Oscar Predictions

[Frayed Knot]

Oscar locks really because I'm never wrong at these ... except when I am



Picture: Avatar
Director: Hurt Locker
Actor: Bridges
Actress: Bullock
Supporting Actor: Waltz
Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique

Other Awards: no one cares

[Ceetar]

Arguably, I don't care about any of the awards because they never reflect the decisions most people make when they go to see a movie.

I don't see how Avatar doesn't win best picture though given the hype and production of it.

I wonder if I'll even be able to watch though. silly ABC/etc.

[Guest themetfairy]

Picture - Avatar
Actor - Bridges
Actress - Bullock
Supporting Actor - Tucci
Supporting Actress - Mo'Nique
Director - Cameron
Original Screenplay - Tarantino (Basterds)
Adapted Screenplay - Reigman and Turner (Up in the Air)

[Frayed Knot]

Ceetar wrote: Arguably, I don't care about any of the awards because they never reflect the decisions most people make when they go to see a movie.

I don't particularly care either and most years don't even watch. I'm just throwing this out there as a forecasting exercise while testing my theory about actually seeing the films being a detriment to accurate predictions as it tends to cloud your judgement as to who you think deserves the award, something that usually has little to do with the outcome.

Supporting Actor - Tucci

Y'know, now that I think about it, Tucci could definitely win. I forgot to consider the dead spouse factor - his wife died about a year ago leaving him with three kids.

[Guest themetfairy]

I wasn't even thinking about the dead spouse angle. But he has been so terrific in so many parts over the years, so I think he may get the body of work bump.

[Edgy MD]

Ceetar wrote: Arguably, I don't care about any of the awards because they never reflect the decisions most people make when they go to see a movie.

I think the numbers suggest otherwise.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I'm with FK on the big 6.

As much as I like Tucci-- who's getting to be something of a Jeff Bridges figure, being so consistently good that people take how good he is for granted-- absent an appearance by Zombie Jack Palance, there seems to be no f*cking way that he takes it over Waltz. (And rightfully so... he's funny, terrifying and ultramagnetic onscreen... and dominates a movie that's got more great perfs-- Melanie Laurent, Michael Fassbender-- than you probably remember.)

Original Screenplay--Tarantino (IB)
Adapted Screenplay--Geoffrey Fletcher (Precious)
Animated Feature-- Up
Art Direction--Avatar
Cinematography--The Hurt Locker
Costume Design--The Young Victoria (How Oscar says, "sorry" for not nomming Emily Blunt)
Documentary--Food, Inc.
Documentary (short)--The Last Truck
Editing-- The Hurt Locker
Frenchy Blahblah Foreign Fillum-- The White Ribbon (though A Prophet-- which we just say-- was better)
Makeup-- The Young Victoria
Original Score--Michael Giaccino, Up
Original Song--"The Weary Kind," Crazy Heart

[Ceetar]

I'm just throwing this out there as a forecasting exercise while testing my theory about actually seeing the films being a detriment to accurate predictions

I was refraining from predicting since I hadn't seen them but in that case.. give me a minute.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

For the first time in a while, actually, we've seen virtually all of the major award nominees' films. (All Best Picture noms except A Serious Man, all the acting/writing ones except that, In the Loop, and the Tolstoy one.)

Anyone actually catch ALL the Best Pic nominees?

[Edgy MD]

Two easy rules:

Go for sweeties in the supporting actress roles: funny old ladies or irrespressible cutiepies.

Go for creepy performances in supporting actor roles. Creepazoids who've been bringing it for decades and are probably more or less likeable in general get extra juice.

Like, Gary Busey will never win for playing a creep because it's hard for anybody to think it's a stretch for him.

[Edgy MD]

Guys who've won BSA Oscars being creepy (or at least morally compromised):

2008: Heath Ledger playing a homicidal maniac/terrorist in clown makeup

2007: Javier Bardem playing a cop-strangling hit man, captive-bolt pistol wielding carjacker/killer.

2006: Alan Arkin playing a remorseless hard-drug abusing, grandkid-corrupting, porn-loving grandfather training his grand-daughter in the art of erotic dance.

2005: George Clooney playing a CIA assassin/rogue operative with indiscriminately loose lips.

2003: Tim Robbins playing a child-rape-survivor/killer.

2002: Chris Cooper playing a tragedy-torn orchid thief.

Exceptions in the last decade include Morgan Freeman, Jim Broadbent, and Benicio del Toro.

[Frayed Knot]

Edgy DC wrote: Two easy rules: Go for sweeties in the supporting actress roles: funny old ladies or irrespressible cutiepies. Go for creepy performances in supporting actor roles. Creepazoids who've been bringing it for decades and are probably more or less likeable in general get extra juice. Like, Gary Busey will never win for playing a creep because it's hard for anybody to think it's a stretch for him.

And handicaps roles. Those get loads of votes and wins.

[Guest themetfairy]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Anyone actually catch ALL the Best Pic nominees?

I did.

But I hate the fact that there are ten this year. The pool had way too much chlorine in it.

[Valadius]

Makeup - Star Trek
Visual Effects - Avatar

Those two are absolute locks.

[Edgy MD]

Frayed Knot wrote: Two easy rules: Go for sweeties in the supporting actress roles: funny old ladies or irrespressible cutiepies. Go for creepy performances in supporting actor roles. Creepazoids who've been bringing it for decades and are probably more or less likeable in general get extra juice. Like, Gary Busey will never win for playing a creep because it's hard for anybody to think it's a stretch for him. And handicaps roles. Those get loads of votes and wins.

Handicaps in the leads. Creeps and sweeties in the supporting roles. Guh!

[Valadius]

Valadius wrote: Makeup - Star Trek Visual Effects - Avatar Those two are absolute locks.

Check and check.

[metirish]

This just won't end....FU cablevision for letting this back.

[Guest Carnac the Metnificent]

A: The Hurt Locker




















A: Where does Jose Reyes hang his uniform?

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Y'know, last night was such BS. There were so many other Subjective Viewing Experiences that were clearly so much better than the Subjective Viewing Experience that ended up winning. But, y'know... it's all politics.

[Centerfield]

Frayed Knot wrote: Two easy rules: Go for sweeties in the supporting actress roles: funny old ladies or irrespressible cutiepies. Go for creepy performances in supporting actor roles. Creepazoids who've been bringing it for decades and are probably more or less likeable in general get extra juice. Like, Gary Busey will never win for playing a creep because it's hard for anybody to think it's a stretch for him. And handicaps roles. Those get loads of votes and wins.

Hot actress puts on makeup to uglify herself for a role = Oscar for Best Actress

[Frayed Knot]

Well, sure, because ugly IS a handicap in Hollywood.




Got 5 of the big 6 correct - although there weren't exactly a lot of surprises last night.
The only real question was whether 'Avatar' and 'Hurt Locker' would split the big two or one movie would take both. I bet on split and missed.


- Baldwin & Martin: good but not great, opening was good but then they were pretty sporadic after that.

- pretty lengthy tribute to John Hughes, no? I mean the dude made a lot of movies and certainly carved out his niche in the biz, but if everyone with his resume or better gets that kind of treatment we're talking about a 6 hour show. Meanwhile they missed the first couple of dead guys in the yearly montage because the camera wasn't zoomed in and Farrah was among the missing; not the greatest actress on the planet but worth a mention.

- I like the horror movie 'tribute' (basically an excuse to strive for a younger demographic by getting Kristen Stewart and whats-his-face up there) where they complain that no "horror" flick has won an Oscar since 'The Exorcist" way back in the '70s like before computers and shit -- and then the montage shows several cuts from 'Silence of the Lambs', a winner in the '90s. And, if I'm not mistaken, there was a cut of '[u:zthdwda5]Young[/u:zthdwda5] Frankenstein' in there; yeah, that one had me on the edge of my seat.

[Edgy MD]

John Hughes is a funny case. He apparently hated (or at least resented) Hollywood, but Hollywood loved him. Worth mentioning though is that, in producing Home Alone, he came up with the best grossing comedy ever to that date and, in doing so, struck a vein of box office gold, the reasonalbe-budget family-oriented slapstick/cartoony/pratfall vilolence comedy, that became tired pretty fast, but made a lot of bigwigs very rich men.

Silence of the Lambs wasn't a winner. It was a sweeper, taking Best Picture, Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Director, and Best Screenplay.

[stevejrogers]

Ceetar wrote: Arguably, I don't care about any of the awards because they never reflect the decisions most people make when they go to see a movie.

So, you'd be in favor of Transformers 2: The Revenge Of The Fallen to have been nominated because it made the second most money in the calendar year 2009?

[Guest sharpie]

I got the big ones right, unless you count screenplay which I lost both of and hence lost my office pool.

James Cameron got his appreciation for making wildly popular movies Oscar for Titanic. He wasn't going to get it again, especially for such a CGI-heavy movie. Most of the Academy votes are from actors and movies where actors are secondary don't win Oscars.

[metirish]

I didn't notice it but during the remembrance section last night with the awful James Taylor there were three notable omissions , Bea Arthur , Farrah Fawcet and Ed McMahon , according to NBC News.

[ashie62]

The Hurt Locker was one of the best films I have ever seen. Seeing what it is like to fight an enemy you can't see, and enemy that will be your friend. I was moved...

Avatar is a cartoon

[Edgy MD]

Why (oh, why!) didn't you jerkweeds tell me (beg me!) not to dial up a clip of that John Hughes tribute?

That was... awful! I need to wash my brain.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Somewhere, the writers sat, faces in palms, wearing little holes in their stomachs about a good 80 percent of that Hughes tribute.

"'When you get older, your heart dies...' Ironic words, from a man who... um... never got old."

Also contributing to the irony, AND his never getting much older... his death late last summer, of a heart attack.

[Vic Sage]

well, he didnt get old, but he did get older, and his heart did die well before it attacked him. Just look at the movies he made as he aged... you don't take a pseudonym of Edmund Dantes because you're proud of your work.

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