Feeling a Draft: MLB June First-Years, 2010

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

ProspectInsider editor/ESPN MLB draft honcho Jason Churchill talks to MetsMinorLeagueBlog here. He's high on prep arms and bats... not so on college arms (like Pomerantz or the LSU guys).

Q- How does Josh Sale (HS, OF) run? Does he have the arm to play RF, or will he end up in LF? A- One foot in front of the other, and yes, he has enough arm for RF. Not a slug at all. Q- Is he (Sale) a top 10 worthy guy? A corner OF is not a premium position, but he does have a premium bat. A- For me, yes. I don�t like the �athlete� picks at all � ever � and I�m not fond of a single college starter for the Top 10. Q- I agree, College arms are No.3 guys at best. So you like Sale over Manny Machado (HS, SS)? How many position players do you have in top 10? A- Machado isn�t just an athlete. He can play SS, and hit some. Machado, Sale, Zach Cox (U. of Arkansas, 3B)� that�s probably it for position players. Q- Well besides the obvious Bryce Harper. So you have those 4 (Machado, Sale, Cox, Harper) and 6 prep arms in your top 10? A- For me, yes. But at least two college SP will be taken top 10. All the pre-draft deal/signability picks will dictate. Taillon, Whitson, Covey, Sanchez, Cole, Machado, Harper, Cox, and maybe instead of a 6th prep arm, Grandal or Brentz. Q- I love Aaron Sanchez (HS, P) as well. Not much love for him that high, but he is athletic and has a live arm. Why not as much hype with him? A- Not as projectable as others, doesn�t have the right-now stuff the top three. He could go as high as 10. An area guy I know down there says he doesn�t know if Sanchez is among the top 10-15 in the class, but he�d be a worthy top 10 pick. Q- Who is gonna have signability issues. Like last year with Tyler Maztek and Matt Purke? A- Not sure. None to that level, it seems, or at least I haven�t heard the early rumors like we did a year ago. Q- I appreciate your time. Thanks for answering my questions. A- Sure.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Q- I appreciate your time. Thanks for answering my questions. A- Sure.

I always love it when Q&As include this line, as if to be complete. Why not start it with:

A- Hello? Q- Hello, is this Jason Churchill, ESPN Draft Honco? A- Yes Q- Hi, this is Mets Minor League Blog A- Hi. Q- Can we talk? A- Sure

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

That's adorable.

MetsMinorLeagueBlog.com-- Toby Hyde and his minions do increasingly good work-- follows the above with a look at prep 3B/OF Josh Sale.

PROS:

-- Build ("linebacker" shoulders and frame, muscular, strong core)
-- Power to all fields, with compact swing
-- Plus arm
-- Nice lefty power stroke
-- Reputed hard worker, good-makeup guy
-- Did I mention the power? The bat?

You know how the pundits, when they talk about special prospects, talk about the sound of the "ball coming off of [the] bat?" Go to the blog, and watch the first video. Then watch the second video.

[Frayed Knot]

John Sickels top 15 draft eligibles.
Note that this isn't his prediction of how the draft will go just that it's his current opinion of the best players available.

1) Bryce Harper, C, College of Southern Nevada
2) Jameson Taillon, RHP, The Woodlands, Texas, HS
3) Manny Machado, SS, Brito Private HS, Hialeah, Florida
4) Drew Pomeranz, LHP, University of Mississippi
5) Yasmani Grandal, C, University of Miami-Florida
6) Chris Sale, LHP, Florida Gulf Coast University
7) Dylan Covey, RHP, Maranatha HS, Pasadena, California
8) Stetson Allie, RHP, St. Edward HS, Olmstead Falls, Ohio
9) Karsten Whitson, RHP, Chipley HS, Florida
10) Zach Cox, 3B, University of Arkansas
11) Christian Colon, SS, Cal State Fullerton
12) A.J. Cole, RHP, Oviedo HS, Florida
13) Deck McGuire, RHP, Georgia Tech
14) Brandon Workman, RHP, University of Texas


more

[seawolf17]

"Stetson"? "Deck"?

Parents are stupid.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

A possible bonus-demands dropper to the Mets at 7, Manny Machado looks intriguing. Actually, in terms of superficialities (Miami-area HS shortstop with eye-popping talent), build (6'3"ish, 190-200 lbs.), and skills package (good at everything, great instincts/gracefulness making up for lack of lateral quickness on defense, solid plate judgement), he looks a little like Baby A-Rod, as MLB's draft previews point out:

Hitting ability: Machado is swinging the bat very well, with authority. He led Team USA in hitting last summer Power: He has the chance to have good power. Running speed: He's run well in the past, though he might slow down as he matures. Base running: He's fine on the basepaths. Arm strength: He's got plenty of arm for his position. Fielding: He makes the plays he can get to. Range: This is the question, whether he'll have enough range to stay at shortstop as he gets bigger and stronger. Physical Description: A big, strong athletic high school shortstop in the Miami area, Machado obviously draws young Alex Rodriguez comparisons. Medical Update: Healthy. Strengths: Big, strong, looks the part, plenty of tools, especially with the bat. Weaknesses: Already pretty big, he may not be able to stay at shortstop in the long-term. Summary: Machado entered the season as the top high school position player and has done nothing to diminish that evaluation. Big and athletic, he can do just about everything on the baseball field, with the ability to hit for plenty of average and some power as he matures. He's got more than enough arm to play shortstop and is fine there for now, though there is some concern he'll outgrow the position. Even if he does, he'd be just fine at third, both in terms of handling the position defensively and providing the kind of offense teams look for at the hot corner. Regardless of his position, Machado is primed to be one of the earliest names taken off the board in June.

ADDITIONAL SCOUTING REPORTS:

http://pnrscouting.com/scoutingreports_2010_machadoma.html

[Frayed Knot]

Machado is one of the players "sources say" the Mets would go over-slot to sign if they fell to #7. The others are Harper and Tallion but there's much less chance of either of those happening.



BA came out with their list of the Top-200 draft eligibles - divided between pitchers & hitters.

2) Jameson Taillon, rhp, The Woodlands (Texas) HS -- Area scouts say he's a nicer version of Josh Beckett.

4) Drew Pomeranz, lhp, Mississippi -- Better than Andrew Miller at a similar stage, especially when his breaking ball is on.

5) Chris Sale, lhp, Florida Gulf Coast -- Skinny as a rail but throws two plus pitches for strikes

7) Deck McGuire, rhp, Georgia Tech -- Steadiest performer among top college RHPs

8) Stetson Allie, rhp, St. Edward HS, Lakewood, Ohio -- His pure stuff rivals Jameson Taillon's as the best in this draft.



1) Bryce Harper, c, JC of Southern Nevada -- Entered season with high expectations and surpassed them all.

3) Manny Machado, ss, Brito Miami Private HS -- Emerging power for a player who should stick at shortstop.

6) Zack Cox, 3b, Arkansas -- The best pure hitter and top sophomore-eligible in the draft.

9) Christian Colon, ss, Cal State Fullerton -- Safe college bat emerged from slow start to lead Big West in HR.

10) Josh Sale, of, Bishop Blanchet HS, Seattle -- Physical beast limited to corner outfield, but projects as a .280 hitter with 30 HR power

11) Michael Choice, of, Texas-Arlington -- Has power, patience and a chance to play center field

12) Kaleb Cowart, rhp/3b, Cook HS, Adel, Ga. -- Would go in first two rounds as 3B, first-round arm, tough to sign

13) Yasmani Grandal, c, Miami -- ACC Player of the Year should be first catcher picked

[Guest Edgy DC]

Frayed Knot wrote: 13) Yasmani Grandal, c, Miami -- ACC Player of the Year should be first catcher picked

Is Harper not considered seriously as a catcher? I didn't think that was true. Do they mean first college(-aged) catcher?

[Frayed Knot]

They probably meant college catcher, or maybe "pure" catcher seeing as how the debate as to whether Harper will remain one is still up in the air. Many see him as a RF.

I included the list down as far as Gradal because he's a guy that's getting a lot of pub lately, is higher on other lists, and I think could be a NYM pick if one of 'the big three' don't drop.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

2) Jameson Taillon, rhp, The Woodlands (Texas) HS -- Area scouts say he's a nicer version of Josh Beckett.

Like, more velocity, or a better build? Or is he just more likely to send thank-you notes after receiving gifts?

Grandal's a switch-hitter, loaded with raw power from both sides, and has an improving defensive rep. The MLB draft report on him, though, is a masterpiece of damnation-via-faint-praise. To wit:

Arm strength: His pure grade would be just okay, and his release times aren't great, but he's fairly accurate. Fielding: He's been strong defensively in the past but doesn't always move his feet well. Physical Description: Grandal is a big, strong, physical backstop, kind of like a Damon Berryhill type.

That last one... is amazing. (Emphasis mine.)

[bmfc1]

It's a mock:

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/05/26/mlb-mock-draft-2-0-the-full-first-round/?sms_ss=twitter

They have the Mets drafting Bruce Berenyi, or something like that.

[bmfc1]

Mookie will represent the Mets at the draft:

http://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4400:mlb-announces-club-reps-at-2010-first-year-player-draft&catid=30:mlb-news&Itemid=42

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

It's a mock: http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/05/26/mlb-mock-draft-2-0-the-full-first-round/?sms_ss=twitter They have the Mets drafting Bruce Berenyi, or something like that.

Bryce Brentz.

But this tool has the Mets choosing GT RHP Deck McGuire
http://www.mlbbonusbaby.com/2010/5/24/1484908/mock-draft-7-first-round#storyjump

And this douchetaster has the Mets taking C Yasmani Grandal
http://www.mymlbdraft.com/MLB-Mock-Draft-2010

While this vajingo says HS RHP Karsten Whitson
http://baseballdraftreport.com/2010/05/17/mlb-mock-draft-2-0/

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Another vote for McGuire
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100526&content_id=10448720

Here's a dickcheese for Christian Colon, Cal State SS:
http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=4742

[Guest Edgy DC]

I answered on online ad offering me a more Christian colon in five easy steps.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Edgy DC wrote: I answered on online ad offering me a more Christian colon in five easy steps.

I'm guessing that the remedy involves hole-y water.

[Frayed Knot]

I assume rinsing with holy water is one of those steps.



The problem with mock drafts - aside from the fact that they're mock drafts - is that the ones making them fancy themselves as being able to get into the heads of each team and therefore pick not just the next best player but the one who "fits" that team's philosophy & attitude. With the Mets that tends to mean they point to the guy they think will come cheap - as if the standard criticism of them not taking chances and spending in later rounds applies to round 1 as well. I maintain that the Mets show no particular pattern when it comes to top choices. They've plucked college pitchers (Humber, Pelfrey); college bats (Davis, Reese), HS pitchers (Kazmir) and HS bats (Milledge, Wright) and none fall into the category of a "reaching over-draft" in order to save on bonus demands.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I got the idea that Milledge was a higher on many boards but fell to the Mets at least in part for perceived bonus demands.

Maybe it was:

15% concerns over wood-bat adjustments
35% concerns over perceived bonus demands
50% concerns over perceived behavioral issues

[Frayed Knot]

Kazmir definitely fell to the Mets over perceived bonus demands that turned out to never materialize (Kaz, unlike Milledge, had a full scholarship in hand).
But the label that's being hung on the Mets is quite the opposite. Many predict potential NYM picks as if they're in the habit of "over-drafting" or choosing someone not worthy of the slot they've got while leaving known better players on the board for fear of getting into a protracted and expensive negotiation.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I don't know about overdrafting, but you could make a solid argument that Davis, Havens, Holt and Kunz-- good, not great college prospects all (well, maybe not Kunz)-- were "safe," slotting-friendly picks.

(On another note, you could also make an argument that by not signing three of their top 6 picks-- or, if you want to flip it, by selecting guys they weren't sure about signing... and then waiting until late in the game to make offers-- they made a near-complete waste of last year's draft.)

[Guest Edgy DC]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: (On another note, you could also make an argument that by not signing three of their top 6 picks--

I got Magnifico and Buchanan. Who else did they not sign?

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Glenn. (3 out of 9, I meant. Flerg.)

[Guest Edgy DC]

I think they signed him deadline day. According to The Baseball Cube, he signed for $150,000 which was more than fellow catcher John Freeman got the round before.

[Frayed Knot]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: I don't know about overdrafting, but you could make a solid argument that Davis, Havens, Holt and Kunz-- good, not great college prospects all (well, maybe not Kunz)-- were "safe," slotting-friendly picks.

"Safe, slotting-friendly picks" to me implies that there were other obvious picks still left on the board at the time of those choices which I don't believe was the case. Usually, unless some Boras-attached college kid or some big stud HSer with a scholarship in his hand are falling through the 1st round on account of announcing to the world that it'll take a HUGE number to get them to sign, most of what you're going to get at #s 18, 22, 33 & 42 are either the "good, not great, college prospects" or else HS guys a cut lower than those taken in top-10 territory who might have higher ceilings than their older counterparts but are also more hit or miss. And, again, it's not like the Mets haven't done that too with their top selections: Kazmir, Milledge, Wright

My larger point being that while I'm not here to defend every NYM draft pick (hell, if each draft was re-done a mere 6-9 months later the results would be wildly different for almost any team) and where I DO believe that where they've been far too quick to adhere to Master Bud's 'slotting system' is in the later round where some still-raw teenager can be lured out of a trip to university with some extra bucks that might pay off down the road somewhere, that transferring that reluctance to pay to the first round isn't an accurate charge.

[MFS62]

Rivals.com (via Yahoo Sports) is predicting the Mets will take a kid named Covey, a righthanded high school pitcher from Pasadena California.

Later

[Guest Edgy DC]

A follower of the seven habits of highly successful pitchers.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Rivals.com (via Yahoo Sports) is predicting the Mets will take a kid named Covey, a righthanded high school pitcher from Pasadena California. Later

Alex Nelson's scouting report on the kid for Amazin' Avenue (with YouTube video!) is maybe the best primer, though there are other places to look.

In short: mechanically sound (compact, low-stress motion from 3/4 armslot), decently-polished prep hurler; good fastball velocity/movement, and some interesting secondary stuff (including above-average curve and close-to-MLB-averagechange). Some consistency issues with velocity and command, and his frame-- though decently-sized-- is filled out, so he's about what he's going to be, physically (unlike Karsten Whitson or, say, whippet-skinny/whip-armed A.J. Cole).

Intriguingly polished, though, according to this and other reports. On principle, I'd still rather they go with a bat this high, like Brentz or Cox... or, if you're feeling lucky, Josh Sale. But he's not a terrible option by any means... and his stock seems to be sliding slightly due to the consistency issues, so maybe he'll prove a more-signable stripe of first-round prep fish.

[Guest Edgy DC]

High school pitchers are frightening enough without mysterious consistency issues, no?

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

These things come and go in waves, to be sure. Keith Law and Jon Heyman both have linked the Mets with UNC righty Matt Harvey of late.

Scouting reports here and here and here.

PROS:
-- Consensus best fastball in the draft among college pitchers (92-96, topping at 97, with good movement); produces nice ground-ball numbers with it (64% in college)
-- Big, brickhouse frame (6'4"/225), with powerful lower-half
-- Hard, biting, occasional plus slider and okay change-up with good potential
-- Good durability so far in college career

CONS:
-- Control issues in past; poor before this year, now much better but still not an asset
-- Off-speed stuff largely undeveloped/suboptimal for a college pitcher (with plus curve that HAD been there when he was a prep arm now missing)
-- Slow tempo to delivery, with low arm-separation point at his motion's beginning lead to some repeatability issues (and may help explain the control problems)

Seems a little like Poor Man's Pelfrey (with the command being significantly iffier) to me. Hell, I think I'd rather have Covey... and I'm none too fond of Covey.

[bmfc1]

In the discussion of pitcher Dylan Covey:

Edgy DC wrote: A follower of the seven habits of highly successful pitchers.

Look what you did there.