Group Project KTE - LA Dodgers - July 4-7

[Frayed Knot]

A four-gamer with the broke and broken last place Dodgers.
37-48; 5th place NL West; 323 Runs Scored (3rd worst in NL) / 356 Runs Against (right about league avg)

Game 1 tonight 9:10 EDT
Chris Capuano faces Rubby de la Rosa (heh, heh, he said Rubby)
RdlR - a 22 y/o RHP - is making his 6th ML start and 9th appearance overall. 3-3; 4.41; 1.50 WHiP
He's been hung with a loss in each of his last 3 starts although in the last one he gave up just 1 run over 7 innings to the Twins.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

De Le Rosa's been on their top-20 for the last couple of years... but at the lower-to-mid levels.

Strikes out a bunch (11.7 K/9 in the minors, just under 9 per in the majors), walks a bunch-and-a-half (5.70 BB/9 over those 6 starts so far). Throws a fastball, cutter, slider and changeup-- the changeup and cutter profile above-average so far in the majors, with the other two profiling slightly below (SSS Alert!). Pitch profile's kind of inverted (since JF has a plus-plus fastball and decent slider, but iffy change/etc.), but his overall results look a little Familia-r, in fact (only with more ups-and-downs).

IOW... patience, Metbats. Tag anything in the middle of the plate, but foul off anything else until he puts you on.

[Edgy MD]

Signing vet catchers that have some cost, but can be reasonably expected to provide replacement-level-to-average production, isn't working out for the Dodgers. Rod Barajas and his puncher's power has been out with a sprained ankle for the last two weeks. He isn't expected back for the series.

You may think that's good for the Dodgers, as two weeks ago marks something close to the time Barajas started going oh-for-about-10-weeks for the Mets. But his replacement and fellow-journeyman, Dioner Navarro, has been a bloody awful hitter, logging in a .173 / .230 / .260 // .490 showing for the Blueboys, plus he can't read signs, and seems to know his current hitting capacity better than Don Mattingly. This is Dioner's second go-round with LA, having previously lost a starting job to Russell Martin. AAAA frequent-flyer A.J. Ellis has been modestly better (.235 / .381 / .235 // .616), and is looking like he's stealing the job. Stealing is about right.

Dioner Navarro is born-dodger, lower-case D, in that he's dodged the fates his whole adult life.

• He gets married in 2002 at 18, to a young woman who already has a kid. That's already a marriage with a ton of stats working against it, but the Navarros are doing just fine.
  
• On their first wedding anniversary, his wife suffered a cerebral aneurysm. She was given less than a 5% chance of surviving surgery, but she not only survived, but made a full and vigorous recovery. She's doing just five.
  
• A Tampa resident (having originally signed with the Yankees) he had the bubble good fortune of being signed by the hometown (Devil) Rays popped a few days later when a car clipped his SUV while it was packed with his family of four. The SUV filpped (as they do), but the Navarros are doing just fune.
  
• In 2008, during spring training, his still-young mother suffered (agh!) a cerebral aneurysm. He left camp to rush to her bedside, and she recovered. She's doign just fine.
  
• His son was born with a serious kidney ailment. A few surgeries down the road, I think he's donig better, too.

So when he comes to the plate, you may see a stooge that left his team (Devil Rays) after they removed him from their playoff roster, and you may see a guy in the midst of a terrible season. I see a fighter. From a family of fighters.



What's happenin' at first?

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

first baseman Janes (buh) Loney has rebounded strongly from the 210 hitting weakling we saw earlier this year. He makes 3.1 mills and is arbitration eligible, so might be on a new team in a couple weeks.

[Frayed Knot]

Ex-Cardinal (and Cub, and Rockie, and White Sock) Aaron (he can hit for) Miles has been handling most of the 2B duties this season (and occasionally 3B).
Hitting for a good average (.324) but it's mostly a phantom average in that he almost never walks (.341 OBA - MUCH lower walk rate than Reyes) and hits for power in Luis Castillo territory (.054 IsoP) as 63 of his 72 hits this season are singles.

[metirish]

Miguel Batista having been released by the Cardinals winds up in Buffalo according to some tweets.

[A Boy Named Seo]

SS is once again Rafael Furcal, who came off the DL yesterday (oblique). Got a hit, stole a base, and scored a run. He supplants Dee Gordon, a tiny lil, superfast sparkplug, who runs like Mays, but hits like shit. Bet Gordon gets a spot start or late-inning PR duties.

[bmfc1]

Their manager wasn't as good a player as Keith Hernandez, no matter what MFY fans may claim.

I was at Dodgers Stadium a year ago and loved it, despite the Mets getting shutout. It reminded me of Shea, but cleaner.

[G-Fafif]

For the second series this year, Fred Wilpon can finally get interested in some Mets baseball.

[Fman99]

Third base has been a black hole of suck in 2011, between an injured Casey Blake and a wildly overpaid and underperforming Juan Uribe (.205,4 HR, 24 RBIs). Ron Cey must be rolling over in his grave.

[Gwreck]

The other pitching matchups:

Tue: Pelfrey v. Ted Lilly (L)
Lilly was traded to the Dodgers at last year's deadline and then signed a 3 year extension this offseason (for $33M). Seems like a lot for a 35-year old pitcher but he's still a pretty reliable innings guy. 4.97 ERA and 1.29 WHIP; 106 H, 68 K, 18 BB in 96 innings this year. Gives up a lot of homers. Last faced the Mets in August 2009 when he pitched well against a truly atrocious lineup that included Pagan, Murphy, and a whole lot of players who are no longer Mets.

Wed: Niese v. Hiroki Kuroda ®
Kuroda is 6-9 but with a 2.90 ERA and respectable 1.21 WHIP. Effective fastball-slider pitcher. He's got about 5 career starts against the Mets but it felt like more because somehow I think I attended every one. He shut out the Mets for 8 innings last July in LA. Jason Bay hit a homer against him at Citi Field (!) in April 2010.

Thu: Gee v. Clayton Kershaw ®
Kershaw leads the NL in strikeouts and is a top 5 pitcher in IP, WHIP, Batting Average Against and Shutouts. 8-4 with a 3.23 ERA means he's not totally invincible but he's the best National League pitcher not employed by the Phillies. The only success the Mets have ever had against him was in May 2008 in what was Kershaw's second big league start.

[G-Fafif]

Jamey Carroll is still a pain in the ass.

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[Edgy MD]

Ted Lilly�s sore left elbow has �been off and on for a while� Aaron Gleeman Jul 5, 2011, 1:20 PM EDT Ted Lilly has allowed six runs in each of his last three starts and had his next turn in the rotation pushed back a day because of what Ken Gurnick of MLB.com calls �a tender left elbow.� And even while trying to downplay the injury�s impact on his recent performance Lilly told Gurnick that his elbow has �been off and on for a while.� He�s had to skip several between-start bullpen sessions, so another poor outing tonight against the Mets could force the Dodgers to shut him down in the hopes of actually letting him get past the elbow problems rather than simply continuing to pitch through them. Lilly has a 4.97 ERA overall, which would be his worst mark since 2005 and includes a 7.01 ERA since June 1. And the Dodgers still owe the 35-year-old left-hander $10.5 million in 2012 and $12 million in 2013.

The other side of the equation includes the fact that Jason Bay has never been able to touch Lilly.

[Ceetar]

bmfc1 wrote: Their manager wasn't as good a player as Keith Hernandez, no matter what MFY fans may claim. I was at Dodgers Stadium a year ago and loved it, despite the Mets getting shutout. It reminded me of Shea, but cleaner.

since you asked..

Got stuck in traffic (that's part of the experience right?) got to the game in the third. Had a horrible stomach ache but wolved down a dodger dog anyway. Was annoyed that the stadium was so regimented that I couldn't roam around it, confined to my level. Jason Phillips was playing first base. They were playing the Cardinals. Was mostly unimpressed with the place, though the view was very nice with the Think Blue in the background. Hung around a while, left after the 7th inning stretch.



I see Lilly as the kind of guy the Mets would end up with if they traded Pelfrey, which is why I don't think it's wise to trade Pelfrey. I expect the Mets to beat up on him a little though.

The Dodgers gave out Jelly Beans (Ronald Reagan's favorite treat) to fans after the fireworks yesterday.

Matt Kemp joins former mets Piazza (94, '96), and Sheffield '00, with 20 HR, 60 RBI and a .300 AVG prior to the All-Star Game

[Benjamin Grimm]

Pretty cool that he has a detachable elbow.