Expectations of Eleven: Lucas Duda

[Edgy MD]

Lucas C. Duda



Pos: LF/RF/1B (BL/TR)

Born: 2/3/1986 in Los Angeles, California (25 in 2011), four days before the dramatic release of Ross Jones.

Acquired: Drafted by the New York Mets in the 7th round of the 2007 MLB June Amateur Draft.

2010 Stats:

Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	BB-R WAR	FG WAR	Awards
Binghamton	EL (AA)	45	197	161	30	46	17	0	6	34	1	0	29	27	.286	.411	.503	.914		81	2	6	0	1	1
Buffalo	IL (AAA)	70	298	264	44	83	23	2	17	53	0	0	31	57	.314	.389	.610	.999		161	4	2	0	1	3			Team MVP
Total	Minors	115	495	425	74	129	40	2	23	87	1	0	60	84	.304	.398	.569	.967		242	6	8	0	2	4			Sterling Org. PotY
NYM	NL	29	92	84	11	17	6	0	4	13	0	0	6	22	.202	.261	.417	.678	82	35	2	1	0	1	0	0.0	-0.3
Total	All	144	587	509	85	146	46	2	27	100	1	0	66	106	.287	.375	.472	.846		277	8	9	0	3	4

Wifey: None known.

Last Word: Jerry Manuel tipped his hand regarding his own expected fate when he praised Duda's skills, stating that he hoped the team would find a place for the big galoot in 2011, implying that he would have no place in that decision process. Seeing as Jerry would have no reason to lie about a world he wouldn't be in, we can take him at his word that Duda is a genuine MLB talent despite the disastrous start to his career. Amazin Avenue posted an excellent interview with Duda this offseason, in which we learned, among other things, that the mentor who helped him finish strong in September was Carlos Beltran.

Best Day in 2010: Duda had too many good games in the minors to isolate one, but his best two moments on the big club were:

• September 17, when he followed the two-double day that ended his slide with a 2-3 game that included his first big league homer; and
  
• September 25, when his pinch-hit, three-run double off of Chad Durbin provided the winning margin in a 5-2 victory over the Phillies, helping the Mets take the last series of the season between the teams and providing the last ounce of demoralization which undercut the Phils' championship hopes.

Nice cut, Duda!

What do you expect of Lucas Duda in 2011?

[Frayed Knot]

To start 2011 in Buffalo in order to get regular ABs and work on being a less lethal defensive player.

[TransMonk]

He'll thrive in Buffalo until he is called up after Beltran is traded. He'll provide decent pop but struggle in nearly every other area.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Willie Mays had a disastrous start too, I recall.

I think Duda will start the year as the sixth outfielder, meaning he'll be in Buffalo and he'll come to the Mets to fill in during any DL stints for the five guys ahead of him. He'll eventually hit enough to stick, and we'll see more of him in 2012. I predict 50 games with the Mets this year, and about 100 plate appearances.

[Ceetar]

I expect him to have a pretty good year in Buffalo, possibly getting one short 15 game or so stint if someone goes on the DL/is beat up a bit. (Or, he's hitting so well that they DH Beltran for all 9 AL games and bring Duda up)

He'll inevitably be a September callup with a chance to stick as #25 in the playoffs.

I wouldn't rule out him being a key cog in a trade though. the Mets do seem to have a plethera of OF prospects pretty close.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Ceetar wrote: I wouldn't rule out him being a key cog in a trade though.

That's his best shot at making a playoff roster.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I'd agree that Duda could use some seasoning... only, I think he will be what he is, more or less, until he starts declining: a kid with some eye-opening power who hammers righties and walks 10-12 percent of the time. He wasn't much of an athlete in the field at USC, according to scouting reports; he wasn't much of an athlete in the field through every level of the minors, and in front of our very eyes. I don't think an extra three months-- or hell, an extra year-- in colder climes is going to change that. He hits like he could do a reasonable Matt Stairs impression... and he sure fields like it.

Not that I'm complaining, but I think he'd be best served putting up nice stats on our bench or adorning an American League club's.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Yeah, I'm inclined to agree with LWFS here. If it comes down to a matter of going with a noodle bat who fields better, I might prefer Duda, seasoning or no. He looked to me like he knew what he was doing with the stick.

[Edgy MD]

I think one could put too much worrying into the atheltic defense a player on the corner provides. Sluggers are rarer things than ballhawks.

[Frayed Knot]

I think his eventual major league future is at 1B and/or DH

[batmagadanleadoff]

You guys are making Duda sound like Adam Dunn lite.

I would agree.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I like this "series." It'll be fun to review them at the end of the season.

[Edgy MD]

I was thinking I should have asked people to guess the number of WARs each guy would contribute.

[Benjamin Grimm]

That might have inspired me to actually learn what exactly a WAR is!

[Lefty Specialist]

September callup to be showcased for the offseason trade to an AL team.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

OE: Moved to WAR thread.

So what's Duda smelling in that picture up top?

[smg58]

I think Duda will surprise people if he gets the opportunity. I'm just not sure he'll get the opportunity.

[ashie62]

TRADED

[Edgy MD]

You think he'll be traded before the season starts, or during the season?

Or do you mean that you want to see him dealt?

[MFS62]

Duda will become the refill for the half empty glass.
I still think either Pagan or Beltran will get injured again this year.
And Duda will come up and be the almost every day (platooning with Evans) left fielder, with Bay moving to right (something I've mentioned before).
His counting stats will depend on his plate appearances. But I believe his other numbers can be .275/.330/.525.
After that, the crystal ball gets cloudy.
Later

[Lefty Specialist]

I predict at least one player will come up to him and ask him where their car is.

[Guest attgig]

for posterity...
Starts in Buffalo. He'll showcase his power, but not much else, but enough that it draws interest of our front office and many others.

at the end of june, gets called up to DH vs rightines, conveniently before the trading deadline. However, he ultimately flops during that callup, showing little patience, but hits a towering home run that is the farthest hr of the year by a met - his only hit of the road trip.
after that AL roadtrip, gets sent back down, and plays in the AAA all star game, hitting the game winning home run and becoming the all star game mvp.
Once beltran gets traded, he gets called up to play RF and occasionally spell Bay & Davis when they need a day off. It soon becomes apparent that his righty/lefty splits are horrible, and Nick Evans soon joins to become a platoon partner.

Final stats:
46 games
7 HR
45 SO
.209 Ave
.460 Slg

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

O RLY, Adam Rubin? What's your angle?

Lucas Duda has been generating considerable buzz among scouts, who say he is doing a much better job handling and turning on inside fastballs compared with a year or two ago. When Duda was an A-ball player, he would put on power exhibitions in batting practice, but it did not translate into games, because his "long" swing made it difficult to catch up to pitches without committing early. One scout who watched Duda as a youngster in the instructional league said he remembers seeing a similar "inside-out" swing from Adrian Gonzalez as a younger player and never imagined he would become a major league slugger. But the scout watched Gonzalez and begin to turn on those inside pitches rather than flick them the other way, like Duda is now starting to do. Self-confidence is an issue with Duda [Ed. note-- Um... what?], but he may have a serious future with the Mets. Before Carlos Beltran's left knee flared up, Duda was scheduled to split duty between first base and left field at Triple-A Buffalo. Now, he's being exposed to right field as well. And it wouldn't be shocking for him to be the Opening Day right fielder in 2012, if not sooner taking over that position if Beltran's knee woes persist.

Quick, someone tell him he's a lovable person before he starts cutting himself and ruining his trade value.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

The MLB.com beat writer also described Duda as a pessimistic sort, walking around slump-shouldered and not convinced he belongs.

[Edgy MD]

I told you we shouldn't have roomed him with Perez.

[Ceetar]

Nice how Rubin, after one start in RF, projects it wouldn't be shocking to see him there Opening Day 2012.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Figures he would. Dick.

WHAT'S YOUR PLAY, LOBBY-IST?

[metirish]

Rubin saying(guessing) that Duda makes the team assuming Bay goes on the DL.

[TransMonk]

Projecting. Saying. Guessing. Assuming.

How about reporting some facts, Adam?

[metirish]

By Adam Rubin
Sandy Alderson will address the media shortly, but Terry Collins sounded like Jason Bay will open the season on the disabled list.

Collins was already floating alternative lineups during a postgame address. The manager indicated Angel Pagan, initially the No. 2 hitter, may be dropped into the No. 5, or possibly No. 6, position. Josh Thole would presumably slide to the No. 2 hole.

Lucas Duda should make the roster in Bay's absence.