MLB Draft 2011

[Frayed Knot]

There's a tendency among some fans - built in part, I think, by the more widely touted NBA & NFL drafts - that top ten picks are supposed to instantly become perennial All-Stars and failure to do constitutes dud-hood.
Upton was I believe a #2 overall and Maybin a top-ten and one of the first HS players taken that year - both of which creates high expectations.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I confess: I want a big hitter. Sickels most recently has the Mets choosing between George Springer and Mikie Mahook.

Can you tell which is which?

[Frayed Knot]

That's gotta be Mahtook on the bottom but only because I can read his 'Tigers' (LSU) jersey.

From BP's Kevin Goldstein on those two:

- George Springer - UConn OF (who he has ranked 10th)
Pros: It's rare to find college players with Springer's kind of tools and athleticism. At 6-foot-3 and 200 pounds, he grabs your attention the second he walks off the bus, and his power, speed, and arm strength all earn 60-plus grades on the scouting scale.
Cons: Springer has plenty of holes in his swing, and there are questions about just how much he'll hit. He has reduced his strikeout rate significantly this spring, but he's still prone to chasing and often gets beat inside.

- Mikie Mahtook, OF, LSU (17th)
Pros: Mahtook is one of the few college hitters with a breakout season despite the new bats*. Good swing mechanics and a patient approach have him hitting .371/.482/.691 in 52 games for the Tigers, and his 13 home runs represent more than 40 percent of his team's total. He has average-to-plus power to all fields, but he's not just a slugger; he's a 50-55 runner who is playing center field and has a good arm.
Cons: Few think he can play an up-the-middle position in the big leagues, so Mahtook's bat will have to develop to profile as a corner outfielder. He's more of a guy with no real weaknesses than one with star-level tools.





* New regs on metal bats have offense significantly down in college as compared to recent years.

[Frayed Knot]

Baseball America projects Round 1

1. PIRATES: Danny Hultzen, lhp, Virginia.
2. MARINERS: Anthony Rendon, 3b, Rice.
3. DIAMONDBACKS: Dylan Bundy, rhp, Owasso (Okla.) HS.
4. ORIOLES: Trevor Bauer, rhp, UCLA.
5. ROYALS: Gerrit Cole, rhp, UCLA.
6. NATIONALS: Bubba Starling, of, Gardner-Edgerton HS, Gardner, Kan.
7. DIAMONDBACKS: Sonny Gray, rhp, Vanderbilt.
8. INDIANS: Jed Bradley, lhp, Georgia Tech.
9. CUBS: Archie Bradley, rhp, Broken Arrow (Okla.) HS.
10. PADRES: Matt Barnes, rhp, Connecticut.
11. ASTROS: Taylor Jungmann, rhp, Texas.
12. BREWERS: Javier Baez, ss, Arlington Country Day School, Jacksonville, Fla.
13. METS: Mikie Mahtook, of, Louisiana State.
14. MARLINS: Cory Spangenberg, 3b, Indian River (Fla.) JC.
15. BREWERS: Taylor Guerrieri, rhp, Spring Valley HS, Columbia, S.C.
16. DODGERS: Tyler Anderson, lhp, Oregon.
17. ANGELS: Francisco Lindor, ss, Monteverde (Fla.) Academy.
18. ATHLETICS: George Springer, of, Connecticut.
19. RED SOX: Josh Bell, of, Dallas Jesuit HS.
20. ROCKIES: C.J. Cron, 1b, Utah.
21. BLUE JAYS: Levi Michael, ss, North Carolina.
22. CARDINALS: Jose Fernandez, rhp, Alonso HS, Tampa.
23. NATIONALS: Alex Meyer, rhp, Kentucky.
24. RAYS: Kolten Wong, 2b, Hawaii.
25. PADRES: Dillon Howard, rhp, Searcy (Ark.) HS.
26. RED SOX: Austin Hedges, c, JSerra HS, San Juan Capistrano, Calif.
27. REDS: Robert Stephenson, rhp, Alhambra HS, Martinez, Calif.
28. BRAVES: Daniel Norris, lhp, Science Hill HS, Johnson City, Tenn.
29. GIANTS: Joe Ross, rhp, Bishop O'Dowd HS, Oakland.
30. TWINS: Sean Gilmartin, lhp, Florida State.
31. RAYS: Brian Goodwin, of, Miami-Dade JC.
32. RAYS: Henry Owens, lhp, Edison HS, Huntington Beach, Calif.
33. RANGERS: Blake Swihart, c, Cleveland HS, Rio Rancho, N.M.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Sons of Moms who watched soaps:

Taylor = 2
Dylan = 1
Cory = 1
Tyler = 1
Kolten = 1
Dillon = 1
Blake = 1

[ashie62]

Carl Crawford makes that play.

[ashie62]

Mike Mahtook...

[ashie62]

Edgy DC wrote: Sons of Moms who watched soaps: Taylor = 2 Dylan = 1 Cory = 1 Tyler = 1 Kolten = 1 Dillon = 1 Blake = 1

Not Bubba?

[Frayed Knot]

BP's Kevin Goldstein concocts his mock 1st round and includes with it a number of hints and notes (often conflicting) he's gathered on each team recently from various sources.


13. New York Mets: Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas
While many have assumed a safe college position player, their focus seems to be on pitching. Jungmann shouldn't be a difficult sign, and has the polish to breeze through the system and catch up to Matt Harvey and Juerys Familia's timetable.
- Jungman, Gray, and Barnes
- Mikie Mahtook
- Javier Baez/Levi Michael � in lead, like the SS thought
- Hearing nothing but pitching of late
- Go crazy and shock if there is a drop? Mixed.

[ashie62]

Pirates announce they are taking Gerrit Cole per ESPN.

[bmfc1]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: POP QUIZ: Assuming samples of all three are available-- and they will be-- which would YOU prefer the Mets snatch up? A) High-level college pitching (Jungmann, J. Bradley, Gray, Barnes) Toolsy college OF (Springer, Mahtook) C) Prep arm (A. Bradley, Guerrieri, Norris) D) Toolsy prep bat (Lindor, Baez, Swihart)

As long as they don't "reach" to fill a need, if all of the above are equally worthy of a first-round pick, I'd go with B and take Springer or Mahtook. They should get a bat that is two or three years away so that if the team is overhauled this fall, then they have another player that is ready to be a part of the resurgence.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'd be happy with A or B. Outfield and pitching are the two areas I think I'd most like to beef up. (I also wouldn't mind a hot catching prospect.)

[ashie62]

I'd like Sonny Gray if he slips.

[bmfc1]

Taylor the high school pitcher or Taylor the college pitcher?

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/25302/law-mets-eye-taylors-at-no-13

[Frayed Knot]

Ashie62 wrote: I'd like Sonny Gray if he slips.

Plus he sounds like a guy who'd make a great game show host if the baseball thing doesn't work out.

[ashie62]

Frayed Knot wrote: Ashie62 wrote: I'd like Sonny Gray if he slips. Plus he sounds like a guy who'd make a great game show host if the baseball thing doesn't work out.

Its time for a new incarnation of Wonderama.

[Frayed Knot]

(Irwin) Sonny Fox is still living apparently, but at 86 y/o is probably pretty gray.

[metirish]

Keith Law projects the Mets

The club's new mandate is to take pitching?

The Mets select 13th in the draft on Monday night, and also picked up a compensatory pick at No. 44 for losing Pedro Feliciano as a free agent to the Yankees. ESPN draft guru Keith Law projects the Mets taking Taylor Guerreri, a right-handed pitcher from Spring Valley High School in South Carolina. Law adds: The club's new mandate is to take pitching. Taylor Jungmann would be the choice over Guerrieri if he's available; Jed Bradley is another option. Preferred bats are still Levi Michael, Mikie Mahtook and Javier Baez. Here are possible selections. If you have ESPN Insider access, click here for a full first-round draft projection from Law. The draft begins at 7 p.m. Monday, with the first round and supplemental picks on the opening night. Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Spring Valley HS (S.C.) Law says: Guerrieri is one of the top prep arms in this year's draft, showing huge velocity with a knockout curveball and a good frame. I've had scouts tell me it's the best raw stuff of any high school pitcher in this draft, sitting 92-97 in most outings with a knockout breaking ball and a body to match. More in Insider here. Taylor Jungmann, RHP, University of Texas Law says: Jungmann is one of several three-year performers among college pitchers in this year's draft, and he does it while looking like he isn't even breaking a sweat. Jungmann can sit 91-93 but go back for 94-95 whenever he wants it, and he pairs it with a hammer curveball at 75-78 with two-plane break. More in Insider here. Jed Bradley, LHP, Georgia Tech Law says: Bradley has the size, arm strength, and left-handedness that scouts love to see, making him a clear first-rounder this year, while the lack of an average breaking ball is raising questions about his long-term ceiling. More in Insider here. Levi Michael, SS, University of North Carolina Law says: Michael has established himself as the best college shortstop in this year's draft, although the competition for that title wasn't very strong. But as a switch-hitter who can run and has shown he can handle the position he's almost certain to go in the first round. More in Insider here. Mikie Mahtook, OF, LSU Law says: Mahtook entered the year as a safe, high-probability college bat who could play up the middle and would hit enough to be an everyday guy. But in a year when new BBCOR bats have power numbers down all over the country he's ratcheted up his own power output, establishing himself as a five-tool player with some star potential. More in Insider here. Javier Baez, SS, Arlington Country Day, Jacksonville (Fla.). Law says: Baez has crazy bat speed and big future power potential, but needs to find a position and show a little more energy on the field. At the plate Baez unleashes on every pitch with a max-effort swing that, when he squares a ball up, produces loud, hard contact. He doesn't shorten up or ever use another approach beyond "swing with all you've got," and he can get too power-happy and start to swing uphill. More in Insider here.

also from Rubin

AdamRubinESPN On this date in 1973, the #Mets drafted Lee Mazzilli in the first round out of Brooklyn's Lincoln High School.

[metirish]

Interesting

Mets Look to Open Their Wallets

By BRIAN COSTA With their finances in distress, the Mets need to stay in the good graces of Major League Baseball commissioner Bud Selig. And yet, now more than ever, it's essential that they ignore Selig's wishes in one critical area: the amateur draft. For years, they have adhered closely to MLB recommendations on signing bonuses for draft picks, sometimes to the detriment of their farm system. But with the draft set to begin Monday, general manager Sandy Alderson said the Mets will have the flexibility to spend more than MLB would prefer, better known as spending over slot. The proof will be in the dollars they dole out to their draft picks, a figure that won't be known for a couple of months. But despite all their financial issues, the Mets appear poised to spend more aggressively in this draft than they have in years. "Obviously, there's a lot of hit and miss in the draft, but you do have to spend money on talent," Alderson said. "I don't expect to be over slot in every round�but we're going to be prepared to do that." The actual draft selections, which will be made over three days, cost nothing. Teams have until Aug. 15 to sign their picks. But money plays a role in teams' decisions on whom to draft. The more coveted players usually indicate to interested teams before the draft how much money they'd be looking for. Players expected to demand a high sum sometimes are selected later than talent alone would dictate. The Mets, who hold the 13th overall pick, will select players based on the recommendations of Paul DePodesta, their vice president of player development and amateur scouting. But scouting acumen must be met with the financial wherewithal to put it to use. "Teams very rarely in the first few rounds are going to take a player that they don't think they have a realistic chance to sign," said Jim Callis, executive editor of Baseball America. "If you're hoping to spend slot money and the guy wants more, you might have to walk away from it." The slotting system, in which MLB recommends a bonus figure for each pick, was first implemented in 2000. Alderson, who was baseball's executive vice president of baseball operations at the time, helped create it. The purpose was to curb the escalation of signing bonuses, which, in theory, would benefit all clubs. But because the slotting recommendations aren't part of the collective-bargaining agreement, teams aren't bound by them. Several big-market teams, most notably the Yankees and Red Sox, have all but ignored them, using their financial advantage to bolster their farm system. But the Mets have been an exception. They did go over slot to sign pitcher Matt Harvey, their first-round pick in 2010, to a $2.5 million bonus. But in general, they haven't spent aggressively on the draft. In the first 10 rounds of the 2010 draft, the Mets doled out $3.9 million to nine players. They spent 4% more than MLB recommended, which ranked 20th in the majors, according to Baseball America. The Yankees spent $5.1 million in the first 10 rounds, going 88% over slot. In the past five drafts combined, the Mets have spent roughly $20.6 million, less than all but one team in baseball, the Chicago White Sox. DePodesta still has a budget he must work within (he declined to disclose the figure). But he doesn't expect it to hamper his ability to find talent. "I don't know how our absolute spending will end up lining up," DePodesta said. "But I'll put it this way: On draft day, I think we're going into it with the idea that when our turn comes to pick in every round, we're going to take the guy that we think is the best player on the board and not worry so much about the signability portion of it. We're going to go after what we believe is talent." Spending more money on the draft would be, to some degree, a reallocation of resources for the Mets. For much of the past decade, the organization has valued past performance, doling out hundreds of millions of dollars to high-priced free agents. But the return on those investments hasn't been good. The Mets' major-league payroll is expected to drop substantially in 2012. And while much of that will represent cost-cutting, Alderson said some of that money will likely be reinvested in player development. "It's one big pie of spending," DePodesta said. "Because my focus right now is scouting, of course I'm going to push for a bigger signing-bonus budget and carve some out of other areas to do that. But the fact is, in order to do that, you have to make sacrifices."

[ashie62]

So Irish, in spite of your noble efforts, if we don't have insider, we're fucked?

[Frayed Knot]

It bears repeating, but the problem with the Mets reluctance to spend has NOT been with 1st round picks it's been with not taking chances on later round guys.
With a draft as deep as this one is supposed to be several good prospects are going to get to you at #13. Maybe someone with big $$ demands is still around at #44 and then it becomes a question of whether you think it's worth paying him 1st round money too.
Later on there might be HS players who, while raw, are worth taking a chance on over-paying. Those are the kinds of picks the Mets have not been taking due to their adherence to the slotting system.

[Guest Edgy DC]

And interestingly, one of the best examples of that was Pedro Beato, a guy they generously (generous to other baseball teams, that is) held the line on.

The Mets got ripped for skinflintiness last year, but most other teams spent their money before the Mets even picked.

Haters are nuts. I say the team is in a great position to build a Navarone-storming-quality force for now and the future.

[Frayed Knot]

Beato came under the (no-longer existing) 'draft-and-follow' rules where you could draft a HS kid and watch his progress through a year of JuCo then choose to sign him (or not) until a week before the following draft. The since-imposed hard August 15th deadline for all draftees did away with that option.

As a HS kid who did well in his JuCo year, the Mets offered the 17th round pick the equivalent of 2nd round money but Beato wanted 1st round cash and when neither side would give in he wound up going back into the draft where he was picked by Baltimore (and wound up getting just about the midway point between what he wanted and what the Mets were offering). Whether the Mets held the line on their offer because they thought that's all he was worth or if they were pressured by MLB into not going any higher will probably never be known for sure and I suppose either side of the 'Mets are/aren't cheap' debate can point to that case as evidence; either they were right to hold the line seeing as how six years later he's still just a middle reliever, or that they were fortunate to get back the player they shouldn't have lost over a measly 700K in the first place.



And, yeah, in general trying to judge a draft by total amount of dollars spent is a pretty shallow bit of analysis. Where you pick determines how much gets spent more often than does some sort of philosophy (two drafts ago the Mets didn't pick until #78). It's true that the Mets have rarely rocked Bud's boat on the whole unofficial cap situation - and almost certainly to their own detriment at times - but there's also a lot of misinformation out there as to exactly how it affects who they draft.

[Frayed Knot]

btw, the biggest name on the bonus-busting front this year could be Irving, Texas HS OF Josh Bell. Considered by many to be the best HS bat this year, Bell has written a letter to MLB asking that he NOT be drafted as he has every intention of attending U-Texas in the fall.
Whether he actually means that or if it's merely a ploy to push his selection downward towards a team that is willing to pay him big bucks to forego college remains to be seen. He wouldn't be the first to declare no interest in the draft only to sign later on.

[ashie62]

Didn't the Mets spend a million half on Kazmir?

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I wonder if Damien Magnifico's price has dropped.

[MFS62]

Every time I hear "toolsy high school hitter" I think "Shawn Abner".
I know. I know. I should be thinking "Darryl Strawberry".

But still ...

Later

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Edgy DC wrote: And interestingly, one of the best examples of that was Pedro Beato, a guy they generously (generous to other baseball teams, that is) held the line on. The Mets got ripped for skinflintiness last year, but most other teams spent their money before the Mets even picked. Haters are nuts. I say the team is in a great position to build a Navarone-storming-quality force for now and the future.

Last year, they dug a little and got-- among others-- Peavey and Goeddel for above-slot. IIRC, 2009's where they got semi-legitmately killed (Magnifico et. al. in the middle rounds), here and elsewhere.

And I agree. It starts with going with a running buddy for Familia and Harvey, and following that up with a toolsy HSer who you overwhelm with your professionalism, commitment to building something here, a show of "The Book of Mormon," and lots of cash.

Team Jungmann/Bell-or-Baez, baby.

[Ceetar]

I feel almost bad for some of the mock drafters sometimes. They put all this work into guessing which order guys are going into just to try to inform people days earlier which guys might end up in their systems and not show up in the majors for years anyway. And most of that work is rendered useless or just plain wrong come draft time.

[A Boy Named Seo]

We had some killer draft threads here in years passed. Love all the kids with zany names and the homo-erotic scouting reports. MLB.tv/.com locked & loaded!

#Team_Jungmann