2nd Base 2011: Who do you PREDICT? (Revisited)

[Benjamin Grimm]

Back in September, I asked us to predict who we thought would be the 2011 Mets second baseman.

21 votes were cast, and the winner was Ruben Tejada with 8, followed by Murphy 6, Castillo 6, and Turner 1.

Now that we're a few weeks away from finding out, let's try this again. Remember, this thread is for who you PREDICT. I'll post another one for you to proclaim your rooting interest.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

It's been open season on Limpy for a week now... and it seems like that's for a reason other than "late" arrival.

I don't see him outcharming or outperforming anyone enough-- barring freak injury-- to undecide the brain trust's minds.

OE: Murphy-Emaus.

Edited February 23, 2011 by Guest

[Benjamin Grimm]

I voted for the Murphy-Emaus platoon.

[Ceetar]

I teeter between Murphy and Castillo on this. I picked Castillo based on Murphy not really having played 2B for Collins yet.

I think it's unlikely that they'll chose a platoon over Luis though. I don't seem them starting the season that way.

I think if Emaus looks good enough to play, they'll let him play.

I think they may be hoping for a righty.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

As if DosManos needed another ill portent.

Asked if a No. 1 factor existed in determining who wins the second base job between Brad Emaus, Daniel Murphy, Luis Castillo and Justin Turner, Terry Collins again stated offense is the priority, which would not seem to bode well for Castillo. �Second base, to me, has become an enormous offensive position,� Collins said. �Why? I�m not really sure, except some of the guys that have been playing there recently [Chase Utley, Dan Uggla] have put up huge numbers at second. But it�s become an offensive position, so to me that�s a big piece to the puzzle, especially when you�ve got that guy [ike Davis] playing first base that can eat up so much ground over there. It helps out."

[Ceetar]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: As if DosManos needed another ill portent. Asked if a No. 1 factor existed in determining who wins the second base job between Brad Emaus, Daniel Murphy, Luis Castillo and Justin Turner, Terry Collins again stated offense is the priority, which would not seem to bode well for Castillo. �Second base, to me, has become an enormous offensive position,� Collins said. �Why? I�m not really sure, except some of the guys that have been playing there recently [Chase Utley, Dan Uggla] have put up huge numbers at second. But it�s become an offensive position, so to me that�s a big piece to the puzzle, especially when you�ve got that guy [ike Davis] playing first base that can eat up so much ground over there. It helps out."

Depends how they value OBP. Unless Collins means he wants a guy who can hit it out. I don't really think that the Mets are necessarily lacking in that regard (if Bay regresses anyway) so maybe that OBP helps Castillo in the race, whereas his age on defense doesn't hurt as much? (Not that I'd classify any of the contestants as a wiz at second..)

[ashie62]

Murphy,every effing day.

[Guest Edgy DC]

All of the above, plus Hu and Satin and probably someone else. Murphy will play opening day.

[Benjamin Grimm]

David Waldstein, in the New York Times, says:

PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. � After two weeks of exhibition games, it appears that the 35-year-old Luis Castillo, in the final season of his often-belittled four-year, $24 million contract, has the early lead for the Mets� second-base job. He is in front somewhat by default, having nosed ahead of a modest group of players who have not stood out in any particular way this spring training.

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: David Waldstein, in the New York Times, says: PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. � After two weeks of exhibition games, it appears that the 35-year-old Luis Castillo, in the final season of his often-belittled four-year, $24 million contract, has the early lead for the Mets� second-base job. He is in front somewhat by default, having nosed ahead of a modest group of players who have not stood out in any particular way this spring training.

I think there are reports out there for Emaus and for Murphy too as being 'leading'.

[HahnSolo]

Just started another thread about a Harper article that suggest Luis Hernandez(!) has a shot.

[smg58]

It's still to early to tell. Emaus has been getting fewer ABs than the others, which might mean they want to look at the other guys first and rule one or two out before giving him a closer look, or it might not. Castillo's game yesterday was the first big game that any of them have really had, but I figure that as the "known" commodity his spring performance will count the least. Not that I think he doesn't have a chance, but I think the others will be judged on whether they can do better than what we can reasonably expect from Castillo based on past experience. (And if we could reasonably expect much, we wouldn't be having this discussion.)

[Benjamin Grimm]

Is a dark horse emerging?

Mets to tab unheralded Hernandez for second base By MIKE PUMA Last Updated: 9:40 AM, March 15, 2011 Posted: 1:46 AM, March 15, 2011 PORT ST. LUCIE -- The Mets are ready to shred their final four bracket and chart a different course at second base. Disenchanted with what he has seen from Luis Castillo, Daniel Murphy, Brad Emaus and Justin Turner this spring, manager Terry Collins is preparing to name Luis Hernandez the starter at second base, a source with direct knowledge of Collins' plans told The Post yesterday. The move will be contingent upon Collins convincing the front office to find roster space for Hernandez. The 26-year-old Hernandez played 17 games for the Mets last year before breaking a toe on Sept. 18. He has appeared in six games this spring and is 5-for-12 (.417) at the plate. Hernandez began camp on the periphery of the second-base derby and has gained traction almost by default. Though Castillo is having a solid spring offensively, the source said Castillo's limited defensive range is problematic for the new regime. The Mets still do not view Murphy as an everyday second baseman, and many in the organization are not convinced Emaus and Turner are major-league players. Hernandez is considered the best athlete and defensive player among the group. As the organization's minor league field coordinator last season, Collins saw plenty of Hernandez. The 35-year-old Castillo, who is owed $6 million this season, could be dumped by the end of the week. On Sunday, Castillo told The Post he has already informed Collins he wants to be released if he isn't going to be the starting second baseman. "I know I can still play," Castillo said. But Collins' plan to install Hernandez at second base could hit a snag if the front office insists upon keeping Emaus, a Rule 5 selection last winter. Emaus must remain on the Mets' 25-man roster for the entire season or be offered back to the Blue Jays, who left him unprotected. If Collins is told he must carry Emaus, the Mets would then likely have to decide between Hernandez and Murphy for one roster spot. Murphy is viewed as a solid lefty bat off the bench and utility player who could occasionally start at second or third base. Emaus can also play third base. Collins, the source said, is confident he will have final say in the matter after hearing opinions from his coaching staff, general manager Sandy Alderson and special adviser J.P. Ricciardi, among others. But Ricciardi was also the driving force behind selecting Emaus in the Rule 5 draft and could provide a roadblock to Hernandez's ascent. The Mets signed Hernandez before spring training last year -- he was released by the Royals in January 2010 -- and summoned him to the majors in August after he had split time between Double-A Binghamton and Triple-A Buffalo. In 265 career at-bats with the Orioles, Royals and Mets, he is a .245 hitter with three homers and 20 RBIs. Hernandez's career highlight came in his final at-bat of last season. After fouling a pitch off his right foot and breaking his big toe, he homered against Atlanta's Tim Hudson.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Fuckin' Mike Puma with the scoop.

Seriously, though, hasn't the guy had like eight at-bats?

[Benjamin Grimm]

Twelve!

He has appeared in six games this spring and is 5-for-12 (.417) at the plate.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Mets Leaning Toward Dark Horse For Second Base by Rob Neyer � Mar 15, 2011 10:30 AM EDT Who's going to play second base for the New York Mets on Opening Day? According to Mike Puma (via the Post), The Mets are ready to shred their final four bracket and chart a different course at second base. How different? Apparently the manager's favorite candidate wasn't a candidate two or three weeks ago ... Disenchanted with what he has seen from Luis Castillo, Daniel Murphy, Brad Emaus and Justin Turner this spring, manager Terry Collins is preparing to name Luis Hernandez the starter at second base, a source with direct knowledge of Collins' plans told The Post yesterday. The move will be contingent upon Collins convincing the front office to find roster space for Hernandez. It's hard to exaggerate just how much Hernandez can't hit. In 120 major-league games (290 plate appearances), Hernandez has a .245/.286/.298 line. In 187 Triple-A games, he's got a .247/.286/.319 line. And he fared little better in the lower levels, either. This is just who Luis Hernandez is: a fine fielder (we're assuming) who couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat. You can live with a shortstop like that, maybe. But second base is a little tougher. If Hernandez does win the job, I will consider him something of a symbol. There are new sheriffs in town, and for a while they're just going to walk around, making sure everyone understands things are different. I can promise you, with metaphysical certitude, that by the time the Mets do get serious about winning baseball games, Luis Hernandez will be a vague memory.

[Guest sharpie]

Making Luis Hernandez the starting second baseman reminds me of the Mets making Anderson Hernandez the starting second baseman.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Well, Anderson was coming up fresh out of the minors. Luis is more of a bubble journeyman.

I think Puma is really jumping the gun here, and this is the furthest thing from a done deal.

[Frayed Knot]

Certainly not a done deal, but I also have no problem if this turns out to be the case.
Not that I've got any particular reason to pine for Luis Hernandez, but the biggest mistake fans tend to make about this time of year leading up to opening day assignments is to act as if they're somehow chiseled in stone for the remainder of the season. If naming Hernandez allows them to cut Castillo and maybe buy more time to work out solutions for Emaus, Murphy, Turner, Harris or whoever than it's not a bad thing.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I was thinking pretty much the same thing. If Luis Hernandez wins the job, he'll only keep it for as long as he demonstrates that he's the best option. Emaus may end up back in Toronto's organization, but there will still be Murphy and Turner and Tejada and Valdespin and others.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Yes, but naming Hernandez also means they're either cutting Emaus after seeing him for three weeks of part-time duty OR going short in another area while carrying three middle-infield backups.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Tracksuit to the rescue.

From talking to people today, definitely do no[t] get sense TC has decided on Hernandez for 2B. He's in mix, but this is a fluid situation. about 2 hours ago via Twitter for BlackBerry� .SurfingTheMets Andy Martino

[MFS62]

I posted in another thread about Lius hitting a homer and limping around the bases after breaking his foot. You can't just look at numbers.
As I mentioned, anybody who does that can play for my team any time.

If Jeter had done that, forget the Hall of Fame. Some NY writers would be pushing for his inclusion on Mt. Rushmore.

We hear/ read things about how TC has/ hasn't come out in favor of Luis. Those are sometimes followed by things like "Sandy and his front office are numbers guys".

Alderson is an ex-Marine. While Luis may not fit Sandy's statistical model,I feel he certainly fits his model for the kind of player he would want, too.

Later

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

MFS62 wrote: While Luis may not fit Sandy's statistical model,I feel he certainly fits his model for the kind of player he would want, too.

Guys who can't hit, you mean? Over 290 career PAs, he's put up a sub-Tejadan .245/.286/.298 slash-line with okay speed and a decent glove. More telling? He's put up pretty much the same performance (.255/.302/.331) over 3000-plus minor-league PAs.

It was a great moment, and I went around that afternoon/evening blabbing about it to people who probably didn't care, that's how much I liked it. It's probably instructive about how much to weight said moment in evaluating LH to remember that the Mets lost that game. It's probably also instructive to remember that one Kirk-Gibson-moment-minus-the-drama doesn't change the fact that he's Chin-Lung-Hu-minus-the-offensive-upside, and that any team he plays on is either really bad or really desperate or both.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Gimme a break. Luis Hernandez sucks.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Yeah, that's probably the more efficient way to put it.

[bmfc1]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/jon_heyman/03/16/mets.second.base/index.html

"Collins has no say whatsoever."

[Guest Edgy DC]

So says "one person familiar with the Mets' situation."

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

It almost seems the change in regimes has resulted in more anonymous blabbermouths running around making half-assed speculative remarks that become provocative hooks in print, doesn't it?

[Guest Edgy DC]

It does, but if he can't come up with any better descriptor than "one person familiar with the Mets' situation" (hi, Steve!), I'm not going to sweat at night worrying about it being anyone with real access to the braintrust.