murphy saves 5 runs, davis 7, and evans 8, with duda at -4.

per baseball info solutions, muprhy saved 6 runs, davis 2, evans 4, and duda -1. per 1200 innings or 135 games, murphy saves a whopping 16, davis 8, evans bests murphy with 17, and duda trails at -4.

total zone would rate our first base defense as 6th in the NL. baseball info solutions has it 1st. defensively, it would seem that murphy takes away much more than he giveth, eh?

still waiting for the worst. the shocking, appalling truth.

[Edgy MD]

Turd base: Wright, Turner, Murphy, Harris, Evans.

[metsmarathon]

if i average the two metrics together, then third base ties for worst. but it does not [crossout:p0aze9zc]lead[/crossout:p0aze9zc] trail either metric.

[Ceetar]

smg58 wrote: Defense might be the biggest issue, but it might be hard to address. Pagan is capable of a lot better, and if there's a chance his injuries slowed him down I would not be too quick to pull the plug on him. If Bay is driven out of town, it won't be because of his glove. Duda? I want his bat in the lineup, but he'll kill the Mets in right field. The infield had a big issue turning two, and perhaps that's something they ought to address. That leaves Wright, and what do you do with him?

I'm hopeful Pagan will be fine (and if he's not, he won't be here?) because the data does suggest that 2011 was the abberation. Bay's fine. Hopefully Duda will progress with some time.

Wright's usually okay, but he gets into streaks where he's just..off.

the turning two, especially with ball in play Pelfrey, is my biggest defensive concern, as it's seeming like Murphy's job to lose.

Although the catchers/pitchers seemed poor defensively too.

[Edgy MD]

I think the defense is the biggest issue. Hard to address without severely disrupting the offense.

[list:qg14ds8a][*:qg14ds8a]The coaching changes are a big start, but it's hard to figure how much is correctable at that level. I'd love to see some defensive whizzes on staff.[/*:m:qg14ds8a]
[*:qg14ds8a]If Reyes doesn't return, Rub�n Tejada has to be a big part of the mix at second.[/*:m:qg14ds8a]
[*:qg14ds8a]Then where does Daniel Murphy get his at-bats? Does moving the walls neutralize the defensive shortcomings at all?[/*:m:qg14ds8a]
[*:qg14ds8a]Is there any room for improvement with Thole or is he what he is? Let's get Stearns back![/*:m:qg14ds8a][/list:u:qg14ds8a]

[Edgy MD]

I mean does, yes.

If Reyes doesn't return, Tejada will spend his time at shortstop and modeling in the nude.

[Edgy MD]

Rare agreement by defensive measurement systems:

[list:356ld389][*:356ld389]Baseball Reference: -79 runs (30th)[/*:m:356ld389]
[*:356ld389]Fangraphs: -59.7 runs (30th)[/*:m:356ld389]
[*:356ld389]Fielding Bible: -37 runs (30th)[/*:m:356ld389]
[*:356ld389]Baseball Prospectus: -18.8 runs (30th)[/*:m:356ld389][/list:u:356ld389]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/911012-2012-mlb-offseason-new-york-mets-fielding-breakdown

[Edgy MD]

I see the Mets really looking to go small in centerfield --- find a guy who can help turn their defense around and make every pitcher better, but be offensively inept enough to save them $4 off of Angel Pagan. A solid number-eight hitter, nonetheless with some minor offensive potential.

I don't know who that guy is but Carlos Gomez comes to mind.

[Edgy MD]

Bill James says Mets suck up the middle.

So, are we ready to accept that Reyes is a large defensive burden? How much does/should that feed into the front office's challenge with regards to retaining him?

I think redturn2 is history.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I think Jose Jose gets a lot of credit for "playing good defense," when what they mean is "he has a great arm."

He's not so bad that you need to replace him by any stretch but a study that would show he doesn't get to every ball his peers passes the smell test with me.

[Ceetar]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I think Jose Jose gets a lot of credit for "playing good defense," when what they mean is "he has a great arm." He's not so bad that you need to replace him by any stretch but a study that would show he doesn't get to every ball his peers passes the smell test with me.

i strongly strongly disagree. He's definitely played Gold Glove defense, he just didn't play it as long this year as Tulo.

He's got a great arm, and he gets to more balls than the average SS, especially this past year. He seems to do pretty good on the double play, and he occasionally flubs it but he's really not frequently making errors.

[Edgy MD]

Jos�Jos�Jos� says "defend this":



Hard to get to every ball when you're naked and gorgeous, haters.

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: Hard to get to every ball when you're naked and gorgeous, haters.

some might say it's easier..

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Ceetar wrote: he gets to more balls than the average SS, especially this past year.

Can you show that?

[Edgy MD]

but he's really not frequently making errors.

if we've learned anything on defense, and if there's anything all defensive measurers agree on, it's to not be overly distracted by error totals.

The difference between 12 and 17 errors means little when the real difference between the same two players could be dozens of balls they get to or don't get to which count as hits.

[Ceetar]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Ceetar wrote: he gets to more balls than the average SS, especially this past year. Can you show that?

I've become increasing skeptical that defensive metrics can show anything, except somebody's math skills.

so no. I repeatedly watch him range far to his left or right to get balls in holes that looked like they were destined for the outfield, and then still manage to throw guys out.

I'll agree error totals don't mean much. But it suggests a certain surehandedness and comfort. Less errors can mean less desperate heaves to get a runner he knows is already safe.

(of course, he did make 18 errors)

Edited November 2, 2011 by Guest

[Frayed Knot]

Reyes's defense has always struck me as one where he's better on his feet than most others but not as good off them as some might expect.

We're long gotten used to it but I still hear out-of-town and network announcers express surprise at how big & tall he is, as if they still expect speedy SS to be wispy 5'9"-ish fellows. It's like his image is more Ozzie (Smith or Guillen) while his body-type is closer to ARod/Ripken, and that bigger body doesn't lend itself well to plays where one needs to hit the dirt and get back up. Bottom line being I think he loses out at getting to some of those types of plays while making up for it on plays where he can stay on his feet and cover ground.

IOW: not bad defense but at the same time short of GG ... and obviously a great arm.

Edited November 2, 2011 by Guest

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: Reyes's defense has always struck me as one where he's better on his feet than most others but not as good off them as some might expect. We're long gotten used to it but I still hear out-of-town and network announcers express surprise at how big & tall he is, as if they still expect speedy SS to be wispy 5'9"-ish fellows. It's like his image is more Ozzie (Smith or Guillen) while his body-type is closer to ARod/Ripken, and that bigger body doesn't lend itself well to plays where one needs to hit the dirt and get back up. Bottom line being I think he loses out at getting to some of those types of plays while making up for it on plays where he can stay on his feet and cover ground. IOW: not bad defense but at the same time short of GG.

Makes sense. He's filled out after the years too. I'd say he frequently makes GG plays, but perhaps not consistently over a full year. Often that's enough to actually get the award though.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

But you strongly disagree with a similar sentiment I wrote about three posts back.

[Ceetar]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: But you strongly disagree with a similar sentiment I wrote about three posts back.

maybe i misunderstood what you were saying in the first post. I read that as suggesting he's in the bottom segment, defensively.

I agree with you that there are certain range plays that maybe he doesn't quite get to that a wispier SS gets to (although I'd say he got b etter in 2011 at at least knocking those ones down), but I'm saying I think he's still GG caliber and certainly in the top handful of shortstops.

[batmagadanleadoff]

he gets to more balls than the average SS, especially this past year. Can you show that?

Me, I can't show that. Of the major league shortstops who played enough to qualify for the 2011 batting title, Jose Reyes ranks quite average at 11th (out of 22) in range factor. But take a look see who was 2011's worst. By far.



http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding/_/position/ss/order/true

[Ceetar]

that list basically flips upside down for Zone Rating. which is part of the problem.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Ceetar wrote: that list basically flips upside down for Zone Rating. which is part of the problem.

And how's that? (Though I did notice that Jeter is tops in ZR. Explain that one: Contrived tiny zone designed especially for Jeter? So that he could lead the league in something?)

[Ceetar]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Ceetar wrote: that list basically flips upside down for Zone Rating. which is part of the problem. And how's that? (Though I did notice that Jeter is tops in ZR. Explain that one)

Well, that's just it. Is Jeter a top SS because of that zone factor? which means more?

Jeter apparently fields all the balls in his defined zone. But he doesn't get a lot of Assists or Put Outs after fielding them? I don't watch every Yankees games, but this would seem to suggest to me that he fields a lot of balls but has no play? Or is it a factor of strikeout/flyball pitchers that he just doesn't have a lot to do?

After all, RF in this case is simply A+PO/9. This seems like a lot to do with the pitcher. in fact, a lot of fielding statistics seem to have a lot to do with the pitching staff the guy playing behind.

[batmagadanleadoff]

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/stats3.shtml

Based upon Baseball Almanac's definitions for Range factor and Zone Rating (Stats Inc.), I could explain how Jeter could score very high (highest actually) in ZR, yet score lowest in RF. Jeter, likely, is making an extremely high percentage of routine plays, but virtually no plays over and beyond the routine.

I can't, however, explain how Tulowitzki, as one example, could score so high in RF yet so low relative to the other SS's in ZR. Tulo's numbers indicate that he is making a high number of extraordinary plays but has extreme difficulty with the ordinary play. This makes no sense to me. Anyone here got any other ideas?

[batmagadanleadoff]

.

Edited November 2, 2011 by Guest

[batmagadanleadoff]

Ceetar wrote: Ceetar wrote: that list basically flips upside down for Zone Rating. which is part of the problem. And how's that? (Though I did notice that Jeter is tops in ZR. Explain that one) Well, that's just it. Is Jeter a top SS because of that zone factor? which means more? Jeter apparently fields all the balls in his defined zone. But he doesn't get a lot of Assists or Put Outs after fielding them? I don't watch every Yankees games, but this would seem to suggest to me that he fields a lot of balls but has no play? Or is it a factor of strikeout/flyball pitchers that he just doesn't have a lot to do? After all, RF in this case is simply A+PO/9. This seems like a lot to do with the pitcher. in fact, a lot of fielding statistics seem to have a lot to do with the pitching staff the guy playing behind.

Before this discussion spins out of control, let's organize ourselves. So now we're discussing two items: one - reconciling RF and ZR; and two - what does argument #1 have to do with your idea that in 2011, Reyes was a top, GG caliber fielding shortstop? How does your criticism or skepticism of ZR and RF support your argument for Reyes, other than for you to simply dismiss the numbers altogether and tell us that to your eyes, Reyes was GG in 2011?

[Ceetar]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: So now we're ddiscussing items: one - reconciling RF and ZR; and two - what does have to do with your idea that in 2011, Reyes was a top, GG caliber fielding shortstop? How does your criticism or skepticism of ZR and RF support your argument for Reyes?

This is a complicated question. For one, my eyes suggest that that Reyes was a top SS. I think he's been underrated defensively in the past as well, but for now, 2011. I'm not trying to argue that position, I'm trying to find arguments that support it. I'm aware my perception could be off. That's one of the things about sabermetrics, trying to mathematically analyze things beyond the things your eyes can lie to you about.

Still, if you watch most of the games, the stats should roughly support what you already suspect. You're not going to watch baseball all season and then find someone sabermetric argument for why Josh Hamilton sucks or Alex Cora is awesome.

But how do we truly measure fielding? Bill James seems to think Reyes+Turner cost the Mets like a run a week and was the worst such combo in the majors. That seems wrong.

I don't see how ZR and RF could disagree so much. Tulo made like no errors. Did he really make spectacular plays and then just flat out not touch a ball hit two feet to his left?


Perhaps the difference is in what defines a zone. Jeter made most of the plays hit in his zone, but there are a lot less of these. Tulo ranges outside his zone, to get A and PO on plays that normal SS don't get a chance on. But that's a sloppy way to measure it. Perharps Rockies pitchers just allow a lot more balls in play. perhaps his zone rating is lower because Rockies pitchers allow a lot of hard hit balls that he just can't get to, even though they're technically in his zone, while Jeter gobbles up soft grounders taht C.C. Sabathia makes guys hit into.

[Edgy MD]

Range factor is a very poor tool. Bill James invented it and then later dismissed it, with some degree of embarrassment.

[Vic Sage]

so what are the preferred defensive metrics of the SABR-gentsia these days?