The Race for Third Place

[HahnSolo]

It's a big deal in my house. 7-y.o. little Solo thinks it is important for the Mets to come in third (in his mind that would be good for them after their 2009 finish).

The Marlins have a one-game lead on our heroes in Flushing. So how does the final week shape up for the Mets and Fish?

Florida has 3 playoff-implication games at the struggling Braves, then four at home with the "just end the season" Pirates, while the Mets are home for four with the Brew Crew and three with the Nats.

Here are the pitching matchups.

MON
Fla (Sanabia) at ATL (Hanson)
Mil (Bush) at NYM (Pelfrey)

TUE
Fla (Sanchez) at Atl (Hudson)
Mil (Wolf) at NYM (Niese)

WED
Fla (Miller) at Atl (Lowe)
Mil (Gallardo) at NYM (Dickey)

THU
Pit (Duke) at Fla (Volstad)
Mil (Rogers) at NYM (Gee)

FRI
Pit (Maholm) at Fla (Mendes)
Was (Maya ) at NYM (Misch)

Sat
Pit (Morton) at Fla (Sanabia)
Was (Hernandez) at NYM (Pelfrey)

Sun
TBD

[Guest Edgy DC]

Need to take five of seven to finish at .500.

[MFS62]

There's also a negative race going on, the race for a protected #1 draft pick.
IIRC, teams finishing in the lower half of W-L pct get to keep their #1 pick if they sign a type A free agent. Of course, this would be if they were to have the money to sign one. I'm still not convinced that they wouldn't come up with the money in support of a new front office/ managerial team.

Later

[Frayed Knot]

Teams that finish 16th to 30th in regular season record get their 1st round draft pick protected. Teams finishing in the top 15 do not.

Mets are currently 18th in number of wins and are within a game of both Florida and Oakland.

In order to "unprotect" their pick they'd have to catch both those teams plus at least one of StL, Toronto, or Detroit who are all 4 games ahead.

In cases of tied records the team picking first would be the one with the worse record last season so, since only the Nats, Pirates, Orioles, Royals, Indians & DBacks finished below the Mets last year and all are going to do so again this season, any potential ties would result in the Mets getting the earlier (more protected) pick.

Looks like Pittsburgh, Seattle, Baltimore, KC, and Arizona (probably in that order) for the top five picks next June.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Safely "behind" (12): Phils, Rays, MFYs, Twins, Red Sox, Giants, Reds, Padres, Braves, Rockies, White Sox, Rockies

Safely "ahead" (7): Pirates, Mariners, Orioles, Royals, D'Backs, Indians, Nationals

"Behind" and catchable (5): Tigers, Jays, Cardinals, Marlins, A's

"Ahead" and catchable (5): Dodgers, Angels, Astros, Brewers, Cubs

At least three of those "behind" us need to keep winning-- or afloat-- to secure a guaranteed first-round pick.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I wouldn't sweat it either way.

[bmfc1]

A half-game up! Do it for Hahn Solo's son!

[HahnSolo]

I let him go to sleep to Howie and Wayne. Last night he came running out of his room when Tejada got that hit. He had some spring in his step.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I like that he sees a jump from fourth to third and a ten-game bump as a positive sign. When I was his age, I'd be over the moon for such an improvement.

[Vic Sage]

The Young, The Innocent, & the Citifield Shuffle... 1 step forward, 2 steps back.

[G-Fafif]

HahnSolo wrote: I let him go to sleep to Howie and Wayne. Last night he came running out of his room when Tejada got that hit. He had some spring in his step.

I often go to sleep to Wayne Hagin. But I don't mean to.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I went to bed with Bob Murphy many a night, and while my parents never said anything about it, I'm sure they knew.

It sounds alarming by today's sensibilities, but it's just the way things were back then.

[G-Fafif]

If you went to bed with Murph in Cincinnati, per Howie Rose's recollection earlier today, you'd be under the covers with a man who'd had his hat blocked, his shoes shined and a bowl of Skyline Chili.

So you might want to move to the far side of the bed.

[G-Fafif]

Braves playing spoiler for us, up 4-0 in the fifth on Marlins. Thanks guys!

[G-Fafif]

Braves held on, Mets maintain half-game lead heading into nightcap.

[G-Fafif]

And now we're tied, 77-81, neither the Mets nor Marlins capable of being winners in 2010. Appropriate.

Fish have four with the Bucs at Your Name Here this weekend. That doesn't sound helpful to the cause.

[Frayed Knot]

Best the Mets can now finish in an overall rank of teams is 15th - not the spot you want to be in if FA signings are in your mind as falling one more spot will drop the draft pick you'd lose some 40 spots.
1 Met loss (or rain-out) and/or 1 Detroit win drops them to 16th. Are also tied with both Florida and Oakland and a game in back of the LAAs & the LADs

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

If the forecast holds we'll definitely be rained out tonight. It will solve the Saturday rotation question, but assure a losing record, as opposed to a neither/nor record.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Gambling sucks.

[Centerfield]

Maybe this tight race is the justification for not starting Oliver Perez this last month.

[Ceetar]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: If the forecast holds we'll definitely be rained out tonight. It will solve the Saturday rotation question, but assure a losing record, as opposed to a neither/nor record.

Won't assure a losing record if we have ANOTHER rainout and don't play 2 games ;-) Will assure the protected pick though.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

A Friday rainout (definitely a possibility, weatherman says) could be made up with a Sat or Sunday doubledip. I'm afraid we screwed the pooch in Game 1 yesterday.

[G-Fafif]

All tied up at 78-82. Helping us, Bucs beat the Marlins, winning their 17th road game of the season, tying the 1963 Mets. Up ahead: the 1962 Mets, with 18 road wins.

[G-Fafif]

Marlins do us in on the final day of the season yet again, but at least we can take solace that the Pirates tied the 1963 Mets for fewest road wins in a season, with 17. The Mets may suck, but the Pirates suck in ways we can't even imagine.

[Frayed Knot]

2011 DRAFT ORDER:

1 - PIRATES
2 - MARINERS
3 - DBACKS
4 - ORIOLES
5 - ROYALS
6 - NATIONALS
* 7 - D'BACKS
8 - INDIANS
9 - CUBS
* 10 - PADRES
11 - ASTROS
12 - BREWERS
13 - METS
14 - MARLINS
* 15 - BREWERS
16 - DODGERS
17 - ANGELS
18 - A's
19 - TIGERS
20 - ROCKIES
21 - BLUE JAYS
22 - CARDINALS
23 - WHITE SOX
24 - RED SOX
25 - PADRES
26 - RANGERS
27 - REDS
28 - BRAVES
29 - GIANTS
30 - TWINS
31 - YANKEES
32 - RAYS
33 - PHILLIES

* Compensation pick for failure to sign 2010 1st round pick

I believe that the insertion of the compensation picks means that the first 18 picks - up to an including the Tigers - are protected from being lost through a FA signing
In either case the Mets' 1st rounder is protected.

Edited October 4, 2010 by Guest

[Benjamin Grimm]

So if the Mets sign a Type A free agent this winter, the team that lost the player doesn't get the Mets' pick, but a sandwich pick instead? Is that right?

[Frayed Knot]

If the Mets sign a Type A FA (assuming he's offered arb and all) the team that loses him will get [u:36k9j6kv]the Mets 2nd round pick[/u:36k9j6kv], not the 1st.
So depending on how many sandwich round picks there are that pick will probably be somewhere in the 50s or so.

The team losing the player also gets a sandwich pick - that's independent of whether the team that signs him has a protected pick or not - but that's merely an extra pick and not one they take away from us.



oe: the Mets lost the 57th pick overall to the BoSox last season for signing Jason Bay instead of the 7th pick which was protected.